Effects of the Paris Agreement on the energy system of Germany - When do we achieve a global Carbon neutrality – analysis with TIAM-IER
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The impact of the Paris Agreement on German energy system – When do we achieve the net zero target in Germany
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Effects of the Paris Agreement on the energy system of Germany - When do we achieve a global Carbon neutrality – analysis with TIAM-IER
- 1. ETSAP WS Newcastle, 9.12.2019 IER Institut für Energiewirtschaft und Rationelle Energieanwendungen The impact of the Paris Agreement on German energy system – When do we achieve the net zero target in Germany Markus Blesl; Benedikt Hümmer
- 2. Motivation • The Paris Agreement will in the long term determinate the German GHG reduction target or budget • Analysis impact and possibilities of Germany to benefit from cost efficient GHG reduction measures in other world regions. • Under which circumstance can, when and how achieved a net zero emission level in Germany • Describe in a techno economical way of energy, GHG and resource balance possibilities through the trade with other regions. 9.12.2019Universität Stuttgart 2
- 3. 9.12.2019IER Universität Stuttgart 3 Current discussion related GHG reduction targets in Germany Year Sector 2030 2050 Buildings -65% -94% Transport -40% -90% Industry -49% -81% Agriculture -34% -89% • Klimaschutzplan 2050 (Climate protection plan) with emission reduction targets compared to 1990 ("sector targets") • For the transformation sector (public electricity and heat generation, refineries, other transformation), the achievement of the sector target is not a binding requirement.
- 4. TIAM-IER • Based on ETSAP TIAM • structure: • 16 world regions (Germany as an separate region) • up to 42 energy service demands per region • 2019 update: • Base year 2005 2015 (‚IEA World Energy Balances‘) • Update region specific emission factors to hit the emission balance 2015 • Update the biomass potential and conversion chain • Update the heating market • 12 time slices (as an intermediate step) Universität Stuttgart 4
- 5. Scenario definition • Base: • Minimum use of renewables based on WEO2018 • Taking into account the current situation related coal fired plants plants till 2040 • 2DS: • Carbon Budget starting 2020: 1140 Gt • CCS after 2030 commercial available • Minimum use of renewables and fossil-decline according to Base • B2DS: • Carbon Budget starting 2020: 600 Gt • CCS after 2030 commercial available • Minimum use of renewables and fossil-decline according to Base 9.12.2019Universität Stuttgart 5
- 6. Scenario comparison CO2 Emission World 9.12.2019Universität Stuttgart 6 • Till 2100 will be still CO2 emissions coming from the industry (process emissions) without material cahnces • The different between the Budget scenarios is in the middle period and not at the end of the century • It might be still economical to have some emissions for example in the Electricity sector 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 BASE BASE 2DS B2DS BASE 2DS B2DS BASE 2DS B2DS BASE 2DS B2DS BASE 2DS B2DS BASE 2DS B2DS BASE 2DS B2DS CTS BASE 2DS B2DS CTS 2015 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 Gt Upstream Transport Residential Industry Electricity Commercial Agriculture
- 7. -15000 -10000 -5000 0 5000 10000 15000 20000 25000 30000 35000 BASE BASE 2DS B2DS BASE 2DS B2DS BASE 2DS B2DS BASE 2DS B2DS BASE 2DS B2DS BASE 2DS B2DS BASE 2DS B2DS BASE 2DS B2DS BASE 2DS B2DS 2015 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100 CO2(Gt) CO2 produced CO2 sequestrated CO2_net Scenario comparison net CO2 Emission balance World • In the 1.5 °C scenario we already achieve in 2050 net zero emissions. • This is based on negative emissions from BECCS • In the long term after 2080 also the 2°C scenario have net zero emissions.
- 8. Scenario comparison net CO2 Emission balance Germany 9.12.2019Universität Stuttgart 8 -500 -300 -100 100 300 500 700 BASE BASE 2DS B2DS BASE 2DS B2DS BASE 2DS B2DS BASE 2DS B2DS BASE 2DS B2DS BASE 2DS B2DS BASE 2DS B2DS BASE 2DS B2DS BASE 2DS B2DS 2015 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100 CO2(Gt) CO2 produced CO2 sequestrated CO2_net • In the 1.5 °C scenario Germany has to achieve in 2050 net negative emissions. • In 2°C scenario Germany has more or less a linear reduction till 2080 to achieve net zero emissions. • But do we have the acceptance for CCS, the quantity of Biomass, the …?
- 9. 9.12.2019Universität Stuttgart 9 1.5 °C scenario CO2 Emission balance Germany taking into account acceptance and challenges • Without any additional measures we get problems to achieve the net zero emissions • The main critical path seems to be the possibility to use CCS • It causes additional delay’s in achieving the climate target. • Additional acceptance problems might coming up – for example for onshore wind -500 -300 -100 100 300 500 700 2015 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100 CO2(Gt) CO2 sequestrated Industry Recource Industry Efficiency fail Agriculture Biomass CO2 produced CO2 CCS aceptance CO2_net CO2_net_neg
- 10. Conclusion and outlook • The GHG target of an Country might depend very much from the overall target and the additional politics but also the technology development and the acceptance of the use • The energy system analysis have to take more and more social circumstances into account. It isn’t any more only a question of economically technology availability it is for example also a question of life style… • To take into account the acceptance of a technology mix in a scenario it‘s necessary to include additional indicators like land use, resource consumption and efficiency but also social behavior … 9.12.2019Universität Stuttgart 10