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Carlos ANDRADE, Sandrine Selosse, Nadia Maïzi
17 June 2021
ASSESS THE TRANSITION TO A CIRCULAR
ECONOMY FOR THE ENERGY SYSTEM:
o
LONG-TERM ANALYSIS OF THE CASE OF THE
SOUTH-EST REGION OF FRANCE
Context
• Objective:Analyze, through a prospective model, the options for low-carbon
energy transition and circular economy in the SOUTH PACA region
• Main questions:
– Integrate circular economy issues into the region’s energy system long-term model
– Evaluate the region's energy-climate policies
• How to transform the various national guiding documents into regional energy policies?
• Where and how to develop renewable energy potentials?
• How the region can contribute to national decarbonisation goals?
2
Model structure
3
Paca
10 zones
Departments-zones
• Electricity production by sector
• Consumption by sector of activity and by
type of demand (housing, transport,
industry, agriculture)
• Potentials of renewable energies
PACA
• Power and gas networks
• Energy exchange hub
• Aviation consomption
• Transport consumption (not coming from
the PACA region: 15% of the consumption of
private vehicles; 22% of heavy goods vehicles)
• Refinery
TIMES SUD PACA model
4
The perspective of the circular energy system for the SUD PACA
region
5
A circular energy system wants to dissociate environmental impact from energy system’s activity by redesigning the
way of consuming, and producing, through the application of the 4 R's namely "reduce, reuse, recycle and recover",
always seeking to minimize the consumption of energy resources, and looking towards producing zero waste and
pollution, with a systemic approach at the moment of its implementation.
Scenarios – the demand
6
0.00
10.00
20.00
30.00
40.00
50.00
2017 2018 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
PJ
Residential
Heating Cooking Air conditioning
Water heating Other electrique Lighting
Other energy uses Washing Cold
0
50
100
150
200
2017 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
PJ
Commercial
Other electrique Other energy uses Heating
Cooling Cooking Water heating
Lighting Total général
0.00
10.00
20.00
30.00
40.00
50.00
60.00
2017 2020 2030 2040 2050
PJ
/
Mt
Industry
Other Chemical Plastic Waste
Glass H Glass Extraction Electro M.
Other metals Food & B Cement Lime
Construciton Paper H Paper L Steel
Aluminium
-
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
60,000
2017 2020 2025 2030 2040 2050
Passenger
km
/
tons
km
Transport
Cars Bus Freight Utility vehicles Moto
The scenarios
• Reference :This scenario aims to explore the evolution of the energy system
according to trends, which take into account policies established in the region and
France before the base year
• Sraddet : How the policies proposed by the SUD PACA region will shift the
development of the regional energy system
• Circular economy : Evaluate how integrating a circular economy perspective can
shift the development of the energy system of the SUD PACA region
7
8
Scenarios - Reference scenario: assumptions for the production sector
• Follows trends from past years for energy production and
consumption
• Electricity from the French electricity grid is reduced by
15% in 2050
• Gas from the gas network can increase by 10% in 2050
• The region can use 21 PJ (20% of gas consumption in 2017)
of bio methane from the French gas network in 2050
• Increased use of gas and electricity in the transport sector
• 50% mobilization of buildings renovation potentials
• Important use of heat recovery technologies in the habitat
sector
• Bicycles can cover up to 10% of mobility demand
PJ Energy 2017
Annual
growth
2050
Electricity
Biogas 0.84 1.00% 4.90
Biomass 1.41 0.50% 2.75
Wind 0.42 0.00% 0.81
Hydro 28.65 0.10% 35.00
Waste 1.53 0.00% 2.30
Solar 5.51 8.00% 127.97
Fossil 35.54 0.00% 35.54
Thermal
Biomass 9.92 1.00% 14.43
Heat pumps 17.00 5% 32.68
Heat
Network
1.43 2.00% 5.22
Solar
thermal
0.64 1.00% 0.88
Fossil 2.32 0.00% 2.32
Electrique 209.27
Thermal 57.18
9
Scenarios – SRADDET: supply assumptions
Production (PJ) 2017 2020 2025 2030 2050
Electricity
Biomass 1.41 2.88 4.42 4.42 4.42
Wind 0.42 0.99 2.21 2.78 5.40
Hydro 28.65 29.12 31.02 31.02 33.20
Solar (ground) 5.51 6.27 8.90 6.57 29.47
Solar (rooftop) - 1.30 6.47 20.47 78.57
Thermal
Biomass 9.92 6.67 3.79 4.79 9.38
Methanization 1.73 1.73 2.19 3.60 7.39
Gasification - 0.00 2.06 3.60 7.60
Solar (thermal) 0.62 0.62 1.74 2.21 4.47
TOTAL 48.27 49.57 62.80 79.45 179.90
SRADDET’s Energy production objectives
• No new fossil power plants
• Electricity from the French electricity grid is
reduced by 50% in 2050
• Gas from the gas network can increase by 10% in
2050
• Increased use of biogas and biomethane
• 100% mobilization of buildings renovation potentials
• Increased use of gas and electricity in the transport
sector
• Higher use of heat recovery technologies in the
habitat sector
• Bicycles can cover up to 15% of mobility demand
• Modal share of private vehicles from 1.2 to 1.35
Regional hydrogen plan
2027 2032
Freight transport units 100 630
Utilitary vehicles units 540 2280
Buses units 86 260
H2 production tH2/year 16000 28800
Injection into the
gas network
tH2/year 3000 5400
Scenarios – Circular energy system
10
Proposed objectives
100% Industrial waste heat
100% Waste water heat
100% Sludge
100% Municipal, agriculture and green waste
100% Buildings renovation
15% CCU
Personnes par véhicule
particulier
1.70 People by car
Modal shift
Personal mobility vehicles can cover up to 17% of cars
mobility demand and buses can cover up to 7% in 2050
Air heat pumps 15% more than in the reference scenario
Tidal energy 3 GW
Wind 3 times the reference scenario
No new fossil power plants
Includes the regional hydrogen plan
!
• Maximize the reuse of resources that
otherwise would have been thrown away
• Prioritize the recovery of resources in
order to increase the efficiency of the
system
• Reduce emissions
• Reuse products by giving them a second
life
• Integrate a shift in behavior in terms of
how energy is consumed
ktep
11
Results – Regional electricity production
• In 2050 the use of fossil fuels represent 22% of electricity production in the reference scenario, while they account for less
than 1% in the SR and CE scenario
• Total power production in 2050 in the CE scenario is the lowest among the studied scenario as it presents a lower electricity
demand
• The electricity production achieved in 2050 in the SR scenario complies with a little bit more than 50% of the objectives
stablished in the SRADDET
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
2017 2030 2050 2030 2050 2030 2050
Ref EC SR
PJ
Biogas Coal Hydraulic Natural Gas Ocean Oil products Other Solar ground Solar roof Wind Wood
83 %
103 %
35 %
Results – Electricity production by zone
12
AHP: Alpes-de-Haute-Provence
AM: Alpes-Maritimes
BDR: Bouches-du-Rhône
HA: Hautes-Alpes
VAR: Var
VAUC: Vaucluse
• Electricity production is concentrated in the BDR1 in the reference and SR scenario while it is more distributed among the territories in the
CE scenario
• Wind production is developed mainly in the BDR1, while tidal energy is mostly used in theVAR1 zone
• Hydroelectricity is developed mainly in theVAUC zone
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
2017 2050 2050 2050 2017 2050 2050 2050 2017 2050 2050 2050 2017 2050 2050 2050 2017 2050 2050 2050 2017 2050 2050 2050 2017 2050 2050 2050 2017 2050 2050 2050 2017 2050 2050 2050
REF SR EC REF SR EC REF SR EC REF SR EC REF SR EC REF SR EC REF SR EC REF SR EC REF SR EC
AHP AM1 AM2 BDR1 BDR2 HA VAR1 VAR2 VAUC
PJ
Biogas Coal Hydraulic Natural Gas Ocean Oil products Other Solar ground Solar roof Wind Wood
Electricity storage
13
• Hydro storage and batteries have been used to store electricity
• Hydro storage has been developed mainly in theAHP zone
• Batteries have been used mostly in high consuming ares as they have been used to store electricity from roof photovoltaic
panels
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
2025 2030 2040 2050
PJ
REF Elc prod SR Elc prod EC Elc prod
REF Storage SR Storage EC Storage
Final energy consumption
14
Housing
Industry
Transport
2017 Reference SRADDET Circular Economy
190 PJ
137 PJ
179 PJ
157 PJ
176 PJ 158 PJ
164 PJ 161 PJ
164 PJ
156 PJ 130 PJ
138 PJ
Total CO2 emissions
15
0
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
30000
35000
40000
2017 2018 2020 2025 2030 2040 2050
kt
CE SR REF
-45%
-36%
-24%
Conclusion
• The region is in the path towards the decarbonization of its energy system, with the
decrease of fossil fuels consumption and the development of clean technologies.
• The recovery of waste heat should be prioritize as it has proven to have a great potential
to decarbonize the habitat sector, increasing also the efficiency of the whole system.
• The use of batteries to store roof PV production is key to allow a greater development of
the technology
• It is required higher efforts to allow the introduction of clean alternative energies into
the transport sector. Supporting the development of an hydrogen market seems key to
decarbonize this sector.
• Implementing a CE perspective in the development of an energy system can allow
greater environmental results.
16
THANKS FOR YOUR ATTENTION
Carlos ANDRADE
carlos.andrade@mines-paristech.fr
PhD student
MINES ParisTech,PSL Research University,Center for Applied Mathematics
Thesis co-financed by ADEME and the SUD Provence-Alpes-Côte d'Azur Region and in partnership with Schneider Electric
Carlos ANDRADE
MINES ParisTech, PSL Research University
Center for Applied Mathematics, Sophia Antipolis
17

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Assess the transition to a circular economy for the energy system: Long-term analysis of the case of the South-Est region of France

  • 1. Carlos ANDRADE, Sandrine Selosse, Nadia Maïzi 17 June 2021 ASSESS THE TRANSITION TO A CIRCULAR ECONOMY FOR THE ENERGY SYSTEM: o LONG-TERM ANALYSIS OF THE CASE OF THE SOUTH-EST REGION OF FRANCE
  • 2. Context • Objective:Analyze, through a prospective model, the options for low-carbon energy transition and circular economy in the SOUTH PACA region • Main questions: – Integrate circular economy issues into the region’s energy system long-term model – Evaluate the region's energy-climate policies • How to transform the various national guiding documents into regional energy policies? • Where and how to develop renewable energy potentials? • How the region can contribute to national decarbonisation goals? 2
  • 3. Model structure 3 Paca 10 zones Departments-zones • Electricity production by sector • Consumption by sector of activity and by type of demand (housing, transport, industry, agriculture) • Potentials of renewable energies PACA • Power and gas networks • Energy exchange hub • Aviation consomption • Transport consumption (not coming from the PACA region: 15% of the consumption of private vehicles; 22% of heavy goods vehicles) • Refinery
  • 4. TIMES SUD PACA model 4
  • 5. The perspective of the circular energy system for the SUD PACA region 5 A circular energy system wants to dissociate environmental impact from energy system’s activity by redesigning the way of consuming, and producing, through the application of the 4 R's namely "reduce, reuse, recycle and recover", always seeking to minimize the consumption of energy resources, and looking towards producing zero waste and pollution, with a systemic approach at the moment of its implementation.
  • 6. Scenarios – the demand 6 0.00 10.00 20.00 30.00 40.00 50.00 2017 2018 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 PJ Residential Heating Cooking Air conditioning Water heating Other electrique Lighting Other energy uses Washing Cold 0 50 100 150 200 2017 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 PJ Commercial Other electrique Other energy uses Heating Cooling Cooking Water heating Lighting Total général 0.00 10.00 20.00 30.00 40.00 50.00 60.00 2017 2020 2030 2040 2050 PJ / Mt Industry Other Chemical Plastic Waste Glass H Glass Extraction Electro M. Other metals Food & B Cement Lime Construciton Paper H Paper L Steel Aluminium - 10,000 20,000 30,000 40,000 50,000 60,000 2017 2020 2025 2030 2040 2050 Passenger km / tons km Transport Cars Bus Freight Utility vehicles Moto
  • 7. The scenarios • Reference :This scenario aims to explore the evolution of the energy system according to trends, which take into account policies established in the region and France before the base year • Sraddet : How the policies proposed by the SUD PACA region will shift the development of the regional energy system • Circular economy : Evaluate how integrating a circular economy perspective can shift the development of the energy system of the SUD PACA region 7
  • 8. 8 Scenarios - Reference scenario: assumptions for the production sector • Follows trends from past years for energy production and consumption • Electricity from the French electricity grid is reduced by 15% in 2050 • Gas from the gas network can increase by 10% in 2050 • The region can use 21 PJ (20% of gas consumption in 2017) of bio methane from the French gas network in 2050 • Increased use of gas and electricity in the transport sector • 50% mobilization of buildings renovation potentials • Important use of heat recovery technologies in the habitat sector • Bicycles can cover up to 10% of mobility demand PJ Energy 2017 Annual growth 2050 Electricity Biogas 0.84 1.00% 4.90 Biomass 1.41 0.50% 2.75 Wind 0.42 0.00% 0.81 Hydro 28.65 0.10% 35.00 Waste 1.53 0.00% 2.30 Solar 5.51 8.00% 127.97 Fossil 35.54 0.00% 35.54 Thermal Biomass 9.92 1.00% 14.43 Heat pumps 17.00 5% 32.68 Heat Network 1.43 2.00% 5.22 Solar thermal 0.64 1.00% 0.88 Fossil 2.32 0.00% 2.32 Electrique 209.27 Thermal 57.18
  • 9. 9 Scenarios – SRADDET: supply assumptions Production (PJ) 2017 2020 2025 2030 2050 Electricity Biomass 1.41 2.88 4.42 4.42 4.42 Wind 0.42 0.99 2.21 2.78 5.40 Hydro 28.65 29.12 31.02 31.02 33.20 Solar (ground) 5.51 6.27 8.90 6.57 29.47 Solar (rooftop) - 1.30 6.47 20.47 78.57 Thermal Biomass 9.92 6.67 3.79 4.79 9.38 Methanization 1.73 1.73 2.19 3.60 7.39 Gasification - 0.00 2.06 3.60 7.60 Solar (thermal) 0.62 0.62 1.74 2.21 4.47 TOTAL 48.27 49.57 62.80 79.45 179.90 SRADDET’s Energy production objectives • No new fossil power plants • Electricity from the French electricity grid is reduced by 50% in 2050 • Gas from the gas network can increase by 10% in 2050 • Increased use of biogas and biomethane • 100% mobilization of buildings renovation potentials • Increased use of gas and electricity in the transport sector • Higher use of heat recovery technologies in the habitat sector • Bicycles can cover up to 15% of mobility demand • Modal share of private vehicles from 1.2 to 1.35 Regional hydrogen plan 2027 2032 Freight transport units 100 630 Utilitary vehicles units 540 2280 Buses units 86 260 H2 production tH2/year 16000 28800 Injection into the gas network tH2/year 3000 5400
  • 10. Scenarios – Circular energy system 10 Proposed objectives 100% Industrial waste heat 100% Waste water heat 100% Sludge 100% Municipal, agriculture and green waste 100% Buildings renovation 15% CCU Personnes par véhicule particulier 1.70 People by car Modal shift Personal mobility vehicles can cover up to 17% of cars mobility demand and buses can cover up to 7% in 2050 Air heat pumps 15% more than in the reference scenario Tidal energy 3 GW Wind 3 times the reference scenario No new fossil power plants Includes the regional hydrogen plan ! • Maximize the reuse of resources that otherwise would have been thrown away • Prioritize the recovery of resources in order to increase the efficiency of the system • Reduce emissions • Reuse products by giving them a second life • Integrate a shift in behavior in terms of how energy is consumed
  • 11. ktep 11 Results – Regional electricity production • In 2050 the use of fossil fuels represent 22% of electricity production in the reference scenario, while they account for less than 1% in the SR and CE scenario • Total power production in 2050 in the CE scenario is the lowest among the studied scenario as it presents a lower electricity demand • The electricity production achieved in 2050 in the SR scenario complies with a little bit more than 50% of the objectives stablished in the SRADDET 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 2017 2030 2050 2030 2050 2030 2050 Ref EC SR PJ Biogas Coal Hydraulic Natural Gas Ocean Oil products Other Solar ground Solar roof Wind Wood 83 % 103 % 35 %
  • 12. Results – Electricity production by zone 12 AHP: Alpes-de-Haute-Provence AM: Alpes-Maritimes BDR: Bouches-du-Rhône HA: Hautes-Alpes VAR: Var VAUC: Vaucluse • Electricity production is concentrated in the BDR1 in the reference and SR scenario while it is more distributed among the territories in the CE scenario • Wind production is developed mainly in the BDR1, while tidal energy is mostly used in theVAR1 zone • Hydroelectricity is developed mainly in theVAUC zone 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 2017 2050 2050 2050 2017 2050 2050 2050 2017 2050 2050 2050 2017 2050 2050 2050 2017 2050 2050 2050 2017 2050 2050 2050 2017 2050 2050 2050 2017 2050 2050 2050 2017 2050 2050 2050 REF SR EC REF SR EC REF SR EC REF SR EC REF SR EC REF SR EC REF SR EC REF SR EC REF SR EC AHP AM1 AM2 BDR1 BDR2 HA VAR1 VAR2 VAUC PJ Biogas Coal Hydraulic Natural Gas Ocean Oil products Other Solar ground Solar roof Wind Wood
  • 13. Electricity storage 13 • Hydro storage and batteries have been used to store electricity • Hydro storage has been developed mainly in theAHP zone • Batteries have been used mostly in high consuming ares as they have been used to store electricity from roof photovoltaic panels 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 2025 2030 2040 2050 PJ REF Elc prod SR Elc prod EC Elc prod REF Storage SR Storage EC Storage
  • 14. Final energy consumption 14 Housing Industry Transport 2017 Reference SRADDET Circular Economy 190 PJ 137 PJ 179 PJ 157 PJ 176 PJ 158 PJ 164 PJ 161 PJ 164 PJ 156 PJ 130 PJ 138 PJ
  • 15. Total CO2 emissions 15 0 5000 10000 15000 20000 25000 30000 35000 40000 2017 2018 2020 2025 2030 2040 2050 kt CE SR REF -45% -36% -24%
  • 16. Conclusion • The region is in the path towards the decarbonization of its energy system, with the decrease of fossil fuels consumption and the development of clean technologies. • The recovery of waste heat should be prioritize as it has proven to have a great potential to decarbonize the habitat sector, increasing also the efficiency of the whole system. • The use of batteries to store roof PV production is key to allow a greater development of the technology • It is required higher efforts to allow the introduction of clean alternative energies into the transport sector. Supporting the development of an hydrogen market seems key to decarbonize this sector. • Implementing a CE perspective in the development of an energy system can allow greater environmental results. 16
  • 17. THANKS FOR YOUR ATTENTION Carlos ANDRADE carlos.andrade@mines-paristech.fr PhD student MINES ParisTech,PSL Research University,Center for Applied Mathematics Thesis co-financed by ADEME and the SUD Provence-Alpes-Côte d'Azur Region and in partnership with Schneider Electric Carlos ANDRADE MINES ParisTech, PSL Research University Center for Applied Mathematics, Sophia Antipolis 17