IDTechEx Research presents a review and outlook for RFID from 2015-2020, including forecasts, market size and trends.

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RFID: 2015 Review and
Outlook to 2020
IDTechEx / r.das@IDTechEx.com
Raghu Das, CEO, IDTechEx

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Forecasts by application, technology, territory,
value chain and more
www.IDTechEx.com/RFID
New IDTechEx Research
Covering the Entire Market
The most comprehensive research into RFID
markets, with over 100 tables dissecting the entire
RFID industry – historic and forecast sales and
analysis of trends, suppliers and technologies.
RFID Forecasts, Players and
Opportunities 2016-­2026

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Cumulative sales of tags from 1943 to the start of 2015
DIGITALLY-­‐ENCODED
RFID
TAGS
ABOVE
0.1cm
RANGE
Worldwide
sales
cumulative
numbers
for
cards,
labels,
fobs
Total
number
35
billion
(2014
– 7.6
billion
sold)
o Passive:
34
billion
o Active/RTLS:
1
billion
Historic sales of RFID

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UHF (RAIN) RFID Tags Forecast
Millions
Apparel will
continue to
dominate
Other applications
will grow (apparel
80% in 2015 to
about 60% in 2018)
After apparel, many
diverse applications
“asset
management” but
fragmented and
varying volumes,
but strong payback
from high
performance, low
cost devices
Strong growth in
other retail items
beyond apparel

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Total RFID Market Size$ Billions
2015 -­ $10.1 Billion (2014 -­ $9.45 Billion;; 2013 -­ $8.79 Billion)

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Retail: Beyond apparel
Retailers with extensive apparel RFID programs have been extending to other items
where they can get some payback, e.g. soft furnishings (M&S), sports goods
(Oxylane)
UHF (RAIN) RFID performance for anti-­theft is excellent – will be on par with
traditional EAS systems and therefore antitheft will become a driver for RFID
As a way to increase sales, item identification is of interest in the form of
o better customer service (e.g. recommending matching products, VIP service etc.)
o new marketing information that can be gained that was not readily available
before (product movement in store for optimal store layout), patterns in picking
up products then buying them, browsing habits etc
Many different projects underway depending on the retailer/products. Likely to be
3 or more years before high volume (e.g. hundreds of millions tags) for non
apparel retail item opportunities emerge but a good payback story is brewing.

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Sensor and data logger market
“Data loggers” comprise of a market of hundreds of millions of dollars to prove
compliance for insurance policies or asked for by customers to their suppliers. These
are expensive devices, need ongoing calibration, analytics etc.
RFID innovation
Targeting existing and new markets (healthcare, retail etc.)
One magnitude (and possibly two) price reduction thanks to new ICs built around existing
RFID standards – versions that work at NFC and UHF (RAIN) are available
• Standardized reader network
• Lowers cost
• Supply chains know RFID
Focus is on QC/QA in retail to provide a marketable differentiation. Some retailers in
pilots now with suppliers using temperature sensors so that freshness can be monitored.
Others addressing healthcare applications.

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Contactless payments gain momentum – better
marketing from credit card companies/banks, wide
spread adoption by retailers and other POS
applications (such as taxis), support for payments
by Apple in iphone 6
Many NFC projects including with allied
technologies such as printed electronics.
o Monitors when bottle is opened
o Provides different messaging for the user when
closed vs open
o Also provide notice of anti counterfeiting and
product authenticity
NFC
Thinfilm Electronics

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Other trends
Electronic Shelf Labels (ESLs) are a
rapidly growing market. Widespread
adoption initially in countries where there
are heavy fines for incorrectly labelled
products.
Tag and reader providers move
downstream to offer a software element,
usually cloud based. Aiming to sell a
“horizontal” platform into vertical markets.

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Tag Cost Comparisons
Component Trends/Comments UHF RFID
Chip 2011-2014 saw asp fall by an average of around 8% per year
due to volume growth. Prices are more stabilized now.
Chip attach (e.g. flip
chip)
Innovation – speed of IC placement and handling smaller ICs
while maintaining yield
Adhesive – chip to
substrate
Target is to increase cure/sinter speed of conductive adhesive
which would increase throughput.
Antenna and substrate
materials
Strong innovation
Antenna manufacture
equipment
depreciation,
processing cost
Strong innovation
Additionally, incremental savings achieved by moving to lower labor cost
territories. Inlay manufacture at UHF is a commodity business

11. Copyright © IDTechEx | www.IDTechEx.com
Forecasts by application, technology, territory,
value chain and more
www.IDTechEx.com/RFID
New IDTechEx Research
The most comprehensive research into RFID
markets, with over 100 tables dissecting the entire
RFID industry – historic and forecast sales and
analysis of trends, suppliers and technologies.
RFID Forecasts, Players and
Opportunities 2016-­2026