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The Atlas of
                             the Digital
                                 World
                                    11th edition




w w w . i d a t e . o r g
                              1 June 2011 - London
Agenda



 - Steve Durbin, Chairman, DigiWorld Club UK


 DigiWorld Yearbook 2011
 Core telecom, Internet and media market issues
 - Jean-Michel Chapon, DigiWorld Programme London
 - Yves Gassot, CEO, IDATE


 Other DigiWorld Initiatives 2011
 - DigiWorld Summit Programme (16-17 November 2011)
 - Collaborative Research programmes in UK




                                                      2
The DigiWorld Institute by IDATE …

 … the European Digital Economy Think Tank
   A team of dedicated consultants specialised in the telecom, Internet and
   media industries
   A Digital world observatory: analysing market and business strategies,
   trend-tracking and forecasts
   A European forum that helps deepen interactions between enterprises,
   public decision-makers and academia
 DigiWorld
 Programme by IDATE




                                                                              3
DigiWorld® Programme, an ambitious project


DigiWorld          Paris Club     London Club             Brussels Club
                    (monthly)         (monthly)          (launching in 2011)
Clubs

                 3 conferences     Transatlantic           DigiWorld
DigiWorld           in Paris         Dialogue             Summit 2011
Events                           (Columbia University)


                                  DigiWorld
DigiWorld         Catalogue of
                               Economic Journal
                                                            DigiWorld
Publishing       Market reports (Communications             Yearbook
                                      & Strategies)


DigiWorld           OTT &          The future of    Smart Living
Collaborative    Managed video     advertising &    Smart Cities
                   services         datamining (launching in 2011/2012)
Research 2011
                                                                               4
DigiWorld® Yearbook, an original initiative

Available in English and French, the 2011 edition will be launched in Paris
and London.




                                                                              5
DigiWorld® Yearbook, an original initiative


Published with the support of DigiWorld Programme members




                                                            6
DigiWorld trends by region


A market worth €2,754 billion in 2010, reporting 3% growth


  Market recovery in
  the US, but growth
  still on hold in
  Europe
  Emerging markets
  still the key driving
  forces… but not all
  faring the same




                                                             7
DigiWorld trends by sector


Recovery still tentative in most industry segments


  Halting performances
  in hardware markets


  Very slight growth in
  service markets, with
  the exception of TV




                                                     8
UK 2011: Not leading the recovery

The UK is experiencing a slower DigiWorld recovery than its
leading European counter part

  ICT trend         Growth rate of ICT revenue per capita – EU 5
  mirrors GDP
                     4%
  trends but with
  lower              2%
                                                                            0.84%
  amplitudes                                                0.27%
                     0%                                                             France
                                                                                    Germany
                    -2%                                                             Italy
                                                                                    Spain
                    -4%                 -3.35%                                      United Kingdom


                    -6%


                    -8%
                                08-09               09-10           10-11


                                                                                                     9
IT in the UK : the lion share

IT revenue share per capita is bigger in the UK than to the
European average (at €2060 per capita)



  IT services +           Breakdown of DigiWorld revenue per capita in 2011
  IT hardware:            2500
  UK = 45%
  EU = 38%                2000
                                                                                Consumer electronics
                                                                                TV services
                          1500
                                                                                Computer hardware
  Business share is                                                             Software & services
                          1000
  pulling UK figures up                                                         Telecom equipment
                                                                                Telecom services
                           500


  Private consumption        0
  is lagging                     France   Germany    Italy   Spain     United
                                                                     Kingdom


                                                                                                      10
TV services & equipment for IT & Telecom

UK areas for DigiWorld Growth


  Despite all the   2011 DigiWorld growth rate per segment – EU 5

  “buz” on new       6.00%
  devices, most
                                                                                             TV
  negatively         4.00%
                                                                                             services
  impacting                                                                                  SW & services
                     2.00%
  segment is                                                                                 Telecom
  “Consumer          0.00%
                                                                                             services
                                                                                             Consumer
  electronics”                                                                               electronics
                    -2.00%                                                                   Computer
                                                                                             hardw are

                    -4.00%                                                                   Telecom
                                                                                             equipment

                    -6.00%
                              France      Germany       Italy       Spain   United Kingdom



                                                                                                           11
Beyond the DigiWorld’s core

… New Internet markets
                              Online
                               video
           Online             0.7 Bn€        IPTV
         advertising
           0.8 Bn€                                  eBook                                 eCommerce
   Online                                                                                   210 Bn€
   gaming               Media                             Mobile
    2 Bn€               125 Bn€                            apps
                                                          1 Bn€
                                            Telecoms
   Social
 networking                                 310 Bn€
                     Software                               VoIP
   0.5 Bn€
                     & IT
                     265 Bn€
                                                                                  eHealth

     Search
      6 Bn€                                                   Smart
                                Cloud
                              Saas, IaaS,        M2M          Grid &
                                PaaS              IoT         Cities
                               5.7 Bn€          0.5 Bn€
              Source: IDATE                                  Note: Figures are for the EU-27 2010
                                                                                                      12
Facts and commentary: 2010 - 2011


1. Will devices be king?


2. LTE: promising first steps…


3. FTTx: hesitation and impatience


4. Net Neutrality: Act II




                                     13
1. Will the device be king?

  Google’s Android bet likely
  to pay off
  Apple’s iPad bet paying off
  The Nokia-Microsoft
  alliance
  TV gets connected……




  Will the Device be really
  King?
  In the great battle of the online
  ecosystems?
                                      14
2. LTE: Good News!


First large-scale rollouts
progressing very differently
from earlier 3G/UMTS ones…

Sizeable gap in European and
American cellco’s revenue
growth…




                               Will new pricing schemes and
                               the huge popularity of
                               smartphones put European
                               carriers back on track?

                                                         15
3. FTTX : hesitation and impatience

►     FTTx: Europe lagging behind…
►     The appeal of fibre needs to be bolstered by new tiered pricing schemes
      and attractive content…
►     No single European market has emerged as a model, each one offering
      up a different view of the future

    Underpinning telcos’ (and
    financial markets’) hesitations
    is uncertainty over ROI and,
    ultimately, the position of
    telcos vs. OTT…

    Stepped up rollouts in
    2011-2012?
    How will this affect the sector’s
    structure?
    What prices and what new
    services can we expect?
                                                                                16
4. Net Neutrality: Act II
                                                       Upstream as a % of traffic in N-A
 Act II … as a certain degree of clarity
 has set in
                                                                 31,00%   Of which 44% for P2P and
 NN= non-discrimination                                                      only 12% for the rest 25,00%
                                                                                   24,00%                     23%
 + justified traffic management
 + and segmented access (incl. for managed
 services) but must not affect accessibility of
 the open Web
                                                                  2007             2008                2009   2010
 Act II … as the debate shifts, notably
                                                      Source: Cisco                       Ups trea m
 to the topic of how and whether the top
 aggregators should help finance
 infrastructure given the growing asymmetry
 in traffic at network delivery points (cf. Netflix
 – Level3 – Comcast affair)


 How to generate new revenue when
 traffic is skyrocketing?
 What’s involved in making the transition to
 smart pipe?
 Are we going to see more mergers and
 alliances?
                                                                                                                     17
5. Also noteworthy …

►Talking again about an Internet bubble: $25 billion for Groupon…
►Google’s troubles in China
►The role of social networking in popular uprisings in Tunisia and Egypt
►AT&T’s planned takeover of T-Mobile
►Vivendi buys Vodafone’s stake in SFR
►…
                              Save the date!
                              16&17 Novembre, Montpellier
                              Will the Device be King?
                                 Smart Devices: what’s Next?

                                 Devices issues in digital markets:
                                 Mobile Internet, TV & Video OTT, Press
                                 Beyond Devices, the Cloud’ battle!
                                                                           18
Thank you!



             19

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DigiWorld Yearbook 2011

  • 1. The Atlas of the Digital World 11th edition w w w . i d a t e . o r g 1 June 2011 - London
  • 2. Agenda - Steve Durbin, Chairman, DigiWorld Club UK DigiWorld Yearbook 2011 Core telecom, Internet and media market issues - Jean-Michel Chapon, DigiWorld Programme London - Yves Gassot, CEO, IDATE Other DigiWorld Initiatives 2011 - DigiWorld Summit Programme (16-17 November 2011) - Collaborative Research programmes in UK 2
  • 3. The DigiWorld Institute by IDATE … … the European Digital Economy Think Tank A team of dedicated consultants specialised in the telecom, Internet and media industries A Digital world observatory: analysing market and business strategies, trend-tracking and forecasts A European forum that helps deepen interactions between enterprises, public decision-makers and academia DigiWorld Programme by IDATE 3
  • 4. DigiWorld® Programme, an ambitious project DigiWorld Paris Club London Club Brussels Club (monthly) (monthly) (launching in 2011) Clubs 3 conferences Transatlantic DigiWorld DigiWorld in Paris Dialogue Summit 2011 Events (Columbia University) DigiWorld DigiWorld Catalogue of Economic Journal DigiWorld Publishing Market reports (Communications Yearbook & Strategies) DigiWorld OTT & The future of Smart Living Collaborative Managed video advertising & Smart Cities services datamining (launching in 2011/2012) Research 2011 4
  • 5. DigiWorld® Yearbook, an original initiative Available in English and French, the 2011 edition will be launched in Paris and London. 5
  • 6. DigiWorld® Yearbook, an original initiative Published with the support of DigiWorld Programme members 6
  • 7. DigiWorld trends by region A market worth €2,754 billion in 2010, reporting 3% growth Market recovery in the US, but growth still on hold in Europe Emerging markets still the key driving forces… but not all faring the same 7
  • 8. DigiWorld trends by sector Recovery still tentative in most industry segments Halting performances in hardware markets Very slight growth in service markets, with the exception of TV 8
  • 9. UK 2011: Not leading the recovery The UK is experiencing a slower DigiWorld recovery than its leading European counter part ICT trend Growth rate of ICT revenue per capita – EU 5 mirrors GDP 4% trends but with lower 2% 0.84% amplitudes 0.27% 0% France Germany -2% Italy Spain -4% -3.35% United Kingdom -6% -8% 08-09 09-10 10-11 9
  • 10. IT in the UK : the lion share IT revenue share per capita is bigger in the UK than to the European average (at €2060 per capita) IT services + Breakdown of DigiWorld revenue per capita in 2011 IT hardware: 2500 UK = 45% EU = 38% 2000 Consumer electronics TV services 1500 Computer hardware Business share is Software & services 1000 pulling UK figures up Telecom equipment Telecom services 500 Private consumption 0 is lagging France Germany Italy Spain United Kingdom 10
  • 11. TV services & equipment for IT & Telecom UK areas for DigiWorld Growth Despite all the 2011 DigiWorld growth rate per segment – EU 5 “buz” on new 6.00% devices, most TV negatively 4.00% services impacting SW & services 2.00% segment is Telecom “Consumer 0.00% services Consumer electronics” electronics -2.00% Computer hardw are -4.00% Telecom equipment -6.00% France Germany Italy Spain United Kingdom 11
  • 12. Beyond the DigiWorld’s core … New Internet markets Online video Online 0.7 Bn€ IPTV advertising 0.8 Bn€ eBook eCommerce Online 210 Bn€ gaming Media Mobile 2 Bn€ 125 Bn€ apps 1 Bn€ Telecoms Social networking 310 Bn€ Software VoIP 0.5 Bn€ & IT 265 Bn€ eHealth Search 6 Bn€ Smart Cloud Saas, IaaS, M2M Grid & PaaS IoT Cities 5.7 Bn€ 0.5 Bn€ Source: IDATE Note: Figures are for the EU-27 2010 12
  • 13. Facts and commentary: 2010 - 2011 1. Will devices be king? 2. LTE: promising first steps… 3. FTTx: hesitation and impatience 4. Net Neutrality: Act II 13
  • 14. 1. Will the device be king? Google’s Android bet likely to pay off Apple’s iPad bet paying off The Nokia-Microsoft alliance TV gets connected…… Will the Device be really King? In the great battle of the online ecosystems? 14
  • 15. 2. LTE: Good News! First large-scale rollouts progressing very differently from earlier 3G/UMTS ones… Sizeable gap in European and American cellco’s revenue growth… Will new pricing schemes and the huge popularity of smartphones put European carriers back on track? 15
  • 16. 3. FTTX : hesitation and impatience ► FTTx: Europe lagging behind… ► The appeal of fibre needs to be bolstered by new tiered pricing schemes and attractive content… ► No single European market has emerged as a model, each one offering up a different view of the future Underpinning telcos’ (and financial markets’) hesitations is uncertainty over ROI and, ultimately, the position of telcos vs. OTT… Stepped up rollouts in 2011-2012? How will this affect the sector’s structure? What prices and what new services can we expect? 16
  • 17. 4. Net Neutrality: Act II Upstream as a % of traffic in N-A Act II … as a certain degree of clarity has set in 31,00% Of which 44% for P2P and NN= non-discrimination only 12% for the rest 25,00% 24,00% 23% + justified traffic management + and segmented access (incl. for managed services) but must not affect accessibility of the open Web 2007 2008 2009 2010 Act II … as the debate shifts, notably Source: Cisco Ups trea m to the topic of how and whether the top aggregators should help finance infrastructure given the growing asymmetry in traffic at network delivery points (cf. Netflix – Level3 – Comcast affair) How to generate new revenue when traffic is skyrocketing? What’s involved in making the transition to smart pipe? Are we going to see more mergers and alliances? 17
  • 18. 5. Also noteworthy … ►Talking again about an Internet bubble: $25 billion for Groupon… ►Google’s troubles in China ►The role of social networking in popular uprisings in Tunisia and Egypt ►AT&T’s planned takeover of T-Mobile ►Vivendi buys Vodafone’s stake in SFR ►… Save the date! 16&17 Novembre, Montpellier Will the Device be King? Smart Devices: what’s Next? Devices issues in digital markets: Mobile Internet, TV & Video OTT, Press Beyond Devices, the Cloud’ battle! 18