On Wednesday, September 18th - as part of the Hudson Estuary Watershed Resiliency Project's Seminar Series - Jason Winner, Conservation GIS Manager for Scenic Hudson presented on the new Sea Level Rise Mapper.
The mapper is a tool for communities and stakeholders to use to create visualizations of future scenarios of sea level rise. With these maps and information, Scenic Hudson is supporting communities' efforts to develop adaptation plans by helping them to:
- create maps of the extent and impacts of inundation and flood zone expansion
- understand the locations of key built and natural resources
- create graphics that illustrate different sea level rise scenarios in specific communities or stretches of the river
- estimate the risks to infrastructure and natural resources and the likelihoods of different inundation events
- develop alternative adaptation scenarios and weigh their cost and benefits with respect to built infrastructure and natural resources
** The Sea Level Rise Mapper can be found on Scenic Hudson's website at: http://www.scenichudson.org/slr/mapper
For more information, contact Jason Winner at Scenic Hudson at (845) 473-4440 ext 223, or jwinner@scenichudson.org
3. Hudson River Sea Level Rise Projections RISK AREAS
CENTRAL RANGE RAPID ICE MELT SCENARIO
CURRENT CURRENT
4. Hudson River Sea Level Rise Projections
CENTRAL RANGE RAPID ICE MELT SCENARIO
2020 2020
RISK AREAS
Inundation ZoneInundation Zone
5. Hudson River Sea Level Rise Projections RISK AREAS
CENTRAL RANGE RAPID ICE MELT SCENARIO
2050 2050
Inundation ZoneInundation Zone
6. Hudson River Sea Level Rise Projections RISK AREAS
CENTRAL RANGE RAPID ICE MELT SCENARIO
2080 2080
Inundation ZoneInundation Zone
7. Hudson River Sea Level Rise Projections RISK AREAS
Isolated
Inundation
Zones
CENTRAL RANGE RAPID ICE MELT SCENARIO
2080 2080
8. Increased Coastal Flooding
• Inundation is the “new normal” for the
river, but what about flooding?
• Modeling same as inundation, except with
FEMA Base Flood Elevations (BFE’s)
• Base Flood Elevations are the basis for
1% risk flooding (100 year floodplains)
A Roadmap for Sea Level Rise
10. A Roadmap for Sea Level Rise
Increased Coastal Flooding
11. Increased Coastal Flooding
January 2013 – FEMA issues Advisory BFE’s for
NYC, NJ, Rockland & Westchester Counties
Advisory BFE’s
• Portray Current Flood Risks
• Not regulatory (yet)
• Recommended for all future planning
• Do not consider sea level rise
• Are 4-6’ higher than current BFE’s!
Source: http://www.region2coastal.com/faqs/advisory-bfe-faq
A Roadmap for Sea Level Rise
12. Increased Coastal Flooding
June 2013 – FEMA issues Preliminary Work
Maps for NYC
• Similar to Advisory BFE’s
• Process toward updating FIRMs
A Roadmap for Sea Level Rise
17. Intersect with census blocks & calculate statistics
If 50% of a census block is inundated at 36”, then it
is assumed that the same percentage of people
and households in that block are inundated at 36”
Areal Weighting
18. Inundated Area 2100
Intersect with census blocks & calculate statistics
Stats calculated for over 2000 census blocks at
each of 13 inundation steps and 13 flood steps
Areal Weighting
19. Inundated Area 2100
At risk of inundation by 2100:
9,496 acres
3,654 households
6,911 people
At risk of coastal flooding by 2100:
9,460 acres
11,929 households
22,221 people
20. Hudson Valley At Risk Statistics
Municipal Infrastructure At Risk
Railroad linear miles:
Treatment Facilities:
Hazardous Facilities:
Brownfields:
Schools:
102 401
3 11
28 130
23 65
0 10
Inundation Flooding
A Roadmap for Sea Level Rise
21. Hudson River Sea Level Rise Projections TIDAL WETLAND IMPACTS
CENTRAL RANGE RAPID ICE MELT SCENARIO
CURRENT CURRENT
22. Hudson River Sea Level Rise Projections TIDAL WETLAND IMPACTS
CENTRAL RANGE RAPID ICE MELT SCENARIO
2020 2020
Inundated
Tidal Wetlands
Inundated
Tidal Wetlands
23. Hudson River Sea Level Rise Projections TIDAL WETLAND IMPACTS
CENTRAL RANGE RAPID ICE MELT SCENARIO
2050 2050
Inundated
Tidal Wetlands
Inundated
Tidal Wetlands
