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SAVING FOR NOW,
SAVING FOR LATER
BRIGITTE MADRIAN
HARVARD UNIVERSITY
July 5, 2017
Lessons from Behavioral Economics
Relevant to Savings
 People procrastinate when choices are complicated
and they can put off taking action
 People make mistakes when choices are
complicated
 People tend to compartmentalize when thinking
about money (mental accounting)
 Institutional features matter…a lot
 Defaults: opt-in vs. opt-out
 Size and structure of the investment menu
Who Feels Confident About Their Financial Prospects
in Retirement?
28%
72%
69%
28%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
No retirement plan Has retirement plan
Overall, how confident are you that you (and your spouse) will have
enough money to live comfortably throughout your retirement years?
Don't know/refused
Not too confident /
not at all confident
Very confident /
somewhat confident
Source: EBRI Retirement Confidence Survey, 2014
Life Happens….
How confident are you that you could come up with $2000 if
an unexpected need arose within the next month?
35%
21%
15%
25%
I am certain I could come
up with the full $2000
I could probably come up
with $2000
I could probably not come
up with $2000
I am certain I could not
come up with $2000
Source: National Financial Capability Study, 2012
Have you set aside emergency or rainy day funds
that would cover your expenses for three months?
Source: National Financial Capability Study, 2012
40%
56%
4%
Yes No DK/NA
How Accessible are “Retirement”
Savings Before Retirement?
Easy
access
Conditional access:
Extreme hardship
Very limited
access
Is This Even Relevant? How Much
Leakage Is There?
Is This Even Relevant? How Much
Leakage Is There?
 For every $2 that flows
into the US retirement
savings system…
 …almost $1 leaks out
 WHY?
Liquidity: The Tradeoffs
Easy access creates
temptation to spend on
(illegitimate) current
wants
 Vacation
 New car
Unanticipated economic
shocks create
immediate (legitimate)
spending needs
 Unemployment
 Health shocks
How Much Liquidity Should We Have?
How Much Liquidity Should We Have?
 Model of optimal liquidity in a retirement savings
system
 Economic shocks before retirement  need for liquidity
 Present-biased consumers tempted to consume more
more today in a liquid system
 Results: optimal system has
 Sizeable illiquid account
 Smaller liquid account with a modest penalty
 Very small liquid account with no penalty
Helping Employees Save
Savings experiment
 India—low income
country
 Cash wage low-skilled,
low-income laborers
Can we help them save?
What Will Help People Save More?
40
rupees
80
rupees
or
A low savings target … …or a high savings target
What Will Help People Save More?
40
rupees
40
rupees
80
rupees
or
…two separate “accounts”A single “account”
2 Amounts
40 INR (low) vs. 80 INR (high)
40
40
40
20
20
80
80 INR
2 envelopes
80 INR
1 envelope
40 INR
2 envelopes
40 INR
1 envelope
Source: Soman and Cheema (2011). “Earmarking and Partitioning”
1 envelope
vs.
2 envelopes
321 334
0
100
200
300
400
500
Low target
(40 rupees)
High target
(80 rupees)
Rupeessavedover14weeks
Low vs. High Target
241
414
0
100
200
300
400
500
One
envelope
Two
envelopes
Rupeessavedover14weeks
One vs. Two Envelopes
Results of Savings Experiment in India
173 INR (72%) increase
Statistically significant
13 INR (4%) increase
Not significant
Likelihood of Opening Each Envelope
40 INR (low) vs. 80 INR (high)
80 INR
2 envelopes
80 INR
1 envelope
40 INR
2 envelopes
40 INR
1 envelope
1 envelope
vs.
2 envelopes
84%
85%
43%
64%
65%
30%
Parallel Accounts
Retirement
Account
Rainy Day
Account
Proposal: Parallel Retirement and Rainy
Day Savings Accounts
 Automatic enrollment
 Would require some regulatory reform
 Mental accounting: two separate accounts
 Create a psychological barrier to using the “retirement” account for
purposes other than retirement
 Limit the “budget” available for rainy day expenditures
 Separate but integrated
 Contributions divided across the two accounts based on account balance
in the rainy day account
 Division between the two accounts adjusts automatically depending on
the balance in the rainy day fund
 All contributions allocated to the retirement account once a target
balance in the rainy day fund is met (e.g., 3 months income)
Measuring the Impact: Outcomes
Worksite A Worksite B
Control Group Treatment Group
Retirement Plan Only
(Business as Usual)
Retirement Plan AND
Rainy Day Account
Employee Differences Across
Worksites A and B in
Retirement savings contributions
Credit scores
Personal debt
Use of non-traditional credit
products
Financial stress
Productivity
Turnover
Summary and Conclusions
 Many employees are under financial stress
 Employers are in a good position to help
 Many things employers can do
 Need to understand the problems of employee
 What solutions will best help?
 Design, test, and measure impact

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Saving for now , saving for later

  • 1. SAVING FOR NOW, SAVING FOR LATER BRIGITTE MADRIAN HARVARD UNIVERSITY July 5, 2017
  • 2. Lessons from Behavioral Economics Relevant to Savings  People procrastinate when choices are complicated and they can put off taking action  People make mistakes when choices are complicated  People tend to compartmentalize when thinking about money (mental accounting)  Institutional features matter…a lot  Defaults: opt-in vs. opt-out  Size and structure of the investment menu
  • 3. Who Feels Confident About Their Financial Prospects in Retirement? 28% 72% 69% 28% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% No retirement plan Has retirement plan Overall, how confident are you that you (and your spouse) will have enough money to live comfortably throughout your retirement years? Don't know/refused Not too confident / not at all confident Very confident / somewhat confident Source: EBRI Retirement Confidence Survey, 2014
  • 5. How confident are you that you could come up with $2000 if an unexpected need arose within the next month? 35% 21% 15% 25% I am certain I could come up with the full $2000 I could probably come up with $2000 I could probably not come up with $2000 I am certain I could not come up with $2000 Source: National Financial Capability Study, 2012
  • 6. Have you set aside emergency or rainy day funds that would cover your expenses for three months? Source: National Financial Capability Study, 2012 40% 56% 4% Yes No DK/NA
  • 7. How Accessible are “Retirement” Savings Before Retirement? Easy access Conditional access: Extreme hardship Very limited access
  • 8. Is This Even Relevant? How Much Leakage Is There?
  • 9. Is This Even Relevant? How Much Leakage Is There?  For every $2 that flows into the US retirement savings system…  …almost $1 leaks out  WHY?
  • 10. Liquidity: The Tradeoffs Easy access creates temptation to spend on (illegitimate) current wants  Vacation  New car Unanticipated economic shocks create immediate (legitimate) spending needs  Unemployment  Health shocks
  • 11. How Much Liquidity Should We Have?
  • 12. How Much Liquidity Should We Have?  Model of optimal liquidity in a retirement savings system  Economic shocks before retirement  need for liquidity  Present-biased consumers tempted to consume more more today in a liquid system  Results: optimal system has  Sizeable illiquid account  Smaller liquid account with a modest penalty  Very small liquid account with no penalty
  • 13. Helping Employees Save Savings experiment  India—low income country  Cash wage low-skilled, low-income laborers Can we help them save?
  • 14. What Will Help People Save More? 40 rupees 80 rupees or A low savings target … …or a high savings target
  • 15. What Will Help People Save More? 40 rupees 40 rupees 80 rupees or …two separate “accounts”A single “account”
  • 16. 2 Amounts 40 INR (low) vs. 80 INR (high) 40 40 40 20 20 80 80 INR 2 envelopes 80 INR 1 envelope 40 INR 2 envelopes 40 INR 1 envelope Source: Soman and Cheema (2011). “Earmarking and Partitioning” 1 envelope vs. 2 envelopes
  • 17. 321 334 0 100 200 300 400 500 Low target (40 rupees) High target (80 rupees) Rupeessavedover14weeks Low vs. High Target 241 414 0 100 200 300 400 500 One envelope Two envelopes Rupeessavedover14weeks One vs. Two Envelopes Results of Savings Experiment in India 173 INR (72%) increase Statistically significant 13 INR (4%) increase Not significant
  • 18. Likelihood of Opening Each Envelope 40 INR (low) vs. 80 INR (high) 80 INR 2 envelopes 80 INR 1 envelope 40 INR 2 envelopes 40 INR 1 envelope 1 envelope vs. 2 envelopes 84% 85% 43% 64% 65% 30%
  • 20. Proposal: Parallel Retirement and Rainy Day Savings Accounts  Automatic enrollment  Would require some regulatory reform  Mental accounting: two separate accounts  Create a psychological barrier to using the “retirement” account for purposes other than retirement  Limit the “budget” available for rainy day expenditures  Separate but integrated  Contributions divided across the two accounts based on account balance in the rainy day account  Division between the two accounts adjusts automatically depending on the balance in the rainy day fund  All contributions allocated to the retirement account once a target balance in the rainy day fund is met (e.g., 3 months income)
  • 21. Measuring the Impact: Outcomes Worksite A Worksite B Control Group Treatment Group Retirement Plan Only (Business as Usual) Retirement Plan AND Rainy Day Account Employee Differences Across Worksites A and B in Retirement savings contributions Credit scores Personal debt Use of non-traditional credit products Financial stress Productivity Turnover
  • 22. Summary and Conclusions  Many employees are under financial stress  Employers are in a good position to help  Many things employers can do  Need to understand the problems of employee  What solutions will best help?  Design, test, and measure impact