Emerging from the cold: Despite the additional challenges and costs involved, cold-climates sites are increasingly attractive to developers thanks to their high winds and location in mature markets, technological advances have made tackling icy conditions easier.

1. 32 AUGUST 2016
Frozen asset
De-icing blades is one
of the challenges of
cold-climate sites
WINDPOWERMONTHLY.COM

2. COLD CLIMATE
MARKETPOTENTIAL
AUGUST 2016 33
T
he deployment of wind energy in cold-
climate (CC) areas is growing rapidly.CC
sites — the definition covers low-
temperature and icing climates — are
becoming more attractive because of high
wind speeds,increased air density resulting
from low temperatures,and low population density.In
many European countries,the move to CC sites has been
prompted by the fact that the more-easily exploitable
inland areas are already in use.
However,CC conditions bring extra challenges to
wind-power projects,such as ice accretion on rotor
blades and instruments,and demand specialist choices
in materials and lubricants.Blade icing decreases
energy production and potentially reduces the wind
turbine’s mechanical lifetime,which could impact the
efficiency and profitability of the project.Additionally,
iced blades increase noise emissions and generate ice
throw,posing environmental and safety issues for
project workers and local residents.
To resolve some of the main CC challenges,the
International EnergyAgency (IEA) established a task
force,IEA Wind Task 19,which has been gathering and
coordinating recommended practices on cold-climate
wind energy since 2002.Its first global CC market study
for 2012-2017 was published in the BTM World Market
Update report in 2013,and estimated that by the end of
2015,up to 100GW of cumulative wind capacity would
have been installed in CC areas.The forecast horizon of
the BTM study ends in 2017,so Task 19 decided to update
the numbers to see what the CC market for wind energy
will look like in 2016-2020.
Mapping cold-climates sites
Accurate information on icing and low-temperature
climates is needed to estimate the size and potential
of the CC market.Historical observations of in-cloud
icing conditions (known as meteorological icing) at
150 metres above ground level were used to create a
vtt/avignaroli
IEA Icing Climate site classification
International Energy Agengy definitions according to meteorological icing
IEA ice Meteorological icing Instrumental icing Icing loss (% of gross
class (% of year) (% of year) annual production)
5 >10 >20 > 20
4 5-10 10-30 10-25
3 3-5 6-15 3-12
2 0.5-3 1-9 0.5-5
1 0-0.5 <1.5 0 - 0.5
map of icing climate.Low temperature regions
(experiencing several days below 20C) were estimated
using global re-analysis weather data.
A commercial global wind-farm database,with
site-specific coordinates and capacity information,was
used to categorise all global onshore wind farms
as non-CC,low-temperature climate or icing climate.
Icing climate sites were categorised according to their
meteorological icing using the IEA ice classification
(see table,below).Sites in ice classes 2-5 were labelled
as icing-climate sites.
Country specific market forecasts for 2016-2020 were
obtained from the BTM World Market Update 2015,and
combined with the low-temperature and icing
information to estimate the CC market potential.
The new market study shows a cumulative capacity
of 127GW at the end of last year,a 28% increase from
BTM’s previous analysis (see map,overleaf).The forecast
for the end of 2020 shows a total installed capacity of
185.5GW,indicating a remarkable 30% share of global
forecasted wind capacity.Around 11.7GW of new CC
capacity will be built each year,the report predicts.By
comparison,the average annual growth rate for offshore
wind is forecast at around 4GW,making the CC market
nearly three times the size of offshore wind.
In cumulative capacity,the largest CC market areas
are North America,Europe and Asia (see map,overleaf).
Compared to the previous BTM analysis,the largest
capacity increases — in both low-temperature and icing
climates — are in the North American market.Europe
leads the way in terms of icing sites,with nearly 62GW
forecast to be installed by the end of the decade.
Scandinavia provides the largest amount of moderate to
Despite the additional challenges and costs involved,cold-climates sites are increasingly
attractive to developers thanks to their highwinds and location in mature markets.And
technological advances have made tackling icyconditions easier,writesVille Lehtomäki
Emerging
from the cold

3. COLD CLIMATE
MARKETPOTENTIAL
WINDPOWERMONTHLY.COM
34 AUGUST 2016
Source: BTMGrowth areas Current and predicted installed capacity for cold-climate and icing sites
severe icing sites (Ice class 3 and above),followed by
Canada,but a large portion of the total icing markets are
seen in central Europe and the US in Ice Class 2
climates.Asia dominates the low-temperature climate
market,but has very few icing sites.
Cold-climate checklist
There is vast potential for profit when building large
onshore wind farms in CC conditions and remote
locations.But special care needs to be taken to minimise
the extra risks and costs asscociated with building wind
projects in these conditions.This is the mission of IEA
Wind Task 19: “To write and disseminate state-of-the-
art and recommended practices that enable safe and
economically viable projects in CC conditions.”
Based on its cumulative and combined experience of
CC conditions,IEA Wind Task 19 has developed six
recommendations to help project developers plan and
build better and safer CC wind projects.
l Be aware of the extra risks and costs of CC wind-
energy production at the early stages of the project
l Use latest Task 19 recommended practices report for
best procedures in CC project development
l Use Task 19 available technologies report to find lists
of existing CC technologies
l Start screening of potential sites using the icing maps
from the available technologies report,which also
provides information on warmer climate sites in high
elevation locations
l If the pre-screening process shows a site of IEC
class 2-5,always perform on-site icing measurement,
for at least one year at hub height,and apply a
long-term adjustment
l Discuss with turbine manufacturers how their
technology is suited for site-specific icing and
low-temperature conditions.Request turbine
performance operation either via simulations or,
preferably,Scada data from sites with similar
climactic conditions,especially regarding icing.
Review turbine control strategy in icing conditions.
Of course,reality is often more complex than
following a six-point list,but the recommendations
above include the most crucial steps required to build a
profitable CC site.
Market potential
The cold climate market is one of the largest “non
standard” sectors for wind energy today,and with a
huge potential that remains untapped.These sites are
reasonably low cost,with excellent wind resources
during winter when electricity market prices are
typically high.
The market for building new CC wind farms and
creating technologies that solve the toughest challenges
are there for the taking.The business potential for
enhancing existing technological solutions,and
especially creating new low-cost solutions for light
icing sites is huge.
Through better international research and
development efforts,involving industry as well as
research institutes,the wind energy sector will
find a new source of affordable onshore sites with
excellent wind resources and large business potential
in CC locations.
Ville Lehtomäki is a senior scientist at the VTTTechnical
Research Centre of Finland.He will be speaking at
Windpower Monthly’s Optimising Wind Farms in Cold
Climates event,6-8 December,Helsinki,Finland