2020 Trends

22002200 TTrreennddss::
What Will Affect Our
World in the Next Decade?
Media Future Week
Marian Salzman
May 16, 2011
@ erwwpr Marian Salzman Trendspotting

Why Trends?
Why do we look at trends when
creating actionable and insightful
strategies for big brands?

Why Trends?
•To identify the driving forces behind today and the
future and plan for long-term success.

Why Trends?
•To identify the driving forces behind today and the future
and plan for long-term success.
•To discover unexpected opportunities that can help
transform brands and businesses.

Why Trends?
•To identify the driving forces behind today and the future
and plan for long-term success.
•To discover unexpected opportunities that can help
transform brands and businesses.
•To manage into change by giving insight into the
drivers of key business, consumer and social trends.

Learning to
Spot Trends
It means tracking
people
social
momentum
companies
radical
breakthroughs
brands
economies

Spotting trends
is big business for people
in many industries who need
to be thinking ahead, for
themselves and their clients.

And, really, isn’t that
everyone today?

Unquestionably, it’s everyone
in this audience today.

11.5 Macro Trends for 2020
(and How They Mean Business)

1.
Mother Earth
Needs Valium

1. Mother Earth
Needs Valium
•Maybe in the decades of prosperity we forgot how much we
depend on Mother Earth. Then came Hurricane Katrina and
all the ensuing worrying signs: tornadoes ripping across the
southern U.S.; massive flooding in Pakistan, Sri Lanka and
Australia; a heat wave in Russia; torrential rain and
mudslides in Brazil….
•The jury is still out on whether it’s man-made or not. But
either way, the climate is changing and getting decidedly weird.
•Are seismic events getting more frequent, too? The 2004
Asian earthquake and tsunami; earthquakes in Spain, China,
Haiti, Chile and New Zealand; the volcanic eruptions of
Eyjafjallajökull in Iceland and Merapi in Indonesia last year;
and this year’s Japanese earthquake and tsunami.

1. Mother Earth
Needs Valium
•What’s next? Could the La Palma volcano in the Canaries
erupt and send a megatsunami across to flatten the U.S.
East Coast? Could the Yellowstone Supervolcano blow up into
the finale to end all finales, with Americans getting a
ringside seat?
•Only economic engineering, with a massive injection and drip
feed of money, have saved the world from near economic
catastrophe so far. What sort of geo-engineering do we need
to save the world?
•How big a valium would we need to calm Mother Earth?

How Trend No. 1
Means Business:
The Dutch have arguably the world’s
best record in geo-engineering with
water management; when the world
fears eco-bust, Dutch can think geo-
boom. Businesses everywhere need to be
sure they’re better prepared than
Tokyo Electric Power Co. Not many
countries would behave as meekly as
the Japanese.

#mamaneedspills

2.
Tobacco,GMOs,
Trans Fats...
What’s Next?

2. Tobacco, GMOs,
Trans Fats…What’s Next?
•When so many things turn out to pose health risks, what
can consumers trust? Which everyday products could kill
them? We’re all familiar with these:
– Tobacco. Doctors and a young Ronald Reagan promoted the health
benefits of cigarettes. Even after medical research found conclusive
proof of health risks, tobacco companies continued to refute it.
– GMOs. When genetically modified organisms hit the headlines around
a decade ago—after the BSE scandal—Europeans talked of Frankenstein
foods and set strict regulations. As of April 2011, the EU is still
hesitant; GMO cultivation is limited.

2. Tobacco, GMOs,
Trans Fats…What’s Next?
And next, wireless communications?:
– Cell phones. For a decade, people have been wondering whether cell
phones bring health risks—especially brain tumors—but the U.S. FDA
says, “The weight of scientific evidence has not linked cell phones with
any health problems.” In Europe, many sites are quoting a 2007 report
from the European Environment Agency saying that cell-phone
technology “could lead to a health crisis similar to those caused by
asbestos, smoking and lead in petrol.”
•The concerns aren’t stopping cell phones and Wi-Fi from
being widely adopted, so the potential for an issue is
growing. Although maybe the worries will switch to
repetitive strain injury—teens and young adults, especially,
spend far more time texting than calling.

How Trend No. 2
Means Business:
Everything could change with a
“perfect wireless storm.” Everyone in
cell-phone and Wi-Fi provision needs to
think about potential vulnerability to
claims by millions–maybe hundreds of
millions–of global consumers.

#nowwhat

3.
Water:
The Next Oil

3. Water:
The Next Oil
•People have been talking for decades about water as the next
oil, but it will soon become a scary truth—and we’re not talking
bottled water, which already costs as much as car fuel.
•Drier places in the world (Australia, the Middle East, the
American Southwest) have long lived with drought and
squabbled over water resources for the basics of life:
drinking and growing food.

3. Water:
The Next Oil
•Now, modern consumption and hygiene habits, plus today’s
population growth, have been draining reservoirs, rivers and
groundwater faster than a bathtub with the plug pulled.
•Whole seas have been shrinking—the Aral Sea in Central
Asia and the Dead Sea in the Middle East, and in the U.S.,
Lake Mead was an estimated 54 percent empty in 2008.
With climate change, southern Europe could become even
more like North Africa.

How Trend No. 3
Means Business:
The slowly unfolding water crisis is a
great opportunity for businesses to
roll out more water-efficient products
for newly conscientious consumers.
Companies and countries with a track
record in water will be especially
well placed.

#nobusinesslikeflowbusiness

4.
What’s Not
Online-able
Is Doomed

4. What’s Not Online-
able Is Doomed
•In the 1980s, CDs made LPs obsolete, then MP3 music
through the Internet started killing CDs and undermining
the whole old-style music industry.
•In the late 1990s, DVDs started replacing VHS tapes; a
decade later, DVDs are under pressure from Tivo-style DVRs
and on-demand Internet-delivery services.

4. What’s Not Online-
able Is Doomed
•Digital cameras hit consumer markets in the early 2000s;
in 2005, Kodak’s digital products and services overtook its
film product sales. Now, who needs a camera when a mobile
phone can take pictures and upload them to view online?
•Printed books, magazines and newspapers are selling less,
and the contents are being consumed more on computers
and pads. In February 2011, e-book sales overtook print
book sales with a 202 percent month-over-month increase.

How Trend No. 4
Means Business:
Consumers value being able to do
things online–including having
friendships. Brands or products that
have smart online elements will beat
those that don’t.

#getonorgohome

5.
The New Social:
Antisocial

5. The New Social:
Antisocial
•Even if we don’t like the name, we all love social media. But
sometimes its paradoxes are just plain ridiculous—or tragic.
•These days, people don’t smoke when they’re feeling nervous
in a social setting; they check their FB page or Twitter feed
on their mobile device (as antisocial to people nearby as
having cigarette smoke blown on them).
•Some people even check their mobile device while they’re
walking along the street or in stores, oblivious to the people
around them—until they bump into them.

5. The New Social:
Antisocial
•The “new social” often interrupts physical interactions with
people—attention keeps flitting from the face-to-face
conversation to the online action.
•It’s a one-way trend of more technology, nevertheless.
Another 10 years of smart phones (iPhone 15?) and tablets
(iPad 13?) will make it even more compelling for consumers
to conduct social interactions through their technology.

How Trend No. 5
Means Business:
As consumers’ social interactions are
mediated more by tech, companies have
a huge scope for making money with
hardware, software and services that
enhance them.

#socialsecurity

6.
The Brain and Homo
Sapiens 2.0

6. The Brain and Homo
Sapiens 2.0
•Neuroscience is the new rock ’n’ roll, the new darling of the
media, looking into brains with high-tech scanners and
revealing the workings of everything from addiction to love.
•It holds out the promise of enhancing memory and
creativity, as well as offering better treatment for illnesses
such as dementia and Parkinson’s, and delaying the aging of
the brain with supplements, drugs and devices.
•And there’s more…

6. The Brain and Homo
Sapiens 2.0
•We now know that our brains are shaped—literally—by what
we experience. And what we are increasingly experiencing is
interactive technology mediated through the screens that
represent the world to us.
•Now we have the scientific instruments to see how the
technical tools we’re using are changing our brains. We have
a box seat to watch the emergence of Homo sapiens 2.0.
“Perhaps not since early man first discovered how to
use a tool has the human brain been affected so
quickly and so dramatically.” —UCLA neuroscientist Gary
Small on modern technology

How Trend No. 6
Means Business:
Watch as n (for “neuro”) gets applied to
brain products and services: nBoosters,
nHancers, nNutrients, nGames,
nGagement. Get into people’s brains
yourself by becoming a detached
anthropologist to notice key points that
might not be apparent to insiders (who
might be too busy screen-watching).

#brainsgetsmart

7.
More Real
than Real

7. More Real
than Real
•Even in the dark ages of computer graphics, the U.S. Marines
were using a version of first-person shooter game Doom for
training, and airline pilots were training on simulators.
•Now with CGI and 3-D, gamemakers and moviemakers are
creating experiences more vivid, more stimulating and more
immersive than virtually anything in the mundane physical
world of everyday reality.
•Military pilots “fly” unmanned drones on combat missions,
and millions of civilians immerse themselves in
hyperrealistic computer games for hours on end.

7. More Real
than Real
•It doesn’t even need fancy graphics: Interactions on simple
text-based social media platforms such as Facebook are
typically experienced comparably to offline interactions
(online-ability strikes again!).
•Some consumers already tend to find ordinary life
experiences less “real” than mediated virtual experiences.
As computing power increases and technology companies
refine their offerings, growing numbers of consumers will
drive this trend.

How Trend No. 7
Means Business:
In the struggle for consumers’
attention, there are two options: Pay
out a lot of money for Matrix and
Avatar levels of vividness or get much
smarter at lower-cost “nGagement.”

#virtualnecessity

8.
Hyperlocal Is
the New Global

8. Hyperlocal
Is the New Global
•It’s interesting to know what’s happening in other parts of
the world, but how much does it really matter? Compare it
with what’s happening hyperlocally, right on your doorstep,
which is more likely to be useful and virtually guaranteed to
be relevant.
•All the hot new online services are either about where
people live or work (Groupon in the U.S., Mecom in the
Netherlands and other parts of Europe, ProXiti in France,
Patch in the U.S.) or where you are right now with your
mobile device (Foursquare, Gowalla), so that they can
deliver news, information and deals that are likely to matter
to you.

8. Hyperlocal
Is the New Global
•Hyperlocal media is more than just the traditional local
newspaper or broadcasting delivered through the Internet: It
patches together journalism, bloggers, citizen journalists, and
people taking videos and photos in an online grapevine.
•Hyperlocal media uses the real-time, multimedia, interactive
power of the Internet to strengthen connections within and
between local communities.

How Trend No. 8
Means Business:
With the Internet, businesses can
track consumer choices and adjust
offers to match. Hyperlocal media
makes them even more relevant to
consumers and their communities.

#locoforlocal

9.
USA: No.
Internet: Yes.

9. USA: No.
Internet: Yes.
•Although the United States still has many of the world’s
biggest tech brands, it no longer dominates the action on the
Internet. North America now accounts for just 13.5 percent
of Internet users, compared with 24.2 percent in Europe and
42 percent in Asia.
•Silicon Valley is the spiritual home of the Internet, and the
U.S. government (DARPA) is its spiritual father, but the
Internet is now bigger than both. The Internet has made a
fading United States less important as a physical place in
the world.

9. USA: No.
Internet: Yes.
•Today, many of the best bits of the U.S. are available on the
Internet 24/7: music, movies, sports, TV, keynote speakers
on TED, educational materials. It’s always there virtually, so
there’s less need to go there physically.
•The more time consumers spend online, the more their
cyberspace destinations will blur with physical locations in
their mind.

How Trend No. 9
Means Business:
The Internet is ousting America as the
iconic Land of Dreams. People with
great ideas and determination can
meet up online, make things happen
and make their fortune (without the
green card hassle).

#netgain

10.
English Out,
Globish In

10. English Out,
Globish In
•Ambitious people with an eye on the coming superpower
might be learning Mandarin as a second language, but most
of the rest of the world is learning English. It’s the network
effect at work.
•Globetrotting French businessman Jean-Paul Nerrière noticed
how many non-native speakers struggled with “proper
English” and set about creating a standardized, simplified
form of English with a vocabulary of 1,500 words and a
simple structure—a world language called Globish.

10. English Out,
Globish In
•In keeping with the online-ability imperative, anybody
interested in learning the slimmed-down global English can
go to Globish.com and start learning.
•The Globish initiative has fired up journalist Robert McCrum,
who made an authoritative TV documentary of the English
language 25 years ago. He now sees Globish as the language
of the Internet-powered world.
“English plus Microsoft equals a new cultural
revolution…a global means of communication that is
irrepressibly contagious, adaptable, populist and
subversive.” —Robert McCrum

How Trend No. 10
Means Business:
In data communication, TCP/IP and
HTML enabled people in any country
with any computer to communicate. In
verbal communication, Globish has the
potential to do the same. Brands need
to learn Globish.

#confluency

11.
Long, Sloooow,
Demanding TV

11. Long, Sloooow,
Demanding TV
•For a long time, everything seemed to be getting faster and
shorter—MTV videos, fast-cut movie action sequences and
now millions of YouTube clips. Not much attention required.
•Then came much more demanding long-form TV series with
much less action and much more complex plotlines spread
over many episodes and multiple series—think “Lost,” “The
Wire,” “Deadwood,” “Mad Men.”

11. Long, Sloooow,
Demanding TV
•As a yin to the yang of youth-targeted, fast-twitch TV,
demand for complex long-form TV has grown organically as
mature consumers get drawn in and find themselves hooked.
•Europe has developed a taste for swapping loooong, sloooow
gritty crime dramas shown in the original language with
subtitles—“The Killing” (“Forbrydelsen”) from Denmark,
“Spiral” (“Engrenages”) from France, “Wallander” from
Sweden.

How Trend No. 11
Means Business:
Out in Consumerland, there is an
appetite for content that rewards
adult attention and sophisticated
intelligence. The catch: It requires
those traits from producers and
consumers.

#payattention

11.5Career
Kick Start

11.5 Career
Kick Start
•Some choose to start over; others are forced by circumstance.
Either way, hundreds of thousands of people are embarking
on new careers. Great Recession = Great Kick Start?
•Many older people have been forced back to work because
pensions, savings or investments don’t cover their costs of
living—and increasing life spans mean they’ll need even more.
•Fewer workers means lower costs for businesses—but also
less money for consumers to spend on their products.

How Trend No. 11.5
Means Business:
The more businesses can foster people
starting new careers, the more money
consumers will have to spend on the
products businesses make.

#back2work

What It All Means
•Unexpected quakes (whether the death of Bin Laden or
perma-rattles in Tokyo) cause lasting shudders.
•The real-time news ticker with the stock indices gives us all
a minute-by-minute measure of the ROI of the consuming
life—we have become “bad news bears.”
•“Mycasting” becomes the name of the news dissemination
game, and we’re all in the control booth.
•Miniature, flexible and portable—from the cloud to the idea
of classrooms in backpacks versus backpacks in classrooms.
Have office, will travel (or not).
•Everything is changing faster, more furiously and sometimes
with less purpose than ever. Stress fuels decades of adult life.
•ADD is the new normal. If you can’t multitask, you’re a
white elephant.

Dank je Wel.

2020 Trends

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2020 Trends