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Cyprus
Hydrocarbons
Energy security for the EU
in the pipeline?
January 2012
Author: Harris A. Samaras
Copyright©2012PytheasLimited
Contents
Forward 4
Why Natural Gas? 5
NG vs. LNG 6
The Golden Age of Gas 7
EU and Natural Gas 8
Introduction 10
Licensing for Exploration 11
Surveys & Reports 12
Bilateral Agreements 13
Law & Regulations 14
Cyprus Energy Center 15
Solution to EU NG Shortage 16
Scenario Optimum 18
Scenario Optimum Chart 19
Cyprus – The Energy Hub 20
New Gas Map Europe 21
Challenging Considerations 22
Conclusion 24
Appendix I – Gas Map Europe 30
Appendix II – Middle East, Oil & Gas pipelines 31
Appendix III – World Oil & Gas Reserves 32
Appendix IV – World Oil & Gas Production 33
Appendix V – World Oil & Gas Consumption 34
Appendix VI – Fuel Prices 35
Appendix VII – Energy Biggest Companies 36
Appendix VIII – Sources 37
Appendix IX – About the Author 38
Appendix X – Why Cyprus? 40
Appendix XI – About Pytheas 43
Forward
The confirmation of significant quantities of hydrocarbons in Cyprus, (the Levantine
Basin, the Nile Delta Cone, the Eratosthenes Continental Block and the Herodotus
Basin) may prove to be a tremendous opportunity not only for the island but for the EU
as a whole. The U.S. Geological Survey estimates that the aforementioned areas hold
an estimated 13.8 trillion cubic meters (tcm) of natural gas. Also as per the
BEICIP/FRANLAB and the Institut Français du Pétrole, the Cyprus Exclusive
Economic Zone alone holds an estimated 3 tcm of natural gas.
Cyprus – an EU member country, strategically located in the Eastern Mediterranean is
a long established international business and financial center with the lowest corporate
tax in the EU and about 50 double tax treaties; an established gateway to the world of
international trade with tested legislation and more than adequate infrastructure of all
sorts – has now the potential to becoming a guaranteed primary natural gas source
and transit route to the EU.
Can Cyprus become a guaranteed primary gas source and transit route to the EU?
Cyprus,
a guaranteed
primary natural
gas source and
transit route to
the EU?
4
Why Natural Gas?
Natural gas (NG) is the cleanest-burning
conventional fuel leading to lower emissions
of greenhouse gases and local pollutants.
The factors that drive natural gas demand
and supply increasingly point to a future in
which natural gas plays a fundamental role in
the global energy mix and to achieving the
optimum global energy solution. Global
uncertainties afflicting the energy sector can
be seen as opportunities for natural gas.
It can help to diversify energy supply, and so
improve energy security. It can provide the
flexibility and back-up capacity needed as
more variable capacity comes on-line in
power generation.
5
NG is a
fundamental
component
of the global
energy mix
Fossil Fuel Emission Levels –
Pounds per Billion Btu of Energy Input
Source: International Energy Agency
Pollutant NG Oil Coal
Carbon Dioxide 117,000 164,000 208,000
Carbon Monoxide 40 33 208
Nitrogen Oxides 92 448 457
Sulfur Dioxide 1 1,122 2,591
Particulates 7 84 2,744
Mercury 0.000 0.007 0.016
NG vs. LNG
Natural gas (NG) is a mixture of hydrocarbon and small quantities of non-
hydrocarbons that exists either in the gaseous phase or is in solution in crude oil
in natural underground reservoirs, and which is gaseous at atmospheric
conditions of pressure and temperature.
To transport NG, located far out at sea or in remote regions when laying pipeline
would not be technically or economically feasible, it is converted into liquefied
natural gas (LNG). LNG is natural methane gas that has been chilled to -160°C.
This chilling process, known as liquefaction, takes place in specialized facilities
and condenses the gas to 1/600th of its previous volume. This makes it easier to
ship safely and efficiently aboard LNG tanker vessels.
After arriving at its destination, LNG, is frequently stored as liquid in specially
engineered tanks. For further processing, it is warmed to 0°C, which returns it to
its gaseous state.
LNG is natural
gas that has been
chilled to -160°C.
This process,
liquefaction,
condenses the
gas to 1/600th of
its volume
6
The Golden Age of Gas
The International Energy Agency (IEA)
forecasts that by 2035:
 Global primary natural gas demand will
amount to 5.1 tcm;
 An increase in production equivalent to
about three times the current production of
Russia will be required to simply meet the
growth in gas demand;
 Cumulative investment in gas-supply
infrastructure will be around €6.2 trillion;
 Trade between the main world regions will
more than double, with the increase of
around 620 bcm split evenly between
pipeline gas and LNG;
 Natural gas production will increase
significantly in all regions except Europe.
Gas-supply
infrastructure
by 2035 is
expected to
reach
€6.2 trillion
World energy demand
by fuel
Source: International Energy Agency
7
EU and Natural Gas
According to Eurogas the share of natural gas in
the EU is expected to reach 30% of the primary
energy consumption in 2030 while demand for
the same period will increase by 43%.
Domestic production however will decrease. At
end-2010, European production accounted for
59% of supplies to EU gas markets and is
expected to drop to a third by 2020 and to a
further quarter by 2030. By 2015 a substantial
gap emerges between demand and supply
coming from European production or imported
from outside Europe.
The European gas industry must focus its gas
procurement especially for the period after 2015.
EU27 –
Natural Gas demand outlook by sector
Source: Eurogas
EU27
Natural Gas
demand in
2030 will
increase by
43%
Sector (Mtoe) 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
Commercial
& Residential 180 187 191 193 194
Industry 128 137 145 150 156
Power
generation 158 181 209 226 239
Others 493 535 578 603 625
Total 959 1,040 1,123 1,172 1,214
8
EU and Natural Gas
For the depending on imports European natural gas
industry, the sufficient gas reserves available in the
medium to long run are in countries which are NOT so
accessible in terms of transmission distances or exist
in fields that are increasingly difficult to develop (with
the consequence of rising production and transport
costs).
Taking into account the growing gas demand
worldwide and the decreasing indigenous production
in Europe, it will require huge efforts and substantial
investments of the suppliers to mobilize this gas in
time. Besides, when assessing supply options, it has
to be kept in mind that competition for supply will
become far stiffer especially from North America and
the emerging economies of South-East Asia.
EU27 –
Import dependency from outside Europe
Source: Eurogas
41
48
60
68
71
74
0
20
40
60
80
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
%
EU
competition
for Natural
Gas supply
will become
far stiffer in
the medium
run
9
Introduction
The vulnerability of the EU to energy supply risks is a fact but this
can be no more. If the most conservative data is taken into account
in regard to the natural gas reserves discovered in the exclusive
economic zone (EEZ) of Cyprus and its immediate region in the
Eastern Mediterranean, for the first time ever in European energy
history, the EU is guaranteed an uninterrupted supply of a traditional
energy source.
The area within the Cyprus EEZ which was set as an exploration
area occupies 51,000 km² off the south-eastern coast of the island.
The area has been divided into 13 exploration blocks that are
situated in the N.E. Levantine Basin, and partly in the Herodotus
Basin, adjacent to the Nile Delta Cone and covering the
Eratosthenes Sea Mount. The Florence Ridge is to the North West
of the exploration blocks, the Mediterranean Ridge to the West and
the Latakia Ridge to the East.
Source: Ifremer-CIESM
Cyprus –
Physiography of the Eastern Mediterranean
10
Licensing for Exploration
In 2007 the 1st licensing round for exploration was conducted. One
license was awarded to Noble Energy International Limited for block
12 (or Aphrodite). A production sharing contract was signed with the
Republic of Cyprus in 2008 and the company commenced
exploratory drilling in September 2011 about 160 km offshore
Cyprus.
The 2nd licensing round for exploration is expected to be announced
in the beginning of 2012. Candidate companies would then have
three months to submit their proposals. Government of Cyprus
consultants would subsequently short-list companies and make
recommendations to the Minister of Commerce, Industry and
Tourism (the energy minister), before the cabinet will take any final
decision.
Source: Republic of Cyprus Ministry of Commerce, Industry and Tourism
Cyprus –
Hydrocarbon Exploration Blocks
11
Surveys & Reports
Relevant seismic surveys have been carried out by Petroleum Geo-
Services (PGS) between 2006 and 2008 containing a considerable
amount of data. The fully processed lines of the surveys conducted by
PGS are available for purchase from PGS:
 MC2D - CYP2008;
 MC3D - CYP2007;
 MC2D - CYP2006.
Relevant interpretation reports have been prepared by Beicip-Franlab
and the Energy Service of the Ministry of Commerce, Industry and
Tourism of the Republic of Cyprus (MOCIT). These interpretation reports
can be purchased from the MOCIT for €35,000:
 2D Interpretation report (2009);
 3D Interpretation report (2008);
 2D Interpretation report (2007).
Mr. Per Helge Semb
Manager ME & CIS
Multiclient
Petroleum Geo-Services, Marine EAME
Tel: +47 9061 9961
Fax: +47 6752 6533
Email: per.helge.semb@pgs.com
Mr. Solon Kassinis
Director, Energy Service
Ministry of Commerce, Industry & Tourism
Republic of Cyprus
Tel: +357 22 409 303
Fax: +357 22 304 964
E-mail: skassinis@mcit.gov.cy
12
Bilateral Agreements
Under the United Nations Convention on Law of the Sea of 10
December 1982 (UNCLOS), Cyprus has signed the bilateral agreements
with neighboring countries for the delimitation of their EEZs:
 February 2003
Delimitation agreement of the EEZ with Egypt.
 May 2006
Framework agreement concerning the development of cross-median
line hydrocarbon resources with Egypt.
 May 2006
Confidentiality agreement with Egypt.
 January 2007
Delimitation agreement of the EEZ with Lebanon.
 December 2010
Delimitation of the EEZ with Israel.
 January 2012
Agreement for hydrocarbon co-exploration with Egypt.
MC2D - CYP2008
by Petroleum Geo-Services
Source: Petroleum Geo-Services ASA
13
Laws & Regulations
Hydrocarbon exploration and exploitation of the territorial waters, the
continental shelf and the EEZ of the Republic of Cyprus are governed by
the following laws and regulations:
 The Hydrocarbons (Prospection, Exploration and Exploitation) Law
of 2007 (No.4(I)/2007) & Suppl. III(I) Regulations 2007 and 2009.
 The Hydrocarbons (Prospection, Exploration and Exploitation)
Regulations of 2007 and 2009 (No.51/2007 and No.113/2009).
 The Contiguous Zone Law (2004).
 The EU Directive 2001/42/EC.
 The EU Directive 94/22/EC (2004).
 Strategic Environmental Assessment concerning hydrocarbon
activities within the EEZ of Cyprus (2008).
 UNCLOS 1982/ The Declaration of the EEZ Law (2004).
 Law for the Regulation of the Natural Gas Market (2004).
MC2D - CYP2006
by Petroleum Geo-Services
Source: Petroleum Geo-Services ASA
14
Cyprus Energy Center
Cyprus is in the process of developing an energy center at Vasilikos in the prefecture of
Larnaca (South coast of the island). The Energy Center is envisaged to comprise:
 An onshore LNG import, storage and regasification terminal;
 An oil products import, storage (for both operational and strategic reserves);
 A handling/distribution depot;
 A liquefaction plant;
 A methanol plant.
Electricity Authority Cyprus (EAC) has invited applications for expression of interest, for
participation and investment in the LNG company responsible for the development, financing,
operation and management of the Vasilikos LNG terminal.
A separate entity, DEFA (Public Company for Natural Gas), which is jointly owned by the EAC
and the Government of Cyprus, will be responsible for the import and distribution of the gas.
DEFA has already announced for the Call for Tenders for the Provision of Engineering
Consultancy Services for the Development of a Gas Pipeline Network.
Cyprus,
a Regional
Energy Hub
in the
making
15
Solution to EU NG shortage
The annual NG consumption of the EU amounts
to about 500 bcm. Almost half of it is imported
from Russia, 160 bcm from Algeria and 90 bcm
from Libya. By 2020 the demand for natural gas
in Europe will increase by another 225 bcm. The
total energy deficit (Oil & Gas) of the EU will
therefore reach 845 bcm. These EU requirements
for NG can neither be satisfied by Russia – which
has 44 tcm of NG resources and an annual
production of 600 bcm – as 2/3 of its reserves
and production are allocated for domestic uses,
nor by Algeria and Libya as their reserves
amount to only 6.2 tcm. Now however, the
demand deficit can be satisfied from the newly
discovered and expected NG deposits of the
Eastern Mediterranean.
The deposits
of NG in the
Eastern
Mediterranean
satisfy the EU
needs of 2020
for 35 years
16
MC3D - CYP2007
by Petroleum Geo-Services
Source: Petroleum Geo-Services ASA
Solution to EU NG shortage
According to the USGS, besides the NG deposits
already discovered in Egypt and Israel (~3 tcm),
the deposits that lie in the EEZs of Cyprus, Israel
and Egypt alone are conservatively estimated to
another 10.8 tcm.
This brings the total of proven and potential
reserves to 13.8 tcm; an amount that is almost 12
times more NG than what Europe expects to
receive via the Nabucco Pipeline (1.2 tcm). If 3
tcm is generously subtracted in order to satisfy
the domestic needs of Cyprus, Israel and Egypt
over the next 30 years, the remaining amount of
10.8 tcm could satisfy the EU’s natural gas
requirements by 2020 for 35 years!
The Nabucco
Pipeline,
delayed mainly
because of
“obstacles”
imposed by
Russia is now
obsolete
Projected routes of main pipelines
into Europe
Source: BBC News
17
Scenario Optimum
Up until the liquefaction plant is constructed in Cyprus, the export of the Eastern Mediterranean
NG surplus can by facilitated via compressed natural gas vessels (CNG) loading directly from the
offshore field floating production systems to EU ports. In the short- to medium-term and after the
liquefaction plant is operational, NG can be transported to the EU via the more efficient LNG
vessels (CNG’s volumetric energy density is estimated to be 42% of LNG’s).
In the long-term following further offshore discoveries in the region, the ability to build two or more
pipelines to transport natural gas from Haifa (Israel) via Cyprus to the island of Crete (Greece) and
then to Western Greece and Italy into the European NG network makes only sense. The “East
Med-EU Pipeline” could provide energy security for the EU for at least half a century.
It is also important to note that the estimated giant shale gas reserves located in the area of Shefla
onshore Israel and those in the offshore south of Crete basins and the rest of the Greek EEZ can
only enrich the already estimated substantial volumes. In the longer term, natural gas from Iraq,
Iran, Saudi Arabia and Qatar and even from the Caspian Sea could only make sense to connect to
the “East Med-EU Pipeline” when the political environment allows.
The “East
Med-EU
Pipeline”
seems to
make only
sense
18
Scenario Optimum
Cyprus –
Chart of
Scenario Optimum
for EU energy security
19
Cyprus – The Energy Hub
Cyprus –
Map of
Scenario Optimum
for EU energy security
Source: Pytheas Limited, Soil Water & Life Solutions
20
Copyright©2012PytheasLimited
New Gas Map Europe
A new
natural gas map
for Europe
is on the making?
Possible NG
route from Cyprus
to Europe through
Greece and Italy
21
Copyright © 2012 Pytheas Limited
Challenging considerations
Complex challenges lie ahead for both Cyprus (and the EU):
► Is a natural gas liquefaction plant too expensive an option for Cyprus?
► Should the natural gas liquefaction plant be considered at all or should
Cyprus consider only the pipeline solution to mainland Europe?
► Up until the natural gas liquefaction plant is constructed or pipeline to
mainland Europe is installed, is CNG transportation a feasible option?
► Is CNG transportation a long-term solution?
► Is the installation of the pipeline from Cyprus to mainland Europe
feasible, or the water depth and the underwater terrain forbid such a
task?
► Would Cyprus alone be in the position to safeguard the valuable
pipeline from terrorist activities?
► What if a JV is structured between Cyprus and the EU for the
exploitation of the hydrocarbons in Cyprus and the Eastern
Mediterranean (along with the participation of Israel, Lebanon, Egypt
and Syria)?
22
What if a JV is
structured between
Cyprus and the EU for
the exploitation of the
hydrocarbons in
Cyprus and the Eastern
Mediterranean?
Challenging considerations
► Will the countries in the Levantine Basin, such are Israel and
Lebanon, manage to put aside their differences and cooperate for the
real benefit of their people or would this be the cause of more
tension?
► Should a pipeline running from Cyprus gas fields onto Turkey and
then to the proposed Nabucco Pipeline be a Cyprus (and EU)
consideration at all?
► Is granting companies of Russian interests gas concessions for
Cyprus and the EU a wise decision? If yes, how could Cyprus’ and the
EU’s interests be safeguarded?
► Does Cyprus have the appropriate expertise on board to monitoring
and overseeing the existing and future drilling operations?
► Should Cyprus develop a domestic natural gas distribution network or
not?
► What about the oil deposits (when Block 12 alone is estimated to have
a huge 3.7 billion barrels)? What is the infrastructure required?
23
What about the oil
deposits when Block 12
alone is estimated to
have a huge
3.7 billion barrels?
Conclusion
The vulnerability of the EU to energy supply risks is a fact but this can be no
more. If the most conservative data is taken into account in regard to the
natural gas reserves discovered in the exclusive economic zone (EEZ) of
Cyprus (and the Eastern Mediterranean), for the first time ever in European
energy history, the EU is guaranteed an uninterrupted supply of a traditional
energy source.
Conservative estimates of reserves in the Eastern Mediterranean can satisfy
EU’s NG requirements for at least half a century. Results of hydrocarbon
exploration in Cyprus so far exceeded all expectations. Note that recent
findings of Cyprus’ Block 12 (or Aphrodite) along with those of Israel’s in the
Leviathan block, rank among the largest discovered worldwide in the last 10
years. The amount of gas from these two parcels alone is estimated to equal
half of the known reserves of those of the U.S.; a country with a population of
310 million, whereas the total population of Cyprus and Israel is less than 9
million.
24
The NG
in the Aphrodite and
the Leviathan blocks
is believed to be equal
to half of the known
reserves of the US
Conclusion
Most interestingly, seismic surveys indicate that the other blocks in the Cyprus
EEZ are expected to reveal much more NG deposits, e.g. Block 4, in the
Herodotus Basin, is believed to contain three times more natural gas than Block
12 and a lot more oil…
It is also important to note that the oil deposits are also significant. The 3.7 billion
barrels of recoverable oil deposits estimated to lie within Block 12 alone can be
with current crude oil prices roughly translated into US$330 billion.
As the findings one after the other are confirmed Cyprus will attract more and
more foreign direct investments. Required long term investments in infrastructure,
maintenance, support services, financing and banking, suggest that also job
creation will be long term. It is estimated that during the next decade an additional
300,000 jobs will be required to satisfy the needs of the Cyprus’ hydrocarbon
industry; a phenomenon that will positively affect not only the Cyprus economy
but those of the neighboring countries as well.
25
The estimated oil
deposits of Block 12
alone, at current
prices, are roughly
translated into
US$330 billion
Conclusion
The hydrocarbon discoveries in the Eastern Mediterranean are bound to serve as
a catalyst toward greater cooperation amongst the participant countries. The joint
exploitation between these countries and the launching of joint projects has the
potential to change the whole political and economic scene of the entire region to
the better.
Most importantly the gas-starved EU has to seize this opportunity for a
guaranteed energy source supply. Cyprus, Israel and the EU (with the lead
coordination of the EU and Cyprus) but also Egypt, Lebanon and Syria should
jointly work to ensure that an appropriate framework and solid plan are in place in
order to complete exploration drilling and commence exploitation as quickly as
possible. What if a JV is structured with the EU for the exploitation of the
hydrocarbons in the Eastern Mediterranean along with the participation of
Greece? Note that the participation of Greece is not only important because of
the envisaged pipeline route but also for the substantial hydrocarbon deposits
that are estimated to lie within its EEZ.
26
Greece is important
for both the pipeline
route and estimated
hydrocarbons that lie
within its EEZ
Conclusion
Such a venture will minimize both sovereign and financial risks for all parties
involved. The transit route that should avoid non-EU countries, via a pipeline to
mainland Greece and then to the rest of Europe as described herewith in
Scenario Optimum is the only way for an uninterrupted and guaranteed energy
source supply for the EU.
The damaged Iraq-Syria Pipeline when reinstituted and when the closed Trans-
Arabian Pipeline reopened, can both become an additional source enhancer (and
when the political environment allows); Saudi Arabia, Iraq, Qatar and not only
could also connect to Cyprus in the longer term…
Cyprus, an EU member country, a regional business and financial hub (and an
established investment gateway to and from Russia) is firmly on its way to
becoming an energy superpower and a guaranteed primary natural gas source
and transit route to the EU, of the EU; a hub of reconciliation and regional
stability!
27
Could Cyprus
as an energy hub
transform into
the next
energy superpower?
Conclusion
Cyprus
as a Primary
Natural Gas Source
and Transit Route
to the EU
(of the EU?)
28
Copyright © 2012 Pytheas Limited
I. Map Gas Europe
Europe – Proposed
priority axes
for natural gas
pipelines
by INOGATE
(Year 2003)
30
II. Map Oil & Gas Middle East
Middle East –
Oil & Gas
Pipelines
by the
International
Energy Agency
31
III. World Oil & Gas Reserves
Proved Natural Gas Reserves (tcm) Proved Oil Reserves (‘000 million barrels)
Oil & Gas-
starved EU
has the
least
reserves!
32
Source: British PetroleumSource: British Petroleum
IV. World Oil & Gas Production
EU
has the
lowest
Oil & Gas
Production
33
Natural Gas Production (bcm)
Source: British Petroleum Source: British Petroleum
Oil Production (Million tonnes)
V. World Consumption
Natural Gas Consumption (bcm)
EU
is amongst
the significant
Oil & Gas
Consumers
34
Source: British Petroleum
Oil Consumption (Million tonnes)
Source: British Petroleum
VI. Fuel Prices
Fuel Prices (USD per million Btu)
German
Natural Gas
import price
is significantly higher
than that of the
UK, US and Canada
35
Source: BAFA, Heren Energy Ltd., Energy Intelligence Group
Note: Japan = Japan LNG CIF; German = Average German Import Price CIF; UK = Heren NBP Index;
US = Henry Hub; Canada = Alberta; OECD = Crude oil CIF OECD countries
VII. Energy Biggest Companies
Global Energy Company Top 10 Rankings 2011
36
Source: Platts, Standard & Poor’s
Note: Company data as 6 January 2011
The top 10 energy
company rankings
are dominated by
Oil & Gas giants
combining
$178.9 of profits
VIII. Sources (Alphabetically)
Annales Geophysicae – High resolution
nested model for the Cyprus, NE Levantine
Basin, eastern Mediterranean Sea:
Implementation and climatological runs
BP – Statistical Review of World Energy,
June 2011
CGGVeritas – Regional seismic
interpretation of the hydrocarbon
prospectivity of offshore Syria
CSA International – EIA for exploratory
drilling Block 12, Offshore Cyprus
Eurogas – Natural Gas demand and supply:
Long term outlook to 2030
Eurogas – Pipeline to the future
Eurogas – The role of natural gas in a
sustainable energy market
GIIGNL – The LNG Industry in 2010
JGlobes – The status of hydrocarbon
exploration in Cyprus
PT Online – Israel’s Gas Bonanza
Noble Energy – Press release on Block 12
OGP – Liquefied Natural Gas
PGS – The Levantine Basin draws attention
to upcoming license rounds in Cyprus and
Lebanon
PGS – Eastern Mediterranean megaproject
Pytheas – Cyprus: Finally, energy security
for the EU in the pipeline?
Pytheas – Investing in Cyprus, an EU bridge
to the world of business
PWC – Cyprus hydrocarbon opportunities
Republic of Cyprus Ministry of Commerce,
Industry and Tourism – Petroleum systems
offshore Cyprus
Spectrum – East Mediterranean 2D multi-
client seismic data
The Geophysical Institute of Israel – The
Levant Basin offshore Israel
Technical University of Crete – Economic
and geopolitical importance of Eastern
Mediterranean gas fields for Greece and the
EU
United Nations – UN Convention on the Law
of the Sea of 10 December 1982
USGS – Assessment of undiscovered oil
and gas resources of the Levant Basin
Province, Eastern Mediterranean
Woodrow Wilson Center – Cyprus in the
Eastern Mediterranean: Strategic location,
strategic opportunities
World Energy Council – 2010 survey of
energy resources
World Energy Council – Roadmap towards a
competitive European energy market
World Energy Council – World energy
insight 2011
37
IX. The Author
An Economist and presently the Chairman & CEO of Pytheas, Harris has also worked with the Bank of
America Group, Thomson Financial BankWatch, and Moody’s Investors Service. His expertise lies
primarily in the areas of investment and corporate banking, private equity and finance, corporate
restructuring, risk management and business development. His research and extensive publications in
these areas range across practice rather than theory, economic and business thought,
entrepreneurship and geopolitics.
He has been an adviser to various governments, central banks, financial institutions, and other
corporates and has been a member of the board of directors of multinational organizations.
Harris’ extensive and in depth knowledge of the emerging markets of Central-Eastern Europe, MENA,
Gulf, and Africa is complimented by his diverse expertise in industries such are Banking, Real Estate &
Construction, Hospitality, Minerals & Mining, Agriculture, Fisheries, Environment & Alternative Energy
Sources, Energy, Satellite Telecommunications and Shipping.
Harris A. Samaras
38
X. Why Cyprus?
 An EU member state;
 An EMU member state;
 Democratic country with a free market economy;
 Strategic location at the crossroads of three continents;
 Top notch telecommunications;
 Modern and efficient legal, accounting and banking services based on British
practices;
 Favourable tax regime including 10% rate of corporation tax;
 Double-tax treaties with about 50 countries;
 Bilateral investment agreements with numerous countries;
 Low set up and operating costs;
 Highly qualified managerial, clerical and technical staff;
 Tax system in full compliance with EU requirements and those of the OECD
against harmful tax practices;
 The discovery of substantial quantities of oil & gas in its seabed create immense
investment opportunities and momentum.
There are better
tax concessions
in Cyprus
than just about
anywhere on the
planet
40
X. Why Cyprus?
 Additional tax system provisions to the 10% corporation tax and the
extensive double-tax treaty network advantage, include:
□ Exemption for tax of dividend income (subject to easily met
conditions);
□ Exemption from tax of profits from foreign permanent establishments;
□ Exemption from tax of profits generated from transaction in titles;
□ Exemption from withholding tax on the repatriation of income either in
the form of dividends, interest and on almost all royalties;
□ Access to EU Directives;
□ No controlled foreign corporation legislation;
□ No thin capitalization rules (funding by high debt/equity ratio
possible);
□ Tax neutral reorganizations for both EU and non EU group
companies.
Cyprus
Enjoys a
10% corporate tax and
double-tax treaties
with about
50 countries
41
XI. About Pytheas
Like Pytheas, the ancient Greek explorer, scientist and businessman we
provide access to markets inviting our partners to wander the paths and
explore the places with a partner that possesses, knowledge of
prevailing market dynamics, thorough industry expertise, and above all
keen awareness of geographic idiosyncrasies…
Pytheas is an organization with global outlook, offering a wide range of
sophisticated financial services to companies, governments, institutions,
and individuals.
Considered as one of the world's premier organizations in providing
access to emerging financial markets and economies in transition,
Pytheas services range from advising on corporate strategy and
structure to raising equity and debt capital and managing complex
investment portfolios.
Pytheas' investment management capabilities are among the best in the
industry, offering a wide range of investment products and solutions for
the investment issues faced by our clients throughout the world.
43
XII. Pytheas Main Services
Capital
Raising
Emerging Markets
Research
Strategic
Advisory
Investment
Management
Business
Development
Distress
Management
Risk
Management
Credit Rating
Guidance
Investment
Banking Advisory
Corporate
Finance
M&A
Real
Estate
Private
Credit
Equity
Finance
Minerals &
Mining
44
XIII. Pytheas – Company Pulse
Visit
Pytheas
Company
Pulse
45
XIV. Pytheas Investors Service
The Pytheas Investors Service was established as a vehicle for capital
and investment to advise Pytheas’ clients on how to shape tomorrow’s
business global map – to be a catalyst for growth, development and
diversification by better positioning Pytheas’ clients in the global markets
and in their quest for excellence.
In close cooperation with the rest of Pytheas’ professional network, it
assists and guides clients to clearly identify and establish appropriate
investment opportunities through in-depth research and analysis of the
world's equities, industries, and markets.
Product experts, country specialists and industry analysts work in close
unison and pool their talent to design, recommend, and, when
appropriate, customize and fine-tune investment strategies that clients
can act on in keeping with their portfolio preferences and imperatives.
The breadth and quality of Pytheas' fundamental research and strategic
advice, combined with its in-depth industry knowledge and geographic
specialization, offer investor clients a wealth of information to evaluate
and prioritize their investment decisions.
46
www.pytheas.net
47
Copyright©2012PytheasLimited
Disclaimer
The above notes have been compiled to assist you; however, actions
taken as a result of this document are at the discretion of the reader and
not PYTHEAS or Harris A. Samaras.
Disclaimer
The above notes have been compiled to assist you; however, actions taken as a result of this document are at the discretion of the reader and not PYTHEAS or Harris A. Samaras.
All rights reserved. The material in this publication may not be copied, stored or transmitted without the prior permission of the publishers. Short extracts may be quoted, provided the source is fully acknowledged.
Disclaimer
The above notes have been compiled to assist you; however, actions taken as a result of this document are at the discretion of the reader and not PYTHEAS or Harris A. Samaras.
All rights reserved. The material in this publication may not be copied, stored or transmitted without the prior permission of the publishers. Short extracts may be quoted, provided the source is fully acknowledged.
All rights reserved. The material in this publication may not be copied,
stored or transmitted without the prior permission of the publishers. Short
extracts may be quoted, provided the source is fully acknowledged.

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Cyprus hydrocarbons - Energy security for the EU in the pipeline?

  • 1. Cyprus Hydrocarbons Energy security for the EU in the pipeline? January 2012 Author: Harris A. Samaras
  • 3. Contents Forward 4 Why Natural Gas? 5 NG vs. LNG 6 The Golden Age of Gas 7 EU and Natural Gas 8 Introduction 10 Licensing for Exploration 11 Surveys & Reports 12 Bilateral Agreements 13 Law & Regulations 14 Cyprus Energy Center 15 Solution to EU NG Shortage 16 Scenario Optimum 18 Scenario Optimum Chart 19 Cyprus – The Energy Hub 20 New Gas Map Europe 21 Challenging Considerations 22 Conclusion 24 Appendix I – Gas Map Europe 30 Appendix II – Middle East, Oil & Gas pipelines 31 Appendix III – World Oil & Gas Reserves 32 Appendix IV – World Oil & Gas Production 33 Appendix V – World Oil & Gas Consumption 34 Appendix VI – Fuel Prices 35 Appendix VII – Energy Biggest Companies 36 Appendix VIII – Sources 37 Appendix IX – About the Author 38 Appendix X – Why Cyprus? 40 Appendix XI – About Pytheas 43
  • 4. Forward The confirmation of significant quantities of hydrocarbons in Cyprus, (the Levantine Basin, the Nile Delta Cone, the Eratosthenes Continental Block and the Herodotus Basin) may prove to be a tremendous opportunity not only for the island but for the EU as a whole. The U.S. Geological Survey estimates that the aforementioned areas hold an estimated 13.8 trillion cubic meters (tcm) of natural gas. Also as per the BEICIP/FRANLAB and the Institut Français du Pétrole, the Cyprus Exclusive Economic Zone alone holds an estimated 3 tcm of natural gas. Cyprus – an EU member country, strategically located in the Eastern Mediterranean is a long established international business and financial center with the lowest corporate tax in the EU and about 50 double tax treaties; an established gateway to the world of international trade with tested legislation and more than adequate infrastructure of all sorts – has now the potential to becoming a guaranteed primary natural gas source and transit route to the EU. Can Cyprus become a guaranteed primary gas source and transit route to the EU? Cyprus, a guaranteed primary natural gas source and transit route to the EU? 4
  • 5. Why Natural Gas? Natural gas (NG) is the cleanest-burning conventional fuel leading to lower emissions of greenhouse gases and local pollutants. The factors that drive natural gas demand and supply increasingly point to a future in which natural gas plays a fundamental role in the global energy mix and to achieving the optimum global energy solution. Global uncertainties afflicting the energy sector can be seen as opportunities for natural gas. It can help to diversify energy supply, and so improve energy security. It can provide the flexibility and back-up capacity needed as more variable capacity comes on-line in power generation. 5 NG is a fundamental component of the global energy mix Fossil Fuel Emission Levels – Pounds per Billion Btu of Energy Input Source: International Energy Agency Pollutant NG Oil Coal Carbon Dioxide 117,000 164,000 208,000 Carbon Monoxide 40 33 208 Nitrogen Oxides 92 448 457 Sulfur Dioxide 1 1,122 2,591 Particulates 7 84 2,744 Mercury 0.000 0.007 0.016
  • 6. NG vs. LNG Natural gas (NG) is a mixture of hydrocarbon and small quantities of non- hydrocarbons that exists either in the gaseous phase or is in solution in crude oil in natural underground reservoirs, and which is gaseous at atmospheric conditions of pressure and temperature. To transport NG, located far out at sea or in remote regions when laying pipeline would not be technically or economically feasible, it is converted into liquefied natural gas (LNG). LNG is natural methane gas that has been chilled to -160°C. This chilling process, known as liquefaction, takes place in specialized facilities and condenses the gas to 1/600th of its previous volume. This makes it easier to ship safely and efficiently aboard LNG tanker vessels. After arriving at its destination, LNG, is frequently stored as liquid in specially engineered tanks. For further processing, it is warmed to 0°C, which returns it to its gaseous state. LNG is natural gas that has been chilled to -160°C. This process, liquefaction, condenses the gas to 1/600th of its volume 6
  • 7. The Golden Age of Gas The International Energy Agency (IEA) forecasts that by 2035:  Global primary natural gas demand will amount to 5.1 tcm;  An increase in production equivalent to about three times the current production of Russia will be required to simply meet the growth in gas demand;  Cumulative investment in gas-supply infrastructure will be around €6.2 trillion;  Trade between the main world regions will more than double, with the increase of around 620 bcm split evenly between pipeline gas and LNG;  Natural gas production will increase significantly in all regions except Europe. Gas-supply infrastructure by 2035 is expected to reach €6.2 trillion World energy demand by fuel Source: International Energy Agency 7
  • 8. EU and Natural Gas According to Eurogas the share of natural gas in the EU is expected to reach 30% of the primary energy consumption in 2030 while demand for the same period will increase by 43%. Domestic production however will decrease. At end-2010, European production accounted for 59% of supplies to EU gas markets and is expected to drop to a third by 2020 and to a further quarter by 2030. By 2015 a substantial gap emerges between demand and supply coming from European production or imported from outside Europe. The European gas industry must focus its gas procurement especially for the period after 2015. EU27 – Natural Gas demand outlook by sector Source: Eurogas EU27 Natural Gas demand in 2030 will increase by 43% Sector (Mtoe) 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 Commercial & Residential 180 187 191 193 194 Industry 128 137 145 150 156 Power generation 158 181 209 226 239 Others 493 535 578 603 625 Total 959 1,040 1,123 1,172 1,214 8
  • 9. EU and Natural Gas For the depending on imports European natural gas industry, the sufficient gas reserves available in the medium to long run are in countries which are NOT so accessible in terms of transmission distances or exist in fields that are increasingly difficult to develop (with the consequence of rising production and transport costs). Taking into account the growing gas demand worldwide and the decreasing indigenous production in Europe, it will require huge efforts and substantial investments of the suppliers to mobilize this gas in time. Besides, when assessing supply options, it has to be kept in mind that competition for supply will become far stiffer especially from North America and the emerging economies of South-East Asia. EU27 – Import dependency from outside Europe Source: Eurogas 41 48 60 68 71 74 0 20 40 60 80 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 % EU competition for Natural Gas supply will become far stiffer in the medium run 9
  • 10. Introduction The vulnerability of the EU to energy supply risks is a fact but this can be no more. If the most conservative data is taken into account in regard to the natural gas reserves discovered in the exclusive economic zone (EEZ) of Cyprus and its immediate region in the Eastern Mediterranean, for the first time ever in European energy history, the EU is guaranteed an uninterrupted supply of a traditional energy source. The area within the Cyprus EEZ which was set as an exploration area occupies 51,000 km² off the south-eastern coast of the island. The area has been divided into 13 exploration blocks that are situated in the N.E. Levantine Basin, and partly in the Herodotus Basin, adjacent to the Nile Delta Cone and covering the Eratosthenes Sea Mount. The Florence Ridge is to the North West of the exploration blocks, the Mediterranean Ridge to the West and the Latakia Ridge to the East. Source: Ifremer-CIESM Cyprus – Physiography of the Eastern Mediterranean 10
  • 11. Licensing for Exploration In 2007 the 1st licensing round for exploration was conducted. One license was awarded to Noble Energy International Limited for block 12 (or Aphrodite). A production sharing contract was signed with the Republic of Cyprus in 2008 and the company commenced exploratory drilling in September 2011 about 160 km offshore Cyprus. The 2nd licensing round for exploration is expected to be announced in the beginning of 2012. Candidate companies would then have three months to submit their proposals. Government of Cyprus consultants would subsequently short-list companies and make recommendations to the Minister of Commerce, Industry and Tourism (the energy minister), before the cabinet will take any final decision. Source: Republic of Cyprus Ministry of Commerce, Industry and Tourism Cyprus – Hydrocarbon Exploration Blocks 11
  • 12. Surveys & Reports Relevant seismic surveys have been carried out by Petroleum Geo- Services (PGS) between 2006 and 2008 containing a considerable amount of data. The fully processed lines of the surveys conducted by PGS are available for purchase from PGS:  MC2D - CYP2008;  MC3D - CYP2007;  MC2D - CYP2006. Relevant interpretation reports have been prepared by Beicip-Franlab and the Energy Service of the Ministry of Commerce, Industry and Tourism of the Republic of Cyprus (MOCIT). These interpretation reports can be purchased from the MOCIT for €35,000:  2D Interpretation report (2009);  3D Interpretation report (2008);  2D Interpretation report (2007). Mr. Per Helge Semb Manager ME & CIS Multiclient Petroleum Geo-Services, Marine EAME Tel: +47 9061 9961 Fax: +47 6752 6533 Email: per.helge.semb@pgs.com Mr. Solon Kassinis Director, Energy Service Ministry of Commerce, Industry & Tourism Republic of Cyprus Tel: +357 22 409 303 Fax: +357 22 304 964 E-mail: skassinis@mcit.gov.cy 12
  • 13. Bilateral Agreements Under the United Nations Convention on Law of the Sea of 10 December 1982 (UNCLOS), Cyprus has signed the bilateral agreements with neighboring countries for the delimitation of their EEZs:  February 2003 Delimitation agreement of the EEZ with Egypt.  May 2006 Framework agreement concerning the development of cross-median line hydrocarbon resources with Egypt.  May 2006 Confidentiality agreement with Egypt.  January 2007 Delimitation agreement of the EEZ with Lebanon.  December 2010 Delimitation of the EEZ with Israel.  January 2012 Agreement for hydrocarbon co-exploration with Egypt. MC2D - CYP2008 by Petroleum Geo-Services Source: Petroleum Geo-Services ASA 13
  • 14. Laws & Regulations Hydrocarbon exploration and exploitation of the territorial waters, the continental shelf and the EEZ of the Republic of Cyprus are governed by the following laws and regulations:  The Hydrocarbons (Prospection, Exploration and Exploitation) Law of 2007 (No.4(I)/2007) & Suppl. III(I) Regulations 2007 and 2009.  The Hydrocarbons (Prospection, Exploration and Exploitation) Regulations of 2007 and 2009 (No.51/2007 and No.113/2009).  The Contiguous Zone Law (2004).  The EU Directive 2001/42/EC.  The EU Directive 94/22/EC (2004).  Strategic Environmental Assessment concerning hydrocarbon activities within the EEZ of Cyprus (2008).  UNCLOS 1982/ The Declaration of the EEZ Law (2004).  Law for the Regulation of the Natural Gas Market (2004). MC2D - CYP2006 by Petroleum Geo-Services Source: Petroleum Geo-Services ASA 14
  • 15. Cyprus Energy Center Cyprus is in the process of developing an energy center at Vasilikos in the prefecture of Larnaca (South coast of the island). The Energy Center is envisaged to comprise:  An onshore LNG import, storage and regasification terminal;  An oil products import, storage (for both operational and strategic reserves);  A handling/distribution depot;  A liquefaction plant;  A methanol plant. Electricity Authority Cyprus (EAC) has invited applications for expression of interest, for participation and investment in the LNG company responsible for the development, financing, operation and management of the Vasilikos LNG terminal. A separate entity, DEFA (Public Company for Natural Gas), which is jointly owned by the EAC and the Government of Cyprus, will be responsible for the import and distribution of the gas. DEFA has already announced for the Call for Tenders for the Provision of Engineering Consultancy Services for the Development of a Gas Pipeline Network. Cyprus, a Regional Energy Hub in the making 15
  • 16. Solution to EU NG shortage The annual NG consumption of the EU amounts to about 500 bcm. Almost half of it is imported from Russia, 160 bcm from Algeria and 90 bcm from Libya. By 2020 the demand for natural gas in Europe will increase by another 225 bcm. The total energy deficit (Oil & Gas) of the EU will therefore reach 845 bcm. These EU requirements for NG can neither be satisfied by Russia – which has 44 tcm of NG resources and an annual production of 600 bcm – as 2/3 of its reserves and production are allocated for domestic uses, nor by Algeria and Libya as their reserves amount to only 6.2 tcm. Now however, the demand deficit can be satisfied from the newly discovered and expected NG deposits of the Eastern Mediterranean. The deposits of NG in the Eastern Mediterranean satisfy the EU needs of 2020 for 35 years 16 MC3D - CYP2007 by Petroleum Geo-Services Source: Petroleum Geo-Services ASA
  • 17. Solution to EU NG shortage According to the USGS, besides the NG deposits already discovered in Egypt and Israel (~3 tcm), the deposits that lie in the EEZs of Cyprus, Israel and Egypt alone are conservatively estimated to another 10.8 tcm. This brings the total of proven and potential reserves to 13.8 tcm; an amount that is almost 12 times more NG than what Europe expects to receive via the Nabucco Pipeline (1.2 tcm). If 3 tcm is generously subtracted in order to satisfy the domestic needs of Cyprus, Israel and Egypt over the next 30 years, the remaining amount of 10.8 tcm could satisfy the EU’s natural gas requirements by 2020 for 35 years! The Nabucco Pipeline, delayed mainly because of “obstacles” imposed by Russia is now obsolete Projected routes of main pipelines into Europe Source: BBC News 17
  • 18. Scenario Optimum Up until the liquefaction plant is constructed in Cyprus, the export of the Eastern Mediterranean NG surplus can by facilitated via compressed natural gas vessels (CNG) loading directly from the offshore field floating production systems to EU ports. In the short- to medium-term and after the liquefaction plant is operational, NG can be transported to the EU via the more efficient LNG vessels (CNG’s volumetric energy density is estimated to be 42% of LNG’s). In the long-term following further offshore discoveries in the region, the ability to build two or more pipelines to transport natural gas from Haifa (Israel) via Cyprus to the island of Crete (Greece) and then to Western Greece and Italy into the European NG network makes only sense. The “East Med-EU Pipeline” could provide energy security for the EU for at least half a century. It is also important to note that the estimated giant shale gas reserves located in the area of Shefla onshore Israel and those in the offshore south of Crete basins and the rest of the Greek EEZ can only enrich the already estimated substantial volumes. In the longer term, natural gas from Iraq, Iran, Saudi Arabia and Qatar and even from the Caspian Sea could only make sense to connect to the “East Med-EU Pipeline” when the political environment allows. The “East Med-EU Pipeline” seems to make only sense 18
  • 19. Scenario Optimum Cyprus – Chart of Scenario Optimum for EU energy security 19
  • 20. Cyprus – The Energy Hub Cyprus – Map of Scenario Optimum for EU energy security Source: Pytheas Limited, Soil Water & Life Solutions 20 Copyright©2012PytheasLimited
  • 21. New Gas Map Europe A new natural gas map for Europe is on the making? Possible NG route from Cyprus to Europe through Greece and Italy 21 Copyright © 2012 Pytheas Limited
  • 22. Challenging considerations Complex challenges lie ahead for both Cyprus (and the EU): ► Is a natural gas liquefaction plant too expensive an option for Cyprus? ► Should the natural gas liquefaction plant be considered at all or should Cyprus consider only the pipeline solution to mainland Europe? ► Up until the natural gas liquefaction plant is constructed or pipeline to mainland Europe is installed, is CNG transportation a feasible option? ► Is CNG transportation a long-term solution? ► Is the installation of the pipeline from Cyprus to mainland Europe feasible, or the water depth and the underwater terrain forbid such a task? ► Would Cyprus alone be in the position to safeguard the valuable pipeline from terrorist activities? ► What if a JV is structured between Cyprus and the EU for the exploitation of the hydrocarbons in Cyprus and the Eastern Mediterranean (along with the participation of Israel, Lebanon, Egypt and Syria)? 22 What if a JV is structured between Cyprus and the EU for the exploitation of the hydrocarbons in Cyprus and the Eastern Mediterranean?
  • 23. Challenging considerations ► Will the countries in the Levantine Basin, such are Israel and Lebanon, manage to put aside their differences and cooperate for the real benefit of their people or would this be the cause of more tension? ► Should a pipeline running from Cyprus gas fields onto Turkey and then to the proposed Nabucco Pipeline be a Cyprus (and EU) consideration at all? ► Is granting companies of Russian interests gas concessions for Cyprus and the EU a wise decision? If yes, how could Cyprus’ and the EU’s interests be safeguarded? ► Does Cyprus have the appropriate expertise on board to monitoring and overseeing the existing and future drilling operations? ► Should Cyprus develop a domestic natural gas distribution network or not? ► What about the oil deposits (when Block 12 alone is estimated to have a huge 3.7 billion barrels)? What is the infrastructure required? 23 What about the oil deposits when Block 12 alone is estimated to have a huge 3.7 billion barrels?
  • 24. Conclusion The vulnerability of the EU to energy supply risks is a fact but this can be no more. If the most conservative data is taken into account in regard to the natural gas reserves discovered in the exclusive economic zone (EEZ) of Cyprus (and the Eastern Mediterranean), for the first time ever in European energy history, the EU is guaranteed an uninterrupted supply of a traditional energy source. Conservative estimates of reserves in the Eastern Mediterranean can satisfy EU’s NG requirements for at least half a century. Results of hydrocarbon exploration in Cyprus so far exceeded all expectations. Note that recent findings of Cyprus’ Block 12 (or Aphrodite) along with those of Israel’s in the Leviathan block, rank among the largest discovered worldwide in the last 10 years. The amount of gas from these two parcels alone is estimated to equal half of the known reserves of those of the U.S.; a country with a population of 310 million, whereas the total population of Cyprus and Israel is less than 9 million. 24 The NG in the Aphrodite and the Leviathan blocks is believed to be equal to half of the known reserves of the US
  • 25. Conclusion Most interestingly, seismic surveys indicate that the other blocks in the Cyprus EEZ are expected to reveal much more NG deposits, e.g. Block 4, in the Herodotus Basin, is believed to contain three times more natural gas than Block 12 and a lot more oil… It is also important to note that the oil deposits are also significant. The 3.7 billion barrels of recoverable oil deposits estimated to lie within Block 12 alone can be with current crude oil prices roughly translated into US$330 billion. As the findings one after the other are confirmed Cyprus will attract more and more foreign direct investments. Required long term investments in infrastructure, maintenance, support services, financing and banking, suggest that also job creation will be long term. It is estimated that during the next decade an additional 300,000 jobs will be required to satisfy the needs of the Cyprus’ hydrocarbon industry; a phenomenon that will positively affect not only the Cyprus economy but those of the neighboring countries as well. 25 The estimated oil deposits of Block 12 alone, at current prices, are roughly translated into US$330 billion
  • 26. Conclusion The hydrocarbon discoveries in the Eastern Mediterranean are bound to serve as a catalyst toward greater cooperation amongst the participant countries. The joint exploitation between these countries and the launching of joint projects has the potential to change the whole political and economic scene of the entire region to the better. Most importantly the gas-starved EU has to seize this opportunity for a guaranteed energy source supply. Cyprus, Israel and the EU (with the lead coordination of the EU and Cyprus) but also Egypt, Lebanon and Syria should jointly work to ensure that an appropriate framework and solid plan are in place in order to complete exploration drilling and commence exploitation as quickly as possible. What if a JV is structured with the EU for the exploitation of the hydrocarbons in the Eastern Mediterranean along with the participation of Greece? Note that the participation of Greece is not only important because of the envisaged pipeline route but also for the substantial hydrocarbon deposits that are estimated to lie within its EEZ. 26 Greece is important for both the pipeline route and estimated hydrocarbons that lie within its EEZ
  • 27. Conclusion Such a venture will minimize both sovereign and financial risks for all parties involved. The transit route that should avoid non-EU countries, via a pipeline to mainland Greece and then to the rest of Europe as described herewith in Scenario Optimum is the only way for an uninterrupted and guaranteed energy source supply for the EU. The damaged Iraq-Syria Pipeline when reinstituted and when the closed Trans- Arabian Pipeline reopened, can both become an additional source enhancer (and when the political environment allows); Saudi Arabia, Iraq, Qatar and not only could also connect to Cyprus in the longer term… Cyprus, an EU member country, a regional business and financial hub (and an established investment gateway to and from Russia) is firmly on its way to becoming an energy superpower and a guaranteed primary natural gas source and transit route to the EU, of the EU; a hub of reconciliation and regional stability! 27 Could Cyprus as an energy hub transform into the next energy superpower?
  • 28. Conclusion Cyprus as a Primary Natural Gas Source and Transit Route to the EU (of the EU?) 28 Copyright © 2012 Pytheas Limited
  • 29.
  • 30. I. Map Gas Europe Europe – Proposed priority axes for natural gas pipelines by INOGATE (Year 2003) 30
  • 31. II. Map Oil & Gas Middle East Middle East – Oil & Gas Pipelines by the International Energy Agency 31
  • 32. III. World Oil & Gas Reserves Proved Natural Gas Reserves (tcm) Proved Oil Reserves (‘000 million barrels) Oil & Gas- starved EU has the least reserves! 32 Source: British PetroleumSource: British Petroleum
  • 33. IV. World Oil & Gas Production EU has the lowest Oil & Gas Production 33 Natural Gas Production (bcm) Source: British Petroleum Source: British Petroleum Oil Production (Million tonnes)
  • 34. V. World Consumption Natural Gas Consumption (bcm) EU is amongst the significant Oil & Gas Consumers 34 Source: British Petroleum Oil Consumption (Million tonnes) Source: British Petroleum
  • 35. VI. Fuel Prices Fuel Prices (USD per million Btu) German Natural Gas import price is significantly higher than that of the UK, US and Canada 35 Source: BAFA, Heren Energy Ltd., Energy Intelligence Group Note: Japan = Japan LNG CIF; German = Average German Import Price CIF; UK = Heren NBP Index; US = Henry Hub; Canada = Alberta; OECD = Crude oil CIF OECD countries
  • 36. VII. Energy Biggest Companies Global Energy Company Top 10 Rankings 2011 36 Source: Platts, Standard & Poor’s Note: Company data as 6 January 2011 The top 10 energy company rankings are dominated by Oil & Gas giants combining $178.9 of profits
  • 37. VIII. Sources (Alphabetically) Annales Geophysicae – High resolution nested model for the Cyprus, NE Levantine Basin, eastern Mediterranean Sea: Implementation and climatological runs BP – Statistical Review of World Energy, June 2011 CGGVeritas – Regional seismic interpretation of the hydrocarbon prospectivity of offshore Syria CSA International – EIA for exploratory drilling Block 12, Offshore Cyprus Eurogas – Natural Gas demand and supply: Long term outlook to 2030 Eurogas – Pipeline to the future Eurogas – The role of natural gas in a sustainable energy market GIIGNL – The LNG Industry in 2010 JGlobes – The status of hydrocarbon exploration in Cyprus PT Online – Israel’s Gas Bonanza Noble Energy – Press release on Block 12 OGP – Liquefied Natural Gas PGS – The Levantine Basin draws attention to upcoming license rounds in Cyprus and Lebanon PGS – Eastern Mediterranean megaproject Pytheas – Cyprus: Finally, energy security for the EU in the pipeline? Pytheas – Investing in Cyprus, an EU bridge to the world of business PWC – Cyprus hydrocarbon opportunities Republic of Cyprus Ministry of Commerce, Industry and Tourism – Petroleum systems offshore Cyprus Spectrum – East Mediterranean 2D multi- client seismic data The Geophysical Institute of Israel – The Levant Basin offshore Israel Technical University of Crete – Economic and geopolitical importance of Eastern Mediterranean gas fields for Greece and the EU United Nations – UN Convention on the Law of the Sea of 10 December 1982 USGS – Assessment of undiscovered oil and gas resources of the Levant Basin Province, Eastern Mediterranean Woodrow Wilson Center – Cyprus in the Eastern Mediterranean: Strategic location, strategic opportunities World Energy Council – 2010 survey of energy resources World Energy Council – Roadmap towards a competitive European energy market World Energy Council – World energy insight 2011 37
  • 38. IX. The Author An Economist and presently the Chairman & CEO of Pytheas, Harris has also worked with the Bank of America Group, Thomson Financial BankWatch, and Moody’s Investors Service. His expertise lies primarily in the areas of investment and corporate banking, private equity and finance, corporate restructuring, risk management and business development. His research and extensive publications in these areas range across practice rather than theory, economic and business thought, entrepreneurship and geopolitics. He has been an adviser to various governments, central banks, financial institutions, and other corporates and has been a member of the board of directors of multinational organizations. Harris’ extensive and in depth knowledge of the emerging markets of Central-Eastern Europe, MENA, Gulf, and Africa is complimented by his diverse expertise in industries such are Banking, Real Estate & Construction, Hospitality, Minerals & Mining, Agriculture, Fisheries, Environment & Alternative Energy Sources, Energy, Satellite Telecommunications and Shipping. Harris A. Samaras 38
  • 39.
  • 40. X. Why Cyprus?  An EU member state;  An EMU member state;  Democratic country with a free market economy;  Strategic location at the crossroads of three continents;  Top notch telecommunications;  Modern and efficient legal, accounting and banking services based on British practices;  Favourable tax regime including 10% rate of corporation tax;  Double-tax treaties with about 50 countries;  Bilateral investment agreements with numerous countries;  Low set up and operating costs;  Highly qualified managerial, clerical and technical staff;  Tax system in full compliance with EU requirements and those of the OECD against harmful tax practices;  The discovery of substantial quantities of oil & gas in its seabed create immense investment opportunities and momentum. There are better tax concessions in Cyprus than just about anywhere on the planet 40
  • 41. X. Why Cyprus?  Additional tax system provisions to the 10% corporation tax and the extensive double-tax treaty network advantage, include: □ Exemption for tax of dividend income (subject to easily met conditions); □ Exemption from tax of profits from foreign permanent establishments; □ Exemption from tax of profits generated from transaction in titles; □ Exemption from withholding tax on the repatriation of income either in the form of dividends, interest and on almost all royalties; □ Access to EU Directives; □ No controlled foreign corporation legislation; □ No thin capitalization rules (funding by high debt/equity ratio possible); □ Tax neutral reorganizations for both EU and non EU group companies. Cyprus Enjoys a 10% corporate tax and double-tax treaties with about 50 countries 41
  • 42.
  • 43. XI. About Pytheas Like Pytheas, the ancient Greek explorer, scientist and businessman we provide access to markets inviting our partners to wander the paths and explore the places with a partner that possesses, knowledge of prevailing market dynamics, thorough industry expertise, and above all keen awareness of geographic idiosyncrasies… Pytheas is an organization with global outlook, offering a wide range of sophisticated financial services to companies, governments, institutions, and individuals. Considered as one of the world's premier organizations in providing access to emerging financial markets and economies in transition, Pytheas services range from advising on corporate strategy and structure to raising equity and debt capital and managing complex investment portfolios. Pytheas' investment management capabilities are among the best in the industry, offering a wide range of investment products and solutions for the investment issues faced by our clients throughout the world. 43
  • 44. XII. Pytheas Main Services Capital Raising Emerging Markets Research Strategic Advisory Investment Management Business Development Distress Management Risk Management Credit Rating Guidance Investment Banking Advisory Corporate Finance M&A Real Estate Private Credit Equity Finance Minerals & Mining 44
  • 45. XIII. Pytheas – Company Pulse Visit Pytheas Company Pulse 45
  • 46. XIV. Pytheas Investors Service The Pytheas Investors Service was established as a vehicle for capital and investment to advise Pytheas’ clients on how to shape tomorrow’s business global map – to be a catalyst for growth, development and diversification by better positioning Pytheas’ clients in the global markets and in their quest for excellence. In close cooperation with the rest of Pytheas’ professional network, it assists and guides clients to clearly identify and establish appropriate investment opportunities through in-depth research and analysis of the world's equities, industries, and markets. Product experts, country specialists and industry analysts work in close unison and pool their talent to design, recommend, and, when appropriate, customize and fine-tune investment strategies that clients can act on in keeping with their portfolio preferences and imperatives. The breadth and quality of Pytheas' fundamental research and strategic advice, combined with its in-depth industry knowledge and geographic specialization, offer investor clients a wealth of information to evaluate and prioritize their investment decisions. 46
  • 48. Copyright©2012PytheasLimited Disclaimer The above notes have been compiled to assist you; however, actions taken as a result of this document are at the discretion of the reader and not PYTHEAS or Harris A. Samaras. Disclaimer The above notes have been compiled to assist you; however, actions taken as a result of this document are at the discretion of the reader and not PYTHEAS or Harris A. Samaras. All rights reserved. The material in this publication may not be copied, stored or transmitted without the prior permission of the publishers. Short extracts may be quoted, provided the source is fully acknowledged. Disclaimer The above notes have been compiled to assist you; however, actions taken as a result of this document are at the discretion of the reader and not PYTHEAS or Harris A. Samaras. All rights reserved. The material in this publication may not be copied, stored or transmitted without the prior permission of the publishers. Short extracts may be quoted, provided the source is fully acknowledged. All rights reserved. The material in this publication may not be copied, stored or transmitted without the prior permission of the publishers. Short extracts may be quoted, provided the source is fully acknowledged.