MBA (2018) Northern University of Malaysia Subject : Supply Chain Dynamics Result : A

1. A Framework for Evaluating the Dynamic Impacts
of a Congestion Pricing Policy for a Transportation
in Kuala Lumpur Metropolitan Area
BJMP 6643 Supply Chain Dynamics

2. Agenda
• Introduction
• Problem Identification / Recognition /
Understanding
• System Conceptualization and Dynamic
Hypothesis Development
• Model Formulation and Development
• Policy Design and Evaluation
• Conclusion
• References

3. Introduction
Transportation in Malaysia was developed during
British colonial rule, Malaysia's road network is
extensive, covering 329,727kilometers, and including
1,492.3km of expressways. The main highway of the
country extends over 800 km, reaching the Thai
border from Singapore. The main modes of transport
in Peninsular Malaysia include buses, trains, cars and
to an extent, commercial travel on airplanes.

4. Modes of
transport
•Bus
•Car
•ERL
•MRT
•Train /
Commuter
•LRT / LRT3
•Monorel

5. Socio-economic Background
Travel demand growth has been promoted by several
factors in the KL Metropolitan Area, including:
• Population growth in the city of Kuala Lumpur (KL) itself is
expected to be about 2% per year while some of the outer
areas 8%.
• Vision 2020 targets real GDP growth of 7%
• Rapidly rising average incomes and increasing female
participation in the workforce.

6. • Average wages for males and females increased 40% and
63%.
• The working age group between 15 to 64 years increased
from 59.6% in 1991 to 64.4% in 2020, creating more
demand during peak hours as drivers commute to work.
• Kuala Lumpur is 100% urbanized and Selangor has
reached 87.6% urbanization.
• KLMA grew almost three times between 1991 and 2000.
The state of Selangor had the highest growth rate of 6.1%
Socio-economic Background

7. Problems and Issues
• Multiple urban expressways –
controlled by different
authorities – transport very high
volumes of traffic within a
narrow corridor and lack
coordination or integration with
the adjacent traffic networks.
• Urban road
networks seem to
lack a hierarchal
system
• Road accidents occur frequently,
which further disrupt traffic flows
• Economic activities are
concentrated in the
Kuala Lumpur city center
and follow major
arterials radiating from
the center.

8. Implications
• Public transport is poorly integrated and losing mode share.
• Population and commercial growth on the “urban fringe” is further
increasing private automobile dependency.
• Private transport dominates the KLMA with an 80% mode share of all
motorized trips, leaving only 20% using public transport.
• Bus services are unreliable, duplicate routes, overcrowded during peak
hours, use poor quality vehicles, and have large amounts of debt

9. What is Congestion Pricing?

11. System Conceptualization
• The model was adopted
from S.Liu et.al, 2010
on his study in major
cities.
• Research on travel
mode choice indicates
that perceptions and
information about
alternative modes of
transportation are
important issues to
consider.
• Misperceptions act as a
major barrier for mode
choice and information
about cost, duration,
comfort and
convenience can lead to
the consideration of
alternatives.
• Distorted perceptions
play a significant role in
people’s decision to
use cars

12. System Conceptualization
• Concerns about travel time
are a major obstacle in
getting people to switch
from cars to alternative
transportation modes.
• Transportation we make
estimates based on
experience and intuition.
• Quality of service does
affect the decision to use
mass transit
• Time costs such as
increased average travel
time and unexpected
delays.
• Physical costs such as,
extra fuel costs and faster
depreciation of vehicles.
• Environmental costs
associated with noise and
air pollution

13. Travelers
Potential
Travelers
contact with
travelers
contact of
nontravelers
with travelers
potential
traveler
concentration
total population
around designated
congestion pricing
area
conversion rate
defuzzified effect of
people’s perception on
probability of requiring
mobility
probability of requiring
mobility
perception of people with
respect to bus supply and
demand
perception of people with
respect to level of
congestion
perception of people with
respect to metro supply
and demand
perception of people with
respect to cost and value of
driving private car
sociability
R – word
of mouth
B – market
satuation
Mobilityinducedbysocial
networkingactivities
Travel Demand Dynamics

14. Bus Funding
Total Buses
Revenue from
Pricing Scheme
revenue
accumulation
bus increment
funding fraction
using for bus
bus aging
normal funding
for bus increment
price per bus
bus life time
government
administrative delay
bus buildup
delay
appropriation
delay for bus
funding
total PCUs
PCUs per bus
level of
congestion
external cost
per mile
congestion
charging price
bus
discrepancy
R1 –Worsened
congestion
with increased
bus capacity
B1 – Bus
carrying
capacity
restriction
fraction of
disabled people
total cars subject
to pricing
fraction of
public vehicles
fraction of
local residents
discount for
local residents
average trip
miles
multiplier of
congestion
charging price
PCUs per car
total lane
miles within
pricing area
Theeffectofbuscapacity
changeoncongestionpricing
Travel Demand Dynamics

15. Bus Funding
Total Buses
Revenue from
Pricing Scheme
funding fraction
using for bus
bus aging
normal funding
for bus increment
Travelers
Potential
Travelers
conversion rate
Total Bus
Demand
Total Car
Demand
total car
running
total PCUs
level of
congestion
ratio of bus supply
and demand
perception with
respect to bus
supply vs demand
new
demand
for bus
new
demand
for car
time delay in
choosing
transportation
mode
B2 – Increased bus
demand reduces
perception with
respect to bus supply
and demand
passenger delivered
per pricing period
external cost
per mile
congestion
charging price
R2 – perception of
people with respect to
bus supply and demand
increases bus supply
revenue
accumulation
bus increment
carpool
multiplier
average
miles trip
Theeffectofperceptionwithrespectto
buslevelofserviceonbuscapacity
Supply Dynamics of
Mass Transit

16. Bus Funding
Total Buses
Revenue from
Pricing Scheme
revenue
accumulation
funding fraction
using for bus
bus aging
normal funding
for bus increment
bus increment
Total Bus
Demand
Total Car
Demand
ratio of bus supply
and demand
passenger delivered
per pricing period
switching from
car to bus
total car
running
total PCUs
level of
congestion
external cost
per mile
congestion
charging price
perception with
respect to bus
supply vs demand
defuzzified effect
of perception on
switching from
car to bus
B3 –perception
with respect to
bus supply and
demand
perception with
respect to level
of congestion B4 –perception
with respect to
congestion on
car demand
perception with
respect to driving
cost of car
B6 –perception
with respect to
driving cost of
car
B5 –perception
with respect to
bus supply vs.
demand on
congestion
Theeffectofpeoples’perceptions
ontheswitchingbehavior
betweenbusandcar
Representation and
impact of linguistic
variables

17. Good Congestion Pricing Policy
Dewan Bandaraya
Kuala Lumpur
• Clearly defined goals
• Part of an overall transport
strategy
• Hypothecated revenues for
transport improvements
instead of general
government funds
• Easy for visitors and
infrequent users
• Flexible so it can
accommodate new
objectives in future
• Consideration of differences
between vehicle types
• Starting simple and being
understandable for drivers
• Predictable prices so drivers
can make appropriate
decisions ahead of time
• Perceived as effective by the
public
• Perceived as fair by the
public
• Exercising other controls,
specifically land-use, in
tandem

18. Issues with Congestion Pricing Policy
Dewan Bandaraya
Kuala Lumpur
•Political, and some public opposition
• Failure of transport
planners to present
convincing arguments as
to the benefits of
congestion pricing
• Institutional weakness to
plan, design, implement,
and manage a scheme on
a continuous basis
• Legal and institutional
constraints associated
with direct charging
for road use
• Lack of legal framework
for dealing with
offenders (e.g. “owner”
versus “driver” liability)

19. Alternative Pricing Policy
• Variably priced lanes, involving variable tolls on separated
lanes within a highway, such as Express Toll Lanes or HOT
Lanes, i.e. High Occupancy Toll lanes
• Variable tolls on entire roadways – both on toll roads and
bridges, as well as on existing toll-free facilities during rush
hours
• Cordon charges – either variable or fixed charges to drive
within or into a congested area within a city
• Area-wide charges – per-mile charges on all roads within an
area that may vary by level of congestion

20. Conclusion
• Provides a modeling framework based on the system dynamics
approach by which policy makers can understand the dynamic and
complex nature of traffic congestion within a transportation
socioeconomic system representation of a metropolitan area.
• The framework offers policy makers an assessment platform that
focuses on the short- and long-term system behaviors arising from an
area-wide congestion pricing policy along with other congestion
mitigation policies.
• Within this framework, improved bus and metro capacities contribute
to the supply dynamics which in turn affect the travel demand of
individuals and their choice of different transportation modes.

21. • Work travel and social networking activities are assumed to generate
additional travel demand dynamics that are affected by travelers’
perception of the level of service of the different transportation
modes, their perception of the congestion level, and the associated
traveling costs.
• It is assumed that the, population, tourism and employment growth
are exogenous factors that affect demand.
• This study builds on a previously formulated approach where fuzzy
logic concepts are used to represent linguistic variables assumed to
describe consumer perceptions about transportation conditions.
Conclusion

22. Thank you
Prepared by;
822481 Hafizullah Mohd Amin
822418 Siti Nur Ayunnie Bt Mirin
821113 Azyati Ilyani Bt. Aznan
822416 Muhammad Zuhadi Shamsudin
822802 Ardoni bin Saharil