Imagining a Green, Beautiful Oak Bay in 2034

1. Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com Imagining a Beautiful Green Future Oak Bay, 2034 Guy Dauncey Oak Bay Heritage Society, 2014

2. Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com Our first home in Oak Bay

3. Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com Our second home in Oak Bay

4. Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com

8. Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com Heritage: to me that means „built with love,‟ which makes us want to preserve it.

9. Big picture: we have come a long way from this…

10. To this…

11. Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com To this…

14. Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com but…

15. Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com Smithore Dreamstime.com We have also come to this…

19. Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com GDP = Gross Depletion of the Planet

20. Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com Gross Depletion of the Planet + Yield - Costs = Profit

21. Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com Gross Depletion of the Planet

25. Garth Lenz

27. Garth Lenz

29. Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com Liquefied Natural Gas - also a Fossil Fuel

30. Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com As we burn the fossil fuels… Guy Dauncey 2007 www.earthfuture.com CO2 CO2 CO2 CO2 CO2 CO2 100 million tonnes a day = 4 million tonnes an hour = 67,000 tonnes a minute = 1,000 tonnes a second

31. Climate Emergency

40. The last time the world was 3°C warmer the sea level was 25 metres higher

41. 2 metres 10 metres 18 metres 25 metres

42. 1 metre sea-level rise http://flood.firetree.net

43. 3 metres sea-level rise http://flood.firetree.net

44. Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com 1 metre sea-level rise

45. Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com 20 metre sea-level rise

46. We have also come to this…

47. Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com And this… And this…

49. The power of our vision must be stronger than the power of our fears

50. Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com “The future belongs to those who believe in the beauty of their dreams.” ― Eleanor Roosevelt

51. Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com "Dreams are extremely important. You can't do it unless you can imagine it.” - George Lucas

53. Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com So what is our vision of a beautiful, desirable future for Oak Bay?

54. Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com Seven Themes 1: Transportation without Fossil Fuels 2: The Return of Nature 3: Local Urban Farming 4: The Streets Where We Live 5: Affordable Housing 6: Energy without Fossil Fuels 7: How Do We Make It Happen?

55. Transportation without Oil

57. Mama, waaah! Where are you?

58. The Joyful Pedestrian

66. Neighbourhood Walkability Audit www.walklive.org

67. Toronto Walking School Bus

68. The Joyful Cyclist

69. In Holland, 40% of all traffic movement is by bicycle

70. Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.comCRD Pedestrian and Cycling Master Plan

73.  Safe bike lanes and routes  Good bike parking  Cycling education in schools

83. Electric Bikes

86. The Copenhagen Wheel

88. Tony‟s Trailers www.tonystrailers.com

94. The Joyful Transit Rider

99. Free transit, paid in city taxes From 1996-2006 ridership increased from 1,000 to 12,600 riders a day Payment is now $1 per ride. Hasselt, Belgium

100. Real-time electronic bus stops

101. 2034 Heritage Oak Bay Bus Shelters

109. Stockholm – 200 buses run on biogas from sewage treatment

110. 100% Electric Buses

111. OLEV On-Line Electric Vehicle, South Korea

112. Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com Small local connector buses

113. See Victoria Carshare Coop 650 members share 23 vehicles www.victoriacarshare.ca The Happy Car Sharer

115. Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com 2014

116. Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com 2034

117. Peer-to-Peer Car-Sharing Vehicles owners earn up to $300 a month

118. Top Hiroko EV

119. Top

120. Renault Twizy EV  2 seats, 100 km range  80 kph, 3.5 hours recharge  $9,700 + $60/month battery lease

121. In UK: $10,600 + $65 monthly battery lease charge Top

122. Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com Nissan Leaf Electric - 120 km range

123. Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com Smart Electric – 135 km range

124. Mitsubishi MiEV – 150 km range

125. Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com Toyota RAV4 EV - 148 km range

126. Tesla Model-X: 300-400 km range

128. 10,000 km = 1,500 kWh 1,500 kwh @ 10 cents = $13 a month Gas 10 litres @ $1.30 litre = $130 a month The Cost of Power for Electric Cars EV Bargain!! 10 times cheaper to run!

129. 1.5 kW solar PV $6,000 5% 25 year mortgage on $6,000 = $35 a month Gas 10 litres @ $1.30 litre = $130 a month

130. Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com No fossil fuel pollution = clear skies

131. Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com 2: The Return of Nature

139. Guy Dauncey 2011 www.earthfuture.com Brooklyn Public School 216 Arturo Toscanini, New York Turning dull concrete schoolyards…

140. Guy Dauncey 2011 www.earthfuture.com into Green Schoolyards

142. Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com Restoring Bowker Creek

145. Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com Rainwater Storage

147. Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com Semiahmoo Transit Station Surrey, BC, Canada Bringing greenery into our towns and cities…

148. Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com www.greenovergrey.com

149. Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com Hundertwasserhaus, Vienna

151. Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com Musee du Quai Branly, Paris Patrick Blanc, Le Mur Vegetal

152. Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com Athenaeum Hotel, London Patrick Blanc

153. Guy Dauncey 2014 www.earthfuture.com 3: Urban Farming

154. Food imported to Vancouver Island: 95%

156. Guy Dauncey 2014 www.earthfuture.com Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.c

166. Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com Boulevards being „vegetablized‟

172. Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com Schools Growing Their Own Food

177. Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com4: The Streets Where We Live

178. Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com London: a Garden Bridge across the Thames Thomas Heatherwick

180. Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com The Highline Converted Railway, New York

181. Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com Cheonggyecheon, Seoul, South Korea Before and After

182. Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com Cheonggyecheon, Seoul, South Korea

214. Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com Creekside Commons Cohousing, Courtenay

219. Guy Dauncey 2014 www.earthfuture.com Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.cPortland, Oregon www.CityRepair.org

224. Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com 5: Affordable Housing

228. Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com Affordability Initiatives Inclusionary Zoning: eg all new developments must include 20% affordable and 15% low income units

229. Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com Affordability Initiatives Density Bonusing: Additional units in return for extra community benefits

230. Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com Affordability Initiatives Secondary Suites… But with a “no cars” covenant

233. Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com Car-Free Laneway Housing

235. Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com Rooftop Housing

236. Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com Communal ownership

237. Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com A Community Land Trust buys land for affordable housing Hannah Wittman/Michelle Colussi

238. Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com $$ for the Community Land Trust • Progressively increasing tax on real estate sales over $2 million • 15% sales tax on properties bought through offshore companies • Annual levy on properties registered offshore for tax reasons • Escalating tax on empty properties to stop developers from sitting on them

239. Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com Micro-homes 502 Alexander St Vancouver 280 sq ft 12 units, base cost $85,000 each CMHC

240. Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com Communal Renting legal for more than five people

241. Guy Dauncey 2014 www.earthfuture.com Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.c 6: Energy without Fossil Fuels

243. 2014: 4 kW PV = $16,000 4,400 kWh year Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com

244. 2034: 4 kW PV = $6,000 4,400 kWh year Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com Will save $30,000 - $60,000 over the 30 year life of the panels

245. 100 GW in 2012 Solar PV 7000% increase since 2000 Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com

246. Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com 134 GW in 2013 9000% increase since 2000

247. Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com Solar Hot Water

249. Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com Air Source Solar Heat

250. Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com Water-Source Solar Heat

251. Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com Victoria, BC www.bernhardtpassive.com

252. Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com Construction costs: 4.3% more per square foot

253. Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com Monthly net energy savings more than the increased mortgage

258. Guy Dauncey 2011 www.earthfuture.com Neolithic Era Ancient Egypt Roman Empire Islamic Golden Age 10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 0 The Age of Oil ………………………………………. The last 10,000 years

259. Guy Dauncey 2011 www.earthfuture.com The last 10,000 years ................................................... What happens here, when we stop using oil?

260. Guy Dauncey 2011 www.earthfuture.com A billion years The Sun will not begin to turn into a Red Giant for more than a billion years. That‟s 100,000 periods of 10,000 years

261. Guy Dauncey 2011 www.earthfuture.com A billion years The Sun does not begin to turn into a Red Giant for more than a billion years. And with every passing year, solar technology will improve and get cheaper.

262. Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com 7: A Cooperative Economy Businesses flourishing in harmony with other businesses, and with workers, community, nature and the world.

263. Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com Many businesses have become Benefit Corporations

265. Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com Most businesses have Women Directors on the Board “Companies with more Women Board Directors experience higher financial performance, according to latest Catalyst Bottom Line Report.”

266. Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com All businesses are incentivized to acquire Green Business Certification

267. Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com Youth Enterprise Initiatives flourish

268. Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com Time-banking is flourishing VANCOUVER

269. Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com Student Debt problems have been solved

270. Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com The Oregon Solution: Pay It Forward

271. The Sharing Economy is thriving

272. Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com A Good Minimum Wage is Normal…

273. Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com A Happy, Resilient Future More walking, biking, bus, carsharing Lower transport costs More urban food gardens Cheaper and healthier eating Innovative affordable housing Lower housing costs Stronger neighbourhoods More friends, more real community More urban greenery More inner space, and peace Stronger community economy More financial security Green, energy-efficient homes Lower energy costs No more fossil fuels Clean air, clear sky, quiet city More civic engagement Healthier political realm Basic Income Less poverty, fear and homelessness More arts, music and neighbourhood celebration More friends, more happiness, more love

274. Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com 7: How Do We Make It Happen?

275. Community engagement

276. Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com Engaging Young People www.leadingchangenetwork.com

277. Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com Electronic ballots Voting aged reduced to 16 Transferable Voting for City Hall $100 tax credit for voting

278. Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com Design the Future Community Meetings

279. Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com A Green, Sustainable Future is not an „Option‟ It is an Urgent Necessity

281. Special Price $5

285. Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com This is about us, our planet, our children and our future.

287. Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com www.slideshare.net/GuyDauncey

288. Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com Guy Dauncey www.earthfuture.com

Imagining a Green, Beautiful Oak Bay in 2034

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