1. 17/12/2014 11:09 amMad, weak and alone, but still a threat | Herald Sun
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Mad, weak and alone, but still a threat
A hostage runs to an armed tactical response police officer for safety after escaping from
the Lindt cafe siege in Sydney. Picture: AP
THE dark day that we have feared for so long has come. Little by little our
lucky country has come to feel less safe and certain in this age of terror.
The first turning point came in the dreadful hours of the morning of October 13, 2002,
waking up to the reality of an awful bombing in Bali that took the lives of at least 202
people, including 88 Australians.
Twelve years on, we recoil with horror from another tragedy. This time it is of a different
nature and of a different scale but still there are too many innocent lives lost.
International terrorism reached out and touched us when we were travelling away from
home. Now homegrown lone wolf terrorism has struck us in our own streets and cafes. We
have been warned for months that this was coming. We came to understand it was a case
of “when” not “if”. But still the reality hit with a sickening thud.
This emotional response is natural, necessary and inevitable. But as we move on, what are

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we to make of the threats facing us? How has our world changed? Is it safe to go into the
streets of Sydney or Melbourne to celebrate Christmas and New Year?
A recent report on the state of terrorism in the world, published by the Institute for
Economics and Peace, points out that, globally, people are 40 more times likely be killed
by regular homicide than by terrorism — and Australia is vastly safer. And of course
cancer, car crashes and other catastrophes are much more probable causes of grief than
either homicide or terrorism. Terrorism is hardly our biggest threat by a long measure.
Domestic violence and substance abuse are far greater threats.
But terrorism is the “shark at the beach”, rare and unlikely to harm us but too horrible to
think about. And just as the unlikely shark attacks are real, so to are terror attacks.
Regrettably, we do need to invest resources, change laws and respond to this constantly
evolving threat.
But what do we make of the particular threat of lone wolf terrorism? What do we make of
what happened in Sydney this week? It is easy to dismiss Man Haron Monis as simply mad
and bad, damaged and dangerous. It is easy to explain his motivation and actions in terms
of a man coming to the end of his tether and lashing out in desperate attempt to justify a
life squandered in delusion and deception.
All of that is true but there is more that is also true.
At first, Monis looks like an outlier not fitting into the profile of a “proper terrorist”. But
when we understand that Islamic State is reaching out to damaged, troubled, vulnerable
men, the sinister efficacy of its message is seen more clearly. Monis was a loner, and a very
recent convert to the sectarian Sunnism of IS, but men like Khaled Sharrouf and Mohamed
Ali Baryalei struggled with similar issues and were drawn to the same promise of
redemption through violent action.
The seductive appeal of the Islamic State message is “if you come and join us and fight with
us or if you act alone and fight in our name, a lifetime of sin can be atoned for with one
courageous act”.
THE chief end of lone wolf attacks, in IS terms, is to achieve notoriety and capture media
attention — as long as the black banner of Islamic State appears in videos circulating the

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world, then the most pointless act of terror has meaning and the most banal terrorist finds
purpose.
If we understand the appeal of the IS message, then the threat of the lone wolf terror
attacks it seeks to unleash in streets and in cities around the world becomes more
immediate and more understandable.
Terrorists like the Norwegian lone wolf attacker Anders Behring Breivik are typically
damaged individuals driven by a mix of narcissism, self-doubt and the need for affirmation
— whatever political creed they claim or religious position they appropriate. Lone wolf
terrorism in particular is an ungodly, impure cocktail of motives and justifications. But
that does not make it any less real or any less dangerous.
In fact the low threshold of entry, and the modest demands it makes upon those embracing
it, make its allure all the more potent and seductive. And like it or not, we must
acknowledge that Man Haron Monis succeeded in holding the world hostage to his
horrible venture — news bulletins and websites around the world for 24 hours were
dominated by what he was doing.
And for too many people the demonstration effect of this act and the success achieved by
this most pathetic of actors holds strong appeal.
Others will surely copy his tactic of siege and hostage-taking. If a man as weak and
ordinary as Monis could achieve this, then so could anyone.
The question now is no longer “when” but “how many” — will we see just a few sporadic
attacks or will they come in waves of increasing frequency? This will remain a limited
threat but the signs are that it is rising one.
PROFESSOR GREG BARTON IS DIRECTOR INTERNATIONAL OF THE
GLOBAL TERRORISM RESEARCH CENTRE AT MONASH UNIVERSITY