The Changing Demographics of Texas and Their Impact on our Nonprofit Sector
1. The Changing Demographics
of Texas and Their Impact on
our Nonprofit Sector
The Texas Nonprofit
Summit
September 20, 2012
Austin, Texas
2. Growing States, 2000-2010
Numerical Percent
2000 2010 Change Change
Population* Population* 2000-2010 2000-2010
United States 281,421,906 308,745,538 27,323,632 9.7%
Texas 20,851,820 25,145,561 4,293,741 20.6%
California 33,871,648 37,253,956 3,382,308 10.0%
Florida 15,982,378 18,801,310 2,818,932 17.6%
Georgia 8,186,453 9,687,653 1,501,200 18.3%
North Carolina 8,049,313 9,535,483 1,486,170 18.5%
Arizona 5,130,632 6,392,017 1,261,385 24.6%
15.7% of numerical
change in U.S.
Population values are decennial census counts for April 1 for 2000 and 2010.
Source: U.S. Census Bureau. 2000 and 2010 Census Count. 2
3. Total Population and Components of
Population Change in Texas, 1950-2011
Percent Change
Due to
Numerical Percent Natural Net
Year* Population Change Change Increase Migration
1950 7,711,194 -- -- -- --
1960 9,579,677 1,868,483 24.2 93.91 6.09
1970 11,196,730 1,617,053 16.9 86.74 13.26
1980 14,229,191 3,032,461 27.1 41.58 58.42
1990 16,986,510 2,757,319 19.9 65.85 34.15
2000 20,851,820 3,865,310 22.8 49.65 50.35
2009 24,782,302 3,930,484 18.8 54.04 45.33
2010 25,145,561 4,293,741 20.6
2011 25,674,681 529,120 2.1 54.79 44.99
* All values for the decennial dates are for April 1st of the indicated census year. Values for 2009 and 2011 are for July 1 as
estimated by the U.S. Census Bureau.
Source: Derived from U.S. Census Bureau Estimates for dates indicated by the Texas State Data Center, University of Texas at San Antonio.
Note: Residual values are not presented in this table. 3
4. The 10 Fastest Growing Metro Areas
from April 1, 2010, to July 1, 2011
Percent
Increase
1. Kennewick-Pasco-Richland, Wash. 4.3
Austin-Round Rock-San Marcos,
2. 3.9
Texas
3. Hinesville-Fort Stewart, Ga. 3.4
4. McAllen-Edinburg-Mission, Texas 3.0
5. Raleigh-Cary, N.C. 2.9
6. Warner Robins, Ga. 2.9
7. Provo-Orem, Utah 2.7
Charleston-North Charleston-
8. 2.6
Summerville, S.C.
Myrtle Beach-North Myrtle Beach-
9. 2.6
Conway, S.C.
10. Yuma, Ariz. 2.6
4
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2012
5. The 10 Metro Areas with the Largest Numeric
Increase from April 1, 2010, to July 1, 2011
Numeric
Increase
1. Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, Texas 154,774
2. Houston-Sugar Land-Baytown, Texas 139,699
Washington-Arlington-Alexandria, D.C.-Va.-Md.-
3. 121,911
W.Va.
New York-Northern New Jersey-Long Island, N.Y.-
4. 118,791
N.J.-Pa.
5. Los Angeles-Long Beach-Santa Ana, Calif. 115,964
6. Miami-Fort Lauderdale-Pompano Beach, Fla. 105,490
7. Atlanta-Sandy Springs-Marietta, Ga. 90,345
8. Riverside-San Bernardino-Ontario, Calif. 80,146
9. Phoenix-Mesa-Glendale, Ariz. 70,349
10. Austin-Round Rock-San Marcos, Texas 67,230
5
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2012
6. The 10 Counties with the Largest Numeric
Increase from April 1, 2010, to July 1, 2011
Numeric
Increase
1. Harris, Texas 88,452
2. Los Angeles, Calif. 70,451
3. Maricopa, Ariz. 63,127
4. Miami-Dade, Fla. 58,331
5. Riverside, Calif. 49,979
6. Dallas, Texas 47,875
7. Orange, Calif. 45,513
8. San Diego, Calif. 44,756
9. Bexar, Texas 41,376
10. Tarrant, Texas 40,776
Texas contains eight of the 25 counties with the highest numerical gains
6
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2012
9. Estimated Annual Net Migration to
Texas, 2000 to 2009
250,000
International
State-to-State
200,000
150,000
100,000
50,000
Hurricane Katrina
0
2000 to 2001 to 2002 to 2003 to 2004 to 2005 to 2006 to 2007 to 2008 to
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
Source: U.S. Bureau of the Census 2009 Estimates 9
10. Percent of Migrants to Texas between
2000 and 2009 by Race and Ethnicity
52% of all migrants were
international
100% 5%
18% 12%
90%
80% 23% 15%
8%
70% 67% of all
60% migrants
28%
50% 40%
50%
40%
Other
30%
Black
20% 44%
33% Hispanic
10% 24%
White
0%
Net domestic International Total
migration migration
(848,702 migrants ) (933,083 migrants)
Sources: Percentages of domestic and international migrants by race and ethnicity derived from the 2006-2008 American Community Survey. Total numbers of domestic and international
10
migrants between 2000-2009 are from Table 4. Cumulative Estimates of the Components of Resident Population Change for the United States, Regions, States, and Puerto Rico: April 1,
2000 to July 1, 2009, U.S. Census Bureau
11. States with Largest Estimated
Unauthorized Immigrant Populations, 2010
Estimate
State Range
(thousands)
California 2,550 (2,350 - 2,750) 6.5% of
Texas’ 2010
Population
Texas 1,650 (1,450 - 1,850)
Florida 825 (725 - 950)
New York 625 (525 - 725)
New Jersey 550 (425 - 650)
Illinois 525 (425 - 625)
Georgia 425 (300 - 550)
Arizona 400 (275 - 500)
Source: Pew Hispanic Center estimates based on residual methodology applied to March Supplements to the Current Population Survey (February 1, 2011). 11
12. Estimated domestic migration (2000-2008) by
county as a percentage of 2000 population
Legend
-20 to -45%
-19 to -10%
-9 to -5%
-4 to 0%
1 to 5 %
6 to 20%
21 to 30%
31 to 65%
Source: Population Division, U.S. Census Bureau, March 19, 2009. Map produced 12
by the Texas State Data Center
13. Estimated international migration (2000-2008) by county
as a percentage of 2000 population
Legend
0-1%
1-2.5%
2.5-3.5%
3.5-5%
5-10%
Source: Population Division, U.S. Census Bureau, March 19, 2009. Map produced 13
by the Texas State Data Center
16. Texas Racial and Ethnic Composition,
2000 and 2010
2000 2010
Hispanic Hispanic
or Latino or Latino
32% 38% NH
White
NH 45%
White
NH 53%
Other
4% NH
NH Black Other NH Black
11% 6% 11%
Source: U.S. Census Bureau. 2000 and 2010 Census count
17. Population
50000
0
100000
150000
200000
250000
Under 1 year
4 years
8 years
12 years
16 years
20 years
24 years
Source: U.S. Census Bureau 2010 Decennial Census, SF1
28 years
32 years
36 years
40 years
44 years
48 years
Age
52 years
56 years
60 years
64 years
68 years
72 years
76 years
Hispanic
80 years
Texas White (non-Hispanic) and
84 years
Hispanic Populations by Age, 2010
88 years
92 years
White (non-Hispanic)
96 years
17
100 to 104…
18. Texas Population Pyramid by Race/Ethnicity, 2010
Male White, Non-Hispanic Male Hispanic Male Black, Non-Hispanic Male Asian, Non-Hispanic Male Other, Non Hispanic
Female White, Non-Hispanic Female Hispanic Female Black, Non-Hispanic Female Asian, Non-Hispanic Female Other, Non Hispanic
100 to 104 years
95 years
90 years
85 years
80 years
75 years
70 years
65 years
60 years
55 years
50 years
45 years
40 years
35 years
30 years
25 years
20 years
15 years
10 years
5 years
Under 1 year
200,000 150,000 100,000 50,000 0 50,000 100,000 150,000 200,000
18
Source: U.S. Census Bureau 2010 Decennial Census, SF1
19. Texas Population Pyramid by Race/Ethnicity, 2010
Male White, Non-Hispanic Female White, Non-Hispanic
100 to 104 years
95 years
90 years
85 years
80 years
75 years
70 years
65 years
60 years
55 years
50 years
45 years
40 years
35 years
30 years
25 years
20 years
15 years
10 years
5 years
Under 1 year
200,000 150,000 100,000 50,000 0 50,000 100,000 150,000 200,000
19
Source: U.S. Census Bureau 2010 Decennial Census, SF1
20. Texas Population Pyramid by Race/Ethnicity, 2010
Male Hispanic Male Black, Non-Hispanic Male Asian, Non-Hispanic Male Other, Non Hispanic
Female Hispanic Female Black, Non-Hispanic Female Asian, Non-Hispanic Female Other, Non Hispanic
100 to 104 years
95 years
90 years
85 years
80 years
75 years
70 years
65 years
60 years
55 years
50 years
45 years
40 years
35 years
30 years
25 years
20 years
15 years
10 years
5 years
Under 1 year
200,000 150,000 100,000 50,000 0 50,000 100,000 150,000 20
200,000
Source: U.S. Census Bureau 2010 Decennial Census, SF1
21. Total Population by County, 2010
Legend
co48_d00
'PROJECTIONS X$'.totpop10
82 - 10,000
10,001 - 50,000
50,001 - 100,001
100,001 - 500,001
500,001 - 1,000,000
1,000,001 - 4,100,000
Source: U.S. Census Bureau 2010 Census Counts
21
22. Change of the Total Population by County, 2000 to
2010
Legend
co48_d00
79 counties lost
'PROJECTIONS X$'.totpopch0010
population over the
-3,200 - 0
decade
1 - 10,000
10,001 - 50,000
50,001 - 100,000
100,001 - 700,000
Source: U.S. Census Bureau 2000 and 2010 Census Counts
22
23. Percent of the Population Less than 18 Years of Age, Living
Under Poverty for During Past 12 Months, 2005-2009
5-20%
20-30%
30-40%
40-55%
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey, 5-Year Sample 2005-2009
24. Median Household Income by County, 2005-2009
$18,000-30,000
$ 30,000-35,000
$ 35,000-40,000
$40,000-50,000
$ 50,000-76,000
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey, 5-Year Sample 2005-2009
25. Educational Attainment in Texas, 2009
Level of Educational Percent of State
Attainment persons aged Ranking
25 years and
older
High school diploma 79.9% 50
or equivalency
Bachelors 25.5% 31
Graduate 8.5% 33
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey, 2009.
25
26. Race/Ethnic Composition by Education Level
aged 25 years and more, Texas, 2009
3%
9%
19%
15%
6%
8%
67%
71%
College and Greater
Less Than High School
Source: Derived from 2009 American Community Survey 1-Year Estimates by the Office of the State Demographer. 26
27. Projected Percent of Labor Force by Education
Attainment in Texas, 2000 and 2040
35.0
30.1
30.0 29.0 28.7 28.7
25.0 23.9
20.0
Percent
18.8 18.2
15.0 12.9
10.0
5.3
4.4
5.0
0.0
No High School Diploma High School Graduate Some College Bachelor's Degree Graduate/Professional
Degree
2000 2040
Source: Texas State Data Center. 2008 Population Projections, 1.0 Migration Scenario.
28. Physicians per 1,000 Population, 2010
Physician Rate Physician Rate Change,
2000-2010
Physicians per 1,000 Population 2000Physicians per 1,000 Population 2010
'PROJECTIONS X$'.phys001 'PROJECTIONS X$'.difphys
0 -3 to -0.5
.01-.5 -0.49 to -.001
.51-1 0
1.1-1.5 .001 to .5
1.51-4 .51-2.1
Source: U.S. Census Bureau. 2000 and 2010 Census Counts. Texas Medical Board.
Maps produced by the Texas State Data Center. 28
29. Physicians per 1,000 Population Aged 65 Years
and Older by County, 2008
Physcians per 1,000 persons aged 65+
'Age 65p County$'.Physper1k65p
0
GT 0 - LE 5
GT 5 - LE 10
GT 10 - LE 20
GT 20
Source: U.S. Census Bureau. 2009 Population Estimates.
Texas Medical Board.
Map produced by the Texas State Data Center. 29
30. Physicians per 100,000 by
Metro & Border Status of Counties, 2009
200
180 175
159
160
140
120 110
100 95
80
60 53
40
20
0
Not Border Border Not Border Border
Non-Metro Non-Metro Metropolitan Metropolitan Total
2009
Sources: U.S. Census Bureau. 2009 Estimates.
Department of State Health Services. Health Professions Resource Center Database. 30
31. Percent of People Lacking Health Insurance
Coverage by Metro and Non-Metro Area, 2009
The Census Bureau
estimates that in 2009
Texas had the highest
uninsured rate in the
country, at 26.1%, or
6.4 million people.
Texas also had the
Metropolitan Areas highest uninsured
less than 20%
Metropolitan Areas
20.0% to 22.9% rate of children, with
less than 20%
23.0% to 25.9%
20.0% to 22.9%
over 26%
17.4%, or 1.28 million
23.0% to 25.9%
PUMAs
over 26%
children lacking
Non-Metropolitan Areas
PUMAs
less than 20%
insurance.
Non-Metropolitan Areas
20.0% to 22.9%
less than 20%
23.0% to 25.9%
20.0% to 22.9%
over 26%
23.0% to 25.9%
over 26% Source: U.S. Census Bureau. 2009 American Community Survey .
Map produced by the Texas State Data Center. 31
32. Percent Health Insurance Coverage by Race/Ethnicity
and Type of Insurance, 2010
70 66
61
60
52
50 45
40 37
32 34
29
30 25 26
23 22
20
20 14 15
10
0
White Black Hispanic Asian Other
None Public Private
Note: Public includes individuals with public only and those with public plus private insurance. Private includes individuals who only have
private insurance.
Source: American Community Survey, 2010 PUMS data 32
33. Projected Population Growth in Texas, 2000-2040
Year
Source: Texas State Data Center 2008 Population Projections 33
34. Projected Racial and Ethnic Percent, Texas, 2000-2040
70%
60%
50%
40% Anglo
30% Black
Hispanic
20% Other
10%
0%
2000
2002
2004
2008
2010
2012
2014
2018
2020
2022
2024
2030
2032
2034
2040
2006
2016
2026
2028
2036
2038
Source: Texas State Data Center 2008 Population Projections , 2000-2007 Migration Scenario 34
35. Population Aged 65 Years and Older by
County, 2009 Estimated
Percent 65 Years and Older Population 65 Years and Older
Percent of the Total Population aged 65 Pct 2009
Total Population aged 65 plus 2009
TOT_POPP9
TOT_POP9
LE 10%
LE 5,000
GT 10% - LE 15%
GT 5,000 - LE 15,000
GT 15% - LE 20%
GT 15,000 - LE 25,000
GT 20% - LE 25%
GT 25,000 - LE 100,000
GT 25%
GT 100,000
Source: Texas State Data Center. 2009 Population Estimates.
35
Maps produced by the Texas State Data Center.
36. Projected Population Among Older Texans
3,500,000
3,000,000
2,500,000
2,000,000
Age 65-74
1,500,000 Age 75-85
1,000,000 Age 85+
500,000
0
2000
2003
2006
2009
2012
2015
2018
2021
2024
2027
2030
2033
2036
2039
Source: Texas State Data Center. 2008 Population Projections, 2000-2004 Migration Scenario. 36
37. Percent of Persons Aged 65 Years and Older
by County, 2000 Census and 2040 Projected
2000 Count 2040 Projection
Percent 65 Years Old and Older
< 11.9 (n=66)
<11.9
Percent 65 Years Old and Older
12.0 – 14.9
Source: Institute for Demographic and Socioeconomic Research,
< 11.9 (n=2)
The University of Texas at San Antonio. Census 2000 Summary File 1.
12.0 - 14.9 (n=70) Source: Institute for Demographic and Socioeconomic Re
12.0 - 14.9 (n=19) The University of Texas at San Antonio. Texas Population
15.0 - 19.9 (n=80)
15.0 – 19.9
15.0 - 19.9 (n=79)
and Projections Program, 2006 Projections.
20.0 or more (n=38)
20.0 or more (n=154)more
20.0 or
Source: U.S. Census Bureau. 2000 Census Count. Texas State Data Center. 2009 Population Projections.
Maps produced by the Texas State Data Center. 37
38. Teen Birth Rate by State, 2006
Birth rate per 1,000
Rank State
women ages 15-19
1 Mississippi 68.4
2 New Mexico 64.1
3 Texas 63.1
4 Arkansas 62.3
5 Arizona 62
6 Oklahoma 59.6
7 Nevada 55.8
8 Tennessee 54.7
9 Kentucky 54.6
10 Georgia 54.2
11 Louisiana 53.9
12 Alabama 53.5
Source: National Center for Health Statistics at the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention 38
39. Projected Increase in Obesity in Texas by
Ethnicity, 2006 to 2040
Source: Office of the State Demographer projections, using 2000-2004 migration scenario population projections
39
40. Estimated Number of Adults with Obesity
Legend
by County, 2008
co48_d00
Sheet1$.Nadultobes
0-10,000
10,001-25,000
25,001-75,000
75,001-250,000
250,001-73,000
Source: Centers for Disease Control and Prevention: National Diabetes
Surveillance System. Available online at: http://apps.nccd.cdc.gov/DDTSTRS/default.aspx. 40
41. Projected Number of Adults with Diabetes by Race
and Ethnicity, Texas, 2010-2040
8,000,000
6,000,000
Total
Latino
4,000,000
Anglo
African American
Other
2,000,000
0
Source: Office of the State Demographer, 2010 41
42. Projected Percent of the Adult Population with
Diabetes by County, 2010 and 2040
LE 15%
15-20%
20-25%
25-30%
30-37.5%
2010 2040 42
Texas is the second largest state in terms of population (2nd to CA) and area (2nd to AK). In terms of number of people, Texas’ growth exceeds that of all other states between 2000 and 2010.
The components of change include natural increase (births-deaths) and net migration (in-out migration). In recent years, natural increase and net migration have contributed almost equally to Texas’ growth. Natural increase is much more predictable and stable than net migration. Net migration tends to fluctuate with economic factors.
Texas has experienced several recessions in the past, the most recent was the most significant.
Migration into Texas has made very significant contributions to our population growth for the past few decades. International migration is estimated to have made significant contributions this decade. Generally, international migration is regulated and tends not to vary substantially from year to year. Internal (state-to-state) migration is estimated to have increased significantly in the middle of this decade and has remained relatively high. This peak in 2005-2006 was also fueled by significant migration from Louisiana post hurricane Katrina. However, with the economic downturn, internal migration into Texas is likely slowed. Internal migration is not regulated by the government and is largely driven by the presence or absence of jobs and economic opportunity. Therefore, internal migration tends to be variable and dependent upon economic fluctuations.
More than half of migrants to Texas over much of the past decade were international migrants. About two-thirds of Texas migrants were members of racial and ethnic minority groups over much of the decade.
Texas has an estimated 1.65 million unauthorized immigrants. Assuming most unauthorized migrants were counted in the Census, this represents about 6.5% of the total population.
This map demonstrates DOMESTIC, or internal, migration made up largely of persons who are citizens or legal residents of the United States. International migrants are not included on this map. Generally, western counties had U.S. residents and citizens moving out and the areas around urban cores had U.S. residents and citizens moving in. Note that Dallas and Harris county have net out domestic migration indicating that persons from these counties may be moving to more suburban adjacent counties.
This map demonstrates in migration of international migrants. Domestic migrants are not included on this map. It is estimated that international migrants made significant contributions to population growth in large urban counties and along the border. Note that Dallas and Harris counties experienced substantial international migration resulting in a positive net in-migration to those counties.
This map from Forbes.com (www.forbes.com/special-report/2011/migration.html) illustrates migration flows for the selected county.
This map from Forbes.com (www.forbes.com/special-report/2011/migration.html) illustrates migration flows for the selected county.
As of the 2000 Census, about 53% of Texas’ population was non-Hispanic Anglo, about 32% where of Hispanic descent, about 11% where non-Hispanic African American, and about 4% were non-Hispanic Other. In 2010, it is estimated that about 45% of the Texas population was non-Hispanic Anglo, 38% of Hispanic descent, 11% were non-Hispanic African American, and about 6% were non-Hispanic Other (largely of Asian descent).
The age distribution of the non-Hispanic white population in Texas is weighted heavily with the “baby boom” generation. Largely the result of lower fertility and less netin-migration, the non-Hispanic white population has relatively fewer young persons relative to those in the middle-age years. In 2010, at ages 37 and younger, the Hispanic population exceeds the non-Hispanic white population.
This population pyramid represents the age, sex, race and ethnic composition of the Texas population. Blue represents males, red females, rows are single years of age, and shades represent specified race/ethnic groups as indicated in the legend.
This population pyramid represents the age and sex composition of the Texas non-Hispanic white population. Blue represents males, red females, rows are single years of age.
This population pyramid represents the age, and sex composition of the minority population in Texas. Blue represents males, red females, rows are single years of age, and shades represent specified race/ethnic groups as indicated in the legend.
The counties of Harris, Bexar, Dallas, Tarrant, and Travis are the most populated in the State. Collin, Denton, Fort Bend, Hidalgo, and El Paso counties also have significant population concentrations. Many counties west of Interstate 35 are more sparsely populated.
175 counties gained population while 79 lost population over the decade.
The map on the right demonstrates changes in the number of physicians per 1,000 population over the decade. Green counties experienced fewer physicians per population over the decade (about 90 counties). Blue counties are those that experienced an increase in the number of physicians per 1,000 population over the decade (144). There were 20 counties that did not change in the number of physicians per population over the decade. These were counties that did not have any physicians.
Data on this map about physicians licensed to practice in Texas are from the Texas Medical Board. Some rural counties do not have any practicing physicians. The more urban counties appear to have relatively high ratios of physicians to population aged 65+.
Estimates of physicians per 100,000 by metropolitan and border status indicate the availability of physicians is greatest in non-border metropolitan areas and least in non-metropolitan border counties.
Data on health insurance coverage was only available using the public use micro sample of the American Community Survey. Therefore, counties with small populations are lumped together in Public Use Microdata Area (PUMA) boundaries with populations of at least 100,000. For these counties, we assume each county has the same characteristics of the PUMA. Counties with larger populations are shown individually. With these assumptions, about 19% (34 counties) of the 177 non-metropolitan counties had 26% or more of their population lacking health insurance. Of the metropolitan counties 12% (9 counties) had 26% or more of their population lacking health insurance. Generally, populations in non-metropolitan counties tend to lack health insurance more than the populations in metropolitan counties.
Non-Hispanic Asians and non-Hispanic Whites in Texas were most likely to have private health insurance in 2010. Latinos were least likely to have health insurance.
This graph represents variable population projections for the State under different migration scenarios. The base (brown dashed line) is the assumption of no migration. Under this scenario, the State will grow as a function of natural increase (births-deaths). The ½ 1990-2000 scenario (the red split line) is the most conservative. The 2000-2004 and 2000-2007 scenarios reflect estimates of migration for those two periods and suggest more rapid population growth.Under any scenario, even no migration, Texas will continue to grow.
The 2000-2007 migration scenario is likely the most realistic to consider in short term projections. Using this scenario, the number of Hispanics will likely exceed the number of non-Hispanic Anglos in the State around 2015.
Texas is also aging. The age structure of many of the more rural counties are becoming older compared to more urban counties. While many of the urban counties have smaller percentages of their population in the older ages, the actual numbers of people aged 65+ are increasingly concentrated in urban counties and the south border.
The Texas State Data Center population projections indicate significant growth in the number of persons aged 65-74, with slightly less growth for the population aged 75-84 and relevant, but less growth for the 85 plus population.
Texas had the 3rd highest teen birth rate in 2006.
Texas is growing – with more people being added than in any other state.Texas is becoming more urban. Many rural counties are losing population. Urbanized metropolitan areas have been growing dramatically over the decade.Texas is becoming more diverse – much of our growth is attributable to growth of the Hispanic population.
The Office of the State Demographer and the Texas State Data Center are committed to supporting your work through providing you with the best, most accurate, and objective information we can identify about our greatest asset, the people of Texas.