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The Changing Demographics
of Texas and Their Impact on
     our Nonprofit Sector


                               The Texas Nonprofit
                                     Summit
                               September 20, 2012
                                  Austin, Texas
Growing States, 2000-2010

                                                                                 Numerical       Percent
                                        2000                     2010             Change         Change
                                     Population*              Population*        2000-2010      2000-2010
United States                            281,421,906              308,745,538      27,323,632     9.7%
Texas                                     20,851,820               25,145,561       4,293,741    20.6%
California                                33,871,648               37,253,956       3,382,308    10.0%
Florida                                   15,982,378               18,801,310       2,818,932    17.6%
Georgia                                     8,186,453                9,687,653      1,501,200    18.3%
North Carolina                              8,049,313               9,535,483       1,486,170    18.5%
Arizona                                     5,130,632               6,392,017       1,261,385    24.6%


                                                                                    15.7% of numerical
                                                                                    change in U.S.
  Population values are decennial census counts for April 1 for 2000 and 2010.




Source: U.S. Census Bureau. 2000 and 2010 Census Count.                                                  2
Total Population and Components of
                               Population Change in Texas, 1950-2011
                                                                                                     Percent Change
                                                                                                         Due to
                                                  Numerical                 Percent                 Natural                    Net
Year*                 Population                   Change                   Change                 Increase                 Migration
1950                     7,711,194                     --                        --           --                       --
1960                     9,579,677                   1,868,483                24.2                  93.91                       6.09
1970                   11,196,730                    1,617,053                16.9                  86.74                      13.26
1980                   14,229,191                    3,032,461                27.1                  41.58                      58.42
1990                   16,986,510                    2,757,319                19.9                  65.85                      34.15
2000                   20,851,820                    3,865,310                22.8                  49.65                      50.35
2009                   24,782,302                    3,930,484                18.8                  54.04                      45.33
2010                   25,145,561                    4,293,741                20.6
2011                   25,674,681                       529,120                2.1                  54.79                      44.99
* All values for the decennial dates are for April 1st of the indicated census year. Values for 2009 and 2011 are for July 1 as
estimated by the U.S. Census Bureau.

Source: Derived from U.S. Census Bureau Estimates for dates indicated by the Texas State Data Center, University of Texas at San Antonio.
Note: Residual values are not presented in this table.                                                                                      3
The 10 Fastest Growing Metro Areas
                          from April 1, 2010, to July 1, 2011
                                                             Percent
                                                            Increase
                   1.    Kennewick-Pasco-Richland, Wash.      4.3
                         Austin-Round Rock-San Marcos,
                   2.                                         3.9
                         Texas
                   3.    Hinesville-Fort Stewart, Ga.         3.4
                   4.    McAllen-Edinburg-Mission, Texas      3.0
                   5.    Raleigh-Cary, N.C.                   2.9
                   6.    Warner Robins, Ga.                   2.9
                   7.    Provo-Orem, Utah                     2.7
                         Charleston-North Charleston-
                   8.                                         2.6
                         Summerville, S.C.
                         Myrtle Beach-North Myrtle Beach-
                   9.                                         2.6
                         Conway, S.C.
                   10. Yuma, Ariz.                            2.6
                                                                       4
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2012
The 10 Metro Areas with the Largest Numeric
                            Increase from April 1, 2010, to July 1, 2011
                                                                      Numeric
                                                                      Increase
           1.       Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, Texas                154,774
           2.       Houston-Sugar Land-Baytown, Texas                 139,699
                    Washington-Arlington-Alexandria, D.C.-Va.-Md.-
           3.                                                         121,911
                    W.Va.
                    New York-Northern New Jersey-Long Island, N.Y.-
           4.                                                         118,791
                    N.J.-Pa.
           5.       Los Angeles-Long Beach-Santa Ana, Calif.          115,964

           6.       Miami-Fort Lauderdale-Pompano Beach, Fla.         105,490

           7.       Atlanta-Sandy Springs-Marietta, Ga.               90,345

           8.       Riverside-San Bernardino-Ontario, Calif.          80,146
           9.       Phoenix-Mesa-Glendale, Ariz.                      70,349
           10.      Austin-Round Rock-San Marcos, Texas               67,230


                                                                                 5
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2012
The 10 Counties with the Largest Numeric
                          Increase from April 1, 2010, to July 1, 2011
                                                           Numeric
                                                           Increase
                     1.      Harris, Texas                  88,452
                     2.      Los Angeles, Calif.            70,451
                     3.      Maricopa, Ariz.                63,127
                     4.      Miami-Dade, Fla.               58,331
                     5.      Riverside, Calif.              49,979
                     6.      Dallas, Texas                  47,875
                     7.      Orange, Calif.                 45,513
                     8.      San Diego, Calif.              44,756
                     9.      Bexar, Texas                   41,376
                     10.     Tarrant, Texas                 40,776
    Texas contains eight of the 25 counties with the highest numerical gains
                                                                               6
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2012
Texas Business-Cycle Index




                             7
Texas Jobs Growing Faster Than
            Nation’s




                                 8
Estimated Annual Net Migration to
                                             Texas, 2000 to 2009

250,000
                          International
                          State-to-State
200,000


150,000


100,000


 50,000
                                                                Hurricane Katrina


           0
                  2000 to 2001 to 2002 to 2003 to 2004 to 2005 to 2006 to 2007 to 2008 to
                   2001    2002    2003    2004    2005    2006    2007    2008    2009




Source: U.S. Bureau of the Census 2009 Estimates                                        9
Percent of Migrants to Texas between
                                      2000 and 2009 by Race and Ethnicity
                                                                                                52% of all migrants were
                                                                                                international
          100%                              5%
                                                                                     18%                                        12%
           90%
           80%                             23%                                                                                  15%
                                                                                      8%
           70%                                                                                                                                               67% of all
           60%                                                                                                                                               migrants
                                           28%
           50%                                                                                                                  40%
                                                                                     50%
           40%
                                                                                                                                                                   Other
           30%
                                                                                                                                                                   Black
           20%                             44%
                                                                                                                                33%                                Hispanic
           10%                                                                       24%
                                                                                                                                                                   White
            0%
                                  Net domestic                               International                                     Total
                                   migration                                   migration
                         (848,702 migrants ) (933,083 migrants)
Sources: Percentages of domestic and international migrants by race and ethnicity derived from the 2006-2008 American Community Survey. Total numbers of domestic and international
                                                                                                                                                                                  10
migrants between 2000-2009 are from Table 4. Cumulative Estimates of the Components of Resident Population Change for the United States, Regions, States, and Puerto Rico: April 1,
2000 to July 1, 2009, U.S. Census Bureau
States with Largest Estimated
                         Unauthorized Immigrant Populations, 2010

                                                                      Estimate
                                  State                                                                             Range
                                                                    (thousands)
                               California                                               2,550               (2,350 - 2,750)                             6.5% of
                                                                                                                                                        Texas’ 2010
                                                                                                                                                        Population
                                   Texas                                                1,650               (1,450 - 1,850)
                                  Florida                                                    825                (725 - 950)
                               New York                                                      625                (525 - 725)
                            New Jersey                                                       550                (425 - 650)
                                  Illinois                                                   525                (425 - 625)
                                Georgia                                                      425                (300 - 550)
                                 Arizona                                                     400                (275 - 500)



Source: Pew Hispanic Center estimates based on residual methodology applied to March Supplements to the Current Population Survey (February 1, 2011).      11
Estimated domestic migration (2000-2008) by
                                county as a percentage of 2000 population
                                  Legend
                                            -20 to -45%
                                            -19 to -10%
                                            -9 to -5%
                                            -4 to 0%
                                            1 to 5 %
                                            6 to 20%
                                            21 to 30%
                                            31 to 65%




Source: Population Division, U.S. Census Bureau, March 19, 2009. Map produced   12
by the Texas State Data Center
Estimated international migration (2000-2008) by county
                                                     as a percentage of 2000 population

                     Legend
                                 0-1%
                                 1-2.5%
                                 2.5-3.5%
                                 3.5-5%
                                 5-10%




Source: Population Division, U.S. Census Bureau, March 19, 2009. Map produced                13
by the Texas State Data Center
http://www.forbes.com/special-report/2011/migration.html   14
http://www.forbes.com/special-report/2011/migration.html   15
Texas Racial and Ethnic Composition,
                                                  2000 and 2010

                                2000                                    2010
       Hispanic                                          Hispanic
       or Latino                                         or Latino
         32%                                               38%                  NH
                                                                               White
                                                  NH                           45%
                                                 White
        NH                                       53%
       Other
        4%                                                       NH
             NH Black                                           Other     NH Black
              11%                                                6%        11%




Source: U.S. Census Bureau. 2000 and 2010 Census count
Population




                                                                         50000


                                                                     0
                                                                                 100000
                                                                                          150000
                                                                                                                         200000
                                                                                                                                  250000
                                                         Under 1 year
                                                              4 years
                                                              8 years
                                                             12 years
                                                             16 years
                                                             20 years
                                                             24 years




Source: U.S. Census Bureau 2010 Decennial Census, SF1
                                                             28 years
                                                             32 years
                                                             36 years
                                                             40 years
                                                             44 years
                                                             48 years




                                                        Age
                                                             52 years
                                                             56 years
                                                             60 years
                                                             64 years
                                                             68 years
                                                             72 years
                                                             76 years
                                                                                             Hispanic




                                                             80 years
                                                                                                                                            Texas White (non-Hispanic) and




                                                             84 years
                                                                                                                                           Hispanic Populations by Age, 2010




                                                             88 years
                                                             92 years
                                                                                                        White (non-Hispanic)




                                                             96 years
                                                    17




                                                           100 to 104…
Texas Population Pyramid by Race/Ethnicity, 2010
                         Male White, Non-Hispanic       Male Hispanic      Male Black, Non-Hispanic     Male Asian, Non-Hispanic     Male Other, Non Hispanic
                         Female White, Non-Hispanic     Female Hispanic    Female Black, Non-Hispanic   Female Asian, Non-Hispanic   Female Other, Non Hispanic

             100 to 104 years
                     95 years
                     90 years
                     85 years
                     80 years
                     75 years
                     70 years
                     65 years
                     60 years
                     55 years
                     50 years
                     45 years
                     40 years
                     35 years
                     30 years
                     25 years
                     20 years
                     15 years
                     10 years
                       5 years
                Under 1 year

                           200,000          150,000            100,000    50,000             0            50,000           100,000          150,000             200,000
                                                                                                                                                                18
Source: U.S. Census Bureau 2010 Decennial Census, SF1
Texas Population Pyramid by Race/Ethnicity, 2010
                                                           Male White, Non-Hispanic   Female White, Non-Hispanic


             100 to 104 years
                     95 years
                     90 years
                     85 years
                     80 years
                     75 years
                     70 years
                     65 years
                     60 years
                     55 years
                     50 years
                     45 years
                     40 years
                     35 years
                     30 years
                     25 years
                     20 years
                     15 years
                     10 years
                       5 years
                Under 1 year

                           200,000          150,000     100,000        50,000           0             50,000       100,000   150,000   200,000
                                                                                                                                       19
Source: U.S. Census Bureau 2010 Decennial Census, SF1
Texas Population Pyramid by Race/Ethnicity, 2010
                                        Male Hispanic         Male Black, Non-Hispanic     Male Asian, Non-Hispanic     Male Other, Non Hispanic
                                        Female Hispanic       Female Black, Non-Hispanic   Female Asian, Non-Hispanic   Female Other, Non Hispanic

           100 to 104 years
                    95 years
                    90 years
                    85 years
                    80 years
                    75 years
                    70 years
                    65 years
                    60 years
                    55 years
                    50 years
                    45 years
                    40 years
                    35 years
                    30 years
                    25 years
                    20 years
                    15 years
                    10 years
                     5 years
               Under 1 year

                          200,000          150,000        100,000       50,000                0            50,000           100,000           150,000   20
                                                                                                                                                        200,000
Source: U.S. Census Bureau 2010 Decennial Census, SF1
Total Population by County, 2010
                      Legend
                      co48_d00
                      'PROJECTIONS X$'.totpop10
                              82 - 10,000
                              10,001 - 50,000
                              50,001 - 100,001
                              100,001 - 500,001
                              500,001 - 1,000,000
                              1,000,001 - 4,100,000




Source: U.S. Census Bureau 2010 Census Counts
                                                                                       21
Change of the Total Population by County, 2000 to
                                                     2010
                        Legend
                        co48_d00
                                                              79 counties lost
                        'PROJECTIONS X$'.totpopch0010
                                                              population over the
                                -3,200 - 0
                                                              decade
                                1 - 10,000
                                10,001 - 50,000
                                50,001 - 100,000
                                100,001 - 700,000




Source: U.S. Census Bureau 2000 and 2010 Census Counts
                                                                                    22
Percent of the Population Less than 18 Years of Age, Living
                         Under Poverty for During Past 12 Months, 2005-2009


                5-20%

                20-30%

                30-40%

                40-55%




Source: U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey, 5-Year Sample 2005-2009
Median Household Income by County, 2005-2009


                 $18,000-30,000

                 $ 30,000-35,000

                 $ 35,000-40,000

                 $40,000-50,000

                 $ 50,000-76,000




Source: U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey, 5-Year Sample 2005-2009
Educational Attainment in Texas, 2009


                         Level of Educational                  Percent of     State
                         Attainment                            persons aged   Ranking
                                                               25 years and
                                                               older
                         High school diploma                   79.9%          50
                         or equivalency
                         Bachelors                             25.5%          31
                         Graduate                              8.5%           33




Source: U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey, 2009.
                                                                                        25
Race/Ethnic Composition by Education Level
                             aged 25 years and more, Texas, 2009


                        3%
                                                                                                                    9%
                                              19%
                                                                                                           15%

                                                               6%
                                                                                                        8%
                                                                                                                               67%
    71%


                                                                                                                College and Greater
Less Than High School
 Source: Derived from 2009 American Community Survey 1-Year Estimates by the Office of the State Demographer.                         26
Projected Percent of Labor Force by Education
                               Attainment in Texas, 2000 and 2040

           35.0

                                         30.1
           30.0                                               29.0         28.7                   28.7



           25.0                                                                                           23.9



           20.0
Percent




                             18.8                                                                                  18.2


           15.0                                                                                                            12.9


           10.0

                                                                                                                                          5.3
                                                                                                                                                  4.4
            5.0


            0.0
                     No High School Diploma High School Graduate                                  Some College   Bachelor's Degree   Graduate/Professional
                                                                                                                                           Degree
                                                                                             2000        2040



          Source: Texas State Data Center. 2008 Population Projections, 1.0 Migration Scenario.
Physicians per 1,000 Population, 2010
              Physician Rate                                                    Physician Rate Change,
                                                                                      2000-2010




  Physicians per 1,000 Population 2000Physicians per 1,000 Population 2010
  'PROJECTIONS X$'.phys001                               'PROJECTIONS X$'.difphys
      0                                                     -3 to -0.5

      .01-.5                                                -0.49 to -.001

      .51-1                                                 0

      1.1-1.5                                               .001 to .5

      1.51-4                                                .51-2.1


Source: U.S. Census Bureau. 2000 and 2010 Census Counts. Texas Medical Board.
Maps produced by the Texas State Data Center.                                                    28
Physicians per 1,000 Population Aged 65 Years
                                       and Older by County, 2008
                 Physcians per 1,000 persons aged 65+
                 'Age 65p County$'.Physper1k65p
                     0

                     GT 0 - LE 5

                     GT 5 - LE 10

                     GT 10 - LE 20

                     GT 20




Source: U.S. Census Bureau. 2009 Population Estimates.
        Texas Medical Board.
Map produced by the Texas State Data Center.                           29
Physicians per 100,000 by
                     Metro & Border Status of Counties, 2009

   200
   180                                                    175
                                                                                       159
   160
   140
   120                                                                        110
   100             95
    80
    60                                 53
    40
    20
     0
              Not Border            Border           Not Border             Border

              Non-Metro          Non-Metro          Metropolitan        Metropolitan   Total
                                                       2009
Sources: U.S. Census Bureau. 2009 Estimates.
Department of State Health Services. Health Professions Resource Center Database.              30
Percent of People Lacking Health Insurance
                         Coverage by Metro and Non-Metro Area, 2009

                                                                   The Census Bureau
                                                                   estimates that in 2009
                                                                   Texas had the highest
                                                                   uninsured rate in the
                                                                   country, at 26.1%, or
                                                                   6.4 million people.

                                                                   Texas also had the
Metropolitan Areas                                                 highest uninsured
      less than 20%
Metropolitan Areas
      20.0% to 22.9%                                               rate of children, with
     less than 20%
      23.0% to 25.9%
     20.0% to 22.9%
      over 26%
                                                                   17.4%, or 1.28 million
     23.0% to 25.9%
      PUMAs
     over 26%
                                                                   children lacking
Non-Metropolitan Areas
     PUMAs
      less than 20%
                                                                   insurance.
Non-Metropolitan Areas
      20.0% to 22.9%
     less than 20%
      23.0% to 25.9%
     20.0% to 22.9%
      over 26%
     23.0% to 25.9%
     over 26%                          Source: U.S. Census Bureau. 2009 American Community Survey .
                                       Map produced by the Texas State Data Center.        31
Percent Health Insurance Coverage by Race/Ethnicity
                                             and Type of Insurance, 2010


        70                                                                                               66
                               61
        60
                                                                                                                                  52
        50                                              45
        40                                                           37
                                                  32                            34
                                                                           29
        30               25                                                                                            26
                                             23                                                                             22
                                                                                              20
        20          14                                                                              15
        10

          0
                       White                    Black                 Hispanic                   Asian                    Other
                                                       None           Public         Private
Note: Public includes individuals with public only and those with public plus private insurance. Private includes individuals who only have
private insurance.
Source: American Community Survey, 2010 PUMS data                                                                                         32
Projected Population Growth in Texas, 2000-2040




                                                              Year
Source: Texas State Data Center 2008 Population Projections           33
Projected Racial and Ethnic Percent, Texas, 2000-2040



70%
60%
50%
40%                                                                                            Anglo
30%                                                                                            Black
                                                                                               Hispanic
20%                                                                                            Other
10%
0%
      2000
      2002
      2004

      2008
      2010
      2012
      2014

      2018
      2020
      2022
      2024


      2030
      2032
      2034


      2040
      2006




      2016




      2026
      2028




      2036
      2038
  Source: Texas State Data Center 2008 Population Projections , 2000-2007 Migration Scenario           34
Population Aged 65 Years and Older by
                                    County, 2009 Estimated
          Percent 65 Years and Older                             Population 65 Years and Older




 Percent of the Total Population aged 65 Pct 2009
                                               Total Population aged 65 plus 2009
 TOT_POPP9
                                                              TOT_POP9
    LE 10%
                                                                LE 5,000
    GT 10% - LE 15%
                                                                GT 5,000 - LE 15,000
    GT 15% - LE 20%
                                                                GT 15,000 - LE 25,000
    GT 20% - LE 25%
                                                                GT 25,000 - LE 100,000
    GT 25%
                                                                GT 100,000

Source: Texas State Data Center. 2009 Population Estimates.
                                                                                                 35
Maps produced by the Texas State Data Center.
Projected Population Among Older Texans

      3,500,000

      3,000,000

      2,500,000

      2,000,000
                                                                                                                       Age 65-74
      1,500,000                                                                                                        Age 75-85
      1,000,000                                                                                                        Age 85+

         500,000

                 0
                     2000
                            2003
                                   2006
                                          2009
                                                 2012
                                                        2015
                                                               2018
                                                                      2021
                                                                             2024
                                                                                    2027
                                                                                           2030
                                                                                                  2033
                                                                                                         2036
                                                                                                                2039
Source: Texas State Data Center. 2008 Population Projections, 2000-2004 Migration Scenario.                                      36
Percent of Persons Aged 65 Years and Older
                                 by County, 2000 Census and 2040 Projected

                           2000 Count                                                                            2040 Projection




Percent 65 Years Old and Older
     < 11.9 (n=66)
                                                                                       <11.9
                                                                        Percent 65 Years Old and Older
                                                                                       12.0 – 14.9
                                           Source: Institute for Demographic and Socioeconomic Research,
                                                                                    < 11.9 (n=2)
                                           The University of Texas at San Antonio. Census 2000 Summary File 1.
     12.0 - 14.9 (n=70)                                                                                                            Source: Institute for Demographic and Socioeconomic Re
                                                                                  12.0 - 14.9 (n=19)                               The University of Texas at San Antonio. Texas Population
     15.0 - 19.9 (n=80)
                                                                                       15.0 – 19.9
                                                                                  15.0 - 19.9 (n=79)
                                                                                                                                   and Projections Program, 2006 Projections.

     20.0 or more (n=38)
                                                                                  20.0 or more (n=154)more
                                                                                       20.0 or


Source: U.S. Census Bureau. 2000 Census Count. Texas State Data Center. 2009 Population Projections.
Maps produced by the Texas State Data Center.                                                                                                                   37
Teen Birth Rate by State, 2006
                                                                               Birth rate per 1,000
                             Rank                     State
                                                                               women ages 15-19
                                1       Mississippi                                    68.4
                                2       New Mexico                                     64.1
                                3       Texas                                          63.1
                                4       Arkansas                                       62.3
                                5       Arizona                                         62
                                6       Oklahoma                                       59.6
                                7       Nevada                                         55.8
                                8       Tennessee                                      54.7
                                9       Kentucky                                       54.6
                                10      Georgia                                        54.2
                                11      Louisiana                                      53.9
                                12      Alabama                                        53.5

Source: National Center for Health Statistics at the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention       38
Projected Increase in Obesity in Texas by
                                                                            Ethnicity, 2006 to 2040




Source: Office of the State Demographer projections, using 2000-2004 migration scenario population projections
                                                                                                                 39
Estimated Number of Adults with Obesity
                   Legend
                                 by County, 2008
                   co48_d00
                   Sheet1$.Nadultobes
                          0-10,000
                          10,001-25,000
                          25,001-75,000
                          75,001-250,000
                          250,001-73,000




Source: Centers for Disease Control and Prevention: National Diabetes
Surveillance System. Available online at: http://apps.nccd.cdc.gov/DDTSTRS/default.aspx.   40
Projected Number of Adults with Diabetes by Race
                                       and Ethnicity, Texas, 2010-2040


     8,000,000



     6,000,000

                                                                         Total
                                                                         Latino
     4,000,000
                                                                         Anglo
                                                                         African American
                                                                         Other
     2,000,000



                 0




Source: Office of the State Demographer, 2010                                      41
Projected Percent of the Adult Population with
      Diabetes by County, 2010 and 2040
                 LE 15%
                 15-20%
                 20-25%
                 25-30%
                 30-37.5%




2010                             2040             42
Demographics and Destiny




                           43
Contact

Lloyd Potter, Ph.D., M.P.H.
 Office: (512) 463-8390 or (210) 458-6530
 Email: Lloyd.Potter@osd.state.tx.us
 Internet: http://osd.state.tx.us




                                            44

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The Changing Demographics of Texas and Their Impact on our Nonprofit Sector

  • 1. The Changing Demographics of Texas and Their Impact on our Nonprofit Sector The Texas Nonprofit Summit September 20, 2012 Austin, Texas
  • 2. Growing States, 2000-2010 Numerical Percent 2000 2010 Change Change Population* Population* 2000-2010 2000-2010 United States 281,421,906 308,745,538 27,323,632 9.7% Texas 20,851,820 25,145,561 4,293,741 20.6% California 33,871,648 37,253,956 3,382,308 10.0% Florida 15,982,378 18,801,310 2,818,932 17.6% Georgia 8,186,453 9,687,653 1,501,200 18.3% North Carolina 8,049,313 9,535,483 1,486,170 18.5% Arizona 5,130,632 6,392,017 1,261,385 24.6% 15.7% of numerical change in U.S. Population values are decennial census counts for April 1 for 2000 and 2010. Source: U.S. Census Bureau. 2000 and 2010 Census Count. 2
  • 3. Total Population and Components of Population Change in Texas, 1950-2011 Percent Change Due to Numerical Percent Natural Net Year* Population Change Change Increase Migration 1950 7,711,194 -- -- -- -- 1960 9,579,677 1,868,483 24.2 93.91 6.09 1970 11,196,730 1,617,053 16.9 86.74 13.26 1980 14,229,191 3,032,461 27.1 41.58 58.42 1990 16,986,510 2,757,319 19.9 65.85 34.15 2000 20,851,820 3,865,310 22.8 49.65 50.35 2009 24,782,302 3,930,484 18.8 54.04 45.33 2010 25,145,561 4,293,741 20.6 2011 25,674,681 529,120 2.1 54.79 44.99 * All values for the decennial dates are for April 1st of the indicated census year. Values for 2009 and 2011 are for July 1 as estimated by the U.S. Census Bureau. Source: Derived from U.S. Census Bureau Estimates for dates indicated by the Texas State Data Center, University of Texas at San Antonio. Note: Residual values are not presented in this table. 3
  • 4. The 10 Fastest Growing Metro Areas from April 1, 2010, to July 1, 2011 Percent Increase 1. Kennewick-Pasco-Richland, Wash. 4.3 Austin-Round Rock-San Marcos, 2. 3.9 Texas 3. Hinesville-Fort Stewart, Ga. 3.4 4. McAllen-Edinburg-Mission, Texas 3.0 5. Raleigh-Cary, N.C. 2.9 6. Warner Robins, Ga. 2.9 7. Provo-Orem, Utah 2.7 Charleston-North Charleston- 8. 2.6 Summerville, S.C. Myrtle Beach-North Myrtle Beach- 9. 2.6 Conway, S.C. 10. Yuma, Ariz. 2.6 4 Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2012
  • 5. The 10 Metro Areas with the Largest Numeric Increase from April 1, 2010, to July 1, 2011 Numeric Increase 1. Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, Texas 154,774 2. Houston-Sugar Land-Baytown, Texas 139,699 Washington-Arlington-Alexandria, D.C.-Va.-Md.- 3. 121,911 W.Va. New York-Northern New Jersey-Long Island, N.Y.- 4. 118,791 N.J.-Pa. 5. Los Angeles-Long Beach-Santa Ana, Calif. 115,964 6. Miami-Fort Lauderdale-Pompano Beach, Fla. 105,490 7. Atlanta-Sandy Springs-Marietta, Ga. 90,345 8. Riverside-San Bernardino-Ontario, Calif. 80,146 9. Phoenix-Mesa-Glendale, Ariz. 70,349 10. Austin-Round Rock-San Marcos, Texas 67,230 5 Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2012
  • 6. The 10 Counties with the Largest Numeric Increase from April 1, 2010, to July 1, 2011 Numeric Increase 1. Harris, Texas 88,452 2. Los Angeles, Calif. 70,451 3. Maricopa, Ariz. 63,127 4. Miami-Dade, Fla. 58,331 5. Riverside, Calif. 49,979 6. Dallas, Texas 47,875 7. Orange, Calif. 45,513 8. San Diego, Calif. 44,756 9. Bexar, Texas 41,376 10. Tarrant, Texas 40,776 Texas contains eight of the 25 counties with the highest numerical gains 6 Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2012
  • 8. Texas Jobs Growing Faster Than Nation’s 8
  • 9. Estimated Annual Net Migration to Texas, 2000 to 2009 250,000 International State-to-State 200,000 150,000 100,000 50,000 Hurricane Katrina 0 2000 to 2001 to 2002 to 2003 to 2004 to 2005 to 2006 to 2007 to 2008 to 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 Source: U.S. Bureau of the Census 2009 Estimates 9
  • 10. Percent of Migrants to Texas between 2000 and 2009 by Race and Ethnicity 52% of all migrants were international 100% 5% 18% 12% 90% 80% 23% 15% 8% 70% 67% of all 60% migrants 28% 50% 40% 50% 40% Other 30% Black 20% 44% 33% Hispanic 10% 24% White 0% Net domestic International Total migration migration (848,702 migrants ) (933,083 migrants) Sources: Percentages of domestic and international migrants by race and ethnicity derived from the 2006-2008 American Community Survey. Total numbers of domestic and international 10 migrants between 2000-2009 are from Table 4. Cumulative Estimates of the Components of Resident Population Change for the United States, Regions, States, and Puerto Rico: April 1, 2000 to July 1, 2009, U.S. Census Bureau
  • 11. States with Largest Estimated Unauthorized Immigrant Populations, 2010 Estimate State Range (thousands) California 2,550 (2,350 - 2,750) 6.5% of Texas’ 2010 Population Texas 1,650 (1,450 - 1,850) Florida 825 (725 - 950) New York 625 (525 - 725) New Jersey 550 (425 - 650) Illinois 525 (425 - 625) Georgia 425 (300 - 550) Arizona 400 (275 - 500) Source: Pew Hispanic Center estimates based on residual methodology applied to March Supplements to the Current Population Survey (February 1, 2011). 11
  • 12. Estimated domestic migration (2000-2008) by county as a percentage of 2000 population Legend -20 to -45% -19 to -10% -9 to -5% -4 to 0% 1 to 5 % 6 to 20% 21 to 30% 31 to 65% Source: Population Division, U.S. Census Bureau, March 19, 2009. Map produced 12 by the Texas State Data Center
  • 13. Estimated international migration (2000-2008) by county as a percentage of 2000 population Legend 0-1% 1-2.5% 2.5-3.5% 3.5-5% 5-10% Source: Population Division, U.S. Census Bureau, March 19, 2009. Map produced 13 by the Texas State Data Center
  • 16. Texas Racial and Ethnic Composition, 2000 and 2010 2000 2010 Hispanic Hispanic or Latino or Latino 32% 38% NH White NH 45% White NH 53% Other 4% NH NH Black Other NH Black 11% 6% 11% Source: U.S. Census Bureau. 2000 and 2010 Census count
  • 17. Population 50000 0 100000 150000 200000 250000 Under 1 year 4 years 8 years 12 years 16 years 20 years 24 years Source: U.S. Census Bureau 2010 Decennial Census, SF1 28 years 32 years 36 years 40 years 44 years 48 years Age 52 years 56 years 60 years 64 years 68 years 72 years 76 years Hispanic 80 years Texas White (non-Hispanic) and 84 years Hispanic Populations by Age, 2010 88 years 92 years White (non-Hispanic) 96 years 17 100 to 104…
  • 18. Texas Population Pyramid by Race/Ethnicity, 2010 Male White, Non-Hispanic Male Hispanic Male Black, Non-Hispanic Male Asian, Non-Hispanic Male Other, Non Hispanic Female White, Non-Hispanic Female Hispanic Female Black, Non-Hispanic Female Asian, Non-Hispanic Female Other, Non Hispanic 100 to 104 years 95 years 90 years 85 years 80 years 75 years 70 years 65 years 60 years 55 years 50 years 45 years 40 years 35 years 30 years 25 years 20 years 15 years 10 years 5 years Under 1 year 200,000 150,000 100,000 50,000 0 50,000 100,000 150,000 200,000 18 Source: U.S. Census Bureau 2010 Decennial Census, SF1
  • 19. Texas Population Pyramid by Race/Ethnicity, 2010 Male White, Non-Hispanic Female White, Non-Hispanic 100 to 104 years 95 years 90 years 85 years 80 years 75 years 70 years 65 years 60 years 55 years 50 years 45 years 40 years 35 years 30 years 25 years 20 years 15 years 10 years 5 years Under 1 year 200,000 150,000 100,000 50,000 0 50,000 100,000 150,000 200,000 19 Source: U.S. Census Bureau 2010 Decennial Census, SF1
  • 20. Texas Population Pyramid by Race/Ethnicity, 2010 Male Hispanic Male Black, Non-Hispanic Male Asian, Non-Hispanic Male Other, Non Hispanic Female Hispanic Female Black, Non-Hispanic Female Asian, Non-Hispanic Female Other, Non Hispanic 100 to 104 years 95 years 90 years 85 years 80 years 75 years 70 years 65 years 60 years 55 years 50 years 45 years 40 years 35 years 30 years 25 years 20 years 15 years 10 years 5 years Under 1 year 200,000 150,000 100,000 50,000 0 50,000 100,000 150,000 20 200,000 Source: U.S. Census Bureau 2010 Decennial Census, SF1
  • 21. Total Population by County, 2010 Legend co48_d00 'PROJECTIONS X$'.totpop10 82 - 10,000 10,001 - 50,000 50,001 - 100,001 100,001 - 500,001 500,001 - 1,000,000 1,000,001 - 4,100,000 Source: U.S. Census Bureau 2010 Census Counts 21
  • 22. Change of the Total Population by County, 2000 to 2010 Legend co48_d00 79 counties lost 'PROJECTIONS X$'.totpopch0010 population over the -3,200 - 0 decade 1 - 10,000 10,001 - 50,000 50,001 - 100,000 100,001 - 700,000 Source: U.S. Census Bureau 2000 and 2010 Census Counts 22
  • 23. Percent of the Population Less than 18 Years of Age, Living Under Poverty for During Past 12 Months, 2005-2009 5-20% 20-30% 30-40% 40-55% Source: U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey, 5-Year Sample 2005-2009
  • 24. Median Household Income by County, 2005-2009 $18,000-30,000 $ 30,000-35,000 $ 35,000-40,000 $40,000-50,000 $ 50,000-76,000 Source: U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey, 5-Year Sample 2005-2009
  • 25. Educational Attainment in Texas, 2009 Level of Educational Percent of State Attainment persons aged Ranking 25 years and older High school diploma 79.9% 50 or equivalency Bachelors 25.5% 31 Graduate 8.5% 33 Source: U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey, 2009. 25
  • 26. Race/Ethnic Composition by Education Level aged 25 years and more, Texas, 2009 3% 9% 19% 15% 6% 8% 67% 71% College and Greater Less Than High School Source: Derived from 2009 American Community Survey 1-Year Estimates by the Office of the State Demographer. 26
  • 27. Projected Percent of Labor Force by Education Attainment in Texas, 2000 and 2040 35.0 30.1 30.0 29.0 28.7 28.7 25.0 23.9 20.0 Percent 18.8 18.2 15.0 12.9 10.0 5.3 4.4 5.0 0.0 No High School Diploma High School Graduate Some College Bachelor's Degree Graduate/Professional Degree 2000 2040 Source: Texas State Data Center. 2008 Population Projections, 1.0 Migration Scenario.
  • 28. Physicians per 1,000 Population, 2010 Physician Rate Physician Rate Change, 2000-2010 Physicians per 1,000 Population 2000Physicians per 1,000 Population 2010 'PROJECTIONS X$'.phys001 'PROJECTIONS X$'.difphys 0 -3 to -0.5 .01-.5 -0.49 to -.001 .51-1 0 1.1-1.5 .001 to .5 1.51-4 .51-2.1 Source: U.S. Census Bureau. 2000 and 2010 Census Counts. Texas Medical Board. Maps produced by the Texas State Data Center. 28
  • 29. Physicians per 1,000 Population Aged 65 Years and Older by County, 2008 Physcians per 1,000 persons aged 65+ 'Age 65p County$'.Physper1k65p 0 GT 0 - LE 5 GT 5 - LE 10 GT 10 - LE 20 GT 20 Source: U.S. Census Bureau. 2009 Population Estimates. Texas Medical Board. Map produced by the Texas State Data Center. 29
  • 30. Physicians per 100,000 by Metro & Border Status of Counties, 2009 200 180 175 159 160 140 120 110 100 95 80 60 53 40 20 0 Not Border Border Not Border Border Non-Metro Non-Metro Metropolitan Metropolitan Total 2009 Sources: U.S. Census Bureau. 2009 Estimates. Department of State Health Services. Health Professions Resource Center Database. 30
  • 31. Percent of People Lacking Health Insurance Coverage by Metro and Non-Metro Area, 2009 The Census Bureau estimates that in 2009 Texas had the highest uninsured rate in the country, at 26.1%, or 6.4 million people. Texas also had the Metropolitan Areas highest uninsured less than 20% Metropolitan Areas 20.0% to 22.9% rate of children, with less than 20% 23.0% to 25.9% 20.0% to 22.9% over 26% 17.4%, or 1.28 million 23.0% to 25.9% PUMAs over 26% children lacking Non-Metropolitan Areas PUMAs less than 20% insurance. Non-Metropolitan Areas 20.0% to 22.9% less than 20% 23.0% to 25.9% 20.0% to 22.9% over 26% 23.0% to 25.9% over 26% Source: U.S. Census Bureau. 2009 American Community Survey . Map produced by the Texas State Data Center. 31
  • 32. Percent Health Insurance Coverage by Race/Ethnicity and Type of Insurance, 2010 70 66 61 60 52 50 45 40 37 32 34 29 30 25 26 23 22 20 20 14 15 10 0 White Black Hispanic Asian Other None Public Private Note: Public includes individuals with public only and those with public plus private insurance. Private includes individuals who only have private insurance. Source: American Community Survey, 2010 PUMS data 32
  • 33. Projected Population Growth in Texas, 2000-2040 Year Source: Texas State Data Center 2008 Population Projections 33
  • 34. Projected Racial and Ethnic Percent, Texas, 2000-2040 70% 60% 50% 40% Anglo 30% Black Hispanic 20% Other 10% 0% 2000 2002 2004 2008 2010 2012 2014 2018 2020 2022 2024 2030 2032 2034 2040 2006 2016 2026 2028 2036 2038 Source: Texas State Data Center 2008 Population Projections , 2000-2007 Migration Scenario 34
  • 35. Population Aged 65 Years and Older by County, 2009 Estimated Percent 65 Years and Older Population 65 Years and Older Percent of the Total Population aged 65 Pct 2009 Total Population aged 65 plus 2009 TOT_POPP9 TOT_POP9 LE 10% LE 5,000 GT 10% - LE 15% GT 5,000 - LE 15,000 GT 15% - LE 20% GT 15,000 - LE 25,000 GT 20% - LE 25% GT 25,000 - LE 100,000 GT 25% GT 100,000 Source: Texas State Data Center. 2009 Population Estimates. 35 Maps produced by the Texas State Data Center.
  • 36. Projected Population Among Older Texans 3,500,000 3,000,000 2,500,000 2,000,000 Age 65-74 1,500,000 Age 75-85 1,000,000 Age 85+ 500,000 0 2000 2003 2006 2009 2012 2015 2018 2021 2024 2027 2030 2033 2036 2039 Source: Texas State Data Center. 2008 Population Projections, 2000-2004 Migration Scenario. 36
  • 37. Percent of Persons Aged 65 Years and Older by County, 2000 Census and 2040 Projected 2000 Count 2040 Projection Percent 65 Years Old and Older < 11.9 (n=66) <11.9 Percent 65 Years Old and Older 12.0 – 14.9 Source: Institute for Demographic and Socioeconomic Research, < 11.9 (n=2) The University of Texas at San Antonio. Census 2000 Summary File 1. 12.0 - 14.9 (n=70) Source: Institute for Demographic and Socioeconomic Re 12.0 - 14.9 (n=19) The University of Texas at San Antonio. Texas Population 15.0 - 19.9 (n=80) 15.0 – 19.9 15.0 - 19.9 (n=79) and Projections Program, 2006 Projections. 20.0 or more (n=38) 20.0 or more (n=154)more 20.0 or Source: U.S. Census Bureau. 2000 Census Count. Texas State Data Center. 2009 Population Projections. Maps produced by the Texas State Data Center. 37
  • 38. Teen Birth Rate by State, 2006 Birth rate per 1,000 Rank State women ages 15-19 1 Mississippi 68.4 2 New Mexico 64.1 3 Texas 63.1 4 Arkansas 62.3 5 Arizona 62 6 Oklahoma 59.6 7 Nevada 55.8 8 Tennessee 54.7 9 Kentucky 54.6 10 Georgia 54.2 11 Louisiana 53.9 12 Alabama 53.5 Source: National Center for Health Statistics at the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention 38
  • 39. Projected Increase in Obesity in Texas by Ethnicity, 2006 to 2040 Source: Office of the State Demographer projections, using 2000-2004 migration scenario population projections 39
  • 40. Estimated Number of Adults with Obesity Legend by County, 2008 co48_d00 Sheet1$.Nadultobes 0-10,000 10,001-25,000 25,001-75,000 75,001-250,000 250,001-73,000 Source: Centers for Disease Control and Prevention: National Diabetes Surveillance System. Available online at: http://apps.nccd.cdc.gov/DDTSTRS/default.aspx. 40
  • 41. Projected Number of Adults with Diabetes by Race and Ethnicity, Texas, 2010-2040 8,000,000 6,000,000 Total Latino 4,000,000 Anglo African American Other 2,000,000 0 Source: Office of the State Demographer, 2010 41
  • 42. Projected Percent of the Adult Population with Diabetes by County, 2010 and 2040 LE 15% 15-20% 20-25% 25-30% 30-37.5% 2010 2040 42
  • 44. Contact Lloyd Potter, Ph.D., M.P.H. Office: (512) 463-8390 or (210) 458-6530 Email: Lloyd.Potter@osd.state.tx.us Internet: http://osd.state.tx.us 44

Hinweis der Redaktion

  1. Texas is the second largest state in terms of population (2nd to CA) and area (2nd to AK). In terms of number of people, Texas’ growth exceeds that of all other states between 2000 and 2010.
  2. The components of change include natural increase (births-deaths) and net migration (in-out migration). In recent years, natural increase and net migration have contributed almost equally to Texas’ growth. Natural increase is much more predictable and stable than net migration. Net migration tends to fluctuate with economic factors.
  3. Texas has experienced several recessions in the past, the most recent was the most significant.
  4. Migration into Texas has made very significant contributions to our population growth for the past few decades. International migration is estimated to have made significant contributions this decade. Generally, international migration is regulated and tends not to vary substantially from year to year. Internal (state-to-state) migration is estimated to have increased significantly in the middle of this decade and has remained relatively high. This peak in 2005-2006 was also fueled by significant migration from Louisiana post hurricane Katrina. However, with the economic downturn, internal migration into Texas is likely slowed. Internal migration is not regulated by the government and is largely driven by the presence or absence of jobs and economic opportunity. Therefore, internal migration tends to be variable and dependent upon economic fluctuations.
  5. More than half of migrants to Texas over much of the past decade were international migrants. About two-thirds of Texas migrants were members of racial and ethnic minority groups over much of the decade.
  6. Texas has an estimated 1.65 million unauthorized immigrants. Assuming most unauthorized migrants were counted in the Census, this represents about 6.5% of the total population.
  7. This map demonstrates DOMESTIC, or internal, migration made up largely of persons who are citizens or legal residents of the United States. International migrants are not included on this map. Generally, western counties had U.S. residents and citizens moving out and the areas around urban cores had U.S. residents and citizens moving in. Note that Dallas and Harris county have net out domestic migration indicating that persons from these counties may be moving to more suburban adjacent counties.
  8. This map demonstrates in migration of international migrants. Domestic migrants are not included on this map. It is estimated that international migrants made significant contributions to population growth in large urban counties and along the border. Note that Dallas and Harris counties experienced substantial international migration resulting in a positive net in-migration to those counties.
  9. This map from Forbes.com (www.forbes.com/special-report/2011/migration.html) illustrates migration flows for the selected county.
  10. This map from Forbes.com (www.forbes.com/special-report/2011/migration.html) illustrates migration flows for the selected county.
  11. As of the 2000 Census, about 53% of Texas’ population was non-Hispanic Anglo, about 32% where of Hispanic descent, about 11% where non-Hispanic African American, and about 4% were non-Hispanic Other. In 2010, it is estimated that about 45% of the Texas population was non-Hispanic Anglo, 38% of Hispanic descent, 11% were non-Hispanic African American, and about 6% were non-Hispanic Other (largely of Asian descent).
  12. The age distribution of the non-Hispanic white population in Texas is weighted heavily with the “baby boom” generation. Largely the result of lower fertility and less netin-migration, the non-Hispanic white population has relatively fewer young persons relative to those in the middle-age years. In 2010, at ages 37 and younger, the Hispanic population exceeds the non-Hispanic white population.
  13. This population pyramid represents the age, sex, race and ethnic composition of the Texas population. Blue represents males, red females, rows are single years of age, and shades represent specified race/ethnic groups as indicated in the legend.
  14. This population pyramid represents the age and sex composition of the Texas non-Hispanic white population. Blue represents males, red females, rows are single years of age.
  15. This population pyramid represents the age, and sex composition of the minority population in Texas. Blue represents males, red females, rows are single years of age, and shades represent specified race/ethnic groups as indicated in the legend.
  16. The counties of Harris, Bexar, Dallas, Tarrant, and Travis are the most populated in the State. Collin, Denton, Fort Bend, Hidalgo, and El Paso counties also have significant population concentrations. Many counties west of Interstate 35 are more sparsely populated.
  17. 175 counties gained population while 79 lost population over the decade.
  18. The map on the right demonstrates changes in the number of physicians per 1,000 population over the decade. Green counties experienced fewer physicians per population over the decade (about 90 counties). Blue counties are those that experienced an increase in the number of physicians per 1,000 population over the decade (144). There were 20 counties that did not change in the number of physicians per population over the decade. These were counties that did not have any physicians.
  19. Data on this map about physicians licensed to practice in Texas are from the Texas Medical Board. Some rural counties do not have any practicing physicians. The more urban counties appear to have relatively high ratios of physicians to population aged 65+.
  20. Estimates of physicians per 100,000 by metropolitan and border status indicate the availability of physicians is greatest in non-border metropolitan areas and least in non-metropolitan border counties.
  21. Data on health insurance coverage was only available using the public use micro sample of the American Community Survey. Therefore, counties with small populations are lumped together in Public Use Microdata Area (PUMA) boundaries with populations of at least 100,000. For these counties, we assume each county has the same characteristics of the PUMA. Counties with larger populations are shown individually. With these assumptions, about 19% (34 counties) of the 177 non-metropolitan counties had 26% or more of their population lacking health insurance. Of the metropolitan counties 12% (9 counties) had 26% or more of their population lacking health insurance. Generally, populations in non-metropolitan counties tend to lack health insurance more than the populations in metropolitan counties.
  22. Non-Hispanic Asians and non-Hispanic Whites in Texas were most likely to have private health insurance in 2010. Latinos were least likely to have health insurance.
  23. This graph represents variable population projections for the State under different migration scenarios. The base (brown dashed line) is the assumption of no migration. Under this scenario, the State will grow as a function of natural increase (births-deaths). The ½ 1990-2000 scenario (the red split line) is the most conservative. The 2000-2004 and 2000-2007 scenarios reflect estimates of migration for those two periods and suggest more rapid population growth.Under any scenario, even no migration, Texas will continue to grow.
  24. The 2000-2007 migration scenario is likely the most realistic to consider in short term projections. Using this scenario, the number of Hispanics will likely exceed the number of non-Hispanic Anglos in the State around 2015.
  25. Texas is also aging. The age structure of many of the more rural counties are becoming older compared to more urban counties. While many of the urban counties have smaller percentages of their population in the older ages, the actual numbers of people aged 65+ are increasingly concentrated in urban counties and the south border.
  26. The Texas State Data Center population projections indicate significant growth in the number of persons aged 65-74, with slightly less growth for the population aged 75-84 and relevant, but less growth for the 85 plus population.
  27. Texas had the 3rd highest teen birth rate in 2006.
  28. Texas is growing – with more people being added than in any other state.Texas is becoming more urban. Many rural counties are losing population. Urbanized metropolitan areas have been growing dramatically over the decade.Texas is becoming more diverse – much of our growth is attributable to growth of the Hispanic population.
  29. The Office of the State Demographer and the Texas State Data Center are committed to supporting your work through providing you with the best, most accurate, and objective information we can identify about our greatest asset, the people of Texas.