April 2015 Existing Home Sales
Conclusion
At a highlevel, April2015 existinghome salesdeclinedto5.04m unitsversusthe 5.19m...
Belowyoucan see thatthe seasonallyadjustedandannualizedresultsare now equal tothe trailing12 monthactual
sale levels,somet...
2. Quality of the Buyer
April salessaw nochange in the relative participationof firsttime,cash,andinvestorbuyers:
The firs...
3. Identityof the Buyer
Existinghome saleswere drivenbysurgesinthe salesof home pricesabove boththe median($219k) andavera...
South -4.6% 9.7% 17.7% 27.1% -5.4%
West 12.2% 13.6% 25.9% 26.8% 26.1%
Total 1.9% 14.1% 21.0% 18.8% 15.6%
4. Supplyof Homes...
5. Size of Housing to Overall US GDP
Housingactivityisnowback inline with GDP:
3
5
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15
6/1/1982
12/1/1983
6/1/198...
2.00%
3.00%
4.00%
5.00%
6.00%
7.00%
8.00%
9.00%
10.00%
11.00%
12.00%
3/1/1968
6/1/1969
9/1/1970
12/1/1971
3/1/1973
6/1/197...
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April 2015 Existing Home Sales (Grant Toch)

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April 2015 Existing Home Sales (Grant Toch)

  1. 1. April 2015 Existing Home Sales Conclusion At a highlevel, April2015 existinghome salesdeclinedto5.04m unitsversusthe 5.19m unitsreportedinMarch 2015, a numberwe believedwasunsustainable giventhatitreflected“badweatherbounceback”inthe Midwest. The April 2015 results,annualizedandseasonallyadjusted,were the 8th time inthe last12 monthsthatthe annualizedandseasonallyadjustedtotal wasgreaterthan5.0m units. Actual trailing12 monthsales total,whichwere 5.02m unitsinApril 2015, was the 1st time we climbedabove the 5.0m unitlevel since March2014, whichwere also5.02m units. Saidanotherway,trailing12 monthsaleshave been flat,pointtopoint,since March 2014. That said,trailing12 monthsaleshave increased2.6% since the August2014 bottomof 4.9m units. Ona y/ybasis, actual trailing12 monthssaleshave increased0.6%. In addition, fromalevel perspective, these trailingtwelvemonthtotalsremaininlinewithresultsseenin1999 when householdunitswere11%fewerthantoday. Salescontinue tobe drivenbyhomespricedabove the meanandmedian. Supplyof homesonthe marketisconsistentwithlevelsseen during“normal”times. Analysis 1. Volume of Sales  SeasonallyAdjustedResults and Comparison to Actual Trailing 12 Month Sales April 2015 existinghome saleswere 5.04m,annualizedandseasonallyadjusted,adecline fromthe previousmonth, March 2015, whichwas5.21m units. Actual trailing12 monthsales increasedto 5.02m units, the firsttime theyhave beenabove 5.0munitssince March 2014 whentheywere also5.02m units. While salesona trailing12 monthbasisare flatsince March 2013, theyhave increased2.6%from theirbottomhitinAugust2014 (4.89m units)andhave increased0.6% y/y:
  2. 2. Belowyoucan see thatthe seasonallyadjustedandannualizedresultsare now equal tothe trailing12 monthactual sale levels,somethingthatrarelyhappensbutisnotsurprisinggiventhattrailing12 monthactual salesare essentiallyflat(+0.6%) All that said, we remain at levelsseeninthe late 1990s when householdswere 11% less than the current level:  Actual April Sales Actual March 2015 saleswere 44.5k, 5.5% greaterthan April 2014 totalsbut down2% fromApril 2013: Date TTM, in MM y/y Relative to August 2014 12/31/2013 5.087 1/31/2014 5.077 2/28/2014 5.055 3/31/2014 5.023 4/30/2014 4.991 5/31/2014 4.950 6/30/2014 4.956 7/31/2014 4.931 8/31/2014 4.892 9/30/2014 4.901 0.2% 10/31/2014 4.920 0.4% 11/30/2014 4.909 -0.2% 12/31/2014 4.935 -3.0% 0.5% 1/31/2015 4.935 -2.8% 0.0% 2/28/2015 4.948 -2.1% 0.3% 3/31/2015 4.998 -0.5% 2.2% 4/30/2015 5.021 0.6% 2.6% TTM Actual Existing Home Sales 3 3.5 4 4.5 5 5.5 6 6.5 7 7.5 12/1/1999 4/1/2000 8/1/2000 12/1/2000 4/1/2001 8/1/2001 12/1/2001 4/1/2002 8/1/2002 12/1/2002 4/1/2003 8/1/2003 12/1/2003 4/1/2004 8/1/2004 12/1/2004 4/1/2005 8/1/2005 12/1/2005 4/1/2006 8/1/2006 12/1/2006 4/1/2007 8/1/2007 12/1/2007 4/1/2008 8/1/2008 12/1/2008 4/1/2009 8/1/2009 12/1/2009 4/1/2010 8/1/2010 12/1/2010 4/1/2011 8/1/2011 12/1/2011 4/1/2012 8/1/2012 12/1/2012 4/1/2013 8/1/2013 12/1/2013 4/1/2014 8/1/2014 12/1/2014 4/1/2015 Existing Home Sales, Seasonally Adjusted, As Reported Existing Home Sales, Actual, Trailing 12 Months
  3. 3. 2. Quality of the Buyer April salessaw nochange in the relative participationof firsttime,cash,andinvestorbuyers: The firsttime buyerpercentage remainsatlowlevels buthave improvedoff the bottom: 0.3 0.35 0.4 0.45 0.5 0.55 0.6 0.65 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 April Existing Home Sales, Non-Seasonally Adjusted (1999-Present) April Existing Home Sales, Non-Seasonally Adjusted (1999-Present) 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40% May-11 Jul-11 Sep-11 Nov-11 Jan-12 Mar-12 May-12 Jul-12 Sep-12 Nov-12 Jan-13 Mar-13 May-13 Jul-13 Sep-13 Nov-13 Jan-14 Mar-14 May-14 Jul-14 Sep-14 Nov-14 Jan-15 Mar-15 Existing Home Sales, By Type of Buyer Investors 1st Time Buyer All Cash
  4. 4. 3. Identityof the Buyer Existinghome saleswere drivenbysurgesinthe salesof home pricesabove boththe median($219k) andaverage ($265k) andare increasingly movingtothe higherendsof the market: Shownanotherway,youcan see that the accelerationinthe existinghome sale markethascome fromthe price levelsabove the meanandmedian: April 2015 Regional Sales Change Less April 2014 Regional Sales Change, by Price 0-100K 100-250K 250-500K 500-750K 750k-1.0m Northeast -4.6% 10.5% 13.5% 9.3% 15.3% Midwest 9.0% 23.3% 35.7% 19.2% 15.4% 25% 30% 35% 40% 45% 50% 55% 1q09 2q09 3q09 4q09 1q10 2q10 3q10 4q10 1q11 2q11 3q11 4q11 1q12 2q12 3q12 4q12 1q13 Apr-13 May-13 Jun-13 Jul-13 Aug-13 Sep-13 Oct-13 Nov-13 Dec-13 Jan-14 Feb-14 Mar-14 Apr-14 May-14 Jun-14 Jul-14 Aug-14 Sep-14 Oct-14 Nov-14 Dec-14 Jan-15 Feb-15 Mar-15 Apr-15 Existing Home Sales, 1st Time Buyer 1st Time Buyer Y/Y Change in Distribution of Sales, by Price Range - US Overall 0-100K 100-250K 250-500K 500-750K 750k-1.0m 1m+ Apr-15 -10.1% 9.0% 21.2% 19.1% 18.0% 13.0% Mar-15 -4.4% 15.6% 26.9% 24.9% 25.8% 24.0% Feb-15 -9.0% 8.1% 18.1% 16.2% 12.6% 14.3% Jan-15 -10.0% 2.0% 10.1% 4.1% 13.0% 2.4% Dec-14 -4.4% 8.9% 16.0% 15.7% 10.4% 5.2% Nov-14 -16.0% -1.0% 6.8% 7.1% 3.1% 4.5% Oct-14 -6.0% 9.7% 10.7% 10.0% 12.4% 16.2% Sep-14 -7.4% 4.1% 10.0% 6.3% 5.7% 8.1% Aug-14 -15.9% -3.5% -0.8% -1.5% -1.7% 2.7% Jul-14 -12.9% -3.4% 1.1% -1.5% 0.5% 5.0% Jun-14 -8.6% 2.3% 7.2% 4.0% 6.8% 8.5% May-14 -14.5% -6.6% -2.5% -1.7% -0.1% 4.0% Apr-14 -12.0% -5.1% 0.2.% 0.3% 2.4% 5.2%
  5. 5. South -4.6% 9.7% 17.7% 27.1% -5.4% West 12.2% 13.6% 25.9% 26.8% 26.1% Total 1.9% 14.1% 21.0% 18.8% 15.6% 4. Supplyof Homes on the Market Overall supplyonthe market increasedto5.3 monthsfrom4.6 monthsreportedinthe previousmonthbutbelow the 5.7 monthsreportedinApril 2014. While the currentlevel isbelowthe longtermaverage,itisabove the supply level seenduring1999-2005. Nonetheless,at5.3 months,we view the marketasbalanced: The same can be saidof monthsof supplyfor existing1-4familyhomes,whichisnow above the level seenfrom 1998-2006: 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 1/1/1999 10/1/1999 7/1/2000 4/1/2001 1/1/2002 10/1/2002 7/1/2003 4/1/2004 1/1/2005 10/1/2005 7/1/2006 4/1/2007 1/1/2008 10/1/2008 7/1/2009 4/1/2010 1/1/2011 10/1/2011 7/1/2012 4/1/2013 1/1/2014 10/1/2014 Months Supply, Total Existing Homes Months Supply, Total US Existing Homes Average
  6. 6. 5. Size of Housing to Overall US GDP Housingactivityisnowback inline with GDP: 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 6/1/1982 12/1/1983 6/1/1985 12/1/1986 6/1/1988 12/1/1989 6/1/1991 12/1/1992 6/1/1994 12/1/1995 6/1/1997 12/1/1998 6/1/2000 12/1/2001 6/1/2003 12/1/2004 6/1/2006 12/1/2007 6/1/2009 12/1/2010 6/1/2012 12/1/2013 Months Supply, Existing Homes, 1-4 Family Months Supply, Existing Homes, 1-4 Family Average
  7. 7. 2.00% 3.00% 4.00% 5.00% 6.00% 7.00% 8.00% 9.00% 10.00% 11.00% 12.00% 3/1/1968 6/1/1969 9/1/1970 12/1/1971 3/1/1973 6/1/1974 9/1/1975 12/1/1976 3/1/1978 6/1/1979 9/1/1980 12/1/1981 3/1/1983 6/1/1984 9/1/1985 12/1/1986 3/1/1988 6/1/1989 9/1/1990 12/1/1991 3/1/1993 6/1/1994 9/1/1995 12/1/1996 3/1/1998 6/1/1999 9/1/2000 12/1/2001 3/1/2003 6/1/2004 9/1/2005 12/1/2006 3/1/2008 6/1/2009 9/1/2010 12/1/2011 3/1/2013 6/1/2014 Existing Home Sales Median Price * Volume/GDP, Nominal Existing Home Sales Median Price * Volume/GDP Average (1968-Present) Average (1968-6/30/1997)

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