Analysis of the lack of progress in DAB radio consumer take-up in the UK towards the government's targets for digital switchover, written by Grant Goddard in March 2011 for Grant Goddard: Radio Blog.

1. DAB DIGITAL RADIO TAKE-UP IN
THE UK: SEVEN TARGETS
MISSED BY A MILE AT YEAR-
END 2010
by
GRANT GODDARD
www.grantgoddard.co.uk
March 2011

2. “I think that there is great potential for digital radio, as the UK and Danish experiences
demonstrate.”
Neelie Kroes, vice president for the digital agenda, European Commission, 3 March 2011
“This milestone is part of building momentum for the transition to digital radio in the UK
…”
Digital Radio UK, December 2010
“I think that there has been a transformation in the last twelve months.”
Ford Ennals, chief executive, Digital Radio UK, February 2011
“2010 was a fantastic year for the DAB family, with much encouraging news and
positive activity from individual markets …”
Jørn Jensen, president, World DMB, March 2011
“We are seeing increased momentum and activity as digital radio switchover moves
from debate to reality …”
Bernie O’Neil, project director, World DMB, March 2011
“2010 had a real sense of forward momentum and activity …”
Caroline Brindle, project office manager, World DMB, March 2011
“Building momentum”? “Transformation”? “Fantastic year”? “Increased momentum”? “Forward
momentum”?
Is this DAB radio that we are talking about? In the UK, at year-end 2010, the picture looked
like this:
DAB radio receiver penetration:
 2010 year-end forecast: 53.4% (Digital Radio Development Bureau, 2007)
 2010 year-end actual: 35.8%.
DAB Digital Radio Take-Up In The UK: Seven Targets Missed By A Mile At Year-End 2010 page 2
©2011 Grant Goddard

3. Cumulative DAB radio receiver sales:
 2010 year-end forecast: 24.5 million (Digital Radio Development Bureau, 2006)
 2010 year-end actual: 12.5 million.
DAB radio receiver sales as % total receiver sales:
 Q1 2011 forecast: 50% (Digital Radio Working Group, 2009)
 Q1 2010 actual: 21%.
DAB Digital Radio Take-Up In The UK: Seven Targets Missed By A Mile At Year-End 2010 page 3
©2011 Grant Goddard

4. Radio listening via digital platforms:
 2010 year-end forecast: 50% (Ofcom, 2006)
 2010 year-end actual: 25%.
Radio listening via digital platforms:
 2015 year-end forecast: 50% (Digital Radio Working Group, 2009)
 2010 year-end actual: 25%.
DAB Digital Radio Take-Up In The UK: Seven Targets Missed By A Mile At Year-End 2010 page 4
©2011 Grant Goddard

5. Radio listening via digital platforms:
 2010 year-end forecast: 31% (Digital Britain: drive to digital, 2009)
 2010 year-end actual: 25%.
Commercial radio listening via digital platforms:
 2010 year-end forecast: 40% (RadioCentre, 2007)
 2010 year-end actual: 24%.
None of the stakeholder forecasts of DAB take-up in the UK have come to pass. In this
respect, 2010 was no better a year than any other.
Neelie Kroes is mistaken. Evidence from the UK experience certainly does not demonstrate
the “great potential” for DAB radio.
DAB Digital Radio Take-Up In The UK: Seven Targets Missed By A Mile At Year-End 2010 page 5
©2011 Grant Goddard

6. DAB Digital Radio Take-Up In The UK: Seven Targets Missed By A Mile At Year-End 2010 page 6
©2011 Grant Goddard
[First published by Grant Goddard: Radio Blog as 'DAB Radio Take-Up In The UK: The 2010 Year-End Scorecard', 12
March 2011.]
Grant Goddard is a media analyst / radio specialist / radio consultant with thirty years of
experience in the broadcasting industry, having held senior management and consultancy
roles within the commercial media sector in the United Kingdom, Europe and Asia. Details at
http://www.grantgoddard.co.uk