Innomantra Viewpoint - Building Moonshots : May-Jun 2024.pdf
Gol Asia V1 Eng
1. A Consistent Story with
Strong Fundamentals
Non Deal Roadshow Asia - April, 2010
“Here Everyone Can Fly”
1
2. A Consistent Story with
Strong Fundamentals
1| GOL | Evolution of the low cost and low fare model
2| Largest and less penetrated market in the region
3| Consistent Story with Strong Fundamentals
4| Appendix
2
3. A Consistent Story with
Strong Fundamentals
1| GOL - Evolution of the low cost and
low fare model
3
4. Dominant Postion & Standardized B737 Fleet
Widest route network in Latin America: 50 destinations in Brazil and 10 in
South America and Caribbean Region
Brazilian Market Rationale High Frequency network (1) :
No secondary airports Next departure will probably be a GOL flight
“GOL’s Stronghold”
Unbalanced population and GDP Generation
2 hour flight range
Concentrated population density in few large cities Other 65% traffic
Slotted airports 19.2%
GOL 65% population
42.6% 75% Brazilian GDP
Mainstream market demands
150-200 seat aircraft
TAM
38.2% Low cost and strong airport
position prevails
Congonhas Airport Slot-Share Standardized & Young B737NG Fleet
(São Paulo City) (2) (108 aircraft ~150 – 190 seats)
GOL
47.8% Oceanair
4.2%
Azul
0.3%
Webjet
0.6%
TAM
46.3% NHT
0.9% Avg.fleet age: 6 years
Slots Distribution GOL TAM Others
Before VRG Aquisition
27% 43% 30%
(1) Considering Pantanal’s redistribution: Azul and Webjet slots are weekends only and NHT 10 out of 28 slots’ are weekdays
(2) Source: Infraero Brazilian Airport Authority From Jul-Oct/09 – Congonhas, Brasilia, Recife, Santos Dumont, Confins, Salvador, Galeão, Porto Alegre and Curitiba) 4
5. Cost Leadership and Intelligent Sales Channels
Strong position in Latin America and low cost high efficient sales
channels, generates cross sales and improves GOL’s dynamic yield
management
2009 Total Cost / Passenger (US$) (1) One of the Largest E-commerce Platforms
in LATAM w/ 40mm unique visitors per year
5.9 5.7
4.4 94.0%
92.4%
90.0%
2007 2008 2009
Online seat sales (R$ Bn) voegol.com % of net revenues
Largest Loyalty and Client Financing Programs in LATAM Strong Code Share and Loyalty Program Integration Agreements
with the dominant long haul players (2)
69% pax.
Customer Loyalty Financing Brazil Spain
31% Pax.
+ + 36% pax.
Brazil Europe
Corporate Partnerships Educating Brazil USA
+ +
Value to GOL Shareholders Marketing
38% Pax.
Brazil N.America 61% pax. 100% pax.
Brazil France Brazil Holland
85% pax.
Increase operating margins by selling “empty seats” Brazil Mexico
(1) Source: Companies reports: considers COPA, LAN and TAM as LATAM peers, and RyanAir, SowthWest, EasyJet, Westjet and
JetBlue, as low cost peers
(2) Source: ANAC – Brazilian Airlines Regulator, 2008 Annual Report 5
6. Simple Strategic Rational
GOL will improve profitability by increasing passenger volume, generating
ancillary revenue and reducing fixed and variable cost in the short, medium and long run
Increase RASK Decrease CASK
Tap the new new middle class Fleet size management (demand x supply)
Further penetrate in the business segment Maximize fleet utilization rate
60mm passengers/year in Brazil
Interstate bus transports over
Increase sales to international clients Reduce fleet GAP
Increase ancillary revenues (new products) Next Generation Fleet
Develop cargo business Reduce maintenance cost (spare parts inventory and
engine overhauls)
New e-commerce platform
Reduce fuel cost
Buy on Board
Higher utilization rate
Wireless onboard entertainment
GOL x Interstate Bus Cost-Benefit Comparison
São Paulo – Fortaleza Interstate Bus GOL São Paulo – Salvador Interstate Bus GOL
Fare (one-way) R$347 R$358 Fare (one-way) R$317 R$261
Time 50 hours 3 hours Time 36 hours 2 hours
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7. Evolution of the Low Cost Low Fare Concept
GOL combines an intelligent low-cost low-fare model with the Brazilian market
dynamics to achieve higher customer satisfaction and return to investors
Dynamic yield
management and new
ancillary revenues
Higher operating More customer
margin and stronger satisfaction and new
balance sheet products
Optimize fleet utilization
and further dilute unit costs
7
8. A Consistent Story with
Strong Fundamentals
2| Largest and less penetrated market in
the region
8
9. Brazil is Growing Consistently
Economy and consumer market growth is leading a larger addressable market
Brazilian Consumer Confidence Reached the Highest
Domestic Traffic Grows Consistently Above GDP Level In History
159
155
141 131 140
Consistent Brazilian GDP Growth (%) 119 128 127
107 115
100 96
2009 -0.2%
2008 5.1%
99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10/jan
2007 6.1%
Strong Expansion of Disposable Income (%YoY)
2006 4.0% 4.9%
2009
2005 3.2% 2008 12.5%
2007 12.7%
Domestic Air Transportation Demand Consistently Grows 2006 10.8%
at Least 2x the Brazilian GDP (% YoY)
2005 10.7%
2009 17.6%
Strong and Continuous Brazilian Real Wages Growth
2008 7.4% (%YoY)
2009 3.9%
2007 11.7%
2008 7.5%
2006 12.3%
2007 4.9%
2005 19.4% 2006 5.6%
2005 4.5%
Source: Banco Bank and ANAC (Brazilian Civil Aviation Regulator)
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10. Larger and High Potential Market...
Although the low penetration, the Brazilian consumer base is
growing and pushing the addressable market
Brazil is Still is Under Penetrated Market Brazilian New Middle Class Growth (mm)
Flights per capita – Annual Average
2.6
2.2 2.1
1.5 2009 98
1.4
1.2
0.8
0.3 0.4 0.4
0.2
+29%
2003 76
Canada USA Australia Mexico Chile Argentina Brazil
Flights per Capita Flights per capita adjusted by GDP per capita
Poverty Ratio (%YoY) Playing a Key Role to Expand Adressable Market (%YoY) Growing Very Strong
Market Opportunities in Brazil
128mm
2008 16.0% 2008 7.6%
2007 3.4%
2007 18.3%
+30%
2006 5.6%
2006 19.3%
2005 11.0%
2005 22.6% 2004 1.3% 98mm
Source: IBGE – Brazilian Geography and Statistics Institute and Bradesco Bank
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11. Olympics & World Cup to Boost Traffic in Brazil
Past events raised air traffic demand to new levels
Main benefits to GOL: World Cup hosting cities
Boosts international and domestic traffic
Strengthens country's exposure to the travel and
tourism industries
Brazilian Government committed R$5 billion to invest in airport
infrastructure
Private sector and Government entities are already discussing
infrastructure alternatives
No significant infrastructure short term risk
Air Travel Passengers Transported (mm)
China Germany South Africa
186
180
156 9810096
137 89 11.8 11.5 11.4 11.5
120
9.8
86 63 68 9.1
71 53 57 8.0
46 46
59 38 43 43
43 43 44 51 29 32 35
31 31 41 40
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008
Source: ICAO (International Civil Aviation Organization) – considers domestic carriers for both international and domestic flights
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12. A Consistent Story with
Strong Fundamentals
3| Consistent Story with Strong
Fundamentals
12
13. 2009: Delivered GOL Turnaround
GOL posted higher profitability growth rate compared to peers
GOL Milestones
EBIT Margin Growth 08-09 (percentage points YoY)
2001-2003: pre-ipo & nationwide coverage years
GOL 8.2
2004-2006: IPO and network expansion years
JetBlue 6.0
2007-2008: VRG Acquisition years
Sowthwest 1.6
2009-Post VRG Merge Years EasyJet -1.6
LAN -2.6
3Q08 Turnaround: Main Targets Copa 0.4
Improve cost structure
Increase profitability in the next years Cash and Equivalents (R$MM)
1,393
Improve quality of services 1,442
Develop new products / ancillary revenues
592
20% of cash versus LTM Net Revenues
Reduce leverage ratios
2007 2008 2009
Further align management and shareholders Disponibilidades (R$MM)
Cash and Equivalents (R$MM) Cash /LTM Net Revenues Líquida
Disponibilidades/Receita
Gross Adjusted Debt (R$MM) and Leverage Ratio
Return on Equity 2009(%)
7,936 GOL 34.1%
7,689
JetBlue 3.8%
7,382 Sowthwest 3.3%
EasyJet 5.50%
LAN 20.9%
2007 2,008 2009
Divida Bruta Ajustada Divida Bruta Ajust./EBITDAR+ Rec Fin
Adj. Gross Debt/EBITDAR + Fin. Rev. Copa 27.8%
Adjusted Gross Debt
Source:Companies reports and Reuters
TAM and Ryanair were not included as full year results were not yet disclosed 13
14. A Consistent Story with Strong Fundamentals
Despite the recovery in 2009, GOL should continue to delivery strong
growth, while still way undervalued versus other maturated investment stories
Market has high growth potential EV / LTM EBITDAR
Still strong space to generate more value GOL 7.5
in short, medium and long terms JetBlue 7.7
Sowthwest 12.3
2010 guidance already implies strong EBIT
EasyJet 11.3
margin growth
LAN 12.7
Management has been delivering very Copa 10.5
consistent results
Management is 100% aligned with GOL Share Evolution Last 12 Months
shareholders 18
16
14
Management holds strong knowledge of the 12
Brazilian market dynamics and regulation 10 US$12.4
8
6
Controller shareholder is buying shares 4 +244%
(again) – reinvesting 2009 dividends 2 US$3.4
0
14
15. GOL Investor Relations
Leonardo Pereira
VP, CFO and IR Officer
Rodrigo Alves, Raquel Kim & Mario Liao
Investor Relations
+55 11 2128-4700
ri@golnaweb.com.br
www.voegol.com.br/ir
This presentation contains forward-looking statements relating to the prospects of the
twitter.com/GOLinvest business. estimates for operating and financial results. and those related to growth
prospects of GOL. These are merely projections and. as such. are based exclusively
on the expectations of GOL’s management concerning the future of the business and
its continued access to capital to fund the Company’s business plan. Such forward-
looking statements depend. substantially. on changes in market conditions. government
regulations. competitive pressures. the performance of the Brazilian economy and the
industry. among other factors and risks disclosed in GOL’s filed disclosure documents
and are. therefore. subject to change without prior notice.
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17. Mind the RASK – CASK Spread
2010 results to improve cash flow generation and set GOL to be
one of the highest growing airlines worldwide
2010 Guidance 2009 (A) Worst Case Best Case
Brazilian GDP Growth -0,2% 5.0% 6.0%
Domestic Demand Growth (% RPKs) 17,6% 12.5% 18.0%
Supply and Demand Growth in relation to GDP NM 2.5x 3.0x
Passengers Transported (GOL million) 28.4 31.5 36.5
ASKs, System (billion) 40.0 45.0 47.2
Load Factor (%) 65% Approx. 70% Approx. 70%
Fleet (End of the period) 108 111 111
Yield (R$ cents) 20,34 19.50 21.00
RPK, System (billion) 26.1 31.5 33.0
Departures (000) 274 290 300
CASK ex-fuel (R$ cents) 9.5 8.9 8.5
Fuel litters consumed (billion) 1.29 1.45 1.47
Fuel Price (R$/ liter) 1.40 1.70 1.58
Average WTI (US$ / barrel) 62 82 77
Average Exchange Rate (R$/ US$) 1.99 1.85 1.72
Operating Margin (EBIT) 6.9% 10% 13%
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18. Domestic Market is Showing Clear Rationality
GOL was the most conservative company in the industry in 2009 and 2010,
adding capacity according to demand growth in its network
Demand (RPK bn), Capacity (ASK bn) and Load Factor (%) 2009 x 2008
+7.2%
+22.0%
34,8 49.5 +19.7%
32.5
40.6
+14.9% 33.0
66.9%
27.6
23.3 67.9%
62.4% 20.3 66.6%
ASK GOL RPK GOL ASK Industry (ex-GOL)
ASK Indústria (ex-GOL) RPK Indústria(ex-GOL)
RPK Industry (ex-GOL)
2008 2009
2008 2009
Brazil Showing Strength in 2010: GOL added 21% capacity vs. 38% demand growth
Demand (RPK bn), Capacity (ASK bn) and Load Factor (%): Jan and Feb 2010 x Jan and Feb 2009
+21.5%
+21.0%
+38.4% 9.3
6.5 +35.1%
5.3 4.9 7.7 6.9
75.0% 3.5 5.1
65.9% 74.6%
66.8%
ASK GOL RPK GOL ASK Indústria(ex-GOL)
ASK Industry (ex-GOL) RPK Industry (ex-GOL)
RPK Indústria (ex-GOL)
2008
2009 2009
2010 2008
2009 2009
2010
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19. Flexible Strategy Optimizes Profitability
Higher yields are not necessarily good news: mind the RASK – CASK spread
Weak Economy Scenario Strong Economy Scenario
High volatility in currency and oil prices High GDP growth
Declining GDP Strong consumer confidence
Low consumer confidence Consumer base growth (new middle class)
Leisure and tourism industry growth
Focus on “GOL’s Stronghold” (e.g. 1H09) Boost Intelligent LCC Model (e.g. 1H10)
Cautious yield management Stimulate demand to further penetrate the market
Focus on business segment and mainstream airports Increase fleet utilization rate (unit cost dilution)
Reduce fleet utilization rate Increase profitability through increasing RASK-CASK spread
Market share trends to decrease Market share trends to increase
Sensitivity Analisys vs. 2010 Guidance
Trend vs. Guidance (1) or reflect in operations (2)
Assumption / Scenario Weaker Economy Stronger Economy
Demand (1) Bottom Top
Yield (1) Top Bottom
Load Factor (1) Bottom Top
Fleet Average Utilization Rate (2) Decrease Increase
Average Stage Length (2) Decrease Increase
RASK (2) Increase Increase
CASK (2) Stable / Increase Decrease
Operating Margin (RASK – CASK) (1) Bottom Top
Cash Flow Generation (2) Smaller Larger
19
22. Improvement in Financial Indicators
Better operating results and cash-generating initiatives have strengthened
GOL’s balance sheet, preparing it to support accelerated growth
Cash and Equivalents (R$MM) Net Debt (R$MM)
1,393 2,828
1,442
1,692
1,213
592
2007 2008 2009 2007 2008 2009
Cash and Equivalents
Disponibilidades (R$MM) as % of LTM net revenues
Disponibilidades/Receita Líquida Dívida Liquida (R$MM)
Net Debt (R$MM) Net Debt/EBITDAR
Dívida Líquida/EBITDAR
(R$MM)
EBITDA/Financial Expenses Gross Adjusted Debt (R$MM)
1.9
7,936
7,689
7,382
0.5
0.1
2007 2,008
2008 2009 2007 2008
2,008 2009
Adjusted Gross Debt
Divida Bruta Ajustada
Divida Bruta Ajust./EBITDAR+ Rec FinRev.
Adjusted Gross Debt/EBITDAR + Fin.
22
23. Confortable Debt Payment Schedule
Comfortable debt repayment schedule and looking forward to rollover
2010 debt maturities
R$ MM – as of December 31, 2009
Debt Amortization 2010 2011 2012 2013 After 2013 Total
Working Capital 160.0 - - - - 160.0
BDMG loan 2.8 2.8 2.8 2.8 0.2 11.4
BNDES loan 14.4 14.4 8.4 - - 37.1
Debentures - 94.4 94.4 94.4 94.4 377.8
IFC loan 14.5 14.5 14.5 14.5 - 58.0
Senior notes * - - - - 365.7 365.7
Total 191.7 126.1 120.1 111.8 460.3 1,010.0
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24. Competition and Fuel Price Correlation
Fuel price and industry supply providing much better scenario for GOL
Fuel Price Evolution Industry Domestic Average Fare Evolution
53.2%
396 418
1.93 377
1.70 1.72 45.8% 315
17.2% 1.40 287
1.26
1.2%
2.4%
-4.7%
-26.7% -27.5%
-24.0% -24.5%
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
Average Fuel Price (GOL R$) Industry Domestic Average Fare (R$)
Average Fuel Price Change (GOL %YoY) Industry Domestic Average Fare (%YoY)
Demand is Surpassing Supply Since 2H09 GOL Focuses on Market Strength not Leadership
114 114 74.8%
102 28.3% 37.1% 43.0% 42.4% 41.4% 41.3%
81 80
72.3% 72.2% 68.1% 68.1% 43.0%
66.8%
49.1% 45.6% 42.7%
48.8% 50.4%
16
28.8%
13.8% 8.2% 7.2% 13.0% 16.1%
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2M10 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2M10
Industry Suppy Industry Load Factor
GOL TAM Others
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25. Dividends and Capital Increase
Ensure that shareholders receive dividends without failing to comply with
the commitment to these same shareholders to strengthen the Company’s balance sheet
Shareholding breakdown - Before Offering ON % ON PN % PN Total % Total
Fundo ASAS 133,199,642 100.0% 35,610,616 26.9% 168,810,258 63.6%
Board of Directors and Executive Members 16 0.0% 1,865,686 1.4% 1,865,702 0.7%
Free-float - 0.0% 94,209,315 71.3% 94,209,315 35.5%
Treasury - 0.0% 454,425 0.3% 454,425 0.2%
Total 133,199,658 100.0% 132,140,042 100.0% 265,339,700 100.0%
Total ex-Treasury 133,199,658 131,685,617 264,885,275
Shares to be issued ON % ON PN % PN Total % Total
Total 3,833,077 100,0% 3,789,507 100,0% 7,622,584 100,0%
Shareholding breakdown – After the Offering ON % ON PN % PN Total % Total
(pro forma 100% subscription)
Fundo ASAS 137,032,718 100.0% 36,635,380 27.0% 173,668,098 63.6%
Board of Directors and Executive Members 16 0.0% 1,919,375 1.4% 1,919,391 0.7%
Free-float - 0.0% 96,920,370 71.3% 96,920,370 35.5%
Treasury - 0.0% 454,425 0.3% 454,425 0.2%
Total 137,032,735 100.0% 135,929,549 100.0% 272,962,284 100.0%
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26. Strong Operational Support
Financial strength and high corporate governance standards are key to
ensure long term profitability
Cash & equivalents higher than 23.9% of LTM net 100% tag-along rights for non-voting PN shareholders
revenues (R$1.4 billion)
25% minimum dividend payout ratio
Comfortable debt amortization schedule Active Board of Directors
4 independent members, including Chairman
Significant improvement in all financial ratios in 2009
Proactive advisory committees
Positive operating cash flow generation in the last 7
quarters (including 1Q10) Risk & Finance, Audit, Corporate Governance &
People Management & Strategy
Strong Exim-Bank Support: US$280 Final Commitment
Management compensation aligned with shareholders
and linked to share price
3m average trading volume R$71 MM
Ranked #1 (Market Pool)
Best Managed LATAM 2010 – Airlines & Aviation
2010 Most convincing coherent business strategy
Sound practice of corporate governance
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