The document provides an overview and analysis of the 2016 US presidential election as of February 2016. It summarizes polling data and predictions for both the Republican and Democratic primaries. For the Republican primary, Ted Cruz won the Iowa caucus with high evangelical turnout. Donald Trump led in most New Hampshire polls but recent activity suggested Cruz may do better than expected. For the Democratic primary, Hillary Clinton barely edged out Bernie Sanders in Iowa. Clinton led national polls but Sanders had narrowed the gap and led strongly in New Hampshire.

1. Election 2016 – A Brief Overview
and Analysis
FEBRUARY 9, 2016

2. M O O D O F T H E C O U N T R Y

3. PAGE 3
O N E T H I N G A M E R ICA NS A L L A G R E E O N : G O V E RNME NT N O T
W O R K IN G
Source: Gallup
vCongress' job approval is 16%
v34% of Americans are satisfied with our system of government and the way it
works (down by half from 15 years ago)
vDysfunctional government was overall the single most important U.S. problem
Americans mentioned throughout 2015
v32% of Americans have a great deal or fair amount of confidence in the
legislative branch of government, within a few percentage points of the lowest
reading in Gallup's history of this measure

4. PAGE 4
M A J O RI TY O F A M E R I CAN V O T ERS WA N T A L E A D E R W H O W I L L
B R I N G G R E ATER C H A N GES , E V E N I F H E / S H E H A S L E S S
E X P E RI ENC E
Source: NBC/WSJ Survey, January 9-13,2016
Thinking about the2016 presidential elections,which of thefollowing statements
comes closers to your point of view.
36%
61%
3%
Depends /
Not sure
Statement A: This is a time
when it is important to look
for a more experienced and
tested person even if he or
she brings fewer changes
to the current policies.
Statement B: This is a time
when it is important to look for
a person who will bring
greater changes to the current
policies even if he or she is
less experiences and tests.

5. Source: NBC News/ Wall Street Journal Survey, January 9-13, 2016 PAGE 5
B U T I S 2 0 1 6 R E A L LY A C H A N G E E L E C TIO N?
Strongly Democrat
33%
Notstrongly
Democrat
13%Notstrongly
Republican
10%
Strongly
Republican
33%
Other
5%
Notsure
6%
Putting aside for a moment the question of whoeach party’s nomineemight be, what is your preference for the outcome of the2016
presidential election– that a Democrat be elected president or that a Republican be elected president?And do you strongly prefer a
[Democrat/Republican], or is your preferencenotthat strong?
Total Republican:
43%
Total Democrat:
46%
November 2007
Republican 39%
Democrat 49%
Not sure 11%

6. 2 0 1 6 – E L E C T IO N P R E V I E W – T H E P R E S I D E N CY :
R E P U B L I CA N N O M I N A T I ON

7. PAGE 7
T H E G O P PAT H T O A P R E S I DEN TIA L N O M I NATI ON
The calendar is shorter. Republicans shortened their primary process togivetheir nominee
more timeto raisemoney and campaign for the November election.
Phase 1: February
133 delegates atstake
5.4% oftotal awarded
Phase 2: Early March
963 delegates atstake
39% oftotal awarded
Phase 3: Late March
474 delegates atstake
19% oftotal awarded
Phase 4: April– June
902 delegates atstake
36% oftotal awarded
133 963 474 902
Candidates need 1,237 delegates to win the nomination.
Total =
2,472
Source: The Wall Street Journal

8. PAGE 8
S TA R TED W I T H 1 7 , N O W D O W N T O 9 C A N D I DATES . H O W M A N Y
W I L L B E L E F T A F T E R N E W H A M PS HIR E?
Dropped Out

9. 0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
Rubio Trump Cruz
Chancesofbecomingthe
Republican presidentialnominee
Before Iowa caucus After Iowa caucus
51%
30%
8%
PAGE 9
T R U M P L E A DS I N N AT I O NAL P O L LI NG; B I G S H I F T I N
P R E D IC TIO NS M A R K ETS F O L L OWI NG I O WA
Source: HuffPost Pollster Trend, June 2015-Feb, 2016
12% 14%
9%
9%
7% 6% 5% 5%
6%
5% 6% 6%
8%
13%
18% 19%
11%
8%
6%
9%
10%
15%
10%
15%
5%
15%
31%
28% 28%
34%
39%
35%
10%
8%
14%
17%
21%
14%
8%
8%
June July Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb
2016 Republican Primary Preference
Among RepublicanandRepublicanleaning voters
Bush Cruz Rubio Trump Carson
44%
33%
Source: PredictWise
13%
Rubio
was at
61%
before
NH
debate
Trump
was at
22%
before
NH
debate

10. PAGE 10
T E D C R U Z W O N T H E I O WA R E P U BLI CAN C A U C US, W I T H T H E H IGH
T U R N OUT O F E VA N GEL ICAL A N D B O R N -A GAI N C H R IS TIA NS
A I D I N G H I S V I C T ORY
Source CNN
Candidate % of Votes
Number of
Delegates
Ted Cruz 28% 8
Donald Trump 24% 7
Marco Rubio 23% 7
Ben Carson 9% 3
Jeb Bush 3% 1
Carly Fiorina 2% 1
John Kasich 2% 0
Mike Huckabee 2% 0
Chris Christie 2% 0
Rick Santorum 1% 0
34%
22% 21%
64%
18%
29% 26%
36%
Cruz supporter Trump supporter Rubio supporter Total
% of born-again and evangelical Christian voters
at the Iowa Republican caucus
Born-again/evangelical Christian
Notborn-again/evangelical Christian

11. PAGE 11
N E W H A M P SH IRE – W H AT’ S AT S TA K E?
Source: Huffington Post
New Hampshire Primary
Information
When?
Tuesday,
February 9th
Number of
Delegates
23
Voter
Eligibility
Open Primary
Delegate
Selection
Proportional
Key
Component
400,000
undeclared voters
New Hampshire has
gone differently than
Iowa in each ofthe last
six open elections on
the Republicanside.
In 2012, Mitt Romney
won the Republican
primary in New
Hampshire with 39% of
the votes.
2012 results by County
Source: PoliticalMaps.org

12. PAGE 12
T R U M P H A S C O N S IST ENTLY L E A D I N N E W
H A M P SH IRE P O L L S
Source: HuffPost Pollster Trend, June 2015-Feb, 2016
14%
13%
11%
9%
8%
8% 7%
8%
10%
5% 5% 5%
5% 6%
8%
11% 11%
12%
7% 6% 5%
5%
8% 10%
12% 13%
15%
12%
15%
21%
25%
27% 27% 27%
30% 31%
5%
6%
7% 9%
11% 11%
8%
4% 3%
June July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb
2016 Republican Primary Preference
Among RepublicanandRepublicanleaning voters in New Hampshire
Bush Cruz Rubio Trump Carson
Candidate Average
Donald Trump 31.0%
Marco Rubio 14.7%
John Kasich 14.1%
Ted Cruz 11.9%
Jeb Bush 10.2%
Chris Christie 5.8%
Carly Fiorina 4.6%
Ben Carson 2.5%
HuffPost Pollster Trend
as of February 9th
, 2016
ØIn the history ofNew Hampshire
presidential primaries,therehas
never been a Democratic or
Republican contestwhere five or
more candidates won 10% or more
of the vote.

13. PAGE 13
R E C E NT O N L I NE A C T I VI TY S U G G ESTS C R U Z M I G H T D O B E T T ER
T H A N E X P E CTED I N N E W H A M P S HIRE
Source: Brandwatch
0
10000
20000
30000
40000
50000
60000
2/6/16 2/7/16 2/8/16 2/9/16
National
Ben
Carson Carly
Fiorina Chris
Christie Donald
Trump
Jeb
Bush John
Kasich Marco
Rubio Ted
Cruz
0
50
100
150
200
250
2/6/16 2/7/16 2/8/16 2/9/16
New
Hampshire
Ben
Carson Carly
Fiorina Chris
Christie Donald
Trump
Jeb
Bush John
Kasich Marco
Rubio Ted
Cruz
Volume

14. PAGE 14
N E W H A M P SH IRE P R E DIC TIO N M A R KE TS A N D P U N D ITS
Source: FiveThirtyEight polls-plus forecast is based on state polls, national polls, and endorsements
PredictWise prediction data are based on odds from the Betfair and PredictIt betting exchanges and markets, and aggregate polling data from HuffPost Pollster
6%
7%
7%
78%
John Kasich
Jeb Bush
Marco Rubio
Donald Trump
PredictWiseChance ofWinningNewHampshire Primary
As ofFebruary 9th
70%
10%
10%
6%
Donald Trump
Marco Rubio
John Kasich
Jeb Bush
FiveThirtyEight.comChance ofWinningNewHampshire Primary
As ofFebruary 9th

15. Source: CNN/WMUR, February 4-8, 2016 PAGE 15
M O S T N H G O P P R I M ARY V O T E RS A R E U N C E RTAI N O F W H O T H E Y
W I L L S U P P ORT, B U T N E A R LY A T H I R D W O U LD D E F INI TELY N O T
S U P P ORT T R U MP
46%
24%
31%
Definitely decided
Leaning toward someone
Still trying to decide
Have you definitely decided who you will vote for in the New
Hampshire primary, are you leaning toward someone, or have
you considered some candidate but are still trying to decide?
1%
3%
4%
4%
7%
13%
13%
32%
Carson
Kasich
Christie
Fiorina
Rubio
Bush
Cruz
Trump
Which of the candidates who are either running or
considering running for the Republican nomination would
you NOT vote for under any circumstance?

16. Source: 2012 Exit Polls PAGE 16
N E A R LY H A L F W H O V O T ED I N 2 0 1 2 M A D E U P T H E I R M I N D S
A B O U T W H O T O B A C K W I T HI N T H E L A S T F E W D AY S B E F OR E T H E
V O T I NG B E G AN

17. 2 0 1 6 – E L E C T IO N P R E V I E W – T H E P R E S I D E N CY :
D E M O C R A T I C N O M I N A T I O N

18. PAGE 18
T H E D E M O CR ATIC PATH T O A P R E S I DENT IAL N O M I NATI ON
Democrats followed suit after the Republicans shortened their primary calendar.
Phase 1: February
186 delegates atstake
4% oftotal awarded
Phase 2: Early March
1,389 delegates atstake
29% oftotal awarded
Phase 3: Late March
1,113 delegates atstake
23% oftotal awarded
Phase 4: April– June
2,073 delegates atstake
44% oftotal awarded
186 1,389 1,113 2,073
Candidates need 2,383 delegates to win the nomination.
*Keep in mind there are 713 superdelegates (public officials
and party insiders who are free to back any candidate and
aren’t selected in primaries or caucuses), of which Hillary
Clinton has already won commitments from more than 350.
Total =
4,761
Source: The Wall Street Journal

19. PAGE 19
H I L L A RY C L I NTON B A R ELY C O M E S O U T O N T O P I N T H E I O WA
D E M O CRAT IC C A U C US
Large discrepancy in age and most important candidate quality between those who supported
Clinton versus Sanders.
Source: The Washington Post
Candidate
Number of
Delegates
Hillary Clinton 49.9% 23
Bernie Sanders 49.6% 21
Martin O’Malley 0.6% 0
Clinton Sanders
Age
17-29
(18% of caucus goers)
14% 84%
30-44
(19% of caucus goers)
37% 58%
45-64
(36% of caucus goers)
58% 35%
65+
(28% of caucus goers)
69% 26%
Most important candidate quality
Can win in November
(20% of caucus goers)
77% 17%
Has right experience
(28% of caucus goers)
88% 9%
Cares about people like
(26% of caucus goers)
22% 74%
Honest and trustworthy
(24% of caucus goers)
10% 83%

20. PAGE 20
C L I N TON L E A DS N AT IONA LLY, B U T S A N DER S H A S N A R R OWED
H E R L E A D ; L I T T LE C H A N GE I N P R E D ICT ION M A R KET S A F T ER
I O WA
Source: HuffPost Pollster Trend, June 2015-Feb, 2016
12%
17% 18%
24% 25%
30% 31%
34%
37%
60% 58%
54%
47% 45%
55% 56% 55%
50%
June July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb
2016 Democratic Primary Preference
Among registered/leaned Democrats
Sanders Clinton
Source: PredictWise
83%
16%
83%
17%
Clinton Sanders
Chancesofbecomingthe Democratic
presidential nominee
Before Iowa Caucus After Iowa Caucus

21. PAGE 21
N E W H A M P SH IRE – W H AT’ S AT S TA K E?
Source: The New York Times
NewHampshirePrimaryInformation
When? Tuesday,February 9th
Number of Delegates 32
Voter Eligibility ModifiedPrimary
Delegate Selection Proportional
Key Component 400,000undeclaredvoters
39.1%, 9 delegates
36.5%, 9 delegates
2008 results by County
In 2008, Hillary Clinton
won the Democratic
primary in New
Hampshire with 39% of
the votes.

22. PAGE 22
S A N D ER S P O L L ING FA R A H E A D O F C L I N TON I N N E W H A M P SH IRE
Candidate Average
Bernie Sanders 54.8%
Hillary Clinton 40.7%
HuffPost Pollster Trend
as of February 9th
, 2016
Source: HuffPost Pollster Trend, June 2015-Feb, 2016
26%
30%
37%
41% 42% 43%
47%
51%
55%
45% 44%
40%
38% 37%
40%
44%
41% 41%
June July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb
2016 Democratic Primary Preference
Among Democratic and Democratic leaning voters in New Hampshire
Sanders Clinton

23. PAGE 23
N E W H A M P SH IRE P R E DIC TIO N M A R KE TS A N D P U N D ITS
98%
2%
Bernie
Sanders
Hillary
Clinton
PredictWise Chance of Winning
New Hampshire Primary
As of February 9th
> 99%
< 1%
Bernie
Sanders
Hillary
Clinton
FiveThirtyEight.com Chance of Winning
New Hampshire Primary
As of February 9th
Source: FiveThirtyEight polls-plus forecast is based on state polls, national polls, and endorsements
PredictWise prediction data are based on odds from the Betfair and PredictIt betting exchanges and markets, and aggregate polling data from HuffPost Pollster

24. P R I M A R Y S E A S O N

25. PAGE 25
T H E O P E N I NG R O U N D – F E B R UA RY 1 S T – 2 7 TH
REPUBLICANS
THE OPENING ROUND
IA > NH > SC > NV
133 DELEGATES
DEMOCRATS
THE OPENING ROUND
IA > NH > NV > SC
186 DELEGATES

26. Source: Huffington Post, PAGE 26
T H E I M P O RTA NCE O F T H E T R I N I TY
Year Iowa
New
Hampshire
South
Carolina
Nominee President
1980 Bush Reagan Reagan Reagan Reagan
1988 Dole Bush Bush Bush Bush
1996 Dole Buchanan Dole Dole Clinton
2000 Bush McCain Bush Bush Bush
2008 Huckabee McCain McCain McCain Obama
2012 Santorum Romney Gingrich Romney Obama
Open GOP nominations since ’80: 6
GOP won 3 of those 6 elections
Candidates who ‘ran table’ early: 0
Open Democratic nominations since’80: 6
Democrat won 2 of those6 elections
Candidates who ‘ran table’ early: 1
Year Iowa
New
Hampshire
South
Carolina
Nominee President
1984 Mondale Hart Jackson Mondale Reagan
1988 Gephardt Dukakis Jackson Dukakis Bush
1992 Harkin Tsongas Clinton Clinton Clinton
2000 Gore Gore Gore Gore Bush
2004 Kerry Kerry Edwards Kerry Bush
2008 Obama Clinton Obama Obama Obama

27. Source: NY Times PAGE 27

28. PAGE 28
S O U T H C A R O LIN A A N D N E VA DA – W H AT ’S AT S TA K E
South Carolina is an extremely important primary for Republicans, as it has correctly
determined the Republican nominee since 1980, with the exception of 2012.
Source: Election Central
South Carolina Primaries Nevada Caucuses
Republicans Democrats Republicans Democrats
When? Saturday,February 20th Saturday,February 27th Tuesday,February 23rd Saturday,February 20th
Number of Delegates 50 59 30 43
Voter Eligibility Open Primary Open Primary Closed Caucus Closed Caucus
Delegate Selection Winner-take-all Proportional Proportional Proportional
Key Component
Evangelicals;low-
propensity voter
mobilization
African-American voters Turn outin rural areas
Latino voters;turn outin
rural areas

29. PAGE 29
S U P E R T U E S DAY ( 3 / 1 ), A K A “ S E C ” P R I M ARY D AY
Super Tuesday: March 1st
NH à AK, CO, MA, MN, ND, VT
SC à AK, AL, AR, GA, OK, TN,
TX, VA, WY
Only
Republican
Both
Parties

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