10.28.15

1. O C T O B E R 2 0 1 5
Election 2016 – A Brief Overview
and Analysis

2. M O O D O F T H E C O U N T R Y

3. PAGE 3
O N LY O N E I N F O U R A M E R ICA NS F E E L T H E N AT I ON I S H E A DING IN
T H E R I G H T D I R E CTI ON
The percentage of
Americans saying the nation
is heading in the right
direction hasn’t topped 50%
in about a decade.
Source: Pollster.com Aggregate Data, as of October 26, 2015
RIGHT DIRECTION 27.2%
WRONG TRACK 64.2%

4. Source: ABC News / Washington Post Poll, October 15-18, 2015 PAGE 4
L A R G E PA R TI SAN D I V ID E O V E R P R E F ER ENCE F O R E X P ER IEN CE
O R F O R O U T S I DER
All else equal, wouldyou like the next president to be someone who has experience in how the political
system works, or someone from outside the existing political establishment?
76%
21%
39%
57%
Prefer someone with
experience
Prefer a political
outsider
Republicans
Democrats

5. Source: NBC News/ Wall Street Journal Survey, October 15-18, 2015 PAGE 5
A M E R IC ANS A R E S P L I T O N W H AT PA R TY C O N T ROLL ING T H E
W H I T E H O U S E W O U LD B E B E T T E R F O R T H E C O U NTRY
Democrat
41%
Neither a Republican
or Democrat/ Some
other party
5%
Makes no difference
9%
Not sure
5%
Republican
40% Do you think it would be better for the country to have a
Democrat or a Republican as the next president?

6. 2 0 1 6 – E L E C T IO N P R E V I E W – T H E P R E S I D E N CY :
R E P U B L I CA N N O M I N A T I ON

7. PAGE 7
S TA G E I S S E T F O R N E X T G O P D E B ATE
CNBC, 6pm / 8 p.m. ET, October 28 in Boulder, CO.

8. PAGE 8
T R U M P H A S B E E N L E A DI NG G O P R A C E
Source: NBC News / Wall Street Journal Survey, October 15-18, 2015
22%
14%
7%
8%
4%
9%
5%
9%
14%
5%
11% 13%
11% 10%
20%
22%
1%
19%
21%
25%
June July Sept Oct
2016 Republican Primary Preference
Among RepublicanandRepublicanleaning voters
Bush Cruz Rubio Carson Trump
Candidate Average
Donald Trump 32.5%
Ben Carson 22.6%
Marco Rubio 7.7%
Jeb Bush 7.4%
Ted Cruz 5.1%
Carly Fiorina 4.8%
Mike Huckabee 3.8%
John Kasich 2.8%
Rand Paul 2.6%
Chris Christie 2.4%
Lindsey Graham 1.2%
Bobby Jindal 0.7%
Rick Santorum 0.7%
George Pataki 0.4%
Jim Gilmore 0.0%
HuffPost Pollster Trend
as of October 28, 2015

9. Source: CBS/New York Times Poll, October 21-25, 2015 PAGE 9
B U T S O M E R E C EN T S I G NS O F # C A R SO NMENT UM A M O N G
R E P U BL ICA NS N AT I ONAL LY
7%
7%
8%
22%
26%
Carly Fiorina
Jeb Bush
Marco Rubio
Donald Trump
Ben Carson
*only showing
candidateswith
more than 5%
Which one of these candidates would you like to see theRepublicanParty
nominate for President in 2016?*Among Republican and Republican-leaning voters
Mind made up 28%
Too early 71%
Don’t know/NA 1%
Asked of people who picked a
candidate: Is your mind made up or
is it still too early to say for sure?

10. PAGE 10
A N D M O R E G O P V O T E RS C A N S E E T H E M SELV ES S U P P ORTI NG
C A R S ON O R R U B I O T H A N T R U MP
Source: NBC News/ Wall Street Journal Survey, October 15-18, 2015
50% 49%
69%
74%
74%
62% 63% 65%
32%
47% 47%
59%
31%
33%
61% 56%
75%
57%
55% 51%
June July September October
Carson Rubio Trump Fiorina Bush
Next, I’m going to mention
a number of people who
might seek the Republican
nomination for president in
2016. For each one, please
tell me, yes or no, whether
you could see yourself
supporting that person for
the Republican nomination
for president in 2016.
% could see self supporting

11. Source: ABC News / Washington Post Poll, October 15-18, 2015 PAGE 11
T H E M O R E R E P U BLI CANS H E A R A B O U T B E N C A R SO N T H E M O R E
T H E Y L I K E H I M ; O P P O SI TE E F F E CT F O R J E B B U S H
64%
52%
47%
41%
47%
41%
18%
29% 30%
33%
45%
47%
Ben Carson Marco Rubio Carly Fiorina Ted Cruz DonaldTrump Jeb Bush
The more you like him/her The less you like him/her
Regardless of who you may
support, would you say that the
more you hear about [CANDIDATE]
the more you like him/her, or the
more you hear about [CANDIDATE]
the less you like him/her?

12. Source: Historical Gallup Poll Data PAGE 12
R E P U BL ICA NS H AV E H I S T ORI CAL LY N O M INAT ED E A R LY F R O NT-
R U N N ERS
Republican trial-heat poll closest to October of year prior to election
Date First place for nomination
Second place for nomination
or nominee
October 2011 Mitt Romney (20%) Herman Cain (18%)
October 2007 Rudy Giuliani (32%) John McCain (16%)
October 1999 George W. Bush (60%) Elizabeth Dole (11%)
September 1995 Bob Dole (46%) Phil Gramm (10%)
October 1987 George Bush (41%) Bob Dole (24%)
November 1979 Ronald Reagan (41%) Howard Baker (18%)
October 1975 Gerald Ford (48%) Ronald Reagan (25%)
October 1967 Richard Nixon (42%) Nelson Rockefeller (15%)
October 1963 Barry Goldwater (45%) Nelson Rockefeller (23%)
October 1959 Richard Nixon (67%) Nelson Rockefeller (19%)

13. Source: ABC News / Washington Post Poll, October 15-18, 2015 PAGE 13
T R U M P L E A DS O N R E P U BL ICA N E X P E CTATI ONS T O W I N B O T H
T H E G O P N O M I NAT ION A N D H AV IN G T H E B E S T C H A NC E T O W I N
T H E G E N E R AL E L E CTI ON
42%
15%
12%
5%
43%
16%
13%
11%
4% 3%
Donald
Trump
Ben
Carson
Jeb Bush Marco
Rubio
Donald
Trump
Ben
Carson
Jeb Bush Marco
Rubio
Ted Cruz Carly
Fiorina
Mostlikely to win
GOP nomination
Bestchance to win
the generalelection
Regardless of who you
may support, which
candidate do you think
is most likely to win the
Republican nomination
for president? Thinking
about the candidates
who do you think [has
the best chance of
getting elected
president in November
2016]?

14. Source: ABC News / Washington Post Poll, October, 15-18, 2015 PAGE 14
T R U M P L E A DS O N A L M O S T A L L AT T R IBU TES; C A R SO N L E A DS
W I T H H O N ES TY A N D P E R S ONA LIT Y; B U S H H A S T H E E X P E RIE NCE
Strongest
leader
Best
chance
Best on
immigration
Closest
on issues
Understands
your
problems
Best
experience
Most honest
Best
personality
Trump 47% 43% 39% 32% 29% 23% 21% 19%
Carson 9% 16% 9% 19% 19% 8% 33% 24%
Fiorina 6% 3% 4% 6% 8% 3% 7% 10%
Bush 12% 13% 13% 11% 10% 31% 10% 15%
Rubio 11% 11% 15% 11% 13% 12% 10% 14%
Cruz 8% 4% 9% 8% 8% 8% 7% 5%
Thinking about six of thesecandidates – (Trump) (Carson) (Fiorina) (Bush) (Rubio) (Cruz) – who do you think is/has the [ATTRIBUTE]?

15. PAGE 15
C A R S ON L E A DS T R U MP I N A L L B U T O N E R E C E NT P O L L O U T O F
I O WA
19%
18%
27%
19%
20%
31%
32%
27%
28% 28%
Loras College
(Oct. 19-22)
Monmouth
(Oct. 22-25)
CBS/YouGov
(Oct. 15-22)
DMR/Bloomberg
(Oct. 16-19)
Quinnipiac
(Oct. 14-20)
Donald Trump Ben Carson
CARSON
+11
CARSON
+14
EVEN
CARSON
+9
CARSON
+8
Source: Loras College Poll, October 19-22, Monmouth Poll, October 22-25, CBS/YouGov Poll, October 15-22, Des Moines Register/Bloomberg Poll, October 16-19, Quinnipiac Poll, October 14-20

16. Source: YouGov/CBS Poll, October 15-22, 2015 PAGE 16
H O W E VER , T R U MP M A I N TAIN S H I S L E A D I N B O T H N E W
H A M P SH IRE A N D S O U T H C A R O LI NA
Candidate New Hampshire
Donald Trump 38%
Ben Carson 12%
Jeb Bush 8%
Carly Fiorina 7%
Marco Rubio 7%
Candidate South Carolina
Donald Trump 40%
Ben Carson 23%
Ted Cruz 8%
Marco Rubio 7%
Jeb Bush 6%

17. PAGE 17
T H E M O N E Y R A C E
Source: The Washington Post, courtesy of Federal Election Commission filings, reports by independent groups

18. 2 0 1 6 – E L E C T IO N P R E V I E W – T H E P R E S I D E N CY :
D E M O C R A T I C N O M I N A T I O N

19. PAGE 19
P O S T- DEBAT E, C L I N TON R E C EIV ES B I G G ES T B O O ST I N N U MBERS
A C R O SS VA R IOUS P O L LS
Source: Five Thirty Eight, October 2015
Change in candidate support, pre- to post-debate
POLLSTER Clinton Sanders
ABC/Washington Post +11 -4
CNN/ORC -1 +5
Emerson +15 -9
Monmouth +4 -5
Morning Consult +2 +2
NBC/WSJ +5 -5
Average +6.0 -2.7

20. PAGE 20Source: Huffpollster, October 2015
W I T H OUT B I D E N I N T H E R A C E , C L I N TON’ S L E A D O V E R S A N D ERS
G R O W S
With Biden Without Biden
POLLSTER Clinton Sanders Biden Clinton Sanders
ABC/Post 54% 23% 16% 64% 25%
Monmouth University 48% 21% 17% 57% 24%
NBC/WSJ 49% 29% 15% 58% 33%
CNN 45% 29% 18% 56% 33%
YouGov/ Economist 48% 23% 20% 59% 29%
CBS 46% 27% 16% 56% 32%
Average 48% 25% 58% 29%
Clinton-Sanders margin +23 +29

21. PAGE 21
T H E M O N E Y R A C E
Source: The Washington Post, courtesy of Federal Election Commission filings, reports by independent groups

22. PAGE 22
T H E P R E D I CTI ON M A R K ETS
Source: PredictWise prediction data are based on odds from the Betfair and PredictIt betting exchanges and markets, and aggregate polling data from HuffPost Pollster
6%
10%
17%
19%
34%
Ted Cruz
Ben Carson
Jeb Bush
Donald Trump
Marco Rubio
PredictWiseChance ofWinningRepublican Nomination
0%
13%
88%
Martin
O'Malley
Bernie
Sanders
Hillary
Clinton
PredictWiseChance ofWinningDemocratic Nomination
Only showing above5%

23. PAGE 23
B U T D O E S I T E V E N M AT T ER: A P L U R AL ITY O F A M E R ICA NS D O N ’ T
P L A N O N V O T I NG I N T H E P R I M ARI ES AT A L L
Vote in Democratic
Primary
31%
Waituntil the
generalelection
34%Do not plan to vote at all,
1%
Not sure
3%
Vote in Republican
Primary
31%
If there were a primary election in your
state, wouldyou vote in the Democratic
primary, the Republican primary, or would
you wait to vote in the general election?
Source: NBC News/ Wall Street Journal Survey, October 15-18, 2015

24. PAGE 24
48% 48%47% 46%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
JebBush
HillaryClinton
BenCarson
BenCarson
BenCarson
HillaryClinton
BernieSanders
HillaryClinton
Source: CNN / ORC Poll, October 14-17, 2015
45% 44%
50%
53%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
JebBush
HillaryClinton
BenCarson
BernieSanders
DonaldTrump
JoeBiden
DonaldTrump
JoeBiden
C A R S ON P E R FORM S B E T T ER T H A N T R U MP I N P O T E NTI AL H E A D-
T O - H EA D M AT CHUP S W I T H D E M O CRATI C C A N D IDATE S

25. PAGE 25
M O R E A M E RI CAN S E X P E CT C L I NTO N O V E R A N Y O T H E R
C A N D ID ATE T O W I N T H E P R E S I DENC Y I N N O V E MB ER 2 0 1 6
Source: ABC News/ Washington Post Poll, October 15-18, 2015
37%
48%
7%
7%
20%
37%
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60%
Republican mentions
Democratic mentions
Bernie Sanders
Ben Carson
Donald Trump
Hillary Clinton
[Open Ended] Who do you
expect to win the
presidency in November
2016?

26. PAGE 26
R E P U BL ICA NS M O R E L I K ELY T O B E E X T R E MELY/ VERY
E N T H US IAS TIC A B O U T T H E U P C OM ING E L E C TI ON
Source: CNN Poll, October 14-17, 2015
68%
18%
12%
58%
22% 21%
Extremely/Very enthusiastic Somewhat Enthusiastic Not too/Not at all enthusiastic
Republicans Democrats
How enthusiastic wouldyou say you are
about voting for president in next year’s
election – extremely enthusiastic,very
enthusiastic,somewhatenthusiastic,not
too enthusiastic,or not at all enthusiastic?

27. PAGE 27Source: 2016 Election Central, courtesy of Hamilton Place Strategies

28. PAGE 28
E A R LY 2 0 1 6 P R I MA RY & C A U C US C A L E NDA R
Note: All dates tentative and subject to change prior to 2016
Date State
Monday, February 1, 2016 Iowa (caucus)
Tuesday, February 9, 2016 New Hampshire (primary)
Saturday, February 20, 2016 South Carolina (primary)
Tuesday, February 23, 2016 Nevada (caucus)
Tuesday, March 1, 2016
Texas, Georgia, Tennessee,
Alabama,Arkansas
Tuesday, March 15, 2016 Florida (primary)
95 DAYS UNTIL IOWA CAUCUS

29. 1025 F Street NW, 9th Floor
Washington, DC 20004
121 East 24th Street, 10th Floor
New York, NY 10010
202.337.0808 | GPG.COM
GPG Research
The Glover Park Group is a leading strategic communications and government affairs
firm. GPG offers an integrated and complementary suite of services to plan, build and execute all
manner of communications tactics, campaigns and programs.
Our in-house research team is a data and insight-driven outfit. We employ cutting-edge research
methodologies, from digital analytics to quantitative and qualitative opinion research, to help our
clients understand where the conversation begins and, more importantly, how we can influence it.
For more information about this presentation
or to find out more about GPG’s research capabilities contact:
Jason Boxt (jboxt@gpg.com)