This document discusses data-driven early warning and action systems (EWS) and provides examples of their use and innovation. It notes that EWS have been shown to provide over a tenfold return on investment. Modern EWS use artificial intelligence like machine learning to predict multiple hazards objectively. Recent examples are described, including detecting desert locust breeding grounds through satellite data and drones to reduce pesticide use. EWS also use weather intelligence from satellites to predict extreme climate events like droughts months in advance. The document stresses that EWS require effective governance and cooperation between countries to enable early action in response to warnings.

1. Data-driven Early Warning and Action
Systems (EWS)
GLF 2022

2. EWS – motivation and innovation
GLF 2022 BY: DR ELENA LAZUTKAITE
• EWS are urgently needed owing to interconnected and cascading crises – the 4 Cs – Climate
change, Conflict, Covid-19 (Zoonoses) and Cost of living
• Recent evidence found that EWS provide more than a tenfold return on investment
• Predicting multiple hazards can be achieved through artificial intelligence (e.g., machine
learning) characterised by a high level of “digitalisation”, which can bring about objectivity in
decision-making
• TMG already in partnership with Intergovernmental Authority on Development (IGAD) for
EWS and Governance

3. GLF 2022 BY: DR ELENA LAZUTKAITE
EWS example:
DESERT LOCUST
UPSURGE
2019-2022
notable disaster driven
by climate change (UN
University)
• The Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) was in positive
phase, June-December in both 2018 and 2019
• In October 2019, the dipole reached its most
extreme positive level in 40 years
• Tropical cyclones caused heavy rainfall over the
‘Empty Quarter’ in Saudi Arabia. Desert lakes were
filled with vegetation – perfect breeding ground.

4. EWS innovation – example DESERT LOCUST
GLF 2022 BY: DR ELENA LAZUTKAITE
Greater frequency and
intensity of outbreaks
under climate change
(IPCC)
New pests and new
frontline countries
Weather intelligence, edaphic and vegetation surveillance,
(via satellites and ML processing of big data) to detect
Desert Locust breeding conditions
- Satellite -> Machine Learning for predict breeding grounds
- Multipurpose (sensory) drones to verify
- Robotics and other modern management tools to eradicate
breeding grounds
- Highly toxic pesticides made redundant
Image recognition and object classification for other plant
pests and pathogens

5. GLF 2022 BY: DR ELENA LAZUTKAITE
Droughts, storms and floods
intensifying
at current rate of warming of
1.2°C witnessing
unprecedented weather
events, what about 2°C?
Weather intelligence and interfaces between the
atmosphere, ocean circulation and land (via
satellites and ML processing of big data) to detect:
- Indian Ocean Dipole anomalies
- La Niña
- El Niño
- Southwesterly monsoon (timing, distribution and
intensity)
- ML can generate robust predictions of drought from one
to 12 months ahead
EWS innovation – example EXTREME CLIMATIC EVENTS

6. GLF 2022 BY: DR ELENA LAZUTKAITE
Programmed
Preparedness
for anticipatory and
early action
EWS – from early warning to EARLY ACTION
Preparedness needs to be tailored to (e.g., agriculture):
• Each transboundary threat and its predicted dimensions:
intensity, longevity and the number at risk [BMZ - Global Food
and Nutrition Security Dashboard (gafs.info)]
• Capacities inc. knowledge gaps of extensionists and ultimately
farmers and pastoralists
• The agro-ecologies of where impacts could be greatest
• Emergency humanitarian relief in parallel with defining
transformation pathways to instil greater resilience in Food
Systems and Rural Livelihoods
Much research is needed as well as dialogue with
stakeholders for buying into Programmed Preparedness –
new TMG-IGAD workstream?

7. EWS – finally, and most importantly…
GLF 2022 BY: DR ELENA LAZUTKAITE
Governance – takeaway
EWS is redundant if there is
no early action. Action
cannot take place without
effective governance
EWS for transboundary threats and crises
require governance mechanisms
• Countries need to collaborate, coordinate and to act
jointly and rapidly (e.g., Rapid Response Forum). Recent
desert locust upsurge is a prime example
• TMG is exploring adaptive and responsive governance
models with IGAD
• Intergovernmental set-up of IGAD and their Climate
Prediction and Applications Centre (ICPAC) provides a
solid foundation for the governance of EWS especially
preparedness and action

8. THANK YOU!