This document summarizes the renewable energy potential and cost-competitiveness in Southeast Europe. It finds that with medium cost of capital, there is potential for 111.5 GW of additional renewable capacity by 2030, including 98.2 GW of wind and 5.2 GW of solar PV. This exceeds the 8.2 GW gap to achieve national renewable targets for 2020. Lowering financing costs could increase the potential to over 240 GW of renewable capacity by 2030 dominated by wind and solar. Realizing this potential requires addressing barriers like improving market access, support schemes, grid integration and access to finance.

1. 1
Contracting Parties of the Energy Community:
• Albania
• Bosnia and Herzegovina
• Former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia
• Kosovo
• Moldova
• Montenegro
• Serbia
• Ukraine
Members of the European Union:
• Bulgaria
• Croatia
• Romania
• Slovenia
Geographic scope of the study

2. • Assessment of the overall renewable electricity potential in the region
• Identification of cost-competitive RE potential – focus on wind & solar
PV
• Input to decision making in the upcoming process of undertaking new
commitments and developing long-term strategies for renewables.
2
Objectives
Cost-competitive potential
• LCOE within the ranges of the fossil-fuel supply options.
• Level of cost-competitive potential today, 2030 and 2050
• Sensitivity analysis for cost of capital (WACC)

3. • Energy Community 2020 Renewable
Energy targets
• Alignment with 2030 Energy and
Climate framework of the EU
• Increase in electricity demand (as per
the National Renewable Energy
Action Plans) and ongoing discussion
on the required power capacity
additions in the region
• Importance of hydropower
• Sharp cost reduction in solar PV and
wind technologies
3
Context
Shares of Renewable Power Capacity in SEE
Total: 36 GW (2015)
Solar: 3.5 GW
9%
Wind: 4.9 GW
14%
Hydro: 27.3 GW
76%
Biomass: 0.3 GW
1%

4. Resource assessment
Solar PV and Wind suitability analysis
4
Suitable locations for Wind investments in SEE
Suitable locations for Solar PV investments in SEE
Biomass, Hydropower, Geothermal energy
National energy strategies, NREAPs,
Academic studies – validated by the energy
experts from the respective countries
Assess this map at: http://irena.masdar.ac.ae?map=2411

5. IRENA Renewable Costing Alliance
IRENA Renewable Cost Database
based on data from over
9,000 utility-scale RE projects
5
Cost analysis
Dramatic decline in Solar PV & Wind costs
Significant cost reductions since 2009:
• Solar PV module costs by 80%
• Wind turbine prices by a third
Potential for further reduction by 2025:
• Solar PV - 59%
• Onshore wind - 26%
• Offshore wind - 35%

6. 2016
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
500
550
600
0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 180 200 220 240 260
WindPotential(GW)
LCOE Wind (EUR/MWh)
Low cost of capital
scenario
Medium cost of capital
scenario
High cost of capital
scenario
LCOE for CCGT
(excluding CO2)
LCOE for CCGT
(including CO2)
2030
SEE cost-competitive Wind
potential
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
500
550
600
0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 180 200 220 240 260
WindPotential(GW)
LCOE Wind (EUR/MWh)

7. 7
SEE cost-competitive Solar PV
potential
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 180 200 220 240 260 280
PVpotential(GW)
LCOE PV (EUR/MWh)
Low cost of capital
scenario
Medium cost of
capital scenario
High cost of capital
scenario
LCOE for CCGT
(excluding CO2)
LCOE for CCGT
(including CO2)
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160
PVpotential(GW)
LCOE PV (EUR/MWh)
2016 2030

8. 8.2 GW Gap to achieve cumulative RE deployment target for 2020 (based on NREAPs)
8
NREAP targets vs.
Cost-competitive additional potential
Based on: Medium cost of capital scenario
Solar PV: 5.2
GW
4%
Wind: 98.2
GW
77%
Hydropower:
18.1 GW
14%
Biomass: 4.7
GW
4%
Geothermal
0.7 GW
1%
5.2 GW
98.2 GW111.5 GW
405.3 GW
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
PV Wind
2030
2016
127 GW of Renewable Energy today 620 GW of Wind and Solar PV by 2030

9.  Eliminate administrative
barriers and improve market
access
 Create attractive and
consistent RE support schemes
 Improve PPA structure
 Address grid integration
challenges
 Enhance skills and capacities
 Facilitate access to finance
Impact of cost of capital
Cumulative additional cost-competitive
renewable RE potential for SEE - 2016
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
200
220
240
PV Wind Hydropower Biomass Geothermal
Potential[GW]
Renewable energy techologies
Low cost of capital scenario
Medium cost of capital
scenario
High cost of capital scenario

10. Thank you
10
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