1. 1
The Human Health Co-Benefits of Fossil
Fuel Emissions Reductions for Climate
Change Mitigation
George D. Thurston, ScD.
Professor
NYU School of Medicine
2. If We Take Climate Change Mitigation
Steps, Air Quality Co-Benefits Also Come
Human
Health
Air
Quality
Policies
Climate
Change
Policies
• Many policies to
avoid/mitigate
climate change
would improve air
quality right away.
•Many policies to
improve air quality
would lower GHG
emissions.
3. Relationship
between
Climate
Change and
Air Quality
Policies
Source: Ancillary human
health benefits of
improved air quality
resulting from climate
change mitigation.
Bell ML, Davis DL,
Cifuentes LA, Krupnick
AJ, Morgenstern RD,
Thurston GD. Environ
Health.
2008 Jul 31;7:41. Review.
4. Greenhouse Gases
and Air Pollution Health Effects
• The major sources of PM and O3 precursors
are also the major sources greenhouse
gases.
• Reducing GHG emissions from fossil fuel
sources will also yield ancillary public health
co-benefits, as O3 and PM are also reduced.
• The Ancillary Benefits to the countries that
reduce air pollution emissions will include
reductions in the entire “pyramid” of air
pollution health effects, such as reductions in
air pollution-related deaths and hospital
admissions.
4
11. Why Combustion Particles
Are Among the Most Toxic
• Humans are now exposed to fossil fuel
combustion particles (e.g., from power
plants) that the lung did not evolve to
deal with.
• These particles have different sizes,
different physiochemical characteristics,
and deposit in different parts of the lung
than more “natural” particles (e.g., wind
blown soil).
13. Health Benefits Can be Assigned Dollar
Valuations to do Cost-Benefit Analyses
Outcome Monetary Valuations (1994 C$)
low central high
Premature Mortality $2,400,000 $4,000,000 $7,900,000
Chronic Respiratory Disease Cases: Adult $175,000 $291,000 $466,000
Respiratory hospital admission $3,300 $6,500 $9,800
Cardiac hospital admission $4,200 $8,300 $12,500
Emergency room visits $300 $600 $900
Lower respiratory disease cases (< 18 yrs
old)
$180 $360 $540
Restricted activity day (> 18 yrs old) $35 $75 $110
Asthma symptom day $18 $49 $81
Acute respiratory symptom day $7 $14 $27
13
14. The Problem of Climate Change Action and
PM Air Pollution (Thurston, Nature CC, 2013)
• The problems with climate change as a policy issue are:
– the most severe potential effects of climate change are decades
away, and society tends to discount things in the future.
– most of the climate benefits of mitigation are not localized, so that
those investing in mitigation receive little more climate benefit than
those who do nothing
• In contrast, the air quality health benefits (and their
associated monetary valuations) of reducing emissions of
air pollutants that occur simultaneously with the CO2
emissions (for example, PM air pollution) are more
immediate and local, and occur primarily in the regions
and nations that take these steps to mitigate CO2 (Fig.1)
15. PM Cleanup Co-Benefits of Climate Mitigation Can
Be Large if Fossil Fuel Combustion Reduced
15
Valuation of Health Co-Benefits (Red & Blue)
Exceed the Costs of Mitigation (Green)
17. Air Pollution Improvements From EPA Clean Power
Plant Climate Program (Driscoll et al, 2015)
17
BAU
Power
Plant
Program
PM2.5
Ozone
18. Health Co-Benefits From EPA Clean Power Plant
Climate Program (Driscoll et al, 2015)
18
Business
as Usual
Clean
Power
Plant
Program
19. • While damage from Climate Change has begun, the greatest
effects of climate change are distant in time (which the public
and politicians tend to discount).
• Taking action to reduce Climate Change CO2 emissions will
also lower other air pollutants.
• These other pollutant reductions provide significant
immediate and local human health co-benefits and dollar
valuations, especially if it reduces coal burning.
• Human health co-benefits justify immediate cleanup steps
more effectively than the argument for avoiding climate
change occurring much later in time.
Implications
19
