1. PERU| Positive economic forecasts1
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Peru continues to be one of South America’s best performing economies, with3
the Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean’s (ECLAC)4
December 2016 report estimating GDP growth of 3.9% this year, the highest5
figure in South America. For 2017, it predicts growth of 4%. The rate of 3.9%6
for December is, however, a decrease on earlier figures, with Peru’s Instituto7
Nacional de Estadística e Informática (INEI) reporting rates of 4.4% for 2016’s8
third quarter, showing a contraction of 0.5%. INEI reported that the rate of9
inflation stood at 3.35% at the end of November, a fall from October’s rate of10
3.41% but a rise from September’s 3.13%. Interest rates have risen over the past11
two months, with the current rate at 4.33% compared to November’s 4.29% and12
October’s 4.25%, according to the Bank of Peru. There was mixed news13
regarding growth in industry and services. On 15 December, INEI reported that14
from in the year leading up to October 2016, production had grown 4.22% in the15
country, and INEI predicts that this rate will slow to 2.12% in 2017. Industries16
posting positive growth figures include fishing, at 3.43%, and mining, which17
grew 15.58%. However, manufacturing fell 3.31% and construction 16.51%. The18
latter’s sharp decline is attributed to a fall in investment in infrastructure of19
32.02% over the course of the year and a contraction in the production of cement20
of 11.17%.21
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On 18 November, Managing Director of the International Monetary Fund (IMF)23
Christine Lagarde outlined some of the challenges facing Peru. She stated that24
the country needed to rapidly invest in its education system help a growing25
young population. She also stressed the need for increased investment in areas26
such as transport and communications, and for the inclusion of women in the27
economy, highlighting the success of the Haku Wiñay initiative helping poor28
women set up their own businesses. From 28 November-4 December, Lima’s29
Chamber of Commerce held its annual survey of executives, and found that 85%30
think their business will grow in 2017, the highest in 16 years. The Chamber’s31
president Mario Mongilardi stated that business confidence “had never been so32
high” in Peru.33
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