Presentation made at the PMDays Bucharest 2012 from the PMI Romania Chapter

1. Want a better estimate ?
Alexandre Cuva
Coach Agile, CSM, CSPO, LTM3 HSPTP
PMDay Bucharest - 2012

2. Alexandre Cuva
Email : Organizational Coaching
alexandre.cuva@altran.co (Management 3.0, Scrum)
m Team Coaching
Twitter: @cuvaalex (Scrum, XP, Kanban)
Blog: http://agile- Technical Coaching
alexcuva.blogspot.com/ (TDD, BDD, C#, Java, Groovy)
Phone: +41 78 715 8309 Agile Training
(Management 3.0, Agile, Scrum, XP)

4. Observation
The complexity is growing fast

5. Observation
The current standard management system, does not provide
satisfaction to all.

6. My Actual Mission
Help companies to make this sentence True for them
“Organizations can become learning networks of
individuals creating value, and the role of leaders
should include the stewardship of the living rather
than the management of the machine.”
http://www.stoosnetwork.org

7. How to have an Accurate Estimation ?

8. Common Scenario
How long do you
think this project
I think in 6
will take ? we need
month we
to finish in 3
will be done
month.
Didn’t hear
me I say it
should be
done in 3
month !!!

9. Problem of estimation
From this picture
Estimate the size of
my submarine ?

10. 3 points estimation
The 3 point estimate 1. Take the worst
belongs to the time scenario
management knowledge 2. Take the best scenario
area. It can also be used 3. Take the median
during Cost Estimation.
A three point estimate is a
better estimate, compared E = (O+M+L)/3
to a single point estimate.
Single point estimate
simply gives you a single
number scenario

11. Things that influence Estimates
Project Size Culture
Tools
Type of Software
Team Cohesion
Personnel Factors Management
Programming Languages …
Complexity
Constraints
Turnover
Experience

12. Are estimate important ?
Scheduling
Defining
Iteration
Estimation
Prioritization
Break Work

13. What is estimate?
Estimate Target Commitment
Source : Want a better estimates ? Stop Estimating by Joel Semeniuk

14. Estimation Challenges
Provides an 95% Confident estimation for:
How old I am ?
How many bugs will have on the next project ?
What is the distance between the earth and the
moon ?
What is the % surface of water on Earth ?
Question: What make you are confident at
95%

15. Important Laws of Nature
Parkinson’s Law
The amount of time which one has to perform a task is the amount of time
it will take to complete the task.
The Student Syndrome
Start as late as possible
Exponential Error Aggregation
The more detailed – the further from truth you will be
Source : Want a better estimates ? Stop Estimating by Joel Semeniuk

16. 5 law to Ponder from Joel Semeniuk
ESTIMATION LAW
Source : Want a better estimates ? Stop Estimating by Joel Semeniuk

17. Estimate Law #1
Don’t estimate if you
can measure

18. Estimate Law #2
Estimate in a way human are good at !
Compare instead estimate unit

19. Estimate Law #3
Measure things that are Measurable
Eg Start-Finish Time
versus
Actual versus Planned Effort

20. Estimate Law #4
To mitigate the risk of
Vision incorrect effort
Roadmap
estimations we reduce
the precision of our
Release estimates according
Iteration
to how much we
know about what
we’re estimating.
Day
This in turn helps us
to be more accurate.

21. Cone of Uncertainty

22. Estimation Law #5
Use the different Metrics for different Estimates

23. GOOD PRACTICE TO START

24. Simple Practices that Work
Use Sizing for Requirements
Measure Velocity
Decompose into Task Just in Time in
Hours
Calibrate and Recalibrate
Use cycle Time to Predict Expected
Duration

25. Use Sizing for Requirement
Example : Ski trail difficulty
Numeric Values
½, 1, 2, 3, 5, 8, 13, 20, 40, 50, 100
Green Trail : ½, 1, 2, 3 (16)
Blue Trail : 5, 8 (8)
Red Trail : 13, 20 (8)
Black Trail : 50, 100 (8)

26. Measure Velocity
The amount of product backlog that a team can handle in one single
sprint
Quantified in story points
Story point is an arbitrary measure to quantify the required effort to
finish an user story. Namely, how hard the story is. Loosely based on
Fibonacci series.
Business Solutions

27. Size Stories
Story should fit in one Iteration
Story too complex should be split on multiple simple one

28. Fixed Cycle Time
Remember Law #1 : Measure instead guessing
Measure the time to resolve

29. Summary
Estimation Law
1. Don’t estimate if you can measure
2. Compare instead estimate unit
3. Measure things that are Measurable
4. Reduce the precision of our estimates according to how much we know
5. Use the different Metrics for different Estimates
Good Practices
• Sizing for requirement
• Hours for small task
• Velocity
• Size Story
• Fixed cycle time

30. Resources

32. Alexandre Cuva
Email : Organizational Coaching
alexandre.cuva@altran.co (Management 3.0, Scrum)
m Team Coaching
Twitter: @cuvaalex (Scrum, XP, Kanban)
Blog: http://agile- Technical Coaching
alexcuva.blogspot.com/ (TDD, BDD, C#, Java, Groovy)
Phone: +41 78 715 8309 Agile Training
(Management 3.0, Agile, Scrum, XP)