THE OBSTACLES THAT IMPEDE THE DEVELOPMENT OF BRAZIL IN THE CONTEMPORARY ERA A...
PEORIA Project Report 4: Kasich Rising
1. KASICH RISING
(AND OTHER HIGHLIGHTS OF THE PRESIDENTIAL DEBATE CONVERSATION)
ASSOCIATE PROFESSOR MICHAEL CORNFIELD,
ASSOCIATE PROFESSOR LARA BROWN, AND DATA SCIENTIST JAMIE CHANDLER
RELEASE DATE: NOVEMBER 9, 2015
2. Using Zignal Labs’ platform, GSPM tracks
the mainstream and social media echoes of
the and
their .
4. Candidates
(Descending order)
Total Mentions
Sept. 21 – Nov. 1
All Current
Candidates
(share of voice, in %)
Republicans Only
(share of voice, in
%)
Donald Trump 9,096,900 35.6 54.0
Hillary Clinton 4,660,264 18.2 --
Bernie Sanders 3,891,131 15.2 --
Ben Carson 1,913,895 7.5 11.4
Ted Cruz 1,555,251 6.1 9.2
Jeb Bush 1,299,325 5.1 7.7
Marco Rubio 917,575 3.6 5.4
John Kasich 409,393 1.6 2.4
Mike Huckabee 332,727 1.3 2.0
Chris Christie 327,396 1.3 1.9
Carly Fiorina 266,054 1.0 1.6
Rand Paul 263,416 1.0 1.6
Martin O’Malley 156,255 0.6 --
Lindsey Graham 142,727 0.6 0.8
Bobby Jindal 137,574 0.5 0.8
Rick Santorum 131,420 0.5 0.8
George Pataki 43,045 0.2 0.3
CONVERSATION LEADERS
Note: Omitted candidates who dropped from the nomination contests (i.e., Perry, Walker, Webb, and Chafee).
6. CLINTON & TRUMP?
54%
11%
9%
8%
5%
2%
2%
2%
2% 2%1%1%1%0%
Share of Republican Voice (%)
September 21 - November 1, 2015
Trump Carson Cruz Bush Rubio Kasich Huckabee
Christie Fiorina Paul Graham Jindal Santorum Pataki
46%
39%
2%
4%
2%
7%
Share of Democratic Voice (%)
September 21 - November 1, 2015
Clinton Sanders O'Malley Webb Chafee Biden*
Note: In this and many of the following analyses, we added Biden into the Democratic
field because his potential candidacy was a much discussed possibility.
7. DEMOCRATIC TIME SERIES
Note: Omitted candidates who dropped from the nomination contests (i.e., Perry, Walker, Webb, and Chafee).
9. DEMOCRATIC NET
SENTIMENT
-75
-50
-25
0
25
50
75
Clinton Sanders O'Malley Webb Chafee Biden*
Net Sentiment of Democratic Candidates Mentions (%)
Pre-Debate Net Sentiment (9/21-10/12) Post-Debate Net Sentiment (10/13-11/1)
Note: Net sentiment is measured as the percentage of positive mentions minus the percentage of negative
mentions (similar to “net approval” or “net favorability”). Still, NLP does not capture sentiment all that
indiscriminately. As such, sarcasm (“that’s sick”), disappointment (“that sucks”), or even descriptive facts
(“drops out”) may be included in the mentions count. Net sentiment should, therefore, be seen as a directional
and relational indicator rather than an absolute measure.
10. REPUBLICAN TIME SERIES
Note: Omitted candidates who dropped from the nomination contests (i.e., Perry, Walker, Webb, and Chafee).
13. DEMOCRATS: WHO IS
TALKING ABOUT WHOM?
Candidates Mainstream
Media
Sept. 21 –
Nov. 1
Social
Media
Sept. 21
– Nov. 1
Hillary Clinton 511,865 4,148,399
Bernie Sanders 249,741 3,641,490
Martin O’Malley 71,707 84,548
Jim Webb 54,482 365,885
Lincoln Chafee 47,796 183,466
Joe Biden* 212,240 520,748
0
750,000
1,500,000
2,250,000
3,000,000
3,750,000
4,500,000
Clinton Sanders O'Malley Webb Chafee Biden*
TotalMentions
Total Media Mentions
September 21 - November 1, 2015
Mainstream Media Social Media
14. DEMOCRATS: WHO IS
TALKING ABOUT WHOM?
45%
22%
6%
5%
4%
18%
Mainstream Media SOV (%)
September 21 - November 1, 2015
Clinton Sanders O'Malley Webb Chafee Biden*
46%
41%
1%
4%
2%
6%
Social Media SOV (%)
September 21 - November 1, 2015
Clinton Sanders O'Malley Webb Chafee Biden*
15. DEMOCRATS: WHO IS
TALKING ABOUT WHOM?
0
250,000
500,000
750,000
1,000,000
1,250,000
1,500,000
Clinton Sanders O'Malley Webb Chafee Biden*
TotalMentions
Media Mentions Before Debate
September 21 - October 12, 2015
Mainstream Media Social Media
0
500,000
1,000,000
1,500,000
2,000,000
2,500,000
3,000,000
Clinton Sanders O'Malley Webb Chafee Biden*
TotalMentions
Media Mentions During/After Debate
October 13 - November 1, 2015
Mainstream Media Social Media
16. REPUBLICANS: WHO IS
TALKING ABOUT WHOM?
Candidates Mainstream
Media
Sept. 21 –
Nov. 1
Social
Media
Sept. 21 –
Nov. 1
Donald Trump 502,686 8,594,221
Ben Carson 224,731 1,689,170
Jeb Bush 198,198 1,101,138
Marco Rubio 149,926 767,662
Ted Cruz 108,506 1,446,749
Carly Fiorina 90,061 175,993
Chris Christie 78,952 248,453
John Kasich 59,578 349,813
Rand Paul 58,700 204,722
Mike Huckabee 43,637 289,093
Lindsey Graham 38,843 35,511
Bobby Jindal 17,005 33,440
Rick Santorum 31,779 20,689
George Pataki 6,858 13,594
0
250,000
500,000
750,000
1,000,000
1,250,000
1,500,000
1,750,000
TotalMentions
Total Media Mentions
September 21 - November 1, 2015
Mainstream Media Social Media
Trump: Off the chart again .
Undercard
Debaters
17. REPUBLICANS: WHO IS
TALKING ABOUT WHOM?
33%
15%
13%
10%
7%
6%
5%
4%
4% 3%
Mainstream Media SOV (%)
September 21 - November 1, 2015
Trump Carson Bush Rubio Cruz
Fiorina Christie Kasich Paul Huckabee
58%
11%
8%
5%
10%
1%2%2%1%2%
Social Media SOV (%)
September 21 - November 1, 2015
Trump Carson Bush Rubio Cruz
Fiorina Christie Kasich Paul Huckabee
18. REPUBLICANS: WHO IS
TALKING ABOUT WHOM?
0
250,000
500,000
750,000
1,000,000
1,250,000
1,500,000
TotalMentions
Media Mentions Before Debate
September 21 - October 27, 2015
Mainstream Media Social Media
0
100,000
200,000
300,000
400,000
500,000
TotalMentions
Media Mentions During/After Debate
October 28 - November 1, 2015
Mainstream Media Social Media
Undercard
Debaters
Undercard
Debaters
“Off the
Charts”
Mainstream
Media
Sept. 21 –
Oct. 27
Social
Media
Sept. 21 –
Oct. 27
Mainstrea
m Media
Oct. 28 –
Nov. 1
Social
Media
Oct. 28 –
Nov. 1
Donald Trump 435,134 7,633,758 67,552 960,463
19. THE WEEK THAT WAS FOR
THE DEMOCRATS
52%
28%
14%
1%3% 2%
Democratic Share of Voice (%)
October 19 - 25, 2015
Clinton Sanders Biden O'Malley Webb Chafee
20. THE WEEK THAT WAS FOR
THE DEMOCRATS
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
Website Shares Top Campaign Tweet (RT)
Social Media During the Week
October 19 - October 25, 2015
Clinton Sanders
21. CLINTON’S TOP 3 TWEETS
DURING HEARINGS
1,687 Retweets 659Retweets 445 Retweets
22. TOP GOP RESPONSES TO
BENGHAZI HEARINGS
#1
#3
Jeb Bush
92 Retweets
#1
#1
Donald Trump
1,489 Retweets
#1
#5
Chris Christie
22 Retweets
#1
#2
Mike Huckabee
130 Retweets
#1
#4
Rand Paul
70 Retweets
23. PART TWO
Social media activity by the
candidates and their
campaigns during the
conservational events of the
period.
24. TRUMP ON TOP?
ECHO CONVERSION RATES
Candidates
(in descending order)
Echo Conversion
(total number of
website shares/total
number of social
media mentions,
measured in % for
Sept.21-Nov.1, 2015)
Cruz 13.8
Kasich 8.5
Fiorina 5.3
Clinton 1.6
Paul 1.5
Sanders 1.0
O'Malley 1.0
Huckabee 0.8
Rubio 0.8
Carson 0.6
Bush 0.5
Christie 0.08
Trump 0.05
0
500,000
1,000,000
1,500,000
2,000,000
2,500,000
3,000,000
3,500,000
4,000,000
4,500,000
Social Media Mentions & Website Shares
September 21 - November 1, 2015
Social Media Mentions Website Shares
Again, Trump is “off the chart.” His social
media mentions were over 8.5M, but his
website shares were 4,517 – he comes in
last on this measure.
25. DEMOCRATIC CANDIDATES
SOCIAL MEDIA ACTIVITY
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
14,000
16,000
Clinton Sanders O'Malley Webb Chafee
Social Media Before Debate
September 21 - October 12, 2015
WebsiteShares TopCampaign Tweet (RTs)
0
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
60,000
Clinton Sanders O'Malley Webb Chafee
Social Media During/Post Debate
October 13 - November 1, 2015
Website Shares Top Campaign Tweet (RTs)
26. CNN DEBATE: DEMOCRATS
TOP RESPONSES (10/13-10/14)
#1
Bernie Sanders
4,570 Retweets
#1
#2
Hillary Clinton
3,109 Retweets
#1
#3
Martin O’Malley
136 Retweets
#4
Jim Webb
69 Retweets
#5
Lincoln Chafee
69 Retweets
28. TOP 3 RETWEETED GOP
RESPONSES (10/13-10/14)
#2
Donald
Trump
5,759
Retweets
#1
Donald
Trump
17,378
Retweets
#3
Donald
Trump
4,699
Retweets
29. REPUBLICAN CANDIDATES
SOCIAL MEDIA ACTIVITY
0
40,000
80,000
120,000
160,000
200,000
Social Media Before Debate
September 21 - October 27, 2015
Website Shares Top Campaign Tweet (RTs)
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
14,000
Social Media During/Post Debate
October 28 - November 1, 2015
Website Shares Top Campaign Tweet (RTs)
34. QUESTIONS?
Graduate School of Political Management @GSPMGWU
John Brandt
Media Relations
johnbrandt@gwu.edu
Michael Cornfield Lara Brown
Associate Professor Associate Professor
corn@gwu.edu larambrown@gwu.edu
Zignal Labs @ZignalLabs
Pete Eskew D.J. Waldow
Head of East Coast Sales Director of Marketing
peskew@zignallabs.com djwaldow@zignallabs.com
Hinweis der Redaktion
Words can affect elections as well as reflect pre-election trends -- to the extent words circulate society and penetrate public consciousness (e.g., 47%).
Today, whenever words travel online, they can be converted into data. We can measure words circulation: by volume, over time, across news and social media channels, as connected to other words, even (roughly) according to the sentiment (positive/negative) attached to them.
Importantly, candidates say many words and campaigns are built around messages. This project is about understanding how those words and messages “play in Peoria.”
The PEORIA Project follows the candidates and their campaign messages, measuring the public echoes that surface in all types of media.
The primary research question is: what’s being said about the candidates and their campaigns?
Being in the undercard debate leads to substantially fewer mentions – both in mainstream and social media
As we discussed in our last report, we’re interested in similarities and differences between mainstream and social media voices. While it is too early to understand which way the arrow goes (do the news media cause social, vice versa, or are they independent conversations) we are interested in keeping track of the differences.
Our questions remain: Will one group identify the eventual party nominee earlier than the other? Who are the darlings in each category?
But for note, what is clear is that The Donald dominated social media, whereas, Bush captured a large portion of the mainstream media. Interestingly, Donald Trump was covered only slightly more than Jeb Bush by mainstream media. Also, the total numbers between the two sets of media types are very different – about 11.1M of the mentions of these 12 candidates are on social media platforms (Twitter, Facebook, Videos—YouTube, Vimeo, etc., and Blogs), whereas the other 1.1M are on news media (Broadcast TV, LexisNexis, News Sites). Hence, even if the news media are being more responsible in their candidate coverage – they are getting “drown out” by the conversations happening on social media. The volume is hugely different.
News of Biden not running garnered more mentions in a shorter period than the Benghazi hearing, but Clinton’s overall share of voice was larger this week than during either the pre- or post- debate periods. In short, the candidate who suffered “lost media oxygen” during the week was Bernie Sanders (down about 10
Of note – only HRC and Bernie had any social activity to speak of (all others were under 500 shares/RTs.
During the Benghazi hearing, Katy Perry was especially helpful to HRC – as was her campaign. Many of the most popular Tweets were from those who stood by and supported her.
Note – Echo conversion rate is the total # of website shares for the candidate’s website divided by the total number of social media mentions for the candidate. Ted Cruz continues to perform strongly on this engagement-seeking metric. Kasich and Fiorina impressed, while Clinton and Sanders underperformed given their otherwise strong digital engagement records.
The difference in scales is extraordinary (debates = social media events). These are both essentially two week periods, yet prior to the debate the most website shares HRC received were about 15K, but during and after the debate, her numbers reached over 50K. These charts show a great deal of social media activity on the part of Clinton and Sanders, which makes the low echo conversion rates that much more puzzling – but then again, understandable given the volume both are reaching (it’s hard to get more than 1% of nearly 4M people to engage).
The top retweets for both Sanders and O’Malley concerned criminal justice, raising the possibility of involvement by #blacklivesmatter.
Mike Huckabee enjoyed success live-trolling the Democratic debate.
All Trump! The trolling of the Democratic debate attracted far more retweeting than the Democrats’ trumpeting of the debate.
Huge variation on the GOP side: Christie no website post-debate shares – Trump had some, but still far, far fewer than Cruz. Rubio did well post-debate, but was non-existent before. Fiorina/Paul small # of RTs. Fiorina did better on website shares, especially post-debate. Cruz lots of website shares. Kasich appears to be “punching above” his weight-class in terms of website shares – though he was stronger before the debate (perhaps because of his comments on the trail about Trump and Carson) than during/after the debate.
Kasich’s word cloud and top hashtags show that he is using his social media strategically by targeting early primary states and promoting endorsements (the words “Illinois and Christine refer to an endorsement the governor received from the state senate Republican Leader Christine Radogno).
Even though the Ted Cruz line featured here was a stand-out dramatic moment in the debate, three comments by other candidates attracted more retweets.
Also, Jeb Bush tweeting a picture of his personalized cowboy boots is somewhat like his fantasy football moment, he believes he is connecting (being authentic and perhaps, funny), but it seems awfully forced.
This is one metric where Kasich fared poorly, in contrast to others.
Clinton’s comments outperformed Sanders in retweeting –and again the stand-out dramatic moment, when Sanders declared enough about Clinton’s email, did not register impressively on this metric.
