Use of Catastrophe Modelling Data to Help Earthquake Risk Assessment for Developers and Policy Makers, Alexandros GEORGIADIS

1. 6th International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2016 ‘Integrative Risk Management – Towards Resilient Cities‘ • 28 Aug – 1 Sept 2016 • Davos • Switzerland www.grforum.org Catastrophe modelling and disaster risk assessment for developers and policy makers Alexandros Georgiadis, Aon Benfield Impact Forecasting, UK Chris Ewing, Aon Benfield Impact Forecasting, UK Stuart Fraser, GFDRR Innovation Lab, US

2. 6th International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2016 ‘Integrative Risk Management – Towards Resilient Cities‘ • 28 Aug – 1 Sept 2016 • Davos • Switzerland www.grforum.org Agenda • Natural Catastrophe Risk • Catastrophe Modelling in insurance • Catastrophe Modelling beyond insurance

4. 6th International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2016 ‘Integrative Risk Management – Towards Resilient Cities‘ • 28 Aug – 1 Sept 2016 • Davos • Switzerland www.grforum.org Catastrophe Modelling • Tools that analyse the financial implications of natural catastrophes. US HU US EQ EU WS JP TY JP EQEU EQ EU FL US FL Source: Earth Institute of Columbia University

5. 6th International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2016 ‘Integrative Risk Management – Towards Resilient Cities‘ • 28 Aug – 1 Sept 2016 • Davos • Switzerland www.grforum.org Catastrophe Modelling • Tools that analyse the financial implications of natural catastrophes. Source: Earth Institute of Columbia University

7. 6th International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2016 ‘Integrative Risk Management – Towards Resilient Cities‘ • 28 Aug – 1 Sept 2016 • Davos • Switzerland www.grforum.org Anatomy of a Catastrophe Model LOSS Insured loss calculation Damage Calculation VULNERABILITY HAZARD Event Generation Intensity Calculation EXPOSURE Asset Characterisation Policy Conditions Source: PERILS

8. 6th International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2016 ‘Integrative Risk Management – Towards Resilient Cities‘ • 28 Aug – 1 Sept 2016 • Davos • Switzerland www.grforum.org Cat Model in insurance • Tools used to calculate: – the impact (monetary loss) – the probability (frequency) for a set level of loss to occur. • View of risk • Benefits – Portfolio optimization. – Risk appetite and capital management. – Reinsurance purchase decisions. Quantify risk in old & new territories Effective accumulation control Reinsurance cover design New insurance products Selective underwriting Understand your exposure

9. 6th International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2016 ‘Integrative Risk Management – Towards Resilient Cities‘ • 28 Aug – 1 Sept 2016 • Davos • Switzerland www.grforum.org The (re)insurance market Properties Insurance Reinsurance • Risk appetite and capital management • Reinsurance purchase decisions • Portfolio optimization • Portfolio optimization Catastrophe Modelling • Premium calculation Catastrophe Modelling

11. 6th International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2016 ‘Integrative Risk Management – Towards Resilient Cities‘ • 28 Aug – 1 Sept 2016 • Davos • Switzerland www.grforum.org Challenge • Many developing countries – Limited hazard/exposure/vulnerability data and model coverage to quantify risk and make risk-informed decisions. – Lack established risk financing mechanisms – funding post-disaster activities may be unplanned and not optimal • Post-disaster costs impacting the national budget may cause: – Liquidity gaps. – Long-term government debt and increased poverty for families.

12. 6th International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2016 ‘Integrative Risk Management – Towards Resilient Cities‘ • 28 Aug – 1 Sept 2016 • Davos • Switzerland www.grforum.org Catastrophe Modelling beyond insurance • Expand model coverage and data availability • Impacts beyond monetary loss – i.e., government assets, infrastructure, poverty, GDP growth, population affected... • Integrated risk management using catastrophe models: Open Data Limited money / resource to fund data and modelling Quantifying Nat Cat Risk What-if scenarios & Cost/Benefit analysis Project Planning Resilience studies poverty - disaster synergy Mitigation & preparedness Risk assessment Identify risk hotspots Focus efforts to reduce risks

13. 6th International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2016 ‘Integrative Risk Management – Towards Resilient Cities‘ • 28 Aug – 1 Sept 2016 • Davos • Switzerland www.grforum.org Case Study: Using EQ hazard data for disaster risk reduction • GFDRR integrated Impact Forecasting EQ hazard data within their Think Hazard! global multi- hazard screening tool. • ThinkHazard.org simplifies hazard data into high, medium or low classes (based on frequency of damage occurring in that location). • Recommends first-step actions on how to reduce risk and provides links to relevant data / reports. • Helps DRR professionals to plan projects, and communities to prepare. PGA

14. 6th International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2016 ‘Integrative Risk Management – Towards Resilient Cities‘ • 28 Aug – 1 Sept 2016 • Davos • Switzerland www.grforum.org Contacts Alexandros Georgiadis Impact Forecasting London +44 (0)207 086 3297 alexandros.georgiadis@aonbenfield.com Chris Ewing Impact Forecasting London +44 (0)207 522 8305 chris.ewing@aonbenfield.com Stuart Fraser GFDRR Innovation Lab +44 (0)7455 048 044 sfraser@worldbank.org

15. 6th International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2016 ‘Integrative Risk Management – Towards Resilient Cities‘ • 28 Aug – 1 Sept 2016 • Davos • Switzerland www.grforum.org Natural catastrophe losses (1980-2015) • United States – Economic Loss: $1.65 trillion 34% – Insured Loss: $740 billion 63% • Americas – Economic Loss: $405 billion 8% – Insured Loss: $50 billion 4% • EMEA – Economic Loss: $835 billion 17% – Insured Loss: $195 billion 16% • APAC – Economic Loss: $1.96 trillion 41% – Insured Loss: $196 billion 17% Source: Aon Benfield Catastrophe Insight

Use of Catastrophe Modelling Data to Help Earthquake Risk Assessment for Developers and Policy Makers, Alexandros GEORGIADIS

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Use of Catastrophe Modelling Data to Help Earthquake Risk Assessment for Developers and Policy Makers, Alexandros GEORGIADIS

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