Gopalakrishna BHAT, Umamaheshwaran RAJASEKAR, Anup KARANTH TARU Leading Edge, India, Republic of

1. Tale of two cities: Developing
city resilience strategies
under climate change
scenarios for Indore and
Surat, India
Dr Umamaheshwaran Rajasekar
G K Bhat
Anup Karanth (Presenting Author)
Aug 29, 2012
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2. ACCCRN Overview
Asian Cities Climate Change Resilience
Network (ACCCRN) is a network of ten cities
in India, Indonesia, Thailand & Vietnam,
experimenting with a range of activities that
will collectively improve the ability of the
cities to withstand, to prepare for, and to recover
from current and future impacts of climate
change that are difficult to predict.
ACCCRN represents a unique initiative to
develop, test and demonstrate practical
strategies for responding to the impacts of Profile
climate change on urban areas. 7 year initiative launched in 2008
Investing in 10 core cities in 4 Asian
countries and expanding to 30+ cities
in 6 countries
Impact
The resilience and capacity of a growing number of developing countries/Asian cities in
relation to current and future climate risks is enhanced, and through this work the lives of poor
and vulnerable men and women are improved.
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3. ACCCRN - Work flow & progress timeline
ACCCRN Phase III
ACCCRN Phase I
Mar 2009
SETTING
Nov 2008 UP OF CAC; Sept 2009 Apr 2010 May 2010 2010 - 2014
DISCUSSION PILOT • Urban
Apr 2008 ASSESSING PRESENTAION PILOT
PROJECTS; Resilience
MEETINGS, CITY OF VA PROJECT
IDENTIFICAT- Projects
CONSULTAT- ACCCRN PHASE
VULNERABI FINDINGS, II PROPOSAL • Replication,
City ION OF
IONS: Work COMMISSIO- DISCUSSION,
Opportunity -LITY & RESILIENCE UCCR
Phase & NING SECTOR SCENARIO
Assessment RISKS; OPTIONS, Strategy
Approach STUDIES PLANNING • Sustainabilit
Report INCLUDING CITY CRS
y
CC
IMPACTS
Framework linking dialogue, engagement, action and sustainability of initiatives
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4. Indore - City regional setting
IPUR
A
/UDA
K OT
TO
A
RA
KOT
TO
AG
TO 3
AM NH AL
TO RA
TL HOP
TO B
TO MAXI
TO RA
TL
AH AM UJJAIN
AM
AD
BA
D
7
BADNAGAR
SH 2
SONKACHA AL
HOP
TO B
SANWER
BADNAWAR
80
DEWAS KMS
60
3
NH
KMS
59
80
20
NH
KMS
DEPALPUR KMS 40
40 KMS TO ITARASI
60 KMS
KMS NH 59 A
INDORE BAGALI
59
DHAR NH
3
NH
BARWAH
DHAMNOD MAHESHWAR
Municipal Limits: 130.17 sqkm BA
I
A
UM
W
M
DA
A
TO
Planning area : 504.87 sqkm
W
AN
DA
KH
AN
TO
KH
Location: 22 .43′N ,76 .42′E
TO
Average altitude of 550m amsl.
Climate: Moderately extreme climate, TOWNS
INDUSTRIAL HUB
Population: 2.16 million (Provisional population) RESERVE FOREST
Main industries: Engineering, textiles units, Food processing (Soya, RAILWAY LINE
sunflower and related), Pharmaceuticals, Iron & steel, MAJOR ROADS
Leather, Automobile components, Industrial chemicals, COMMAND
CIRCLE
Cement, Soaps & detergents etc.
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5. Surat - Regional setting & Growth
Before 1963
1963
1970
1975
1986
1994
2006
 Economic capital of Gujarat State
 62% population growth in 1991-2001
 Now ranks the 9th largest city in the country.
 Home to Textile and Diamond industry, Traditional Zari and Zardosi
work
Area in
• 42% of world's total rough diamond cutting & polishing with 50 out
Year Population of 125 sightholders across the world.
Sq. Km
1951 8.18 223,182 • 70% of nation's total rough diamond cutting & polishing
1961 8.18 288,026 • 65% of nation's total diamond exports
1971 33.85 471,656 • 28% of nation's total manmade fiber production
1981 55.56 776,583 • 40% of nation's total manmade fabric production
1991 111.16 1,498,817 • 18% of nation's total manmade fiber exports
2001 112.27 2,433,785  More than 0.6 million power looms and 350 process houses
2006 326.51 2,877,241  Spin-offs from proximity to Hazira with leading industry such as ONGC,
2011 326.51 ~ 4.5 million L&T, Reliance, ESSAR, NTPC & Shell (168 sq km/ 65 sq mi)
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6. Tale of Two Cities
INDORE SURAT
• Commercial capital of the state • Home to Textile and Diamond
• Developing and aspiring city Industries
challenged by resources • Strong small entrepreneur /
constraints labor driven economy
• Indore and nearby region more • Strong social cohesion, Internal
urbanized and industrialized resilience high
(Pithampur, Dewas, Mhow); • Proactive and efficient
Industry outside the city administration with clear vision,
• Infrastructure growth unable to supported by industry/trade
match urban growth • Well managed city
• City referred to as Shab-e- • Industry within the city
Malwa
• Flood risk high, 2006 floods
• Water scarcity may re-emerge estimated loss as `22,000Cr
• Health risk (vector borne (USD 4.5billion)
diseases)
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8. Climate Prognosis
CVCC – Likely projections
TEMPERATURE CHANGES - Future mean monthly temperature ranges : 2021-2100
The monthly average min
temperature is expected to
increase by about 2oC by
2030’s to about 3-4oC by
2080’s.
Maximum increase is
expected during the winters
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9. Risk & Impacts
FLOOD PRONETAPI ELEVATION COASTAL ZONE
SLUMS &FLOOD RISK ZONES
KHADI INCIDENCES OF MALARIA (INDORE)
LOW RIVER FLOOD RISK ZONES
Source: TARU ANALYSIS, 2009, 2010
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10. Surat Flood risk and Impacts
2,600,000 140.0
Population(2001) affected
2,400,000 120.0
2,200,000 100.0
Area (sqkm)
2,000,000
80.0
1,800,000
60.0
1,600,000
1,400,000 40.0
1,200,000 20.0
1,000,000 0.0
4 5 6 7 8 9
Discharge (X0.1 million cusecs) Affected popln
Affected Area
• Tapi river could discharge 1.5 m cusec safely before 1970’s
• City growth on both sides, embankments, river bed
siltation, bridges, weir has reduced the safe carrying capacity
• At present, even 0.4 m cusec discharge causes floods
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11. GEOPSY based Urban Vulnerability Analysis
TARU ANALYSIS, 2009, 2010
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12. GEOPSY based Urban Vulnerability Analysis (2)
TARU ANALYSIS, 2009, 2010
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13. GEOPSY based Urban Vulnerability Analysis (3)
WATER USAGE PATTERN IN DIFFERENT HOUSING CATEGORIES
VULNERABILITY AND CAPACITY ASSESSMENT ACROSS SETTLEMENTS
TARU ANALYSIS, 2009, 2010
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14. Sector Studies
(Development of Sector Impact Matrices / Adaptation Matrices / Resilience Options)
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15. Urban Growth & Socio-Economic Scenarios
STORYLINE: Year 2030
TARU ANALYSIS, 2009, 2010
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16. Urban Services Monitoring System (UrSMS)
Urban Service Monitoring System (UrSMS) project was
developed under the Asian Cities Climate Resilience Network
(ACCCRN) for improving the monitoring and grievance
redressal for health, water supply, sewerage and solid waste
services.
Developed with active partnership between SMC and TARU.
• Type of engagement
– Involvement of key line departments from Surat Municipal Corporation
(SMC), Citizens
– Mobile phone based structured text messaging system
– A structured reporting & Web-GIS interface provided to aid decision makers.
• Scaling up efforts
– As part of urban reforms, the service level benchmarking and monitoring has
been initiated for improving accountability and to monitor improvements in
services
– UrSMS takes the idea further by involving the citizens in monitoring the service
levels through simple indicators.
– This system can be upgraded to be used during emergencies such as floods.
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17. Urban Services Monitoring System (UrSMS)
The Urban Services Monitoring System
is designed on an efficient platform.
The system has two main interfaces:
1.The mobile interface for sending
and receiving structured data
via SMS and
2. PC interface with Internet
Mapping Service for visualizing
the information as charts, reports
& maps.
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18. City Resilience Strategy
• The CRS also summarizes the findings of the
activities under Phase 2. It includes a series of
recommendations which will enable the City
stakeholders to take proactive measures to prepare
for climate change
• Preparation of the strategy engaged local
government, business community, and citizens in a
dialogue to determine adaptation actions that can
minimize the negative effects on
economy, environment, health and well-being
• Resilience strategy strives to minimize the
negative impact of CVCC, and take advantage of
potential opportunities
• CRS proposes a series of actions to prepare the
city for climate change including:
– Short term actions beginning in 2010-11 that will
help prevent and/or minimize the potential impacts
of CVCC
– A series of action medium/long term actions that
will guide the development of a
comprehensive, long term strategy to adapt to
climate change / build resilience
• Download CRS:
India Urban Portal www.indiaurbanportal.in
ACCCRN http://acccrn.org/
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20. ACCCRN Phase III City Projects
• $18 M reserved for implementation
• 22 projects funded and underway, 8 in India
• Most projects address multiple sectors in integrated way.
• Projects focus on soft as well as hard interventions, with a
strong focus on social resilience.
• Co-financing, leveraging and scaling opportunities are
developed for every project
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21. ACCCRN City Level Projects
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22. City level projects in Indore and Surat
Indore: Conjunctive Water Management in Indore based on demand
focused end use
Surat: End-to-end early warning system for Ukai Dam and Local
Floods (implemented by the SCCT)
Indore: Strengthening vector-borne disease surveillance and
response systems
Indore/Surat: Promoting cool roof and passive ventilation concepts
Indore: Urban lake restoration for emergency water provision
Surat: Urban Health and Climate Resilience Center (UHCRC)
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23. ACCCRN Partners in India
Demand: increasing demand for Supply: provide policy and finance
UCCR action in India Country incentives for UCCR in India
Coordination &
leadership: Taru
City projects: Taru, GEAG, ISET
Regulatory Environment: TERI
Expansion to new Cities:
ICLEI, TERI, GEAG Policy Landscape- SHM and JNNURM:
TERI, Irade, NIUA
Building Capacity & Networks: NIUA
City Competitiveness Analysis: ICREIR
Building Awareness of Vulnerability: IRADe
Donor Engagement: RF, Rosie
Engaging Private Sector : Intellecap
Sjogren, TARU
Engage Cities on Competitiveness :
ICREIR
Regional Partners
KM & Network support: Arup
M&E: Verulam
Documentation Support: IIED, ISET
Communications Support: APCO
Technical Assistance: ISET, ARUP, ADPC
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24. Developing Urban Climate Change Resilience
• Urban areas continue to grow and offers a huge
opportunity for mainstreaming climate
informed development
• Cities are where the interplay – Urbanization /
CVCC related hazard risks / Vulnerability
lead to consequences. All 3 elements should be
addressed while developing resilience strategies
• Citizen/Stakeholder/Local Government
engagement & ownership is a must
• Anticipate a positive future. Use tools and
conduct exercises such as Visioning, Scenario
Planning, Shared Learning Dialogues
• Demonstrate through pilots / action
• Social cohesion is pre-requisite for Resilience
• Redundancy in urban systems enhances
resilience
• Use of technology must be explored
• Empower stakeholders and engage local
institutions/experts
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25. Natural Resource Management (NRM) and Rural Livelihood
Rural Water Supply and Sanitation
Urban Development
Disaster Management and Climate Change
Energy
Scenario Planning and Strategy Development
◘ Social Development
◘ Monitoring & Evaluation
Bridging Science, Institutions and Society
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