7. Longitude of the Magnitude of the
Location of the
Scenario Depth probable latitude of the probable scenario
probable scenario
number (Km) earthquakes earthquakes (UTM) earthquakes
earthquakes
(UTM) (Richter Scale)
1 Kuh e Sefid fault 5 688023.86 3792973.11 7.5
Biseston - Tagh
2 10 695756.14 3809634.44 7
bostan Fault
Kermanshah,
3 20 727611.30 3824827 7.2
West of Sahneh
8. Area exposed to No. of building units
No. of No. of peoples are
No. of Jetfire (m2), are exposed to
No. of No. of Ignitio exposed to
Leakage with 37 explosion,
Scenario Breaks n Jetfire (m2), for
s KW/m2 heat with a pressure wave of
s 100% death risk
emissions 3 Psig
1 16.91 4.2 20.6 110117.087 366.31 1362.75
2 2.99 0.72 2.22 8340.13 46.627 192.92
3 4.02 1 1.04 4178.245 26.97 90.06
9. frequency percentage Histogram
diagram of the number of The frequency percentage
leakages for scenario 1 Histogram diagram of the
(Eskandari, 2011) number of leakages for
scenario 3 (Eskandari, 2011)
The frequency percentage Histogram
diagram of the area exposed to Jetfire
(m2),
With 37 KW/m2 heat emissions for
scenario 1 (Eskandari, 2011)
10. Affected area
No. of peoples are No. of building units are
N0. of exposed to
N0. of exposed to exposed to
Igni Jetfire (m2),
Scenar Title Jetfire (m2), explosion, with a
tion with 37
io for 100% pressure wave of 3
s KW/m2 heat
death risk Psig
emissions
Normal condition 21 110171 366 1363
1
Number for conditions without the sparks due to
2 8195 70 107
vehicle ignition and power network
Normal condition 3 8340 47 193
2
Number for conditions without the sparks due to
0 732 8 21
vehicle ignition and power network
Normal condition 1 4178 27 90
3
The conditions without the sparks due to vehicle
ignition and power network
0 382 3 8
11. Conclusion
Scenario 1 (An earthquake with a magnitude of 7.5 on the active fault in
the vicinity of Kermanshah, of 17.5 Km Length).
17 leaks, 4 breaks and 21 ignitions; caused by seismic damage to fuel
pipelines.
In the case of fire around the fuel pipeline of Kermanshah, it will affect an
area of 0.1 Km2, with an intensity of 37 KW/m2, and will cause damage to
the process components and units, and instant death for people.
In the case of explosion around the fuel pipeline of Kermanshah, a
pressure wave of 3 Psig will affect an area of 1.5 Km2, inflicting
irreparable damage to main components.
Around 3,666 people will be exposed to 100% death risk, caused by post
earthquake fires of damaged pipelines.
Around 1,362 building units will be irreparably damaged by the explosion
wave of damaged pipelines.
12. Conclusion
Scenario 2 (An earthquake with a magnitude of 7.5 on the active fault
in the vicinity of Kermanshah, of 17.5 Km Length).
3 leaks, 1 breaks and 3 ignitions; caused by seismic damage to fuel
pipelines.
In the case of fire around the fuel pipeline of Kermanshah, it will affect
an area of 8300 m2, with an intensity of 37 KW/m2, and will cause
damage to the process components and units, and instant death for
people.
In the case of explosion around the fuel pipeline of Kermanshah, a
pressure wave of 3 Psig will affect an area of 0.73 Km2, inflicting
irreparable damage to main components.
Around 47 people will be exposed to 100% death risk, caused by post
earthquake fires of damaged pipelines.
Around 193 building units will be irreparably damaged by the explosion
wave of damaged pipelines.
13. Conclusion
Scenario 3 (An earthquake with a magnitude of 7.2 in the location of a
historic earthquake):
4 leaks, 1 break and 1 ignition; caused by seismic damage to fuel pipelines.
In the case of Jetfire around the fuel pipeline of Kermanshah, it will affect an
area of 4,000 m2, with an intensity of 37 KW/m2, and will cause damage to
process components and units, and instant death for people.
In the case of explosion around the fuel pipeline of Kermanshah, a pressure
wave of 3 Psig will affect an area of 62,000 m2, inflicting irreparable damage
to main components.
Around 27 people will be exposed to 100% death risk, caused by post
earthquake fires of damaged pipelines.
Around 90 building units will be irreparably damaged by the explosion wave
of damaged pipelines.