The Codex of Business Writing Software for Real-World Solutions 2.pptx
Climate impacts on food and farming
1. Integrated modelling of climate
impacts on food and farming at
regional to supranational scales
Session 212
2. Schedule
16:40 Banse et al.: MACSUR
17:00 Dono et al.: Economic & uncertainty
17:20 Gutierrez et al.: Climate & grain prices
17:40 Podhora et al.: Science & stakeholders
18:00 Brouwer (cancelled after Brazil meeting)
3. A European network of crop, livestock and
trade modelling — activities for assessing
impacts of climate change on food security
M. Banse1, M. Köchy1, R. Tiffin2
1 ThünenInstitute, Braunschweig, DE
2 University of Reading, UK
4. Challenges
• Change in climate
— CO2, drought (temp. ×
precip.),
extremes, spatial and temporal
correlation
• Growing world population
— increasing food demand
• Increasing prosperity
— change in lifestyle, more meat
5. FACCE MACSUR
Modelling European Agriculture with
Climate Change for Food Security
• “Knowledge Hub” initiated by 17
European countries + Israel
— within the FACCE Joint Programming Initiative
• started 1 June, 2012; runs 3 yrs
6. Project questions
• Will there be enough food in
the future?
• What’s the effect of climate
change on food security?
• What’s the contribution of
Europe to global food security?
• How can the uncertainty of
model projections be reduced?
MA K A A Y E
RTN LS
7. MACSUR’s aims
• bolster European capacity
in responding to the challenges of
global change for agriculture and food
security
• assist countries outside Europe
in their endeavors towards sustainable
agriculture and food security in the
face of climate change
9. Inventories of models
B PE L G
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IM AI ICS CA Jm E-B IC CS
• 6 grassland models
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• 86 crop models rs ers ers ers ers ers ers ers ers ers ers ers IC
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AC ICS DE
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• 26 economic models D D D D
O O O O IE IOM RI O
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EM EM EM EM GP OB AP M SM M M EM
M M M M A C AR PA E O S
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10. Different scales ~ different models
• point or plot models: crops, grassland
• farm-level models, diverse approaches
— farm investment models, land allocation
• regional and national models
— country as one farm
• international and global models
— international trade and policies,
expected production and prices
12. Integration and scaling
• ensemble simulations
— benchmarking
— estimate of model uncertainty
• several regional foci
• linking of models via on-demand
coupled output/input
• integration for stakeholders,“tool box”
13. MACSUR int’l cooperation
Sharing of scenarios, MACSUR emphasizes
protocols, and data • crop rotations
• integration across themes
— AgMIP
• micro and macro levels
— AgTrials • European diversity in soil,
— FoodSecure climate, and systems.
— AnimalChange • knowledge exchange &
— MultiSward collaboration
• training of integrative
— CCAFS
modellers
14. MACSUR Mission
• improve and integrate models
of crop and livestock production, farms,
and national & international agri-food
markets l i nk ed
m odel s
• demonstrate the integration
of these models tools for selected farming
systems and regions
• provide hands-on training
to young and experienced researchers in
integrative modeling
15. European contribution to
global food security
• develop methods for linking models
• develop training for (young) scientists
• assess contribution of crop production
to global food supply
