6th
International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2016
‘Integrative Risk Management – Towards Resilient Cities‘ • 28 Aug – 1 Sept 2016 • Davos • Switzerland
www.grforum.org
Implications of cascading effects
for the EU Floods Directive
Michael Nones , Universita’ di Bologna, Italy
Gianluca Pescaroli, University College London, UK
Full paper: Nones,M. & Pescaroli, G. (2016) Implications of
cascading effects for the EU Floods Directive, International Journal of
River Basin Management, 14:2, 195-204

6th
International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2016
‘Integrative Risk Management – Towards Resilient Cities‘ • 28 Aug – 1 Sept 2016 • Davos • Switzerland
www.grforum.org
This paper has a strange story…
Tidal flooding
Since 1982, the Thames Barrier, and asso
defences, have protected London from ti
surges. The Mayor, and some Assembly
Members, have called for the operation o
Barrier to be reviewed in the light of the
number of closures required in the winte
2013/14.
The Thames Barrier normally allows the tide, river flow
shipping to pass, but can be raised to keep out a tidal su
Committee heard that the Barrier will need to cope with
sea levels, caused by a combination of factors, including
• the very gradual lowering of the ground in southern E
due to long-term geological shifts,
• the transfer of water to the sea from melting glaciers
caps, and
• the expansion of existing sea water as it warms.
The estimated likely rise is up to 90cm in the remainder
century, with a “worst-case” estimate of 2.7m.
The Thames Estuary 2100 (TE2100) plan sets out how Lo
tidal defences would need upgrading over the remainde
century, including ultimately the upgrading or replacem
“In early December 2013 we had
probably one of the highest tides and
tidal surges in 60 years on the east
coast, which, had it not been for the
Environment Co
FL
RI
LO
Su
of

6th
International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2016
‘Integrative Risk Management – Towards Resilient Cities‘ • 28 Aug – 1 Sept 2016 • Davos • Switzerland
www.grforum.org
Hypothesis and key questions
 Is there a legislative gap
that needs to be
addressed?
 HP:The implementation
process of the FD should
include a clear agenda on
cascading effects at cross-
spatial and cross-temporal
scales.
 Method: cross-disciplinary
review of state of art and
comparison of case studies

6th
International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2016
‘Integrative Risk Management – Towards Resilient Cities‘ • 28 Aug – 1 Sept 2016 • Davos • Switzerland
www.grforum.org
Going beyond the “toppling
dominoes” metaphor
 High complexity: networks,
and multi-dimensionality.
 Non - linear progression and
amplification
 Critical infrastructure, cross-
scale and secondary
emergencies.
 Chain effects vs. Escalation.
  Check out our work later today at 1730 and tomorrow
morning

6th
International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2016
‘Integrative Risk Management – Towards Resilient Cities‘ • 28 Aug – 1 Sept 2016 • Davos • Switzerland
www.grforum.org
Assessment and management of flood risk
 FD since 2007, Flood Hazards
and Risk maps (2013),
creation of risk management
plans with consequences for
Health, Environment, Heritage,
Economy (2015)
 Difference of implementations
 Difference between NATECH
and CI, direct effects vs
indirect effects.
 Need of consistency among
procedures, targets, long term
and cross-scale

6th
International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2016
‘Integrative Risk Management – Towards Resilient Cities‘ • 28 Aug – 1 Sept 2016 • Davos • Switzerland
www.grforum.org
Venice Lagoon and Spree River: Ecological cascade
Venice: Contaminants modify
adaptation process and
increase the complexity of
crisis (Holling 2001 , Galaz et
al.2011)
Spree: ecological,
hydromorphological and
chemico-physical quality
elements  Slow
morphological response,
long time return.
Interconnected risk, compound events (climate change) but
also the interaction with vulnerabilities
Spree_Forest_in_Spring_1.jpg(550×413)

6th
International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2016
‘Integrative Risk Management – Towards Resilient Cities‘ • 28 Aug – 1 Sept 2016 • Davos • Switzerland
www.grforum.org
Dresden: long-term economic and social impact
 2002 floods, 50% of areas
settled, but not prevented
 Short term: negative
impact on industry
 Medium term: positive
impact due to
reconstruction resources
and flood recovery
programme
 Long term: limited regional
growth and negative effect
and loss of trust

6th
International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2016
‘Integrative Risk Management – Towards Resilient Cities‘ • 28 Aug – 1 Sept 2016 • Davos • Switzerland
www.grforum.org
United Kingdom and Parma: Critical Infrastructure
However, in line with the FD, they still
included just CI representing
technological hazards overlapping
different layers

6th
International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2016
‘Integrative Risk Management – Towards Resilient Cities‘ • 28 Aug – 1 Sept 2016 • Davos • Switzerland
www.grforum.org
Cascading are an open challenge for the EU flood
directive
 The assessment long-term
impacts barely includes
social damages
 Spatial and temporal scales
limited to triggers, do not
relate with the possible
disruption of CI.
 Integration of standards and
reasonable worst-case
scenarios.

6th
International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2016
‘Integrative Risk Management – Towards Resilient Cities‘ • 28 Aug – 1 Sept 2016 • Davos • Switzerland
www.grforum.org
Limitations and work in progress
 Scientific limitations
and availability of data
for risk scenario
 Spatial scales can be
difficult.
 Role of technological -
driven cascades and
escalation paths 
coming soon on Flood
Risk

6th
International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2016
‘Integrative Risk Management – Towards Resilient Cities‘ • 28 Aug – 1 Sept 2016 • Davos • Switzerland
www.grforum.org
Thanks for listening!
www.ucl.ac.uk/rdr/cascading