The document discusses atmospheric determinants of health risks and customized early warning systems. It begins with an overview of biometeorology and how atmospheric conditions can threaten human health. Global early warning systems based on indices like the Discomfort Index are described, but have limitations due to spatial variability. The document proposes developing customized early warning systems using new technologies like GPS and GIS to provide personalized weather-related health risk assessments and services to users. This would allow early warning systems to be implemented at an individual level based on biometeorological profiles and detailed meteorological forecasting.

1. Atmospheric determinants of
health risks and customized early
5th International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2014
‘Integrative Risk Management - The role of science, technology & practice‘ • 24-28 August 2014 • Davos • Switzerland
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warning systems
FERNANDEZ DE ARROYABE, Pablo
University of Cantabria, Spain
Vice-president International Society of
Biometeorology (ISB)

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INDEX
• 1 - BIOMETEOROLOGY (ISB)
• 2 - ATMOSPHERIC-RELATED HEALTH RISKS
• 2.1 Atmosphere as a threat
• 2.2 Strategies to keep alive
• 3 – GLOBAL EARLY WARNING SYSTEMS (EWS)
• 3.1 EWS based on DOA Index
• 3.2 EWS based on MC Index
• 4 - CUSTOMIZED EARLY WARNING SYSTEMS
• 4.1 Biometeorological profiles
• 4.2 Spatial component and new ICTs
• 5 - CONCLUSIONS

3. Biometeorology is an interdisciplinary science studying the
interactions between atmospheric processes and living organisms - plants,
animals and humans.
The ISB was founded on August 1956 with the aim of bringing together
scientists from around the world who were working in the field of
5th International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2014
‘Integrative Risk Management - The role of science, technology & practice‘ • 24-28 August 2014 • Davos • Switzerland
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Biometeorology to exchange information and ideas

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2.1 – Atmosphere as a threat
WEATHER
CONCEPTS
CLIMATE

5. 5th International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2014
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CLIMATE CHANGE
Modelling & Projections
BIG UNCERTAINTIES
EXTREM
EVENTS
Frequency and Intensity
------------------------------
RISK 1
NEW
ENVIRONMENTS
Emerging diseases
-----------------------------
RISK 2
WEATHER
VARIABILITY
Forecasting
LOW UNCERTAINTIES
ANOMALOUS
VARIABILITY
but NOT Extreme
------------------------------------
RISK 3
2.1 – Atmosphere as a threat

6. 1.150
950
5th International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2014
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2.1 – Atmosphere as a threat
METEOROLOGICAL HOW DO WE PERCIVE THREATS?
VARIABLES
MORTALIDAD EN LA CAPV: AJUSTE POLINOMICO
PERIODO 1986-2006
y = 0,0084x2 - 3,4835x + 1263,6
R2 = 0,8663
750
1 31 61 91 121 151 181 211 241 271 301 331 361
DIAS JULIANOS
NUMERO DE FALLECIMIENTOS

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2.1 – Atmosphere as a threat

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2.1 – Atmosphere as a threat

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2.1 – Atmosphere as a threat
1. Gil Romea I, Moreno Mirallas MJ. Lesiones por frío. Arch Cir Gen Dig, 2000 Sep 5.
2. Jehle D, Moscati R. The incidente of spontaneous subarachnoid hemorrhage with change in barometric pressure. Am J EmergMed 1994 Jan; 12 (1): 90-1.
3. Landers AT, Narotam PK. The effect of changes in barometric pressure on the risk of rupture of intracranial aneurysms. Br J Neurosurgery 1997 Jun; 11(3): 191-5.

10. 5th International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2014
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2.1 – Atmosphere as a threat

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2.1 – Atmosphere as a threat

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2.1 – Atmosphere as a threat

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2.1 – Atmosphere as a threat

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2.2 Biometeorological concept of health
Aptitude of human beings to conciliate their vital functions with climatic and
meteorological variability and change, without compromising people´s well-being.
(Fdez-Arróyabe, 2012)
Atmospheric change
STRESS
People start different strategies
to get over the negative stress
and preserve HEALTH
------------------
Human being is
constantly suffering
HEALTH CRISIS

15. STRATEGIES TO PRESERVE HEALTH = RESILIENCE
5th International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2014
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2.2 Biometeorological concept of health
• Thermoregulation, as a process associated to the hypothalamus functions and to
homeostatic processes that affect human body at a microbiological level and takes places in short
periods of time.
• Acclimatization, as a group of compensative changes that occur in the organism due to
multiple natural deviations of our environment because of seasonality or geographical reasons. It is a
gradual answered, in a short/medium period of time, that starts when one person is continuously
exposed to a new environmental context.
• Adaptation as a biological procedure, understood as the result of a natural selection process
that takes place in a long period of time in order to increase the survival changes of species.
• Adaptation as a cultural, infrastructural and technological process (Burton et al. 2009). It is
here where the development and complexity of social systems represents a new challenge for the
scientific study of the interactions between natural and artificial atmospheric conditions and humans
health.
• Migration Avoiding the impact

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BIO-MET
PROFILE
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2 - Atmospheric-related health risks
PLACE ON
THE EARTH
METEORO-SENSITIVITY
HAZARD
EXPOSURE
VULNERABILITY
RESILIANCE
ATMOSPHERIC
VARIABLES

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3.1 EWS based on DOA Index
DOA INDEX

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3.1 EWS based on DOA Index

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3.1 EWS based on DOA Index
2007, November 17th to 20th, Bilbao

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3.2 INFLUENZA EWS based on MC Index
SPANISH CLIMATIC REGIONS SPANISH INFLUENZA RATES

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3.2 INFLUENZA EWS based on MC Index
USING DIFFERENT SYNOPTIC
CLASSIFICATIONS AND
OTHER DEFINED CATALOGS
INCREASING THE FREQUENCY OF
DAILY WEATHER TYPE TO EVERY
6 HOURS
WORKING BY CLIMATIC REGIONS
APPLYING DIFERENT DELAYS
FROM 2 TO 7 DAYS

22. Iberian Peninsula 2001-02 Iberian Peninsula 2004-05
5th International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2014
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3.2 INFLUENZA EWS based on MC Index

23. 3 - EARLY WARNING SYSTEMS (PROBLEMS)
5th International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2014
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1. GLOBAL APPROACH BASED ON GLOBAL DATA
2. SPATIAL VARIABILITY OF METEOROLOGICAL DATA
3. VULNERABILITY IS NOT DEFINED AT PERSONAL LEVEL
4. EXPOUSURE IS DEPENDENT ON WHERE PEOPLE ARE
GEOGRAPHIC LOCATION IS REQUIERED

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4 - CUSTOMIZED WARNING SYSTEMS
GPS
GIS
NEW PERSONALIZED WEATHER-RELATED
HEALTH RISK SERVICES

25. 4 - CUSTOMIZED WARNING SYSTEMS
5th International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2014
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WATER SCARCITY
ATMOSPHERIC
HAZARDS
HEALTH
AGRICULTURE
PRIORITY AREAS FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF CLIMATE
SERVICES ACCORDING TO THE GFCS

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4 - CUSTOMIZED WARNING SYSTEMS

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4 - CUSTOMIZED WARNING SYSTEMS
USER
REGISTER
THROUGH
THE APP
PERSONALIZED
LEVEL OF RISK
ASSESSMENT OF THE
WARNING SYSTEM
TO IMPROVE THE
SERVICES

28. 5th International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2014
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5 - CONCLUSIONS
• The definition and implementation of Weather-related Customized
Early Warning Systems (CEWS) at an individual level should be
developed based on ecological approaches and on the definition
of biometeorological profiles.
• A detailed meteorological forecasting is also needed to be able
to run the service personally.
• These personalized warning systems can easily be spread all
over the world through the development of new Climate Services
based on ICTs technologies such as WEB Services, GIS or APPs.

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THANK YOU FOR YOUR ATTENTION
FERNANDHP@UNICAN.ES