6th International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2016 Integrative Risk Management - Towards Resilient Cities. 28 August - 01 September 2016 in Davos, Switzerland

1. 6th
International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2016
‘Integrative Risk Management – Towards Resilient Cities‘ • 28 Aug – 1 Sept 2016 • Davos • Switzerland
www.grforum.org
Gas Flaring, Climate Change and the
Nigeria Case
Olukoya Obafemi A.P,
International Graduate Research School: Heritage
Studies,
Brandenburg Technical University, Cottbus, Germany

2. 6th
International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2016
‘Integrative Risk Management – Towards Resilient Cities‘ • 28 Aug – 1 Sept 2016 • Davos • Switzerland
www.grforum.org
Presentation
INTRODUCTION
•General Introduction to climate
change
•Using Diachronic and Synchronic
data
THE CASE
• Introducing climate change and
theNigeria case
•Gas Flaring and the Niger-Delta
Case
•Effects of Gas Flaring on Niger
Delta
•Gasflaringandclimatechange
RECOMMENDATION
CONCLUSION
•Recommendation
•Conclusion
1

3. 6th
International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2016
‘Integrative Risk Management – Towards Resilient Cities‘ • 28 Aug – 1 Sept 2016 • Davos • Switzerland
www.grforum.org
INTRODUCTION
climate is change
• According to the UNFCCC and IPCC, it is the perturbation of the geophysical
equilibrium of the anthroposphere which is characterised by increase in
temperature, acidification, sea rise, drought, desertification to mention a few(1)
2
Climate is determined by:
• incoming radiation (sun)
• reflected radiation (albedo)
• retained heat (Greenhouse gases)

4. 6th
International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2016
‘Integrative Risk Management – Towards Resilient Cities‘ • 28 Aug – 1 Sept 2016 • Davos • Switzerland
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INTRODUCTION
Climate Change as Phenomenon
CLIMATE CHANGE
Natural phenomenon
constructivism
Theory of AGW
positivism
3

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International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2016
‘Integrative Risk Management – Towards Resilient Cities‘ • 28 Aug – 1 Sept 2016 • Davos • Switzerland
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INTRODUCTION 4
Climate change and Journey of Humanity
Holocene
Anthropocene
Source: Hans-Peter Plag, 2016
Cataclysmic
prognosis

6. 6th
International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2016
‘Integrative Risk Management – Towards Resilient Cities‘ • 28 Aug – 1 Sept 2016 • Davos • Switzerland
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4
INTRODUCTION
Paleo data, Current State and Prognosis
5
Paleo data of the climate baseline. (Hans-Peter Plag, 2016)

7. 6th
International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2016
‘Integrative Risk Management – Towards Resilient Cities‘ • 28 Aug – 1 Sept 2016 • Davos • Switzerland
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CLIMATE CHANGE AS A DISASTER
Between climate change and disaster?
• A threat is a proximate human/natural activity which have
caused/causing/may cause impairment/destruction of a property
target, but only in the presence of exposure and vulnerability (2)
6
Source: (IPCC, 2012: Managing the Risks of Extreme Events and Disasters to Advance Climate Change Adaptation)

8. 6th
International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2016
‘Integrative Risk Management – Towards Resilient Cities‘ • 28 Aug – 1 Sept 2016 • Davos • Switzerland
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CLIMATE CHANGE AND DEVELOPMENT 7
Conceptual model for Planned adaptation model. (Klein et al, 1998)
What counts as
development?
Qualitatively or
quantitatively?
What counts as
policies?

9. 6th
International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2016
‘Integrative Risk Management – Towards Resilient Cities‘ • 28 Aug – 1 Sept 2016 • Davos • Switzerland
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CLIMATE CHANGE AND THE NIGERIA CASE
GHG in the Nigeria Context
8
BY OLUKOYA OBAFEMI ALABA. P 2016

10. 6th
International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2016
‘Integrative Risk Management – Towards Resilient Cities‘ • 28 Aug – 1 Sept 2016 • Davos • Switzerland
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CLIMATE CHANGE AND THE NIGERIA CASE
Climate implication and predictions
• The scenario analysis of the Climate Systems Analysis Group at the
University of Cape Town using statistical downscaling method to
extrapolate the empirical data of about 40 meteorological stations in the
country(5)
9
• The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), did identify Nigeria as a
climate change “hot spot” likely to see major shifts in weather in the twenty-first
century.(4)

11. 6th
International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2016
‘Integrative Risk Management – Towards Resilient Cities‘ • 28 Aug – 1 Sept 2016 • Davos • Switzerland
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CLIMATE CHANGE AND THE NIGERIA CASE
Climate implication and predictions
10
• Projected Increases in Maximum Daily Temperature over Nigeria (Source: BNRCC, 2011)
• Projected Changes in Average Daily Rainfall over Nigeria (Source: BNRCC, 2011)

12. 6th
International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2016
‘Integrative Risk Management – Towards Resilient Cities‘ • 28 Aug – 1 Sept 2016 • Davos • Switzerland
www.grforum.org
CLIMATE CHANGE AND THE NIGERIA CASE
Climate implication and predictions
• Average precipitation in Nigeria between 1976-
2065(Source: BNRCC, 2011)
• Average temperature in Nigeria between 1976-
2065(Source: BNRCC, 2011)
11
• Spatial variation in exposure to climate change in
Nigeria
• Spatial variation in vulnerability to climate change
in Nigeria

13. 6th
International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2016
‘Integrative Risk Management – Towards Resilient Cities‘ • 28 Aug – 1 Sept 2016 • Davos • Switzerland
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CLIMATE CHANGE AND THE NIGERIA CASE
Climate implication and predictions
• The effects of climate extreme differ from region to region due to the varied
ecological zones. Hence, no overarching adaptive strategy can be developed for
the country.Geopolitical zone Ecological Zone Practical Effects Projected Effects
South-South Costal Swamp Sea rise, Flooding Sea level rise of 0.3 m by
2020 and 1m by 2050
South East Costal Swamp Sea rise, Flooding Sea rise, Flooding
South West Costal Swamp/Rain Forest Sea rise, Erosion Sea level rise of 0.3 m by
2020 and 1m by 2050
North Central Southern/Northern Guinea
Savanna
Gully erosion, Flooding increased rainfall of 0.2 –
0.4mm/day,
North East Sudan Sahel Increased temperature,
Drought, Desertification
Increase in temperature 2.0
– 2.2OC (2046 – 2065) and
3.5 – 4.5OC at the end of
the 21st century
North West Sudan Savannah Increased temperature,
Drought, desertification
Increase in temperature 2.0
– 2.2OC (2046 – 2065) and
3.5 – 4.5OC at the end of
the 21st century
12

14. 6th
International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2016
‘Integrative Risk Management – Towards Resilient Cities‘ • 28 Aug – 1 Sept 2016 • Davos • Switzerland
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GAS FLARING AND THE NIGER DELTA CASE
The Niger Delta
• The Niger Delta is located on the Atlantic coast of southern Nigeria. The region
is mostly under tidal influence. It is made up of nine oil-producing states (6).
13
(Source: UNEP-WCMC and Niger Delta Survey, 2005

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International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2016
‘Integrative Risk Management – Towards Resilient Cities‘ • 28 Aug – 1 Sept 2016 • Davos • Switzerland
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GAS FLARING AND THE NIGER DELTA CASE
Gas Flaring as a Phenomenon
14
• Gas flaring as a phenomenon is associated with oil producing countries. Today, Nigeria is
the second largest flarer of these obnoxious gases in the world.
(Source: National Oceanic and atmospheric administration (NOAA) BY OLUKOYA OBAFEMI ALABA. P 2016
• Nigeria flares an estimated amount of 12 million metric tons of methane and 35 million
metric tons of carbon dioxide in a year through gas flaring.
• However, the IPCC argued that gas flaring account for about 36% - 66% of the world’s
greenhouse gas emission (GHG), which principally includes methane (CH4), Carbon
dioxide (CO2), and Nitrous oxide (N2O) which are responsible for global warming.

16. 6th
International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2016
‘Integrative Risk Management – Towards Resilient Cities‘ • 28 Aug – 1 Sept 2016 • Davos • Switzerland
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GAS FLARING AND THE NIGER DELTA CASE
The Niger Delta Experience
• Today, there are 606 oil fields in the Niger Delta, of which 360 are on-shore and 246 off-
shore. Some of this flaring sites have been in operation since the discovery of crude oil in
the 1958 (7)
15
(Source: Source: UNEP-WCMC and Niger Delta Survey, 2005

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International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2016
‘Integrative Risk Management – Towards Resilient Cities‘ • 28 Aug – 1 Sept 2016 • Davos • Switzerland
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• Health effects
• Effects on green spaces
• Effects on building
• Acidic rain
General Effects of Gas Flaring 16

18. 6th
International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2016
‘Integrative Risk Management – Towards Resilient Cities‘ • 28 Aug – 1 Sept 2016 • Davos • Switzerland
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BETWEEN GAS FLARING AND CLIMATE CHANGE
The Niger Delta Experience
• The IPCC (8) stated that there is apparent link between greenhouse gases emission and
change in climate and between global temperature and sea level rise.
Spatial exposure in the Niger Delta region (Oyegun Et al, 2016) Spatial exposure in the Niger Delta region (Oyegun Et al, 20
17
• In the case of the Niger Delta, between 1970 and now, there have been several
incidences of flooding which have destroyed several homes and displaced many in this
region. This was linked to the 0.462m rise of the sea level which started since 1970 (18).

19. 6th
International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2016
‘Integrative Risk Management – Towards Resilient Cities‘ • 28 Aug – 1 Sept 2016 • Davos • Switzerland
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RECOMMENDATION 18
SEA RISE/ FLOODING
ANTHROPOGENIC PRESSURE
VULNERABILITY AND EXPOSURE
DISASTER/COMMUNITY
DISPLACEMENT
INFORMATION
GATHERING
PLANNING
AND DESIGN
POLICIES
DEVELOPMENT
DEVELOPMENT
OBJECTIVES
RELOCATION OF
VULNERABLE
SETTLEMENT
CONSTRUCTION OF
GUTTERS AND WATER
RUN OFFS
IMPLEMENTATIONS MONITORING/E
VALUATION
PERIODIC
EVALUATION
PERIODIC
REPORTING
NEW URBAN PLANNING/
ENFORCING FLARING
LAWS
• RISK MANAGEMENT
• ASSET MANAGEMENT
• SYSTEM RESILIENCE
• EMERGENCY
PREPAREDNESS

20. 6th
International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2016
‘Integrative Risk Management – Towards Resilient Cities‘ • 28 Aug – 1 Sept 2016 • Davos • Switzerland
www.grforum.org
CONCLUSION
INFORMATION
The Niger Delta being a costal region, is vulnerable to flooding as a
result of the sea rise. The sea rise is linked with a local climate change
induced by gas flaring and several other environmental factor .
ACTION PLAN.
Engagement of risk preparedness procedure and risk management.
Using planned adaptation procedure. Ranging from policies to
organizational management
EMISSION POLICIES
Flaring policies must be implemented and enforced. New urban planning
must be done. Risk management plans must be instituted. Community
enlightenment programs must be conducted
BY OLUKOYA OBAFEMI ALABA. P 2016
19

21. 6th
International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2016
‘Integrative Risk Management – Towards Resilient Cities‘ • 28 Aug – 1 Sept 2016 • Davos • Switzerland
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REFERENCE 20
(1). IPCC: Climate Change Assessment Reports: 1 (1990), 2 (1995), 3 (2001), 4 (2007). Retrieved from
http://www.ipcc.ch/ipccreports/assessmentreports.htm
(2). Salafsky, N., Salzer, D., Stattersfield, A. J., Hilton-Taylor, C., Neugarten, R., Butchart, S. H. M., Collen,
B., Cox, N., Master, L. L., O’Connor, S. and Wilkie, D. 2008. A standard lexicon for biodiversity
conservation: unified classifications of threats and actions. Conservation Biology, Vol. 22,
No. 4, pp. 897–911.
(3). Noah’s Ark, (2007): Global Climate Change Impact on Built Heritage and Cultural Landscapes, Vulnerability Atlas
(124 p.) and Guidelines (87 p.), Noah’s Ark Project Final Int. Meeting, Rome, unpublished.
http://nohasark.isac.cnr.it/deliverables.php
(4). M. Boko et al., Climate Change (2007): Impacts, Adaptation, and Vulnerability—Africa (Cambridge: Cambridge
University Press, 2007).
(5). BNRCC (Building Nigeria’s Response to Climate Change) (2011): Towards A National Adaptation Strategy and Plan
of Action (NASPA): A Consultative Document for Stakeholder Review and Consultation
(6). Biomass Research Report 140. (2014). The Impact Of Oil Exploration, Extraction And Transport On Mangrove
Vegetation And Carbon Stocks In Nigeria. Retrieved from www.biomassresearch.eu
(7). Ibid.
(8). IPCC (1990). Working Group III, (1990). Strategies for Adaptation to Sea Level Rise. Report of the Coastal Zone
Management Subgroup, Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Working Group, Rikkswaterstatt, The
Netherlands. 122p
BY OLUKOYA OBAFEMI ALABA. P 2016

22. 6th
International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2016
‘Integrative Risk Management – Towards Resilient Cities‘ • 28 Aug – 1 Sept 2016 • Davos • Switzerland
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