5th International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2014 Integrative Risk Management - The role of science, technology & practice 24-28 August 2014 in Davos, Switzerland

1. There’s an Elephant in the Room:
5th International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2014
‘Integrative Risk Management - The role of science, technology & practice‘ • 24-28 August 2014 • Davos • Switzerland
www.grforum.org
Anti-Resilience.
Dr. John S. Bircham
Bircham-Global Ltd.
New Zealand
1

2. 5th International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2014
‘Integrative Risk Management - The role of science, technology & practice‘ • 24-28 August 2014 • Davos • Switzerland
www.grforum.org
There’s an Elephant in the Room: Anti-Resilience
Julianne Koepcke
2

3. 5th International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2014
‘Integrative Risk Management - The role of science, technology & practice‘ • 24-28 August 2014 • Davos • Switzerland
www.grforum.org
There’s an Elephant in the Room: Anti-Resilience
• If her beliefs in respect of the context in which she found herself,
the Amazonian Jungle, had been incorrect.
– Water from a spring does not flow to a stream and then to a river.
3
What would have happened to Julianne

4. There’s an Elephant in the Room: Anti-Resilience 4
Relentless In Its Pursuit:
• Greater Performance
• Economic Efficiency:
Achieves Its Objectives:
5th International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2014
‘Integrative Risk Management - The role of science, technology & practice‘ • 24-28 August 2014 • Davos • Switzerland
www.grforum.org
– “More-for-Less”
• Solves Its Problems By:
– Increasing Complexity
– Integrating & Connecting Systems
• Applying Pressure to Squeeze Out...
• “More for Less”

5. Greater Technical &
Social Complexity
+
5th International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2014
‘Integrative Risk Management - The role of science, technology & practice‘ • 24-28 August 2014 • Davos • Switzerland
www.grforum.org
There’s an Elephant in the Room: Anti-Resilience
Pressure for Complexity/Efficiency is
Societally Driven to Solve Its Problems
5
Optimization
(Efficiency – Technical & Social)
+
Global Competition
Political Imperatives

6. 5th International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2014
‘Integrative Risk Management - The role of science, technology & practice‘ • 24-28 August 2014 • Davos • Switzerland
www.grforum.org
There’s an Elephant in the Room: Anti-Resilience
As the “Consumer” It Demands
“More-for Less”
6
Optimization
(Efficiency – Technical & Social)
Expectations of
Consumers for:
More-for-Less
Greater Technical &
Social Complexity
+
+
+
+
Global Competition
Political Imperatives
A

7. A B
5th International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2014
‘Integrative Risk Management - The role of science, technology & practice‘ • 24-28 August 2014 • Davos • Switzerland
www.grforum.org
There’s an Elephant in the Room: Anti-Resilience
As “Shareholder/Stakeholder” It Demands
Greater Returns on Investment
7
Optimization
(Efficiency – Technical & Social)
Expectations of
Shareholders & Stakeholders:
Greater Profit & Cost Efficiency
Expectations of
Consumers for:
More-for-Less
Greater Technical &
Social Complexity
+
+ +
+
+
+
Global Competition
Political Imperatives

8. Largely Hidden: Structured Social – Soft Complexity
Sub-Contractor
5th International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2014
‘Integrative Risk Management - The role of science, technology & practice‘ • 24-28 August 2014 • Davos • Switzerland
www.grforum.org
There’s an Elephant in the Room: Anti-Resilience
Contractor
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Intensity of the Cost Imperative: Downsizing – Cost Reduction - Outsourcing
Low Soft Complexity High
Sub-Contractor
Contractor
Subsidiary
Contractor
Group
Subsidiary
Sub-Contractor
Low Dependence & Connectedness High
Low Resiliency High
Low Benefits of Complexity High

9. 5th International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2014
‘Integrative Risk Management - The role of science, technology & practice‘ • 24-28 August 2014 • Davos • Switzerland
www.grforum.org
There’s an Elephant in the Room: Anti-Resilience
• Beliefs that underpin and lead to behaviours that:
– Are “Opposed To“ – “Anti” the very thing we are seeking
to achieve:
– Resilience?
9
What if our “Beliefs” in the many contexts in which
we find ourselves are flawed or at best incomplete….

10. Reduction in Resilience
-
A B
5th International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2014
‘Integrative Risk Management - The role of science, technology & practice‘ • 24-28 August 2014 • Davos • Switzerland
www.grforum.org
There’s an Elephant in the Room: Anti-Resilience
Pressure for Complexity/Efficiency is
Societally Driven to Solve Its Problems
10
Optimization
(Efficiency – Technical & Social)
Expectations of
Shareholders & Stakeholders:
Greater Profit & Cost Efficiency
Expectations of
Consumers for:
More-for-Less
Greater Technical &
Social Complexity
+
+ +
+
+
+
Global Competition
Political Imperatives

11. 5th International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2014
‘Integrative Risk Management - The role of science, technology & practice‘ • 24-28 August 2014 • Davos • Switzerland
www.grforum.org
There’s an Elephant in the Room: Anti-Resilience
Bow-Waves of Hidden Risk
11
Pragmatic Attitudes in the Work-Place
Short-Cuts – Non-Procedural Work Practices
Non-Core, But Essential, Tasks & Activities Left Undone

12. There’s an Elephant in the Room: Anti-Resilience 12
Anti-Resilience
”There’s an Elephant in the Room. There’s a problem that we are oblivious to - never talk about.”
5th International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2014
‘Integrative Risk Management - The role of science, technology & practice‘ • 24-28 August 2014 • Davos • Switzerland
“Ignoring the Elephant does not make it go away: it remains in the room as large www.grforum.as life!”
org
Dr. John S. Bircham
Email: John.Bircham@Bircham-Global.com
Web: http://Bircham-Global.com