5th International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2014 Integrative Risk Management - The role of science, technology & practice 24-28 August 2014 in Davos, Switzerland

1. Rapid analysis and spatialisation of risk:
performing scenario-based modelling in
near-real time with EO data
Andrew Eddy, RASOR Project Manager, Athena Global, France
andrew.eddy@athenaglobal.com
Roberto Rudari, RASOR Coordinator, CIMA Foundation, Italy
roberto.rudari@cimafoundation.org
RASOR has received EC 7th framework funding under grant agreement no 606888
5th International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2014
‘Integrative Risk Management - The role of science, technology & practice‘
www.grforum.org 24-28 August 2014 • Davos • Switzerland

2. Document Understand Simulate, Model,
RISK
Determine
5th International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2014
‘Integrative Risk Management - The role of science, technology & practice‘
Risk management Risk assessment & evaluation
www.grforum.org 24-28 August 2014 • Davos • Switzerland

3. What do DRM Users Need?
• Up-to-date spatialised view of hazard extent (across several
• Up-to-date information on exposure of people and assets (and
ability to project change)
• Comprehensive information on past disasters (to assist in risk
• Ability to modify key parameters and project impact
• Ability to project cumulative effect of risk and correlations
• Ability to integrate analysis in a single tool
• Ability to produce information (layers) for ingestion in other tools
5th International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2014
identification)
‘Integrative Risk Management - The role of science, technology & practice‘
hazards)
www.grforum.org 24-28 August 2014 • Davos • Switzerland

4. 5th International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2014
RASOR Structure
‘Integrative Risk Management - The role of science, technology & practice‘
www.grforum.org 24-28 August 2014 • Davos • Switzerland

5. RASOR – other data partners and plug-ins, tools for data
preparation and analysis – existing and prospective
5th International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2014
‘Integrative Risk Management - The role of science, technology & practice‘
www.grforum.org 24-28 August 2014 • Davos • Switzerland
InaSAFE
Your tool/organisation here?

6. Exposure Data Extraction Example
5th International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2014
‘Integrative Risk Management - The role of science, technology & practice‘
www.grforum.org 24-28 August 2014 • Davos • Switzerland

7. Set up of requested assets
(population, infrastructure DB)
5th International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2014
‘Integrative Risk Management - The role of science, technology & practice‘
www.grforum.org 24-28 August 2014 • Davos • Switzerland
over tests sites
Urban density ranking, Seveso sites, Power plant,
electric nodes, Population census disaggregate
at higher level
Exposure example (2)

8. Flood Risk Assessment
• Delft 3D FLOW - Open source 2D shallow water eqs
• Drying and flooding of grid cells
• Rectangular or curvilinear grids
• Nested grids
5th International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2014
‘Integrative Risk Management - The role of science, technology & practice‘
www.grforum.org 24-28 August 2014 • Davos • Switzerland

9. FAST: tool development/ prototype in Delft Dashboard (ongoing)
Result < 1 minute
Specify tsunami
amplitudes (may
also use any other
tool or ASCII
editor)
5th International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2014
Area selection and
generation of DEM /
bathymetry using
global data with
desired resolution
‘Integrative Risk Management - The role of science, technology & practice‘
Generation of input points at
desired intervals for tsunami
wave amplitudes
www.grforum.org 24-28 August 2014 • Davos • Switzerland
The computation
module is yet to
be made an
excutable
(windows based)

10. Historical Disaster Extent Example – Flood Polygons
Processing of EO data in order to derived on a DB of disaster extent, disaster
frequency and/or duration
Gonaïves, Haïti
• 2004
• 2008
Event duration over 15 days
5th International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2014
Event duration over 5 days
‘Integrative Risk Management - The role of science, technology & practice‘
www.grforum.org 24-28 August 2014 • Davos • Switzerland

11. Water depth 48hr
5th International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2014
‘Integrative Risk Management - The role of science, technology & practice‘
www.grforum.org 24-28 August 2014 • Davos • Switzerland

12. Seismic Example, Bandung (Java)
Lembang Fault location, L
Length: 27 km -> Max magnitude m ~7
Event rate R yet unknown
RASOR EO-data products:
Location of further active faults, Ln
Estimate of their length and max
magnitude mn
Inter-seismic deformation rates from
InSAR to estimate Rn
Updated hazard scenarios
From in situ data/obs:
5th International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2014
‘Integrative Risk Management - The role of science, technology & practice‘
www.grforum.org 24-28 August 2014 • Davos • Switzerland

13. RASOR – what does it do?
– Mitigation: compile new analysis with or without in-situ data in hours or days instead of weeks
– Warning: update existing risk analysis with NRT data from satellites as risk materializes;
projections of future impact
– Response: mark up data layers and inject new information to refine analysis
– Recovery: track assets and support logistics of major recovery in NRT
– Past case studies of events, current situations, future scenarios
– Multiple variables, sectoral perspectives, inter-related hazards
– Evolving exposure and hazards
– Flexible outputs
– VHR DEMs (TanDEM-X and Pleiades)
– Satellite-based visualization
– Hazard: from known data bases and new EO-based sources
– Exposure: from global data bases and newly extracted EO-based
– Vulnerability: from in-situ information when available
5th International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2014
‘Integrative Risk Management - The role of science, technology & practice‘
• Rapid:
and months
• Analysis:
• Spatialisation:
• Risk:
www.grforum.org 24-28 August 2014 • Davos • Switzerland

14. Objectives by Phase
– Demonstrate technical feasibility of integrated solution (five case studies)
– Develop business model and business planning for next phases
– Develop end user awareness and interest
– Develop prototype tool for global applications
– Provide proto-operational services with targeted users
– Operational services on all three tracks (global, national, local)
5th International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2014
• RASOR Phase 1
• RASOR Phase 2
• RASOR Phase 3
‘Integrative Risk Management - The role of science, technology & practice‘
www.grforum.org 24-28 August 2014 • Davos • Switzerland

15. Added value for the Post 2015 Framework for
Disaster Risk Reduction
• How did your work support the implementation of the Hyogo
Framework for Action:
– Just beginning now
• From your perspective what are the main gaps, needs and
further steps to be addressed in the Post 2015 Framework for
Disaster Risk Reduction in
– Research: increased effort required to adapt technologies to user
– Education & Training: satellite EO is a powerful and compelling tool to
train local decision-makers on risk assessment
– Implementation & Practice & Policy: satellite EO offers a globally
applicable, objective means of measuring risk and progress of risk
reduction
5th International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2014
communities
‘Integrative Risk Management - The role of science, technology & practice‘
www.grforum.org 24-28 August 2014 • Davos • Switzerland

16. SUPPORTING PARTNERS
• World Bank (WB)/Global Facility for Disaster Reduction and Recovery (GFDRR) International Organisation
• UNITAR’S Operational Satellite Applications Programme (UNOSAT) International Organisation
• Munich Reinsurance Germany
• Risk Management Solutions (RMS) United Kingdom
• Caribbean Institute for Meteorology & Hydrology (CIMH) CARICOM
• University of the West Indies (UWI) CARICOM
• Indonesia Ministry of Public Works – Research Center for Water Resources (RCWC) Indonesia
• Italy National Civil Protection Department (DPC) Italy
• Agenzia Regionale per la Protezione dell’Ambiente – Emilia Romagna (ARPA-SIMC) Italy
• General Secretariat for Civil Protection of Greece (GSCP) Greece
• Dutch Ministry of Environment and Infrastructure Netherlands
• GEO Secretariat International Organisation
• NASA – Caribbean Satellite Disaster Pilot & Global Regional End-to-end Disaster Pilot Lead (GEO) USA
• CEOS Disaster SBA Chair International Organisation
• Agenzia Spaziale Italiana (ASI) Italy
• EARCS (European Association of Remote Sensing Companies) Belgium
• Global Earthquake Model (GEM) International Organization
• UN International Strategy for Disaster Reduction (UNISDR) International Organization
5th International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2014
‘Integrative Risk Management - The role of science, technology & practice‘
www.grforum.org 24-28 August 2014 • Davos • Switzerland

17. 5th International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2014
‘Integrative Risk Management - The role of science, technology & practice‘
www.grforum.org 24-28 August 2014 • Davos • Switzerland