6th International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2016 Integrative Risk Management - Towards Resilient Cities. 28 August - 01 September 2016 in Davos, Switzerland

1. 6th
International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2016
‘Integrative Risk Management – Towards Resilient Cities‘ • 28 Aug – 1 Sept 2016 • Davos • Switzerland
www.grforum.org
Dynamic Risk Map (DRM) for
Enhancing Risk Assessment of
Construction Projects in Random
Districts in Egypt.
Dr. Nael Zabel, WorleyParsons, Egypt
Dr. Ghadeer Alfandi, MEW, Kuwait
Dr. Mohamed Saleh, Military Technical, Egypt
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2. 6th
International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2016
‘Integrative Risk Management – Towards Resilient Cities‘ • 28 Aug – 1 Sept 2016 • Davos • Switzerland
www.grforum.org
AGENDA
 Introduction
 Slum and Random district in Egypt
 DRM Approach and Methodology
 Identifying the Interdependency Relationships
 Dynamic Assessment Based the Interdependency Relationships
 Conclusion
 Discussion and Questions

3. 6th
International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2016
‘Integrative Risk Management – Towards Resilient Cities‘ • 28 Aug – 1 Sept 2016 • Davos • Switzerland
www.grforum.org
INTRODUCTION

4. 6th
International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2016
‘Integrative Risk Management – Towards Resilient Cities‘ • 28 Aug – 1 Sept 2016 • Davos • Switzerland
www.grforum.org
MEANING OF RISK
 Any possible/potential event could have either:
Positive consequence (opportunity)
Negative consequence (threats)
 Risks aren’t problems.
 Problems are negative events that are in the process of occurring
right now.
 Risks are potential/possible event that can materialize and then
become problems.

5. 6th
International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2016
‘Integrative Risk Management – Towards Resilient Cities‘ • 28 Aug – 1 Sept 2016 • Davos • Switzerland
www.grforum.org
RISK VERSUS UNCERTAINTY

6. 6th
International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2016
‘Integrative Risk Management – Towards Resilient Cities‘ • 28 Aug – 1 Sept 2016 • Davos • Switzerland
www.grforum.org
SLUM AND RANDOM DISTRICT IN
EGYPT

7. 6th
International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2016
‘Integrative Risk Management – Towards Resilient Cities‘ • 28 Aug – 1 Sept 2016 • Davos • Switzerland
www.grforum.org
RISKS OF CONSTRUCTION PROJECTS IN RANDOM
DISTRICTS IN EGYPT
The most critical risk factors of construction projects in random districts
in Egypt:
• Delay or inability of the owner (Government) to give full possession to the contractor.
• Physical constrains which cause contraindications (too narrow access, weakness of
houses, and unavailability of storage areas….etc.).
• Inaccuracy of the design & engineering drawings.
• changes in the scope of work
• Inability of the owner (Government) to finance the project due to insufficient project
budget.
• Insufficient design criteria, due to the highly population density.
• Existing random/local utilities cause extra contraindications for the construction and
increasing the uncertainty degree.
• Incorrect bill of quantities of the project.
• Poor communication, coordination, and cooperation between the project parties.
• Unexpected (during bidding phase) the high inflation rates.

8. 6th
International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2016
‘Integrative Risk Management – Towards Resilient Cities‘ • 28 Aug – 1 Sept 2016 • Davos • Switzerland
www.grforum.org

9. 6th
International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2016
‘Integrative Risk Management – Towards Resilient Cities‘ • 28 Aug – 1 Sept 2016 • Davos • Switzerland
www.grforum.org
DRM APPROACH AND METHODOLOGY

10. 6th
International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2016
‘Integrative Risk Management – Towards Resilient Cities‘ • 28 Aug – 1 Sept 2016 • Davos • Switzerland
www.grforum.org
DRM METHODOLOGY
 Identify the potential risk factors,
 A preliminary qualitative assessment for those factors,
 The identified risks were then organized into groups according to
relevance,
 Developed layer one of the dynamic risk map, DRM, contains all
potential dependency relationships between pairs of risk factors in a
given risk group,
 Developed layer two of the DRM contains all dependency relationships
between pairs of risk factors in two different risk groups,
 The cross impact analysis or CIA method was specifically selected to
perform the computations and reasoning operations.

11. 6th
International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2016
‘Integrative Risk Management – Towards Resilient Cities‘ • 28 Aug – 1 Sept 2016 • Davos • Switzerland
www.grforum.org
IDENTIFYING INTERDEPENDENCY RELATIONSHIPS
BETWEEN RISK FACTORS
Applied
N-squared
Diagram
Fig. 1: Generic N2 diagram

12. 6th
International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2016
‘Integrative Risk Management – Towards Resilient Cities‘ • 28 Aug – 1 Sept 2016 • Davos • Switzerland
www.grforum.org
CIA TECHNIQUE
Impact Symbol Score
Significantly in the same direction Sig + 3
Moderately in the same direction Mod + 2
Slightly in the same direction Lig + 1
No impact 0 0
 The CIA is the technique of choice for performing the computations
as outlined in a subsequent section
CV = impact + 1, where impact equals 3 in case of Sig+, 2 for Mod +, and
finally 1 for Lig+.

13. 6th
International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2016
‘Integrative Risk Management – Towards Resilient Cities‘ • 28 Aug – 1 Sept 2016 • Davos • Switzerland
www.grforum.org
IDENTIFYING THE INTERDEPENDENCY
RELATIONSHIPS

14. 6th
International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2016
‘Integrative Risk Management – Towards Resilient Cities‘ • 28 Aug – 1 Sept 2016 • Davos • Switzerland
www.grforum.org
IDENTIFYING THE INTERDEPENDENCY
RELATIONSHIPS
 Identifying the Interdependency Relationships between
Risk Group
 Identifying the Interdependency Relationships between
Risk Factors

15. 6th
International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2016
‘Integrative Risk Management – Towards Resilient Cities‘ • 28 Aug – 1 Sept 2016 • Davos • Switzerland
www.grforum.org
DYNAMIC ASSESSMENT BASED THE
INTERDEPENDENCY RELATIONSHIPS

16. 6th
International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2016
‘Integrative Risk Management – Towards Resilient Cities‘ • 28 Aug – 1 Sept 2016 • Davos • Switzerland
www.grforum.org
DYNAMIC ASSESSMENT

17. 6th
International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2016
‘Integrative Risk Management – Towards Resilient Cities‘ • 28 Aug – 1 Sept 2016 • Davos • Switzerland
www.grforum.org
CONCLUSIONS

18. 6th
International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2016
‘Integrative Risk Management – Towards Resilient Cities‘ • 28 Aug – 1 Sept 2016 • Davos • Switzerland
www.grforum.org
CONCLUSION
 DRM that gives industry practitioners a means to better understand
project risks/uncertainties and how they relate to each other.
 This mechanism further provides a handy tool to assess project risks
in a more thoroughly manner and right where they can best be
managed.
 Analytical risk mapping can simply help us stop the snow ball from
accumulating.

19. 6th
International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2016
‘Integrative Risk Management – Towards Resilient Cities‘ • 28 Aug – 1 Sept 2016 • Davos • Switzerland
www.grforum.org
Many Thanks
Discussion and Questions