Development of Urban Flood Analysis Model for Real-time Urban Flood Forecasting and Modeling, Sengyong CHOI
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6th International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2016 Integrative Risk Management - Towards Resilient Cities. 28 August - 01 September 2016 in Davos, Switzerland
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Development of Urban Flood Analysis Model for Real-time Urban Flood Forecasting and Modeling, Sengyong CHOI
- 1. 6th International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2016 ‘Integrative Risk Management – Towards Resilient Cities‘ • 28 Aug – 1 Sept 2016 • Davos • Switzerland www.grforum.org Development of urban flood analysis model for real-time urban flood forecasting and modeling Choi, Sengyong / Cho, Jaewoong/ Kim, Yuntae /Choi, Seongyeol National Disaster Management Research Institute, Republic of Korea 2016. 8. 30.
- 2. 6th International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2016 ‘Integrative Risk Management – Towards Resilient Cities‘ • 28 Aug – 1 Sept 2016 • Davos • Switzerland www.grforum.org CONTENTS one Causes of urban flood and damage cases two Overview of the urban flood analysis model development four Application and utilization of the developed model three Development of urban flood analysis model
- 3. 6th International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2016 ‘Integrative Risk Management – Towards Resilient Cities‘ • 28 Aug – 1 Sept 2016 • Davos • Switzerland www.grforum.org CausesofUrbanFloodand UrbanFloodDamage
- 4. 6th International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2016 ‘Integrative Risk Management – Towards Resilient Cities‘ • 28 Aug – 1 Sept 2016 • Davos • Switzerland www.grforum.org Major Causes of Urban Flood Urbanization: Impervious surface in urban area is increasing due to urbanization. Urban flood risk : Once damage occurs, the damage scale is greater than previously. Climate Change : Annual total rainfall and Torrential rainfall increase. Main Issues Population and
- 5. 6th International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2016 ‘Integrative Risk Management – Towards Resilient Cities‘ • 28 Aug – 1 Sept 2016 • Davos • Switzerland www.grforum.org Urban Flood Damages ’11 Inundation in Gangnam ’11 Landslide in Gangnam In Korea, urban flood damage of ground and underground spaces in urban area have increased due to the torrential rain and urbanization. Main Issues
- 6. 6th International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2016 ‘Integrative Risk Management – Towards Resilient Cities‘ • 28 Aug – 1 Sept 2016 • Davos • Switzerland www.grforum.org Overviewoftheurbanflood analysis model development
- 7. 6th International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2016 ‘Integrative Risk Management – Towards Resilient Cities‘ • 28 Aug – 1 Sept 2016 • Davos • Switzerland www.grforum.org Problems of Urban Flood Management The current rainfall forecast system for urban flood management is unsuitable → There is a limit of the forecast for prevention of urban flooding damage due to flash flood There is no observing system for urban flood management There is no urban flood analysis model for real-time urban flood response. Problems
- 8. 6th International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2016 ‘Integrative Risk Management – Towards Resilient Cities‘ • 28 Aug – 1 Sept 2016 • Davos • Switzerland www.grforum.org Background and Objective of Model Development There is no inundation analysis model for the ground and underground spaces to manage the urban flooding
- 9. 6th International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2016 ‘Integrative Risk Management – Towards Resilient Cities‘ • 28 Aug – 1 Sept 2016 • Davos • Switzerland www.grforum.org Development ofurbanflood analysis model
- 10. 6th International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2016 ‘Integrative Risk Management – Towards Resilient Cities‘ • 28 Aug – 1 Sept 2016 • Davos • Switzerland www.grforum.org Development of Integrated Inundation Analysis Model 1.Development of ground inundation analysis model 2.Development of underground inundation analysis model 3. Development of integrated inundation analysis model 4.Development of integrated inundation analysis system(based on GIS) Underground entrance
- 11. 6th International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2016 ‘Integrative Risk Management – Towards Resilient Cities‘ • 28 Aug – 1 Sept 2016 • Davos • Switzerland www.grforum.org Features of Developed Model
- 12. 6th International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2016 ‘Integrative Risk Management – Towards Resilient Cities‘ • 28 Aug – 1 Sept 2016 • Davos • Switzerland www.grforum.org Development of GUI version inundation analysis model In the case of hydrological modeling for surface runoff Display of Inundation depth Display of water surface elev. Display of runoff discharge Function to display the simulation results such as inundation depth, water surface elev. and runoff discharge Animation of simulation results To check the values of the simulation results Functions
- 13. 6th International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2016 ‘Integrative Risk Management – Towards Resilient Cities‘ • 28 Aug – 1 Sept 2016 • Davos • Switzerland www.grforum.org Development of GUI version inundation analysis model In the case of hydrological modeling for surface runoff Display of pipe network simulation Display of pipe information Display of manhole information Function to display the simulation results To check the information of pipe network(pipe, manhole) Notification about the risk degree of manholes and pipelines according to the simulation time(step) Functions
- 14. 6th International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2016 ‘Integrative Risk Management – Towards Resilient Cities‘ • 28 Aug – 1 Sept 2016 • Davos • Switzerland www.grforum.org Development of GUI version inundation analysis model In the case of hydrological modeling for surface runoff To provide some graphs for simulation results To check the depth and water elevation of pipes and manholes according to simulation time step Functions
- 15. 6th International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2016 ‘Integrative Risk Management – Towards Resilient Cities‘ • 28 Aug – 1 Sept 2016 • Davos • Switzerland www.grforum.org Application andutilization ofthedeveloped model
- 16. 6th International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2016 ‘Integrative Risk Management – Towards Resilient Cities‘ • 28 Aug – 1 Sept 2016 • Davos • Switzerland www.grforum.org Field survey of study area(Seocho-gu)
- 17. 6th International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2016 ‘Integrative Risk Management – Towards Resilient Cities‘ • 28 Aug – 1 Sept 2016 • Davos • Switzerland www.grforum.org Establishment of 3D schematic diagram from field survey
- 18. 6th International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2016 ‘Integrative Risk Management – Towards Resilient Cities‘ • 28 Aug – 1 Sept 2016 • Davos • Switzerland www.grforum.org Establishment of input data for ground inundation simulation
- 19. 6th International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2016 ‘Integrative Risk Management – Towards Resilient Cities‘ • 28 Aug – 1 Sept 2016 • Davos • Switzerland www.grforum.org Establishment of input data for underground inundation simulation Input data for underground inundation simulation The number of sub underground space : 28 The number of inlet : 12 The number of connected passage : 43 (including virtually connected passage)
- 20. 6th International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2016 ‘Integrative Risk Management – Towards Resilient Cities‘ • 28 Aug – 1 Sept 2016 • Davos • Switzerland www.grforum.org Results of inundation simulation(Seocho-gu) Simulation conditions : 30-year frequency rainfall, Cell size :30m, computation time step:10sec , Total computation time:80sec As a result, simulation result is good agreement with observed inundation area(red line) Results
- 21. 6th International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2016 ‘Integrative Risk Management – Towards Resilient Cities‘ • 28 Aug – 1 Sept 2016 • Davos • Switzerland www.grforum.org Results of underground space inundation simulation
- 22. 6th International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2016 ‘Integrative Risk Management – Towards Resilient Cities‘ • 28 Aug – 1 Sept 2016 • Davos • Switzerland www.grforum.org Application of developed inundation analysis model Comparison of the simulated and observed values Monitoring Results Locations of Monitoring Gauge Gangnamdaero(S1, #1) Samsung Elc.(S2, #2) Jinheung Apt.(S3, #3) # S Observed data : measured values at three points Pipe network : All pipes were not full.(about 90~95%) Ground flow : Near the Gangnamdaero and Samsung Elc. was inundated, near the Jinheung Apt. was not inundated. Observation
- 23. 6th International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2016 ‘Integrative Risk Management – Towards Resilient Cities‘ • 28 Aug – 1 Sept 2016 • Davos • Switzerland www.grforum.org At near the Gangnamdaero and Samgsung Elc. -Asaresultofsimulation,allpipeswerenotfull,butthegroundinundationhasoccurred -Inundation has occurred due to lack of capacityof grate inlet.Thisis the difference between the existingmodels(SWMM, Mike Urban) and the developed model(UFAM) At near the Jinheung Apt. -Asaresultofmonitoring,groundinundationhasnotoccurred.Asaresultofsimulation, somepipeswerefull,thegroundinundationhasoccurred. Application of developed inundation analysis model Comparison of the simulated and observed values Gangnamdaero Jingheung Apt.Samsung Elc. Sim. : 0.07m inundated Obs. : 0.06m inundated Sim. : 0.22m inundated Obs. : 0.19m inundated Sim. : 0.05m inundated Obs. : Not inundated
- 24. 6th International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2016 ‘Integrative Risk Management – Towards Resilient Cities‘ • 28 Aug – 1 Sept 2016 • Davos • Switzerland www.grforum.org Expected effects and utilizations of developed model Urban Flood Management System Smart Big Board Able to perform the inundation analysis for both ground and underground spaces Reduction of computation time by using 1-dimensional model Able to establish the real-time prediction-alert system Real-time inundation alert system in central and local government Results Expected effects and utilization
- 25. 6th International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2016 ‘Integrative Risk Management – Towards Resilient Cities‘ • 28 Aug – 1 Sept 2016 • Davos • Switzerland www.grforum.org
Hinweis der Redaktion
- Good afternoon everyone. I am Sengyong Choi from Korea. I am working in National Disaster Management Research Institute in Ministry of Public Safety and Security. MPSS is the control tower which manages the national disasters and accidents in Korea. NDMI belongs to the MPSS First of all, I am very pleasure to have the opportunity to present all of you. Today, I would like to talk about the development of urban flood analysis model for real-time urban flood forecasting and modeling.
- The contents are as follows. The first one is Causes of Urban Flood and damages cases. The second one is the overview of the urban flood analysis model development. The third one is development of urban flood analysis model. The last one is application and utilization of the developed model.
- Let’s see about the causes of urban flood and urban flood damage
- There are many causes of urban flooding. The first one is the urbanization. Impervious surface area is increasing due to urban development projects such as road paving and building construction. Because of the increment for the impervious area, runoff has also increased. And next one is the increment of the urban flood risk. Compared to the past, the risk for urban flooding has increased. So, once the urban flood damage occurred, the damage scale is greater than previously. The last one is climate change. As you can see in these figures, annual total rainfall and torrential rainfall are increasing. Also, many researchers are studying and arguing about the climate change. Nevertheless, climate change is a problem that we are facing already.
- Left figures show the Gangnam inundation in two thousands eleven. (Do you know Gangnam or Gangnam style? Yes, that is Gangnam. Gang means river. Nam is south region. So, Gangnam is southern part of river) Also, right videos show the inundation and landslide accident in Gangnam in two thousands eleven. At that time, more ten people died. In Korea, the urban flood damage occurs in almost every year.
- Let’s see about the overview of the urban flood analysis model development.
- Here are some problems of the urban flood management. Because of the temporal and spatial limits of radar and ground rain gages, The current rainfall forecast system for the urban flood management is unsuitable. And, there are no observation systems for the only urban flood management. Let’s see these figures. For example, Assuming that our goal is to find an elephant in the meadow. We have to use a appropriate telescope to find the elephant. We can not even find the elephant with too high magnification telescope. We can not even find the elephant with too low magnification telescope. Likewise, we have to use proper observing system for urban flood management. So, Currently in Korea, Research on the use of x-band radar for the urban flood management is being carried out. The main problem of the urban flood management is that there is no urban flood analysis model. So, Korea government is developing the urban flood analysis model for managing the urban flood.
- As I already mentioned in the previous slide, the background of this study are as follows. Despite of this situation, there is no inundation analysis model for the ground and underground spaces to manage the urban flooding. So, the objective of this study is to develop the integrated urban flood analysis model which can simulate the pipe network, surface inundation and underground inundation at the same time. And we can disseminate the real-time urban flooding risk information to the public using the developed model.
- I would like to introduce development of urban flood analysis model.
- This slide shows the development process and concept of integrated inundation analysis model being developed by NDMI. As you can see, the developed model consist of two parts of ground inundation analysis and underground inundation analysis . Actually, sewer network analysis belongs to the ground inundation analysis. In ground inundation analysis, we can perform the inundation and runoff analysis considering the drainage facilities like the sewer system, pump and the constructions such as building and road. In underground inundation analysis, We can perform the inundation analysis considering the underground entrance and stairs. Also, Two models are totally linked for the inundation analysis. And we are developing GUI version inundation analysis model based on GIS for user’s convenience.
- Here are the features of developed model. One of the some features for developed model is integrated analysis. And next one is a reflection of the various urban runoff elements. When the inundation analysis is performed, elements such as buildings, roads, river and rain gutters are considered. And we have developed the GUI version based on open GIS for convenience of users.
- This slide shows some functions of the developed GUI version inundation analysis model in the case of hydrological modeling for surface runoff analysis. We can check the simulation results such as the inundation depth, water surface elevation and runoff discharge through the GUI system. We can make from the simulation results to animations using the GUI system. And also, we can check the values of the simulation results.
- Also, the developed GUI version inundation analysis model has some functions as followings; We can check the simulation results for pipe network system through the GUI. We can check the information of the pipe network such as diameter, shape and length, etc. And also, we can check the risk degree of manholes and pipelines according to the simulation time(step) through the GUI.
- Also, GUI provides some graphs for simulation results. So, we can check the depth and water elevation of pipes and manholes according to simulation time step through the GUI. This figure show some graphs for simulation results.
- Let’s see about application and utilization of the developed model.
- So far, we have looked briefly for the developed model. From now, I would like to introduce the applications of developed model. Focusing on the applications process and simulation result. First of all, Seocho-gu basin was selected as study area for application. Seocho-gu basin belongs to Gangnam. As I already mentioned, urban flooding occurs every year in Gangnam. In Gangnam, big urban flooding occurred frequently in Seocho-gu basin. That’s the why to choose as the study area. We carried out field survey for collecting the raw data and making the input data for simulation.
- And also, we carried out field survey for underground space of Seoul Express Bus station. As you can see, we established three dimensional schematic diagram for underground from field survey And we made input data for inundation analysis of ground and underground space through basis data obtained from field survey.
- We need some data for simulation. DEM data, Rain gutter data, Subbasin and sewer network data, Building data, and road slope. So, we established the input data like this from the GIS maps.
- After field survey for underground space, We established input data for underground inundation simulation. Right figure shows the established input data. As you can see, Input data consist of sub underground space, inlet, connected passage.
- After establishing the all input data, we carried out simulation for ground an underground inundation analysis. Simulation conditions are as following; We used the 30-year frequency rainfall and cell size of thirty meters for simulation. The computation time step of ten seconds was used for simulation. It took eighty seconds to complete the simulation. This red line is area where it has been flooded in the past. As you can see, as a result, we could confirm that simulation result is good agreement with observed inundation area.
- This is simulated results for underground space. We can identify that inundated area are changed as time goes by. If we use more accurate input data, we can obtain the detailed simulation results.
- To verify the accuracy and validation of the developed model, We compared the simulated and observed values. The observed data was measured values by the installed water level gauges at three points in Seocho basin. The left figure shows the monitoring results. The right figure shows the locations of monitoring gague.
- At near the Gangnamdaero and Samgsung Elc. As a result of simulation, all pipes were not full, but the ground inundation has occurred Inundation has occurred due to lack of capacity of grate inlet. This is the difference between the existing models(SWMM, Mike Urban) and the developed model(UFAM) In the case of the existing models(SWMM, Mike Urban), Only when the pipe flow is full, inundation analysis is possible. At near the Jinheung Apt. As a result of monitoring, ground inundation has not occurred. As a result of simulation, some pipes were full, the ground inundation has occurred. Those figure show the observed and simulated values. As you can see in the figures, It can be seen that the simulated and observed values are good agreement.
- Expected effects and utilizations of the developed model are as followings; We can perform the inundation analysis for both ground and underground spaces unlike a existing model. We are able to establish the real-time prediction-alert system by reduction of computation time. So, we are developing the urban flood management system using the developed model. We can distribute the information for urban flood risk through this system. And also, we are developing the web based-system for monitoring and managing the disaster. We called it Smart Big Board(SBB). SBB collects the disaster information from the SNS(social network system) such as twitter, facebook, blog. So, we can check the disaster information in real time through this system. Also, We can check the dangerous area in real time through the system. The expected inundation maps have been created using the developed model. And we loaded the SBB with the expected inundation maps. So, we can check the inundation risk area through this system in advance.
- Thank you for your attentions. Do you have any question?