Davos_Presentation_Normatov

Modern adaptation approach of agriculture to the
5th International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2014
‘Integrative Risk Management - The role of science, technology & practice‘ • 24-28 August 2014 • Davos • Switzerland
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climate change and water reservoirs impact
Inom Normatov
Institute of Water problems, Hydropower and
Ecology of the Academy of Sciences
Tajikistan
IWPHE ASRT

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Problems
 Prompt growth of the population of the
Central Asia Region
 Shortages of the areas of arable lands
 Tailing dams with radioactive waste
 Floods, avalanches, landslides
 Degradation of Mountain Glaciers
 Influence of reservoirs on development
Agricultural grades

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Food Safety
I. growth of the population in Central Asia
II. shortage of arable lands
III. water reservoirs impact

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RADIOACTIVE WASTE TAILING DAMS
Transboundary impact
One of the most critical problems nowadays in the Region of Central Asia is
existence the tailing dams with radioactive waste.
The volume of uranium tailing wastes exceeds 100 Mln. t in Kyrgyzstan,
Uzbekistan and Tajikistan.
In the town of Mailu-Suu located in
the middle flow of Mailu-Suu
River (Syrdarya tributary) there
was extracted more 10 tons of
uranium concentrate for 22 years of
uranium deposit exploitation. Total
amount of accumulated in Mailu-
Suu radioactive waste is 2.0 Mln.
m3 with the total activity of
5∙104 Ku

In Tajikistan 93% of territory which occupied by Mountains the formation of
the Emergency situation such as Floods, Avalanches and Landslides is
observed more often – 2000 per year with great economical losses
June,
2002
June,
2003
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7055472
6066272
989200
General Panjikent Ajni
1
3
1
5
6
Panjikent Ajni
July
203
June-July, 2005
Total economical damage of
Ajni and Penjikent districts
in result of Floods of
2002-2005
Total human victims of flooding
in Ajni and Penjikent districts
(person)

The estimation of influence of Global
Climate Change on glaciers of
Tajikistan has shown that for all period
of observation since 1930 years the
total area of glaciations of the Tajikistan
was reduced approximately to one third
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Glaciers degradation of the Zarafshon River Basin

Possible changes of the Zeravshan River Basin glaciers
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by 2050

Reservoir Microclimate Agriculture
Hydroresources Coal Oil Gas
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Republic of Tajikistan:
Hydropower resources - 527 Bln. kWt∙h
Now used only - 5%
In perspective- construction many middle and
large HPS with reservoirs

For establishment influences of the climate change on
possible changes of Agroclimatic Resources
we spend the analyses of climatic parameters of three
districts with developed Agricultural branches
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(Dangara and Yavan) adjoined to
Nurek HPS with reservoirs.

28
27
26
25
After construction of the Nurek reservoir the return process in a trend of change of temperature is
observed. Change of temperature has increasing character during the winter period and decreases
during the summer period
28
27
26
25
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8
6
4
2
0
1960 1964 1968 1972 1976 1980
Temperature, C
24
1960 1964 1968 1972 1976 1980
Temperature, C
7.5
6.5
5.5
4.5
3.5
2.5
1981 1985 1989 1993 1997 2001
Temperature, C
24
1981 1985 1989 1993 1997 2001
Temperature, C

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District Index
Years
1968-1972 1995-2010
Temperature, C 15.3 16.4
Humidity, % 57.0 56.9
Precipitation, mm 570.5 598.5
Evaporation, mm 1196.7 1438.0
Humidity, % 61.6 55.2
Humidity, % 47.2 50.4

Average monthly temperatures of Vakhsh River water before
and after building of the Nurek reservoir,
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River-
Hydropost Periods
Month
I II III IV V VI VII
Vakhsh Sariguzar 1967-1971 2.0 4.0 8.1 11.5 13.2 14.4 15.0
Vakhsh Sariguzar 1972-1980 5.4 3.9 5.5 10.0 13.0 14.9 15.9
Difference -3.4 0.1 2.6 1.5 0.2 -0.5 -0.9

Mid-monthly temperature before and after building
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of the Nurek HPS

Dynamics of change of climatic parameters of
the agricultural region of Yavan (adjoining to
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Nurek Reservoir) for 1968-2010
Now for cultivation of agricultural lands still use old norms of irrigation. For
example, in Tajikistan for cultivation of cotton and Lucerne the following
norms of irrigation are established.
- Cotton - 1100 m3/ha
- Lucerne - 3000 m3/ha
However during 1968-2010 meteorological conditions essentially changed.
Temperature (oС) - 0.50
Humidity (%) - 7.20
Evaporation (%) - 17.00
Precipitation (%) - 11.00
Not the accounting of present climatic conditions leads to inefficient use of
irrigation water and Unproductive losses of water more than 40 Mln. m3 for
example in Yavan district of Tajikistan

Considering all foregoing in summary it is
necessary to note that for ensuring food security
it is necessary to develop the progressive
production technology of agricultural grades. It
is reached by:
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Production of Agriculture Foods
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Increase of
Agriculture lands
Productivity
Increase of Water
Productivity
Biotechnology + Selection of high
Productivity crops steady to stress
and Climate change

Added value for the Post 2015 Framework for
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Disaster Risk Reduction
The Hydrometeorological phenomena are the reason of the majority of
disasters. In the Zeravshan River Basin Zeravshan (Tajikistan),
emergency average more than 150 cases per year, or about 7% of total
on all territory of the republic. The flood of more notable scale was
observed in 2012 with the general economic damage 4.66 Mln. USD
and in 2002 with economic damage more than 1.0 Mln. USD.
• If when determining the long-term forecast of Meteorological
conditions of the basin it is important average value of
meteorological parameters of the long-term period, for an
assessment and possibility of predictions of emergency weather
situations the analysis and generalization of their values for shorter
periods (seasonal, decade and daily) arises.
• The present work is a platform for development of optimum
mechanisms and algorithms of predicting of emergencies in
mountain districts based on generalization and systematization of
meteorological parameters.

Added value for the Post 2015 Framework for
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Disaster Risk Reduction
research:
At present unfortunately did not set the relationship of cause and consequence of natural
phenomena, which include natural disasters. Humanity while tests only consequences of emergencies.
To get closer to solution of natural disasters and to take adequate measures to prevent and thereby
reduce to a minimum the risk of adverse effects and need a large-scale and multidisciplinary study of all
aspects of the disasters and emergencies with a broad range of disciplines and research areas. Thus,
the present state of human knowledge about natural disasters gain stimulates research in this direction
education and training:
This aspect too is important, but not so as scientific research. Usually in trainings and
occupations cases of natural disasters, their scales and the related economic damages are considered.
However, the actual problem of the present and the near future is predicting of a place and time of
emergence of natural disasters.
implementation and training:
This section is very important. Introduction of the last achievements of science and
technology on decrease in risk of natural disasters promotes rescue of human life and to essential
decrease in the extent of economic damage. Preparation of special divisions and local population for
rules of behaviour at natural disasters pledge of considerable reduction of degree of risk.
policy dialogue:
Political dialogue starts playing a role when objects posing threat of natural disasters have
cross-border character (the large industrial enterprises, the chemical and biological companies, nuclear
power plants, storage with radioactive and chemical waste and others).

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Thank You for Yours Attention
Inom Normatov
Institute of Water problems, Hydropower
and Ecology of the Academy of Sciences of the
Republic of Tajikistan
E-mail: inomnor@gmail.com
normatov58@mail.ru
Phone: +992 93 445 07 57 (mob)

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