A Multi-objective Goal Programming Approach for Locating Emergency Shelters under Damage Uncertainty, Ashish TRIVEDI
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This document summarizes a presentation on developing a multi-objective goal programming model for locating emergency shelters during disasters. It discusses factors to consider in shelter site selection like terrain, infrastructure, and proximity. A model is proposed with objectives of maximizing site suitability weights, minimizing distances for households and number of sites. Constraints include capacity, demand, utilization and proximity. The model formulation and sample results demonstrating shelter site and household allocations under scenarios are presented. The work contributes to more resilient disaster planning through integrated shelter location optimization.
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A Multi-objective Goal Programming Approach for Locating Emergency Shelters under Damage Uncertainty, Ashish TRIVEDI
- 1. 6th International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2016 ‘Integrative Risk Management – Towards Resilient Cities‘ • 28 Aug – 1 Sept 2016 • Davos • Switzerland www.grforum.org A multi-objective goal programming approach for locating emergency shelters under damage uncertainty Ashish Trivedi Amol Singh Indian Institute of Management Rohtak, India
- 2. 6th International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2016 ‘Integrative Risk Management – Towards Resilient Cities‘ • 28 Aug – 1 Sept 2016 • Davos • Switzerland www.grforum.org Agenda • Significance of earthquakes • Shelter management • Location planning • Factors • Proposed model • Implications and contributions
- 3. 6th International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2016 ‘Integrative Risk Management – Towards Resilient Cities‘ • 28 Aug – 1 Sept 2016 • Davos • Switzerland www.grforum.org Devastating Disasters
- 4. 6th International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2016 ‘Integrative Risk Management – Towards Resilient Cities‘ • 28 Aug – 1 Sept 2016 • Davos • Switzerland www.grforum.org Natural disasters’ trend Source: EM-DAT
- 5. 6th International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2016 ‘Integrative Risk Management – Towards Resilient Cities‘ • 28 Aug – 1 Sept 2016 • Davos • Switzerland www.grforum.org Earthquakes’ trend Source: EM-DAT
- 6. 6th International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2016 ‘Integrative Risk Management – Towards Resilient Cities‘ • 28 Aug – 1 Sept 2016 • Davos • Switzerland www.grforum.org Shelter planning • Emergency Shelter: Provision of basic and immediate shelter needs necessary to ensure the survival of disaster affected persons, including rapid response solutions such as tents, insulation materials, other temporary emergency shelter solutions and shelter related non-food items” (Memorandum of Understanding between IFRC and UN OCHA). • Promote self-recovery and early recovery of those affected. • complex natural disasters with prolonged mass displacement
- 7. 6th International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2016 ‘Integrative Risk Management – Towards Resilient Cities‘ • 28 Aug – 1 Sept 2016 • Davos • Switzerland www.grforum.org Why Shelters? • Sphere Project • Shelter and settlement standard 1: strategic planning Existing shelter and settlement solutions are prioritised through the return or hosting of disaster affected households, and the security, health, safety and well-being of the affected population are ensured.
- 8. 6th International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2016 ‘Integrative Risk Management – Towards Resilient Cities‘ • 28 Aug – 1 Sept 2016 • Davos • Switzerland www.grforum.org • Shelters provide safety, security, climate protection, and resistance to disease and ill health. • Shelter provision and performance is not up to the mark & poor location selection is one of the reasons for the same. • Selection of a suitable site for locating shelters from potential alternatives is of critical importance.
- 9. 6th International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2016 ‘Integrative Risk Management – Towards Resilient Cities‘ • 28 Aug – 1 Sept 2016 • Davos • Switzerland www.grforum.org Classification of shelters Types of shelters Unplanned Urban self settlement Self settled camps Planned Temporary shelters Core shelters
- 10. 6th International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2016 ‘Integrative Risk Management – Towards Resilient Cities‘ • 28 Aug – 1 Sept 2016 • Davos • Switzerland www.grforum.org Factors considered Criteria Sub-criteria Favourability of terrain Soil hardness Topography Slope Presence of trees Wood/timber availability for construction purposes Electrical infrastructure Electricity Telecommunication facility Hygiene and sanitary system Drinking water Drainage system & sewage infrastructure Solid waste disposal Burial/cremation sites Community infrastructure Educational facilities Recreational facilities
- 11. 6th International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2016 ‘Integrative Risk Management – Towards Resilient Cities‘ • 28 Aug – 1 Sept 2016 • Davos • Switzerland www.grforum.org Factors continued.. Safety and security Access to livelihood Livestock accommodation Fire safety Safety from landslides, flooding, etc. Warning systems Transportation capacity Air traffic handling Condition of local road infrastructure Proximity Distance from market/warehouses Distance from main roads Distance from healthcare facility Distance from transportation hubs Distance from Disaster debris storage sites Type of ownership
- 12. 6th International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2016 ‘Integrative Risk Management – Towards Resilient Cities‘ • 28 Aug – 1 Sept 2016 • Davos • Switzerland www.grforum.org Proposed model objectives • Maximization of weights assigned to candidate sites based on subjective evaluation criteria. • Minimization of total distance covered by affected households. • Minimization of number of households who are not provided shelters. • Minimization of the number of shelter sites.
- 13. 6th International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2016 ‘Integrative Risk Management – Towards Resilient Cities‘ • 28 Aug – 1 Sept 2016 • Davos • Switzerland www.grforum.org constraints • Capacity constraints • Demand constraints • Utilization constraints • Threshold proximity constraints
- 14. 6th International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2016 ‘Integrative Risk Management – Towards Resilient Cities‘ • 28 Aug – 1 Sept 2016 • Davos • Switzerland www.grforum.org Illustration & results scen ario (no. of hous ehol ds) S1 S2 S3 S4 S5 S6 S7 S8 S9 S10 S11 S12 S13 500 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1000 1 0 1 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 1500 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 0 1 0 1 1 0 2000 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 0 1 1 1
- 15. 6th International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2016 ‘Integrative Risk Management – Towards Resilient Cities‘ • 28 Aug – 1 Sept 2016 • Davos • Switzerland www.grforum.org cluster site S1 S2 S3 S4 S5 S6 S7 S8 S9 S10 S11 S12 S13 C1 22 0 0 0 125 63 8 0 0 0 0 0 0 C2 52 30 8 19 0 0 0 0 0 0 16 0 13 C3 40 0 0 0 0 0 16 13 34 0 0 0 0 C4 25 0 0 0 21 0 11 0 4 0 0 0 0 C5 17 8 52 19 0 0 0 0 0 0 38 38 0 C6 457 0 0 0 2 0 0 0 0 0 3 0 0
- 16. 6th International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2016 ‘Integrative Risk Management – Towards Resilient Cities‘ • 28 Aug – 1 Sept 2016 • Davos • Switzerland www.grforum.org ADDED VALUE FOR INTEGRATIVE RISK MANAGEMENT AND URBAN RESILIENCE • This study proposes a decision model to prepare hazard prone societies in becoming more resilient against disasters. • The present work contributes towards the realisation of sustainable development and recovery of affected community as temporary shelter locations play a significant role in speedy rehabilitation in a post disaster situation. • Address of multiple objectives while planning for shelter locations
- 17. 6th International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2016 ‘Integrative Risk Management – Towards Resilient Cities‘ • 28 Aug – 1 Sept 2016 • Davos • Switzerland www.grforum.org Goal programming model Sets • 𝐼 : set of clusters affected • 𝐽 : set of candidate shelter locations • 𝐾 : set of objectives • 𝑆 ∶ set of scenarios Decision Variables • 𝑦𝑗 : Binary variable, 1 if site 𝑗 is selected as shelter area, 0 otherwise • 𝑋𝑖𝑗 : Binary variable, 1 if people from cluster 𝑖 can be relocated to site 𝑗, 0 otherwise • 𝑛𝑖𝑗 : Number of households moved from cluster 𝑖 to site 𝑗 • 𝑑 𝑘 + : Over-achievement of goal 𝑘 • 𝑑 𝑘 − : Under-achievement of goal 𝑘
- 18. 6th International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2016 ‘Integrative Risk Management – Towards Resilient Cities‘ • 28 Aug – 1 Sept 2016 • Davos • Switzerland www.grforum.org Parameters • 𝑤𝑗 : Weight of shelter sites based on subjective factors • 𝑑𝑖𝑗: Distance between shelter sites and clusters • 𝐶𝑗 : Capacity of shelter site (number of households) • 𝐷𝑖𝑠 : Number of affected household at cluster 𝑖 under scenario s • 𝐷𝐻𝑗 : Distance of site 𝑗 to nearest healthcare facility • 𝐷𝑊𝑗 : Distance of site 𝑗 to nearest relief warehouse/market • 𝑇𝐷ℎ : Threshold distance to nearest healthcare facility • 𝑇𝐷 𝑤 : Threshold distance to nearest relief warehouse/market • 𝛽 : Threshold value for minimum utilization of shelter site capacity • 𝐺 𝑘 + : Ideal value for goal 𝑘 • 𝐺 𝑘 − : Anti-ideal value for goal 𝑘 • U : Number of households not getting shelters • 𝑤 𝑘 𝑔 : Weight associated with goal 𝑘 • 𝑝𝑠 : probability of scenario s
- 19. 6th International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2016 ‘Integrative Risk Management – Towards Resilient Cities‘ • 28 Aug – 1 Sept 2016 • Davos • Switzerland www.grforum.org Formulation • Minimize 𝑍 = 𝑘 𝑑 𝑘 ∗ ×𝑤 𝑘 𝑔 𝐺 𝑘 +−𝐺 𝑘 − • Where 𝑑 𝑘 ∗ = 𝑑 𝑘 − 𝑓𝑜𝑟 𝑚𝑎𝑥𝑖𝑚𝑖𝑧𝑎𝑡𝑖𝑜𝑛 𝑔𝑜𝑎𝑙; 𝑎𝑛𝑑 𝑑 𝑘 + 𝑓𝑜𝑟 𝑚𝑖𝑛𝑖𝑚𝑖𝑧𝑎𝑡𝑖𝑜𝑛 𝑔𝑜𝑎𝑙 • Subject to: • 𝑗 𝑦𝑗 𝑤𝑗 + 𝑑1 − − 𝑑1 + = 𝐺1 + • 𝑖 𝑗 𝑛𝑖𝑗𝑠 𝑑𝑖𝑗 + 𝑑2 − − 𝑑2 + = 𝐺2 + • 𝑈 + 𝑑3 − − 𝑑3 + = 𝐺3 + • 𝑗 𝑦𝑗 + 𝑑4 − − 𝑑4 + = 𝐺4 + • 𝑖 𝑛𝑖𝑗𝑠 ≤ 𝑦𝑗 𝐶𝑗 Ɐ 𝑗, 𝑠 • 𝑗 𝑛𝑖𝑗𝑠 ≤ 𝐷𝑖𝑠 Ɐ 𝑖, 𝑠 • 𝑖 𝑗 𝑛𝑖𝑗 𝑠 + 𝑈 = 𝑖 𝐷𝑖𝑠
- 20. 6th International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2016 ‘Integrative Risk Management – Towards Resilient Cities‘ • 28 Aug – 1 Sept 2016 • Davos • Switzerland www.grforum.org • 𝑖 𝑋𝑖𝑗 ≤ 𝑦𝑗 𝑀 Ɐ 𝑗 • 𝑖 𝑋𝑖𝑗 ≥ 𝑦𝑗 Ɐ 𝑗 • 𝑛𝑖𝑗𝑠 ≤ 𝑋𝑖𝑗 𝑀 Ɐ 𝑖, 𝑗, 𝑠 • 𝑖 𝑛 𝑖𝑗𝑠 𝐶 𝑗 ≥ 𝑦𝑗× 𝛽 Ɐ 𝑗 • 𝑦𝑗 × 𝐷𝐻𝑗 ≤ 𝑇𝐷 𝐻 Ɐ 𝑗 • 𝑦𝑗 × 𝐷𝑊𝑗 ≤ 𝑇𝐷 𝑊 Ɐ 𝑗 • 𝑗 𝑋𝑖𝑗 ≥ 1 Ɐ 𝑖 • 𝑋𝑖𝑗, 𝑦𝑗 = 𝐵𝑖𝑛𝑎𝑟𝑦 • 𝑛𝑖𝑗 = 𝐼𝑛𝑡𝑒𝑔𝑒𝑟 • 𝑀 = 𝐵𝑖𝑔 𝑛𝑢𝑚𝑏𝑒𝑟
- 21. 6th International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2016 ‘Integrative Risk Management – Towards Resilient Cities‘ • 28 Aug – 1 Sept 2016 • Davos • Switzerland www.grforum.org Thank you Questions