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Monetization in the US and China: Where to Invest

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In this presentation, GGV Capital Managing Partner Hany Nada analyzes the differences in the US and China advertising markets, areas of opportunity and other methods of monetization.

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Monetization in the US and China: Where to Invest

  1. Monetization Across the US & China: Where to Invest Hany Nada Managing Partner, GGV Capital
  2. Ad Gap ? An Investors perspective….
  3. 2015 US Advertising Market • Total Ad Spend $190B • US Population 320M • 81% Urban • GDP $17.5T • GDP/capita $55k • Consumption/capita $32k $70B $53B $17B TV Internet Newspaper Radio Magazines Outdoor Other *McKinsey and World Bank
  4. 2015 China Advertising Market • Total Ad Spend $68B • China Population 1.4B • 55% Urban • GDP $10.4T • GDP/Capita $8k • Consumption/capita $2.5k $23B $21B $9B TV Internet Newspaper Radio Outdoor Other *McKinsey and World Bank
  5. The Ad Gap US $190B Heavy TV and internet $55k $32k (60% of GDP) $595 per cap China $68B (36% of US) Heavy TV and internet $8k (15% of US) $2k (6% of US) $48 per cap (8% of US) Ad Spend Mix GDP/Capita Consumption/User Ad Spend per User
  6. The Ad Gap (urban to urban) US $190B $68k $45k $733 per cap China $71B (36% of US) $13k (20% of US) $4.5k (10% of US) $88 per cap (12% of US) Ad Spend Urban GDP/Capita Consumption/Cap Ad Spend per Cap
  7. Online?!? Ad Gap ? An Investors perspective….
  8. US: Desktop & Mobile Ad Spend $32.44 $31.58 $29.89 $26.59 $24.96 $25.17 $25.35 $10.67 $19.15 $28.72 $40.50 $49.81 $57.78 $65.87 2013 2014 2015E 2016E 2017E 2018E 2019E US Digital Ad Spending ($ Billions) Desktop Mobile (Includes Tablet) Mobile ad spend in the US will exceed $28B and overtake desktop ad spend in 2016 as Desktop stalls and declines. Source: eMarketer, March 2015.
  9. China: Ad Spend Mobile ad Spend continues to accelerate, In Billions $ Source: eMarketer, March 2015. - 20 40 60 80 100 120 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 Total Ad Spend Digital Spend Mobile Spend
  10. The Internet Ad Gap US 280M (88% of pop) 203M $57B $28B $205 $137 China 700M (50% of pop) 680M $26B (52% of US) $14B (50% of US) $37 (18% of US) $21 (15% of US) Internet Population Mobile Users Internet Ad Spend Mobile Ad $/Internet User $/Mobile user
  11. Other Methods of Monetization
  12. Standard Monetization Advertising Subscriptions Microtransactions Subscriber for serviceBrand or Direct Marketing Virtual Item or service micro pay per item Advertising has had a long rich history in the US while Microtransactions models were perfected by Chinese game companies.
  13. Business Models of US & China Leaders Advertising Subscriptions Microtransactions Advertising Subscriptions Microtransactions Note (1) Value Added Services (VAS) = in-app transactions such as virtual currency/gifts and non-subscription digital transactions or fees of any kind. Note (2) Reflects dominant (>90% of revenue) business model for each company shown. Logos are shown in more than 1 category if company derives material revenue from multiple business models.
  14. US: Comparing Quarterly ARPU Advertising Subscriptions Microtransactions Q2 2015 Subscription Revenue per Subscriber $15.20 $23.97 $24.21 $26.52 $0.00 $20.00 $40.00 Q2 2015 Spotify Total Revenue / Subscriber Hulu Rev / Subscriber Hulu Sub Rev / Subscriber Pandora Sub Rev / Subscriber Sources: SEC Filings, Company website, press releases, GGV estimates of average subscription price (if more than 1 price). Note: Quarterly subscriber count used is average of current quarter and prior quarter (estimated mid-point of quarter). Note: Excludes Hulu in the “Advertising” section even >50% of its revenue comes from advertising because it did not report MAU figures. Q2 2015 Advertising Revenue per Active User $0.61 $1.59 $2.07 $2.61 $2.91 $8.63 $0.00 $2.00 $4.00 $6.00 $8.00 $10.00 Q2 2015 Facebook Ad Rev / Active User (US & Canada) Pandora Ad Rev / Active User Facebook Ad Rev / Active User (Worldwide) Yahoo Ad Rev / Mobile Monthly Active Twitter Ad Rev / Monthly Active User Q2 2015 VAS Revenue per User $1.46 $2.62 $0.00 $1.00 $2.00 $3.00 Q2 2015 Zynga VAS Rev / Monthly Unique Users King Rev / Monthly Unique Users In the US, not surprisingly, subscription-based models as represented by Spotify, Netflix and Hulu have the highest ARPUs, at about $100/user/year ($25/quarter). Ad ARPUs are typically <$12/user/year (<$3/quarter), with the exception of Facebook’s US/Canada user base, which is worth over $34 ($8.63/quarter).
  15. US: Median Yearly ARPU Advertising Subscriptions Microtransactions $100-$150$12-$15 $10-$50 The most predictable revenue per user is Subscription but its hard to get subscribers
  16. In China, ARPU of paid users for commerce or value-added services on content platforms is very high, ranging from about $24/user/year ($6/quarter) to over $400/year ($116/quarter) for YY’s dating subscription product, far exceeding the same monetization model in the US. Advertising ARPU, except on Baidu, lags significantly behind US platforms. Subscription ARPU is also understandably lower given the lower price points vs. US online video platforms. $0.36 $0.43 $0.68 $0.72 $0.76 $4.03 $0.00 $2.00 $4.00 $6.00 1 Baidu Ad Rev / Mobile Search MAU Tencent Ad Rev / QQ MAU Sina Ad Rev / MAU Sohu Ad Rev / MAU Netease Ad Rev / Est. Email MAU Youku Ad Rev / MAU China: Comparing ARPU by Model Advertising Subscriptions Microtransactions Q2 2015 Subscription Revenue per Subscriber Q2 2015 Advertising Revenue per Active User Q2 2015 VAS Revenue per User (1) Source: SEC, Company reports, Comscore, GGV traffic estimates based on historical performance. Note: Value Added Services (VAS) = in-app transactions such as virtual currency/gifts and non-subscription digital transactions or fees of any kind. Note: Quarterly subscriber count used is average of current quarter and prior quarter (estimated mid-point of quarter. Note: (1) Figures are from Q4 2014 as email registration figures have not been reported for 2015. $7.04 $7.04 $9.38 $29.17 $0.00 $100.00 1 YY Subs & Broadcasting Revenue / Paid Users in Category YY Quarterly Equivalent of Monthly Sub Fee Youku Quarterly Equivalent of Monthly Sub Fee IQiyi Quarterly Equivalent of Monthly Sub Fee $5.94 $26.58 $26.97 $53.55 $67.00 $68.90 $115.7 3 $0.00 $50.00 $100.00 $150.00 1 YY Dating VAS / Subs YY Games VAS / Subs YY Online Music & Entertainment VAS / Subs Tencent MMPORG ARPU Tencent Casual Games ARPU Tencent Wechat/QQ Games ARPU Sohu Game Rev / Changyou MAU
  17. China: Median Yearly ARPU Advertising Subscriptions Microtransactions $30-$70$3-$7 $100-$400 Which would you choose
  18. A Monetization Eco-System 18 Minnows Segmentation + Tools = Data you can act on to maximize your revenue potential DolphinsWhales Give Whales special Access Reward Dolphins to keep them engaged and loyal Monetize Minnows by allowing them to extend fan base
  19. Kickstarter breakdown Whales- 48% of raise 949 Fans/4% of base Range of contribution $300-$10,000 Signed album+ book+ surprise gift “Veblen” Goods Dolphins- 49% of raise 13k Fans/ % of base Offers: $25-$125 “positional goods” Minnows- 3% of raise 11k Fans/45% of base Offers: Free-$5 Facilitates Dolphins and Whales $540k $550k $37k 949 Fans 4% 13k Fans 51% 11k Fans 45%
  20. Questions • Does E-commerce have a negative effect on advertising? • Does data make brand advertisers behave like direct marketers? • What is the effect of RTB platforms on CPMs? • In an ROI world, do we need humans? • If you are starting a digital media company today, what monetization method would you choose ?

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