JUST two months on from our last review, the mood in cereal markets has shifted markedly from bear to bull – for the short term at least. The over-riding influence has been events in the former Soviet Union, where the risk of political upheaval turning to military conflict cast a shadow over grain exports from this important supplying region.

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2. GFMT’s market analyst
John Buckley reviews world
trading conditions which are
impacting the full range of
commodities used in food
and feed production. His
observations will influence
your decision-making.
A much bigger jump has been
seen in world wheat trade,
up 11m tonnes or almost 8%
to a new record 158.5m.
Much of that increase is down
to China (+5.5m) and Egypt
(+2m, catching up from a
difficult financing period after
the ‘Arab Spring’). However,
wheat trade has quietened
down considerably in recent
weeks, probably due to the
unexpected price rises.
Ukraine impact on cereal
trade probably exaggerated
J
UST two months on from our last review, the mood in cereal markets has shifted
markedly from bear to bull – for the short term at least. The over-riding influence has
been events in the former Soviet Union, where the risk of political upheaval turning to
military conflict cast a shadow over grain exports from this important supplying region.
Russia is the world’s fifth largest wheat exporter, Ukraine sixth. Combined they account for
about 17.5% of world trade in this grain. Ukraine’s importance in the maize market is even more
pivotal – third largest exporter. Along with Russia (number five for this grain) it accounts for 19%
of world exports. In the barley market too, these two countries are key players, jostling for joint
number three place on the export list accounting for almost a quarter of world trade. Neither
must we forget the region’s increasing importance in the oilseed market. FSU sunflowerseed
output, dominated by these two countries, accounts for well over half the world supply. Even
in the rapeseed market they supply over 6% of world output and play a much larger role in
supplying their near neighbours in the EU.
Concerns about the impact of the Russian intervention in Crimea have focused on three
main issues – 1) the risk – if hostilities escalated into outright military conflict (perhaps lower
now as we go to press) of disruption to shipping; 2) conflict interfering with spring planting of
Ukraine’s maize and oilseed crops, 3) the collapsing Ukrainian currency raising the cost and
reducing the use of imported agro-chemical inputs, implying lower yields. Peripheral to some
of these issues are the risks that western sanctions might also interfere with FSU cereal export
trade (seen unlikely at this stage) and/or that this whole tangle of factors will be detrimental to
the FSU’s long-cherished plans to expand grain exports – not only to its traditional big customer
base in the Middle-east North Africa (MENA) area but to other regions like southeast Asia.
As far as issue No 1) goes, there has been no discernible impact on export shipments to date,
albeit a tendency for some importers to start looking cautiously elsewhere for their supplies. In
the season to date, Ukraine has just reported total grain exports of 26.7m tonnes – up 37.5% on
last year’s including a record 15.84m tonnes of corn and 7.44m wheat. As recently as mid-March,
they were still exporting as much as 760,000 tonnes of grain, largely corn, a week. Russian exports
have also remained well ahead of last year’s at 19.36m to date including 14.29m wheat, 2.78m
tonnes of corn and 2.05m tonnes of barley. Even in the period of recent greatest tension (March
1-12) they actually shipped 263,000 of corn and 212,000 tonnes of wheat – so no slowdown
yet. Given full season projections for Russia to export 17.5m tonnes of wheat and 3m corn,
Ukraine 10m wheat
and 18.5m corn, it
can also be seen
that both countries
have already gone
well past their peak
marketing period and,
for wheat especially,
are now on the
home run – hostilities
notwithstanding.
GRAIN&FEED MILLING TECHNOLOGY38 | COMMODITIES

3. FSU planting of spring grains and oilseeds (issue No 2) is meanwhile
proceeding normally in both the affected countries and, according to
recent reports, Ukraine has not yet had problems acquiring adequate
seed or agrochemicals (issue no 3).
It’s also interesting to note that despite a lot of reports about
drought in parts of Ukraine and Russia (the ‘European’ Black Sea
Basin has seen 50% of normal winter rain), both countries agriculture
ministries are reporting crops in better condition than last year. Some
local observers suggest that the potential yield bonus might even make
up for the fact that both sowed less winter wheat than intended (and
less than last year) due to heavy rains last autumn.
While the bottom line to all this, at this stage at least, is FSU grain
export ‘business as usual,’ markets are understandably jittery about
where the politics could lead and what effects there might be down
the road. Nobody knows but ‘nature abhors a vacuum’ as they say
and the funds and other speculative interests have been only too keen
to step into it and invest in higher wheat and maize prices – helping
to bring about a self-fulfilling prophecy. On the bellwether Chicago
futures exchange, funds recently raised their long bets (on prices rising)
to 209,600 contracts for maize – equivalent to 26.6m tonnes. They
even went long on wheat to the tune of 10,500 lots after months of
selling it short (gambling on price falls).
What impact has this had on cereal prices? On the CBOT wheat
market, it has, perhaps surprisingly (given the lower level of fund
buying and the fact that wheat shipments are far less at risk than
those of maize) had a far greater firming effect than for maize. The
front month for wheat in Chicago, for example has risen by over 30%
or the equivalent of more than $60 per tonne from its late January
March - April 2014 | 39GRAIN&FEED MILLING TECHNOLOGY
years had to pass for him to discover such
things. In other words, everything started
14 to 15,000 years ago when humans, first
having lived as a wanderer, eventually set-
tled down and started agriculture. This new
beginning is called the Neolithic Revolution
by archeologists and historians.
Southeastern Anatolia
All of these have been proven to be true by
the archeologists excavating in Southeastern
Anatolia Region within the body of GAP
(Southeastern Anatolia Project).
The excavations in Hallan Çemi, Çayönü,
Göbekli Tepe, Nevali Çori, Körtiktepe, Mezra
Teleilat, Gürcütepe and Diyarbakır Çayönü
give us some information including another
meaning to the term ‘neolithic’. These exca-
vations also claim that farmers first began to
emerge gradually about 14,000 years ago.
Mehmet Özdoğan, an expert of this field,
suggests that:
“Briefly, the Neolithic period reflects the
period of reformation in the areas such as
nutrition, technology and lifestyle.
“In the basis of these reforms, this period
was a kind of revolution lasting from 12,000
to 6000 BC. The beginning of this period
was mainly associated with the disappear-
ance of what Last Ice Age caused and the
appearance of today’s climates. Throughout
the world, people tried to adapt themselves
to these changing climatic conditions with
the help of technology and their social habits.
“However, this revolution was a different
one in some regions of the Near East when
compared to the rest of the world. Thus, a
new lifestyle came into being affecting the
entire world.”
March - April 2014 | 11GRAIN&FEED MILLING TECHNOLOGY
Corporate Banner (190x132mm)(outlines)_Layout 1 23/12/2013 08:54 Page 1
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4. lows, reaching its highest level since April last year.
The wheat contract has also had some support from the poor
condition of the US winter wheat crops after another dry winter in
the Southern Plains (main source of hard red bread wheat) and some
extremely harsh weather across the Midwest, including damp and
cold in the soft red winter belt. Crops are not as bad as last year’s but
they are worse than expected earlier. Wheat does have a legendary
capacity to recover when the weather improves and hopefully some
of that loss of yield potential will be made up by a larger sown area.
US spring wheat area is also expected to rise quite sharply (by about
16%, according to one recent private estimate), which is promising
for quality wheat buyers.
The EU wheat market has also risen sharply in response to the
Ukrainian crisis, speculative buying and the knock-on effect of price
rises across the Atlantic. Here the increase is closer to 12% from
the January lows although that was still enough to put Paris milling
wheat futures at their own 11-month high. European wheat market
sentiment has been responsive to the Black Sea situation because of
the dependence on maize imports from this region to supplement
grain supply in the feed sector, allowing Europe to continue exporting
record amounts of wheat. The last figures we have for this trade
show total EU wheat export licences issued this season recently
reached 21.3m tonnes – a staggering 50% increase on this time last
year (14.2m). That’s well ahead of forecasts from bodies like the
USDA for an increase of less than 22%. EU maize import licenses
have meanwhile soared 13% on the year to 9.3m tonnes, already in
sight of realising the USDA’s full season forecasts of 10.5m tonnes
(which would actually be 7.5% down from last season.)
Will wheat prices continue to rise? Certainly the funds have the
muscle, if supply fundamentals look encouraging enough, to help push
the market higher. However, there seems little justification for that at
this stage, especially with another big crop on the way. The respected
US analysts AgResource recently estimated this at almost 714m
tonnes, just over last year’s. Given some dry weather issues in East/
Central Europe, the FSU, the US and West Australia, that may look
a bit optimistic. However, we might remember that last year’s world
wheat crop was initially seen rising to only 680m tonnes (International
Grains Council) yet ended up between 708/713m.
Looking across the main producing countries, Europe itself has just
been predicted by French analysts Strategie Grains, to raise its soft
wheat crop by 2% this year to 137.7m tonnes. The US expects to grow
3.4% more at 60m tonnes (government body FAPRI). As a big Kazakh
crop offsets some trimming of Russian and Ukrainian production, total
FSU output should not be far off last year’s large total of around 104m
tones. India is heading for a record crop of perhaps 95m. China has no
serious problems and may cap several years of record output (122m
last year) with another big crop. Canada may sow less after producing
rather too much last year but will carry in very large stocks. Overall,
world wheat stocks carried in from this season will be up by about
8m tonnes although the US and Europe will be relatively low stocked
compared with recent years, so favourable weather for their crops
in the rest of the growing season will be important.
Wheat prices might also be reined in by demand slowing in the face
of larger maize supplies and feed consumers’ response to relatively far
higher wheat prices. Since March 2013, maize prices have collapsed
by a third whereas the recent strength in the wheat market puts it
on a par to slightly dearer than this time last year. Still, the USDA
estimates that world wheat consumption will finish up 4.5% higher
this season despite a near 24m hike in use of maize with the latter’s
recovering crop.
A much bigger jump has been seen in world wheat trade, up 11m
tonnes or almost 8% to a new record 158.5m. Much of that increase
is down to China (+5.5m) and Egypt (+2m, catching up from a difficult
financing period after the ‘Arab Spring’). However, wheat trade has
quietened down considerably in recent weeks, probably due to the
unexpected price rises.
CBOT futures markets suggest soft wheat will still be relatively dear
in first quarter 2015, around $7.35/bu or about $270/tonne although
FAPRI recently was far more bearish on the outlook, forecasting a
seasonal average for 2014/15 of just $5.55/bu (under $205/t).
Maize supply prospects also good
Although cheaper than a year ago, maize prices have risen by about
13% since our last review on speculative buying linked to the Ukrainian
situation and in recognition of a stronger than expected pace of US
export trade (probably at least partially linked to the latter).
The global suypply outlook for maize remains fairly promising.
Drought and heatwaves in Brazil do not seem to have affected the
world’s second largest exporter as much as earlier feared and while
less has been sown regionally this year, the crop now starting harvest
should be around 94m for Brazil and Argentina combined. That’s down
13.5m from last year but still larger than the long-term average for the
third year in a row. Russia and Ukraine should again produce larger
than normal crops to maintain a wider choice of suppliers on the
world market, keeping US exporters on their mettle. In the US itself,
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6. the first planting estimates for 2014 are just being released,
ranging around 91-92m acres which, with normal harvest
ratios and yields close to last year’s would imply a crop of
around 330/335m tonnes, maybe a bit more. That could
imply modest stock drawdown if demand stayed at this
season’s level but the impact is cushioned by this season’s
huge crop leaving carryover stocks about 16m tonnes higher.
For Europe, Strategie Grains is forecasting a possible corn
crop of 65.2m tonnes which would be very close to last
year’s. If the EU wants to go on using larger quantities of
corn in feeds (up 4m this season at a record 73.5m tonnes,
it will need to continue making large imports from Ukraine
and other suppliers.
The first world crop estimates are also starting to appear
with AgResource estimating an 11m tonne increase from
this season’s 967.5m. Based on another year of big supplies
and big demand, CBOT maize prices are pointing to similar
levels in early 2015 to those ruling now (around $4.90/bu,
$193/t). FAPRI is againmore bearish looking for a seasonal
average of $4.17 ex-farm for 2014/15 and a round $4 ($157/t)
for 2015/16.
Oilmeal price rises should deflate
SOYA and other oilmeal costs have risen since our last
review despite the overall outlook for abundant supplies
and global buildip of oil-bearing raw materials. Several
factors lay behind the price increases, including smaller
than expected Brazilian soyabean output, strong Chinese
demand for soyabeans, a drought threat to palm oil supplies
and fears that the Ukrainian crisis might disrupt sunflower
and rapeseed product exports from these two important
sources. However, cheaper prices are indicated on the
forward futures markets as well as by the FAPRI report
mentioned above.
The latest USDA forecasts suggest soyabean output alone
will still rise this season by 15m to 18m tonnes, depending
whether Brazil gets 85m or 88m (versus last year’s previous
record 82m). Although Brazil and Paraguay endured some
drought/heat damage at the tail end of the growing season,
Argentina has escaped largely uscathed, leaving regional
output huge. Regional stocks carried in from last year will
also be unusually large after Argentine farmers hoarded
crops as a hedge against their declining currency while
Brazilian shipping problems kept a big chunk of supply
moving to export.
Even without the forecast record US soyabean area this
spring, raw material supplies are huge and the increase in
crush foreseen by the USDA (+10m to 239m) looks a bit
conservative. It assumes 13m tonnes of beans will be added
to world stocks, pushing them up to a near record 70.6m
tonnes – a surplus that can be drawn on the moment
product prices/crush margins start to rise.
US soyabean plantings are meanwhile expected to jump
this year to around 81.5m acres which with a normal 99%
harvest ratio and a repeat of last year’s average yields, could
produce 95/97m tonnes, allowing substantial recovery in
US carryover stocks from their unusually low levels of the
last year or two. If top user China’s demand for soyabeans/
meal is slowing down with their economy, as many analysts
think, and/or Latam crops keep increasing, the soya market
could be looking slack in a few months’ time. The USDA’s
recent Outlook Forum recently took this potential on
board, projecting an average US ex-farm price forecast
for soyabeans in 2014/15 of $9.65/bu versus this season’s
$12.45 (CBOT futures are still predicting January 2015 in
the $11.50’s).
World rapeseed supply has turned out about 5m tonnes
bigger than expected this season, thanks to big crops in
Europe, the FSU and, above all Canada where a record 18m
tonnes has been prevented from moving quickly to crush
and export by rail transport snarl-ups. As well as the large
GRAIN&FEED MILLING TECHNOLOGY42 | COMMODITIES
RICE UPDATE
PRODUCTION
In terms of expanding cultivation, rice
has been one of the success stories of
the past few years. World rough rice
production growth has accelerated in
the last decade, expanding by 21%
compared with an 11% gain in the
10-years to 2003/14. This reflected a
rise in the harvested area of 7.6% in
the last ten years (previous decade
2.7%) but, eve more so, yields rising
by 13% (8.3%). By 2013/14 world
area had reached an all-time record
160.6m ha and while this season’s
yields stabilised at last year’s peak level
of 4.4 tonnes/ha, the resultant rough
rice crop still grew to 708m tonnes - in
milled terms about 475m tonnes.
Stabilising yields will see world rice
production grow more slowly this
season – by 3.3m tonnes or 0.7%
compared with just over 1% last
season, 3.7% in 2011/12 and 2% in
2010/11. Flattening trends are most
evident among the big producers,
China, India and Vietnam with most
of this season’s output gains spread
among moderate-sized players like
Brazil, Burma, Egypt and Pakistan.
CONSUMPTION
World rice consumption on the
other hand, has grown at a similar
pace during the last decade to the
previous ten years, by about 14-15%.
Although growth in demand actually
exceeded crop expansion in the last
two years (a reverse of the previous
two) overall consumption continued
to lag production.
This year’s global consumption growth
of 7m tonnes (about 1.5%) has been
mainly down to China and India
(+2m each), with smaller gains spread
across countries including Bangladesh,
Indonesia, Nigeria, Burma, Cambodia
and Egypt. Although still lagging pro-
duction, consumption will grow faster
than supply this season, moderating
the rise in world carryover stocks
somewhat.
STOCKS
This has led to regular global surpluses
and constant (seven successive years)
of increases in the global rice stock
carried from one season to the next.
At the start of the current 2013/14
season, the total had reached an
11-year high of 111m tonnes and is
currently seen edging up yet again,
albeit more slowly than in recent
years, as the market enters 2014/15.
The largest stockholder has long been
China (46m tonnes this season or
about 41% of the world total). But as
these are considered ‘off-market’ in
strategic reserves, the more impor-
tant bellwether followed by the mar-
ket is the combined stock in India,
Thailand, and Vietnam – the world’s
top three suppliers. This figure will
hit a record 41m tonnes in 2013/14,
almost doubling over the last ten
years. Most of this year’s increase
will be down to Thailand (about
2m tonnes), driven by the country’s
farmer support programme.
A recent USDA report indicated
these high exporter stocks could
point to further downward pressure
on forward prices. In fact, the popular
rice benchmark price - for Thai 100%
B grade (fob Bangkok) – has already
dropped to around $420 per tonne,
27.5% below prices ruling in March
2013.
TRADE
World rice trade continues to reach
new record levels too, expanding
from 38.7m tonnes last season to
a forecast 41m for 2013/14. Trade
has grown almost fourfold over the
last 30 years and by over 50% in the
last decade.
The largest importing bloc is sub-
Saharan Africa which takes about
12.5m tonnes a year or almost one
third of the world total followed by
the Middle East (6.5m) with East and
southeast Asian regions in joint third
place at about 5.1m tonnes each.
Most of the import trade growth in
recent years has also been in Sub-
Saharan Africa (about 4m tonnes)
and in China.
Despite being the world’s largest rice
producing country – and usually man-
aging some sort of annual increment
to its own crop base, China’s deficit
has increased roughly ten-fold in the
last four years to about 3.4m tonnes,
making it the largest single country
importer.
African import growth is led by
Nigeria, now importing 3m tonnes
a year - a third more than four years
ago and putting it in second place
behind China among the leading
importers. Other key import players
include Ivory Coast, Ghana, Indonesia,
Iran and Iraq.
OUTLOOK
A possible El Nino year could bring
unwelcome dryness to Southeast &
East Asia, possibly impacting yields in
2014/15 although at this stage, it is
too early to make any firm predictions.
Even if production does slow, car-
ryover stocks are large enough to sup-
plement a lean season or two. Along
with ongoing competition among well-
stocked leading suppliers, this suggests
limited leeway for a revival in rice
prices in the near future.

7. stocks this will leave for carry into next season, some analysts are
still looking for another large Canadian sown area this spring, setting
the stage for another huge crop. European and CIS rapeseed crop
weather has been large favourable, winterkill low, also pointing to
adequate supplies for 2014/15.
Sunflowerseed output jumped almost 19% this season on large
European and CIS crops, reaching 43.3m tonnes against 36.4m the
previous year, raising sunmeal output potential at competitive prices.
Although the Ukrainian issue has made customers nervous, shipments
so far seem not to have been interrupted, Both the CIS countries
might also sow more this spring on land that went unplanted to winter
cereals because of bad weather.
Overall, both stocks and prospective supplies of oilseeds remain
large and promising for price-restraint, if not cheaper supplies of
oilmeal in the season ahead.
KEY FACTORS AHEAD
• Will the US crop emerge from drought and ‘winterkill’ threats with
a respectable result - probably greater than last year’s, if offset by
lower carry-in stocks?
• What impact will the Ukrainian crisis have on its 2014/15 crops
of wheat and maize, on its ability to trade freely (trade finance,
currency issues and, not least, shipping through sea lanes, some of
which are now controlled by Russia)?
• How much will Canada sow?
• Will those parts of Central/Eeastern Europe, CIS and Australia that
have been too dry get adequate spring and summer rains?
• Will India step up its exports?
• Will wheat consumption hold up in the feed and global import
sectors in the face of higher prices?
• Will 2014 maize crops expand as some think, keeping downward
pressure on wheat prices in the feed sector?
• Can speculators continue to find enough justification in this basket
of factors for investing in wheat futures?
COARSE GRAINS
• How much will the US sow/grow this year?
• Will US feed, ethanol and exports hold up in latter half 2014?
• How will CIS plantings, crop development proceed?
• … and CIS export trade amid political turmoil?
• How will LatAm crop competition shape up?
• Will the EU see a third season of massive maize imports to feed
record wheat exports?
• Ukraine and Russia have unplanted winter wheat land that will go
to spring planted crops – oilseeds and maize. They are expected
to remain key players in the global maize export market with huge
influence on European feed values.
• China may release more of its huge stocks, cutting its import needs.
• World barley & sorghum output
OILMEALS/PROTEINS
• Big LatAm & prospective US crops signal huge soya supplies, stock
buildup
• China may use/import less soyabeans as its economy slows
• How much rapeseed (Canada/EU/CIS) and sunflowers (EU/CIS)
will be grown this year?
March - April 2014 | 43GRAIN&FEED MILLING TECHNOLOGY
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world like a packet referred to as Neolithic
Pack by archeologists.
If we take the holy scriptures into consid-
eration, since they are the products of human-
ity, the saying, “You shall eat weed; until you
become earth, you shall eat bread by the sweat
of your brow…”1 has come true. Human
landing on Earth from heaven has lived his own
heaven and hell on Earth. •
References & Footnotes
1 A.Uhri, “Ekmek ve Uygarlık”, Metro-Gastro/42,
Metro Kültür Yay., İstanbul-2007, s.121.
2 M.Özdoğan, “Neolitik Dönem: Günümüz
Uygarlığının Temel Taşları”, 12.000 Yıl
Önce “Uygarlığın Anadolu’dan Avrupa’ya
Yolculuğunun Başlangıcı” Neolitik Dönem,
(edt.)N.Başgelen, YKY Yay., İstanbul-2007, 9-20.
3 G.Willcox-M.Savard, “Güneydoğu Anadolu’da
Tarımın Benimsenmesine İlişkin Botanik
Veriler”, Anadolu’da Uygarlığın Doğuşu
ve Avrupa’ya Yayılımı-Türkiye’de Neolitik
Dönem-Yeni Kazılar, Yeni Bulgular, (edt.)
M.Özdoğan-N.Başgelen, Arkeoloji ve Sanat
Yay., İstanbul-2007, s.427-440.
4 K.Schmidt, “Göbekli Tepe” 12.000 Yıl
Önce “Uygarlığın Anadolu’dan Avrupa’ya
Yolculuğunun Başlangıcı” Neolitik Dönem,
(edt.)N.Başgelen, YKY Yay., İstanbul-2007,
s.93-95.
5 P.Dolukhanov, Eski Ortadoğu’da Çevre
ve Etnik Yapı, Çev.S.Aydın, İmge Yay.,
Ankara-1998, 200-202 ve M.N.Cohen, The
Food Crisis in Prehistory, Yale Unv. Press.,
USA-1977, s.135.
6 M.Roaf, Mezopotamya ve Eski Yakındoğu,
Çev.Z.Kılıç, İletişim yay., İstanbul-1996, s.27.
7 C.K.Maisels, Uygarlığın Doğuşu, Çev.A.Şenel,
İmge Ktbv. Yay., Ankara-1999, s.145.
8 Roaf 1996, s.29.
9 A.Ünal, Etiler ve Hititler, Etibank Yay.,
İstanbul-1999, s.221.
10 Dolukhanov 1998, s.204 Roaf 1996, s.29, ve
Maisels 1999, s.123 ayrıca Cohen 1977, s.135.
11 S.H.Hook, Ortadoğu Mitolojisi, Çev.A.Şenel,
İmge Ktbv., Ankara-1993, s.36-37.
12 A.Ünal, Etiler ve Hititler, Etibank Yay.,
İstanbul-1999, 215
13 Ünal 1999, 215-217.
14 Tekvin, 3: 18-19. Kitabı Mukaddes, Kitabı
Mukaddes Şirketi, İstanbul-1993.
March - April 2014 | 13GRAIN&FEED MILLING TECHNOLOGY
A/S
F

8. www.gfmt.co.uk
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A subscription magazine for the global flour & feed milling industries - first published in 1891
INCORPORATING PORTS, DISTRIBUTION AND FORMULATION
In this issue:
• Researching
and reporting:
the roller flour
milling revolution
• What is
Fumigation?
A technique of
pest control using
a toxic gas
• VIV Europe
preview
Our pull out
centre section
March-April2014
• Bread is the
foundation of
civilization
• Conserving
grains:
through drying
• Flour miller
values
weighbridge
technology on
the island of
Zanzibar
first published in 1891
This digital Re-print is part of the March | April 2014 edition of Grain & Feed
Milling Technology magazine.
Content from the magazine is available to view free-of-charge, both as a full
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tion please contact our Circulation and Subscriptions Manager on the link
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All Grain & Feed Milling Tecchnology feature articles can be re-printed as a 4 or 8 page booklets (these
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If you are interested in getting this article re-printed please contact the GFMT team for more informa-
tion on - Tel: +44 1242 267707 - Email: jamest@gfmt.co.uk or visit www.gfmt.co.uk/reprints