Using GEM’S Tools and Datasets for Calculating Hazard Across the Globe

1. Using GEM’S Tools and Datasets for Calculating Hazard Across the Globe
Graeme WEATHERILL
Marco PAGANI
10thUS National Conference on Earthquake Engineering

2. Hazard Modelling: A Global Perspective
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OpenQuakefor multiple scales: site-specific, regional and global.
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Hazard Modeller’sToolkit & OpenQuakeGround Motion Toolkit
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OpenQuake-(Hazard)Engine: Application
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Site-Specific Analysis
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Application in National and Regional Seismic Hazard Models
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Global Scale PSHA

3. OpenQuake-engine: A Seismic Hazard Tool for Many Scales
OpenQuake
Feature
Site-Specific
Regional
Global
Classical PSHA(Cornell-McGuire Approach)
✔
✔
✔
Event-BasedPSHA
✔
✔
✔
Disaggregation
✔
✔
Scenario
✔

4. OpenQuake-engine

5. From Datasets to Models: GEM’s ModellingTools
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GEM Hazard Modeller’sToolkit (hmtk)
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Currently: different software languages, different I/O formats, different data requirements.
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Reproducibility? Global consistency and quality control? (Lees, 2012)
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Convenience and compatibility with the GEM Hazard Engine
SeismogenicSource Model
SEISMIC HAZARD ANALYSIS
ANALYSIS TOOLS
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Seismicity -Harmonising and processing earthquake catalogues
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Geological -Faults sources and activity rates calculated from geological data
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Geodetic –Activity rates from geodetic strain

6. •
Descriptive Statistics
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Declustering
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Completeness
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Recurrence
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(Statistical Mmax)
HMTK: From earthquake catalogues to recurrence models

7. HMTK: From Fault Geology to SeismogenicFault Sources
Tools to characteriseearthquake recurrence from fault geology
Can incorporate epistemic uncertainty in fault source models

8. HMTK: From Geodetic Strain to Seismic Activity Rate
Creates activity rate models based on geodetic strain –using the approach of Bird & Liu (2007)

9. Tools for PSHA Input Model Preparation

10. OpenQuakeGround Motion Toolkit
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Primary Objective: A Combined Model/Data driven tool to help with selection and weighting of GMPEs for use in PSHA
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Takes as a dependency OpenQuakehazardlib–ensures the GMPE implementations are those of OpenQuake
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Incorporates flexible and comprehensive architecture for storing databases of ground motion records
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Partly developed in the context of the SARA WP6 project

11. OpenQuakeGround Motion Tools: GMPE Comparison (Trellis Plotting)

12. OpenQuakeGround Motion Tools: Observation to Model Comparison –GMPE Selection for Site-Specific/Regional Models
Includes:
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Log-Likelihood (Scherbaumet al. , 2009)
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Euclidean Distance-Based Ranking (Kale & Akker, 2013)
Random effects residuals

13. Site-Specific Application: Single Station Analysis

14. Site-Specific Application: ThyspuntNuclear Power Plant
OpenQuakeused as independent comparison with FRISK88

15. GEM Database of Regional & National Models
SHARE
EMME
EMCA
NIED
SARA –Expected 2015
ResisII/Geoter/Garcia et al. (2003)

16. Comparison Against Original Implementations

17. Comparison Against Original Implementations

18. Comparison Against Original Implementations

19. Hazard (and Risk) Modellingat the Global Scale
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Extended Global Earthquake Catalogue
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More than 500000 events (1900 –2012)
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Combines ISC-GEM, EngdahlBulletin, GCMT, ISC Reviewed Bulletin

20. Hazard (and Risk) Modellingat the Global Scale
•
Extended Global Earthquake Catalogue
–
More than 500000 events (1900 –2012)
–
Combines ISC-GEM, EngdahlBulletin, GCMT, ISC Reviewed Bulletin
•
Depth-dependent smoothed seismicity algorithms

21. Hazard (and Risk) Modellingat the Global Scale
•
Extended Global Earthquake Catalogue
–
More than 500000 events (1900 –2012)
–
Combines ISC-GEM, EngdahlBulletin, GCMT, ISC Reviewed Bulletin
•
Depth-dependent smoothed seismicity algorithms
•
Global Smoothed Focal Mechanism Model –based on Kagan& Jackson (2014)

22. Hazard (and Risk) Modellingat the Global Scale
Activity rates for multiple depth layers using a smoothed seismicity approach –including focal mechanism and hypocentraldepth distributions
Future developments can incorporate geodetic strain for constraint of long- term activity rates
Combined with the recommendations of the GEM Global GMPE component (Stewart et al., 2014), can produce models of “globally uniform” hazard

23. Segue to Vitor’sppt
Moving to risk …

24. Except where otherwise noted, thiswork is licensed under:
creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/
Please attribute to the GEM Foundation with a link to - www.globalearthquakemodel.org