The Seismic Hazard Modeller’s Toolkit:  An Open-Source Library for the Construction of Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Models

1. The Seismic Hazard Modeller’s Toolkit:
An Open-Source Library for the
Construction of Probabilistic Seismic
Hazard Models
Graeme Weatherill1, Luis E. Rodríguez-Abreu2, Marco Pagani3
August 25th 2014, 2ECEES, Istanbul, Turkey
1 Hazard Scientist, Global Earthquake Model (GEM), Pavia, Italy,
2 PhD Student, Understanding & Managing Extremes (UME) School, Pavia, Italy
3 Hazard Coordinator, Global Earthquake Model (GEM), Pavia, Italy

2. The challenge to build seismic hazard models
Definition Seismic sources geometry
Processing Geologic Information
Geodetic Data
Seismic Catalogues
Ground motion prediction
equations
Selection
Seismic hazard
model
PSHA

3. The Hazard Modeller’s Toolkit, the GEM library for the creation of
PSHA models
The Global Earthquake Model (GEM) has produced an open-source toolkit for
construction of seismogenic source models as input for PSHA.
Seismic
hazard model
SEISMIC
HAZARD
ANALYSIS
Hazard modeller’s
toolkit
hazardlib
nmrllib
Python 2.7 library

4. The Hazard Modeller’s Toolkit, a library for the creation of PSHA
models
Public and available Documented
https://github.com/GEMScienceTools/hmtk https://github.com/GEMScienceTools/hmtk_docs
Under GNU Affero license

5. GEM-hmtk is an integrated visualization and analysis tool
HMTK
Modules with
methods and tools
Python
Interface
(i.e. iPython Notebook)
Seismogenic
Model
hazardlib
nmrllib

6. Seismicity tools
Data Catalogues
Area source geometry
Methods
• Declustering
• Completeness
• Recurrence
• Maximum magnitude
(statistics)
Seismic a and b-values, seismic rates
model

7. Seismicity tools
Data Catalogues
Region of interest
Methods
• Declustering
• Completeness
• Smoothed seismicity
Seismic a-value, seismic rates
model

8. Seismicity tools
Sources
Catalogues

9. Catalogues
Sources
• Statistical analysis
• Parameters
estimation
Seismicity tools

10. Flexibility to combine and explore data.
Example: Estimation of b-value
variation along South America
using the hmtk
Slab1.0 (Hayes et al., 2012)

11. Geology tools
Active faults sources
Tectonic regionalization
Fault definition

12. Geology tools
Data Fault geometry
Slip rate
Methods Recurrence methods
Magnitude Frequency
distribution
Seismic
model
• Youngs and Coppersmith (exponential)

13. Geology tools
Data Fault geometry
Slip rate
Methods Recurrence methods
Magnitude Frequency
distribution
Seismic
model
• Youngs and Coppersmith (exponential)
• Youngs and Coppersmith (hybrid)

14. Geology tools
Data Fault geometry
Slip rate
Methods Recurrence methods
Magnitude Frequency
distribution
• Youngs and Coppersmith (exponential)
• Youngs and Coppersmith (hybrid)
• Characteristic
Seismic
model

15. Geology tools
Catalogue Instrumental
Catalogue Historical Geology
Seismicity

16. Geology tools
Recurrence methods
Magnitude Frequency
distribution
Epistemic uncertainties in the fault
modeling
• Slip rate
• Magnitude scaling relation (SR)
• Shear modulus
• Displacement to length ratio
• No. of standard deviation in the SR
• Configuration of magnitude
frequency distribution
Catalogue Instrumental
Catalogue Historical
Logic three
MFD1
MFD2
MFD3

17. Geodetic tools
Strain rate model
Tectonic regionalization
Moment rate model
Kreemer et al., 2003; 2014

18. Geodetic tools
Data Strain rate model
Tectonic regionalization
Methods Moment rate model
Seismic Activity rates
model
• Bird and Liu, 2007

19. Conclusions
Hazard modeller’s toolkit:
• Data integration
• Consistent with OQ-engine
• Understand the impact on the methods
• Makes the PSHA model building process more transparent
and reproducible
Selection Ground motion prediction equations
Strong motion
toolkit

20. Strong Motion Toolkit
OpenQuake Ground Mo on Toolkit
Strong
Mo on
Database
Ground Mo on
Records
Ground Mo on
Intensity Measures
and Response Spectra
Strong Mo on
Database Creator
Trellis Plots and GMPE
Visualisa on
Hazard Applica ons:
i) Condi onal Field
Simula ons
Observa on to Model
Comparison
i) Residuals
ii) Likelihood
Analysis
iii) EDR
iv) Single Sta on

21. Strong Motion Toolkit
https://github.com/g-weatherill/gmpe-smtk https://github.com/g-weatherill/gmpe-smtk-docs

22. Strong Motion Toolkit: GMPE comparison

23. Strong Motion Toolkit
Includes:
• Log-Likelihood (Scherbaum
et al. , 2009)
• Euclidean Distance-Based
Ranking (Kale & Akker, 2013)
Random
effects
residuals

24. Please attribute to the GEM Foundation with a link to -
www.globalearthquakemodel.org
Except where otherwise noted, this work is licensed under:
creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/