The European [SHARE] Seismic Hazard Model: Genesis, Evolution and Key, Aspects, L. Danciu , J. Woessner, D. Giardini and the SHARE Consortium, GEM reveal 2013
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The European [SHARE] Seismic Hazard Model: Genesis, Evolution and Key, Aspects, L. Danciu , J. Woessner, D. Giardini and the SHARE Consortium, GEM reveal 2013
1. The European [SHARE] Seismic
Hazard Model:
Genesis, Evolution and Key Aspects
L. Danciu , J. Woessner, D. Giardini and the SHARE Consortium
3. European
PSHA
Model:
Goals
Harmonize
hazard
assessment
across
na.onal
borders
On
data
level,
modeling
level
and
procedural
level
Create
a
community-‐based
Cme-‐independent
(rock)
reference
hazard
model
for
the
Euro-‐Mediterranean
region
Keep
close
connec.on
to
engineering
requirements
of
EC8
and
its
future
revision
4. European
PSHA
Model:
Goals
Hazard
So@ware
“Black
Box”
INPUT
OUTPUT
“Easy
Review”
Box
Data
Interpreta.ons
Assump.ons
All
steps
of
the
seismic
hazard
assessment
have
to
be:
• Validated
• Benchmarked
• Reproducible
All
data
is
documented
and
open
to
access!
11. Building the SHARE Source Model
TradiConal
Area
Source
(AS)
Model
Fault
Source
(FS)
+
Background
(BG)
Model
Smoothed
Seismicity
Model
(Woo,
1996;
Grünthal
et
al.,
in
prep)
StochasCc
Earthquake
Source
Model
(Hiemer
et
al.;
Woessner
et
al.;
in
prep.)
31. R.
Basili
et
al
2013
hbp://diss.rm.ingv.it/share-‐edsf/
32. SHARE Source Model Logic Tree
StochasCc
Earthquake
Source
Model
(Hiemer
et
al.;
Woessner
et
al.;
in
prep.)
33. Kernel Smooth Seismicity and Fault Model
Seismicity
Faults
(SSZ)
Procedure
1. Calculate spatial location PDFs
Smoothed Seismicity: PE
Smoothed Faults: PF
2. Weighting
Linear weighting according to
probabilities PF and PE
3. Calculate earthquake rate
Only Seismicity: R=PE*N(MW=6.5)
Only Faults: R=PF*N(MW=8.5)
Seismicity
Faults
Normalized
Earthquake
Rate
34. Kernel Smooth Seismicity and Fault Model
Optimize kernel using a
CSEP likelihood tests
Split catalog in learning and
target period
Optimize on 5 year target
period
Use best likelihood-value to
generate model rates
Learning Period Target Period
1000 2002 2007
38. Procedure to the SHARE-GMPE Logic Tree
Engineering requirements
were (WP2) defined as
constraint at the beginning of
the project (a “wish list”)
Differences in coverage of
magnitude – distance and
frequency range poses
challenges for hazard
computation
Delavaud
et
al.,
2012,
J.
Seis.
39. Procedure to the SHARE-GMPE Logic Tree
SHARE
-‐
Strong
Ground
Mo.on
Dataset
(Scherbaum
et
al.
[2009];
Delavaud
et
al.
[2009])
Experts
Opinion
Data
Driven
40. SHARE - GMPE Logic Tree
Delavaud
et
al.,
2012,
J.
Seis.
41. SHARE Logic Tree Weights
• Proposed weighting schemes for active shallow crust:!
45. Quality Checks
Moment comparisons to strain rate model for
the single source models
CSEP rate forecast test vs. independent
data of USGS / NEIC
Comparison to previous hazard
assessments
Sensitivity analysis on
Depth distribution
Point source vs. Extended source
calculations