OpenQuake implementations of national and regional hazard models, Damiano Monelli,GEM Hazard Team

1. OpenQuake
implementa.ons
of
na.onal
and
regional
hazard
models
Damiano
Monelli,
GEM
Hazard
Team

5. 130˚ 135˚ 140˚ 145˚ 150˚
30˚
35˚
40˚
45˚
130˚ 135˚ 140˚ 145˚ 150˚
30˚
35˚
40˚
45˚
2.0 3.2 5.0 7.8 12.0 19.0 31.0 48.0 76.0 120.0
Peak ground velocity on bedrock (cm/s)
130˚ 135˚ 140˚ 145˚ 150˚
30˚
35˚
40˚
45˚
130˚ 135˚ 140˚ 145˚ 150˚
30˚
35˚
40˚
45˚
2.0 3.2 5.0 7.8 12.0 19.0 31.0 48.0 76.0 120.0
Peak ground velocity on bedrock (cm/s)
Hazard
maps
for
10%
probability
of
exceedance
in
50
years
Na.onal
Research
Ins.tute
for
Earth
Science
and
Disaster
Preven.on
OPENQUAKE

6. Etorofuto-Oki
Earthquake
Kanto Earthquake
of "1923 Taisho" type
Nemuro-Oki
Earthquake
Nankai
Earthquake
Shikotanto-Oki
Earthquake
Large interplate earthquakes
in Northern Sanriku-Oki
(Repeating earthquakes)
Great East Japan
Earthquake (2011 type)
Tokachi-Oki
Earthquake
Tonankai
Earthquake Assumed Tokai
Earthquake
Probability
of
occurrence
in
the
next
50
years
(star.ng
from
2012)

7. 130˚
140˚
150˚
30˚
40˚
130˚
140˚
150˚
30˚
40˚
Tohoku-­‐like:
10%
Tohoku-­‐like:
1%
Tohoku-­‐like:
0%
130˚
140˚
150˚
30˚
40˚
130˚
140˚
150˚
30˚
40˚
130˚ 135˚ 140˚ 145˚ 150˚
30˚
35˚
40˚
45˚
130˚ 135˚ 140˚ 145˚ 150˚
30˚
35˚
40˚
45˚
2.0 3.2 5.0 7.8 12.0 19.0 31.0 48.0 76.0 120.0
Peak ground velocity on bedrock (cm/s)

8. rate has been driven by, for example: increased recording (through lower-cost digital instruments and
denser networks) and availability of strong-motion data [through online open-access databases, such
as the Internet Site for European Strong-motion Data (Ambraseys et al., 2004)], more journals and
conferences publishing engineering seismology research, and large-scale initiatives, such as the Next
Generation Attenuation (NGA) project (Powers et al., 2008). The latest compendium of published
GMPEs by Douglas (2011) lists the characteristics of 289 empirical GMPEs for the prediction of PGA
and 188 empirical models for the prediction of elastic response spectral ordinates. In addition, this
report lists many dozens of simulation-based models to estimate these parameters.
Figure 1. Number of published GMPEs per year (histogram) and cumulatively since 1964 (blue line).
This abundance of models, however, creates a difficulty. On one hand, it is feasible from a practical
point of view to carefully consider only a small fraction (less than 10%) of all available GMPEs in
any project but, on the other hand, predictions of the median ground motions from the available
GMPEs show a large (and not noticeably narrowing) dispersion (Figure 2), which needs to be
considered since it demonstrates high epistemic uncertainty in ground-motion prediction.
Consequently, a set of objective selection criteria need to be applied to the list of available models to
hal-00700233,version1-22May2012
Douglas
et
al.
2012,
Compila.on
and
cri.cal
review
of
GMPEs
for
the
GEM-­‐PEER
Global
GMPEs
Project,
15
WCEE,
Lisbon,
Portugal.

9. 160˚
170˚
180˚ 170˚ 160˚ 150˚
140˚
130˚
50˚
60˚
70˚
160˚
170˚
180˚ 170˚ 160˚ 150˚
140˚
130˚
50˚
60˚
70˚
0.005 0.009 0.016 0.029 0.053 0.095 0.170 0.310 0.560 1.000
Peak ground acceleration on bedrock (g)
160˚
170˚
180˚ 170˚ 160˚ 150˚
140˚
130˚
50˚
60˚
70˚
160˚
170˚
180˚ 170˚ 160˚ 150˚
140˚
130˚
50˚
60˚
70˚
0.005 0.009 0.016 0.029 0.053 0.095 0.170 0.310 0.560 1.000
Peak ground acceleration on bedrock (g)
Youngs
et
al.
1997
Atkinson
and
Boore
2003
Abrahamson
and
Silva
1997
Boore
et
al.
1997
Sadigh
et
al.
1997
Campbell
and
Bozorgnia
2003
Youngs
et
al.
1997
Sadigh
et
al.
1997
160˚
170˚
180˚ 170˚ 160˚ 150˚
140˚
130˚
50˚
60˚
70˚
160˚
170˚
180˚ 170˚ 160˚ 150˚
140˚
130˚
50˚
60˚
70˚
0.005 0.009 0.016 0.029 0.053 0.095 0.170 0.310 0.560 1.000
Peak ground acceleration on bedrock (g)
OPENQUAKE
Sadight
et
al.
1997
–
Shallow
Crust
Youngs
et
al.
1997
–
Subduc.on
Subduc.on
IntraSlab
Shallow
Crust
Subduc.on
Interface
United
States
Geological
Survey
Hazard
maps
for
10%
probability
of
exceedance
in
50
years

10. 160˚
170˚
180˚ 170˚ 160˚ 150˚
140˚
130˚
50˚
60˚
70˚
160˚
170˚
180˚ 170˚ 160˚ 150˚
140˚
130˚
50˚
60˚
70˚
0.005 0.009 0.016 0.029 0.053 0.095 0.170 0.310 0.560 1.000
Peak ground acceleration on bedrock (g)
160˚
170˚
180˚ 170˚ 160˚ 150˚
140˚
130˚
50˚
60˚
70˚
160˚
170˚
180˚ 170˚ 160˚ 150˚
140˚
130˚
50˚
60˚
70˚
0.005 0.009 0.016 0.029 0.053 0.095 0.170 0.310 0.560 1.000
Peak ground acceleration on bedrock (g)
Youngs
et
al.
1997
Atkinson
and
Boore
2003
Abrahamson
and
Silva
1997
Boore
et
al.
1997
Sadigh
et
al.
1997
Campbell
and
Bozorgnia
2003
Youngs
et
al.
1997
Sadigh
et
al.
1997
Subduc.on
IntraSlab
Shallow
Crust
Subduc.on
Interface
United
States
Geological
Survey
OPENQUAKE
Chiou
&
Youngs
2008
–
Shallow
Crust
Zhao
et
al.
2006
–
Subduc.on
Hazard
maps
for
10%
probability
of
exceedance
in
50
years

11. 90˚ 80˚ 70˚ 60˚ 50˚ 40˚ 30˚
60˚
50˚
40˚
30˚
20˚
10˚
0˚
10˚
20˚
90˚ 80˚ 70˚ 60˚ 50˚ 40˚ 30˚
60˚
50˚
40˚
30˚
20˚
10˚
0˚
10˚
20˚
0.0050
0.0098
0.0190
0.0380
0.0740
0.1400
0.2800
0.5500
1.1000
2.1000
Peakgroundaccelerationonbedrock(g)
Hazard
map
for
10%
probability
of
exceedance
in
50
years

12. 90˚ 80˚ 70˚ 60˚ 50˚ 40˚ 30˚
60˚
50˚
40˚
30˚
20˚
10˚
0˚
10˚
20˚
90˚ 80˚ 70˚ 60˚ 50˚ 40˚ 30˚
60˚
50˚
40˚
30˚
20˚
10˚
0˚
10˚
20˚
0.0050
0.0098
0.0190
0.0380
0.0740
0.1400
0.2800
0.5500
1.1000
2.1000
Peakgroundaccelerationonbedrock(g)
82˚ 81˚ 80˚ 79˚ 78˚ 77˚ 76˚ 75˚ 74˚
6˚
5˚
4˚
3˚
2˚
1˚
0˚
1˚
2˚
82˚ 81˚ 80˚ 79˚ 78˚ 77˚ 76˚ 75˚ 74˚
6˚
5˚
4˚
3˚
2˚
1˚
0˚
1˚
2˚
0.0050
0.0068
0.0093
0.0130
0.0170
0.0240
0.0320
0.0440
0.0600
0.0820
0.1100
0.1500
0.2100
0.2800
0.3900
0.5300
0.7200
Peakgroundaccelerationonbedrock(g)
82˚ 81˚ 80˚ 79˚ 78˚ 77˚ 76˚ 75˚ 74˚
6˚
5˚
4˚
3˚
2˚
1˚
0˚
1˚
2˚
82˚ 81˚ 80˚ 79˚ 78˚ 77˚ 76˚ 75˚ 74˚
6˚
5˚
4˚
3˚
2˚
1˚
0˚
1˚
2˚
0.0050
0.0068
0.0093
0.0130
0.0170
0.0240
0.0320
0.0440
0.0600
0.0820
0.1100
0.1500
0.2100
0.2800
0.3800
0.5200
0.7200
Peakgroundaccelerationonbedrock(g)
Celine
Beauval
–
ISTerre
Grenoble
Hugo
Yepes
and
seismology
group
–
IG
Quito
With
support
from
IRD
(INSTITUT
DE
RECHERCHE
POUR
LE
DEVELOPPEMENT,
FRANCE)
USGS
Hazard
map
for
10%
probability
of
exceedance
in
50
years