APA climate change planning presentation given at afternoon session. Overview of Northeast Ohio CO2 emissions, transportation and building climate change actions.

1. Planning for Climate Change
Brad Chase September 24, 2009
bchase@cmnh.org
1

2. 2

3. Cleveland Carbon Fund
3

4. 4

5. Climate Change Planning
5

6. Perspective
Per capita CO2 emissions
What is your footprint? change)
(2003, tons - excludes land use
Qa
Am ean om
C h – 1 m e .8
Ja nia
Un
Ca
Un
In
Oh
Au
Eu d Ki
Br
Un
Te
pa
di
az n H n –
lif
ta
in .8 les
ro ng
xa
i
ite 0.0
str
i
er
te
te
io
a–
or
a–
n
r
il
p
s–
ica nio 9.2
d
ali
d
–4
– 1 1. 1
–
Ar
1.
St
a–
3.
32
6.
24
1
at
ab
4
–1
U –
.5
1t
17
o
es
d
.1
Em
on
.2
–1
ira
sp
9.
te
s8
8
er
9
s–
.5
p
*
er
25
so
.0
n
Climate Analysis Indicators Tool (CAIT) Version 5.0. (Washington DC: World Resources Institute, 2008)
*MIT Tech Talk. Volume 52, Number 23, Wednesday April 16, 2008.
6

7. Carbon “budget” Roundtrip to
Los Angeles
Roundtrip to
Hong Kong
Roundtrip to
Average Ohioan in 2003 London
24.1 tons
15,000 miles
in a Prius
15,000 miles
in a Civic
30% per capita
reduction by 2030
15,000 miles in a
Hummer
80%
reduction
by 2050
7

8. Northeast Ohio Footprint
8

9. U.S. mid-range abatement curve from
Abatement
Cost
McKinsey – 2030 cost <$50/ton
Commercial Residential
Real 2005 dollars per ton CO2e Afforestation buildings – buildings –
of cropland HVAC HVAC
equipment equipment
90 Coal power plants–
efficiency efficiency
CCS rebuilds with EOR
Industrial
Residential
Fuel economy process Coal mining – Active forest Solar CSP
buildings – Distributed
packages – Light improve- Methane mgmt management
Shell solar PV
60 trucks ments
retrofits
Residential
electronics Commercial Commercial Nuclear
buildings – Residential
buildings – new-
Combined water
Control build
30 heat and heaters
Residential systems
buildings – power
Lighting
0
0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0 1.2 1.4 1.6 1.8 2.0 2.2 2.4 2.6 2.8 3.0 3.2
Potential
Onshore wind – Gigatons/year
-30 Onshore wind – Industry –
Low penetration
CCS new
Industry – High penetration
builds on
Combined
carbon-
heat and Biomass power – intensive
-60 power Cofiring processes
Cellulosic
Manufacturing –
biofuels Existing power HFCs Car hybridi-
Coal power plants – CCS zation
plant mgmt
-90 Residential new builds with EOR
conversion
buildings – efficiency Onshore wind – Medium
New shell improvements Coal-to-gas
Commercial penetration
improvements shift – dispatch of
electronics Conservation
-120 Winter existing plants
tillage
Commercial cover crops
buildings – Coal power plants –
CFL lighting Reforestation CCS rebuilds
-230
-220 Commercial
buildings – Commercial
LED lighting buildings – Afforestation of
Natural gas Coal power
New shell pastureland
and petroleum plants – CCS
Fuel economy improvements
systems new builds
packages – Cars
management
9
Source: McKinsey analysis

10. Ohio Progress?
10

11. Building Sector Transition
11

12. Building Sector
How do we accomplish reductions?
2030 Residential 2030 Commercial
Potential Potential
Tons CO2 Tons CO2
Building Strategies CO2 CO2
Reduced Reduced
Reductions Reductions
Retrofit and renovate existing building
1 stock
20% 2,617,638 15% 1,819,002
Achieve aggressive energy reductions
2 in new buildings
10% 1,745,092 20% 2,425,336
Educate and change occupant energy
3 behaviors
15% 3,490,184 10% 1,221,668
Implement district-wide solutions and
4 efficient land use planning
5% 872,546 5% 606,334
Total 2030 CO2 Reductions 50% -8,725,461 50% -6,072,340
12

13. Buildings Scenarios
1. Retrofit and Renovate: New Construction: Agg and Change Oc District Wi
2. Energy Efficient Products
3. Educate 4.
1.1.1 Refrigerators 1.1.1 Air Conditioners Space Heating Water Heating Lighting
1.1.1 1.1.3 1.1.5
• Develop strategies for reducing
electricity use and natural gas
17,450,922 tons CO2e use in residential sector
42% Natural Gas/Other • Natural gas emissions reduced
7,329,387 tons 50% by 2030, to 3,664,694 tons
58% Electricity • Electricity emissions reduced
10,121,535 tons 50% by 2030, to 5,060,767 tons
• Energy Plan plays integral role in
electricity reductions
13

14. Buildings Scenario 1.1
1. Retrofit and Renovate: Energy Efficient Products 2. New Construction: Agg
3. Educate 4.
1.1.1 Refrigerators 1.1.1 Air Conditioners Space Heating Water Heating Lighting
1.1.1 1.1.3 1.1.5
Residential: 2001 Electricity Consumption
Device % CO2 Tons/yr
Refrigerator 13.7% 1,386,624
Air-Conditioning 16.0% 1,619,415
Space Heating 10.1% 1,022,256
Water Heating 9.1% 921,042
Lighting 8.8% 890,678
TVs 2.9% 293,519
Furnace Fans 3.3% 334,004
Freezers 3.5% 354,247
Clothes Dryers 5.8% 587,038
Other 26.7% 2,702,399
99.9% 10,111,222
14

15. Buildings Scenario 1.1
1. Retrofit and Renovate: Energy Efficient Products 2. New Construction: Agg
3. Educate 4.
1.1.1 Refrigerators 1.1.1 Air Conditioners Space Heating Water Heating Lighting
1.1.1 1.1.3 1.1.5
• Eliminating 200,000 second refrigerators in 7 county region would result
in 1.87% (189,320 tons) reduction in residential CO2 emissions.
• Replacing 300,000 refrigerators older than 2001 would result in a 1.97%
(198,787 tons) reduction in CO2 emissions.
• Together, these two actions would eliminate almost 400,000 tons or 4%
of the overall residential carbon footprint in Northeast Ohio.
15

16. Buildings Scenario 1.2
1. Retrofit and Renovate: Building Improvements 2. New Construction: Agg
3. Educate 4.
1.2.1 Improve Existing Building Stock 1.2.2 Improvement Incentives 1.2.3
Housing Units by County and Year Built Housing Units
Year Built TOTAL
300,000 Built 3/2000 - 2004 50,295
Built 1995 to 3/2000 66,874
Built 1990 to 1994 55,680
Cuyahoga Geauga
250,000 Built 1980 to 1989 88,687
Lake Lorain
Built 1970 to 1979 164,769
Medina Portage
Built 1960 to 1969 183,805
200,000 Summit
Built 1950 to 1959 229,345
Housing Units
Built 1940 to 1949 131,718
Built 1939 or earlier 281,456
150,000
TOTAL 1,252,629
100,000
80% or 990,000 homes
50,000
in 7 county region are
0
30 + years old.
Built Built Built Built Built Built Built Built Built
3/2000 1995 to 1990 to 1980 to 1970 to 1960 to 1950 to 1940 to 1939 or
- 2004 3/2000 1994 1989 1979 1969 1959 1949 earlier
16

17. Buildings Scenario 2.1
1. Retrofit and Renovate: Energy Efficient Products
2. New Construction: Aggressive Energy Reductions 3. Educate and
2.1.1 Meet National Energy Challenges 2.1.2 LEED 2.1.3 Energy Star 2.1.4
Low Growth Scenario: Meet Architecture 2030 Targets - New Homes by Energy Reduction and Year • 10-15% reduction in
0% 10% 15% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% Tons Reduced/yr Cumulative
2010 0 0 0 0 7,981 177 177 532 0 0 0 0 40,027 40,027 emissions possible
2011 0 0 0 0 6,208 887 887 266 177 177 177 89 46,452 86,479
2012
2013
0 0 0 0 5,321 1,153 887 887 177 177 177 89 49,417 135,896 by 2030, depending
0 0 0 0 3,547 887 1,330 1,774 887 177 177 89 57,941 193,837
2014
2015
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
1,774
0
887
0
1,330
0
3,991
0
443 177
7,094 1,419
177
177
89
177
64,736
89,691
258,573
348,264
on region’s new
2016
2017
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
6,740 1,774
5,764 2,217
177
443
177
443
90,185
92,656
438,449
531,106
construction rate
2018 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 3,547 4,434 443 443 95,745 626,850
2019
2020
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
1,774 5,853
0 7,538
621
709
621
621
98,957
101,551
725,807
827,358 • In low growth
2021 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 7,094 887 887 102,540 929,898
2022 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 5,321 1,774 1,774 106,246 1,036,144 scenario, new home
2023 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2,217 4,434 2,217 111,187 1,147,331
2024
2025
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
1,330 5,321 2,217
0 6,651 2,217
112,423
114,276
1,259,754
1,374,030
construction which
2026
2027
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
6,208 2,660
4,434 4,434
114,894
117,365
1,488,924
1,606,288
meets national
2028
2029
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
4,434 4,434
4,434 4,434
117,365
117,365
1,723,653
1,841,018
challenges would
2030
Totals
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
24,830
0
3,991
0
4,611
0
7,449
0 0 0 8,868
26,604 39,906 41,857 36,980
123,542
1,964,559
1,964,559
result in 11%
11%
reduction in CO2
Energy Star Builders Architecture 2030 Architecture 2030
Challenge (2010 Goal) (2030 Goal) emissions from
residential sector by
2030.
17

18. Buildings Scenario 2.1
1. Retrofit and Renovate: Energy Efficient Products
2. New Construction: Aggressive Energy Reductions 3. Educate and
2.1.1 Meet National Energy Challenges 2.1.2 LEED 2.1.3 Energy Star 2.1.4
• 10-15% reduction in
emissions possible
by 2030, 25%-35%
reduction by 2050
• New home
construction alone
will not be enough
• Retrofits and
renewable energy will
have to fill gap if
region will meet 50%
and 90% reduction
targets
18

19. Buildings Scenario 2.1
1. Retrofit and Renovate: Energy Efficient Products
2. New Construction: Aggressive Energy Reductions 3. Educate and
2.1.1 Meet National Energy Challenges
2.1.2 LEED 2.1.3 Energy Star 2.1.4 HERS
2008 Energy Star Homes by State
19

20. Buildings Scenario 2.1
1. Retrofit and Renovate: Energy Efficient Products
2. New Construction: Aggressive Energy Reductions 3. Educate and
2.1.1 Meet National Energy Challenges
2.1.2 LEED 2.1.3 Energy Star 2.1.4 HERS
Residential Energy Services Network (RESNET)
HERS Index
Reference Reference Home is assigned a HERS
Home Score Index of 100, while a net zero energy
home is assigned a HERS Index of 0
Reference 2006 International Energy Conservation
Home Basis Code (IECC)
Each 1% increase in energy efficiency
Scale corresponds to a 1-point decrease in
HERS Index
Energy Use Heating, cooling, water heating, lighting,
Considered appliances, and onsite power generation*
ENERGY HERS Index of 85 in climate zones 1–5
STAR HERS Index of 80 in climate zones 6–8
Requirement
Approved by the RESNET Board of
Status Directors. To be implemented as of July
1, 2006.
20

21. Buildings Scenario 4.1
1. Retrofit and Renovate: Energy Efficient Products Use Planning
2. New Construction: Aggressive Energy Reductions
3. Educate and 4. Efficient Land
4.1 Zoning and Planning to Support Grid Development
4.1.2 LEED 4.2 Energy Star
4.3
Developed Land in Cuyahoga County (1948) • Population 1.4 million and
rising
• Grid development pattern
21

22. Buildings Scenario 4.1
1. Retrofit and Renovate: Energy Efficient Products Use Planning
2. New Construction: Aggressive Energy Reductions
3. Educate and 4. Efficient Land
4.1 Zoning and Planning to Support Grid Development
4.1.2 LEED 4.2 Energy Star
4.3
Developed Land in Cuyahoga County (2002) • Population 1.4 million and
declining
• Disconnected development
pattern
22

23. Buildings Scenario 4.1
1. Retrofit and Renovate: Energy Efficient Products Use Planning
2. New Construction: Aggressive Energy Reductions
3. Educate and 4. Efficient Land
4.1 Zoning and Planning to Support Grid Development
4.1.2 LEED 4.2 Energy Star
4.3
• “Green” suburban
home uses more
energy on average
than non-green urban
home
• Significantly less
transportation energy
required for urban
homes on average
23

24. Transportation Sector Transition
24

25. Transportation Sector
How do we accomplish reductions?
2030 2050
Potential Potential
Tons CO2 Tons CO2
Transportation Strategies CO2 CO2
Reduced Reduced
Reductions Reductions
Reduce number of vehicles and need
1 to travel
10% 1,793,627 25% 4,484,068
2 Increase efficiency of vehicles 30% 5,380,882 50% 8,968,137
3 Reduce CO2 intensity of fuel sources 5% 896,814 10% 1,793,627
Align costs of externalities with end
4 users
5% 896,814 5% 896,814
Total CO2 Reductions 50% -8,968,137 90% -16,142,646
25

26. Transportation Scenario 1.2
1. Reduce Number of Vehicles and Need to Travel 2. Increase Efficiency in Fu
3. Reduce CO2
4. Extern
1.1 Land Use1.2 Align Long Range Transportation Plans 1.3 Decrease 1.4
• NOACA and AMATS
MPOs have adopted
climate change language
in LRTPs
• ODOT 21st Century
Priorities Task Force
• Plans are largely done,
challenge exists to set,
track and implement
meaningful metrics (VMT
reduction, CO2
reduction, mode splits)
• Complete Streets
policies one “easy”
solution to start with
26

27. Transportation Scenario 1.2
1. Reduce Number of Vehicles and Need to Travel 2. Increase Efficiency in Fu
3. Reduce CO2
4. Extern
1.1 Land Use1.2 Align Long Range Transportation Plans 1.3 Decrease 1.4
Source: NOACA
27

28. Transportation Scenario 1.3
1. Reduce Number of Vehicles and Need to Travel 2. Increase Efficiency in Fu
3. Reduce CO2
4. Extern
1.1 Land Use 1.2 Align Long Range Decrease Per Capita VMT by 30%
1.3 1.4
U.S. Population and Vehicle Miles
Traveled, 1982-2006 • VMT rate of growth is
slowing, and declined
in 2008
• Many regional and
state plans use VMT
growth rate of 1 to 2%
per year in planning
vs. a flat or declining
VMT
Source: Bailey, et.al, “The Broader Connection
between Public Transportation, Energy Conservation
and Greenhouse Gas Reduction,” February 2008,
www.apta.com/research/info/online/documents/land_
use.pdf
28

29. Transportation Scenario 1.3
1. Reduce Number of Vehicles and Need to Travel 2. Increase Efficiency in Fu
3. Reduce CO2
4. Extern
1.1 Land Use 1.2 Align Long Range Decrease Per Capita VMT by 30%
1.3 1.4
2005 Units MPG Utlization Emissions Factors
Gasonline Gasoline CO2 Short Tons
Avg. ANNUAL VMT
Vehicle Mix % # vehicles Consumption Emissions Factor Lbs/CO2 CO2
MPG Total
(Gallons) (lbs/CO2 per Gal) (1=2000lbs)
Full Size Auto 7.5% 201,726 17 2,200,292,362 129,428,962 20.71 2,680,344,384 1,340,172
Mid Size Auto 17.0% 457,246 20 4,987,329,354 249,366,468 20.71 5,164,130,180 2,582,065
Sub Compact/Compact 27.1% 728,904 25 7,950,389,735 318,015,589 20.71 6,585,784,841 3,292,892
Hybrid cars 0.5% 13,448 40 146,686,157 3,667,154 20.71 75,943,091 37,972
Biodiesel cars 0.5% 13,448 40 146,686,157 3,667,154 20.71 75,943,091 37,972
Plug-in hybrid 0.5% 13,448 52 146,686,157 2,820,888 20.71 58,417,762 29,209
Electric cars 0.0% 0 60 0 0 20.71 0 0
Light-duty trucks / SUV 46.5% 1,250,702 14 13,641,812,645 974,415,189 20.71 20,179,164,148 10,089,582
Motorcycle (2WV) 0.4% 10,759 25 117,348,926 4,693,957 20.71 97,211,850 48,606
TOTAL 100.0% 2,689,682 29,337,231,495 1,686,075,361 20.71 34,916,939,347 17,458,470
2030 Units MPG Utlization Emissions Factors
Gasonline Gasoline CO2 Short Tons
Avg. ANNUAL VMT
Vehicle Mix % # vehicles Consumption Emissions Factor Lbs/CO2 CO2
MPG Total
(Gallons) (lbs/CO2 per Gal) (1=2000lbs)
Full Size Auto 7.5% 201,726 17 1,870,248,508 110,014,618 20.71 2,278,292,726 1,139,146
Mid Size Auto 17.0% 457,246 20 4,239,229,951 211,961,498 20.71 4,389,510,653 2,194,755
Sub Compact/Compact 27.1% 728,904 25 6,757,831,275 270,313,251 20.71 5,597,917,115 2,798,959
Hybrid cars 0.5% 13,448 40 124,683,234 3,117,081 20.71 64,551,627 32,276
Biodiesel cars 0.5% 13,448 40 124,683,234 3,117,081 20.71 64,551,627 32,276
Plug-in hybrid 0.5% 13,448 52 124,683,234 2,397,754 20.71 49,655,098 24,828
Electric cars 0.0% 0 60 0 0 20.71 0 0
Light-duty trucks / SUV 46.5% 1,250,702 14 11,595,540,748 828,252,911 20.71 17,152,289,526 8,576,145
Motorcycle (2WV) 0.4% 10,759 25 99,746,587 3,989,863 20.71 82,630,073 41,315
TOTAL 100.0% 2,689,682 24,936,646,771 1,433,164,057 20.71 29,679,398,445 14,839,699
15.00%
29

30. Transportation Scenario 1.3
1. Reduce Number of Vehicles and Need to Travel 2. Increase Efficiency in Fu
3. Reduce CO2
4. Extern
1.1 Land Use 1.2 Align Long Range Decrease Per Capita VMT by 30%
1.3 1.4
30

31. Transportation Scenario 1.4
1. Reduce Number of Vehicles and Need to Travel 2. Increase Efficiency in Fu
3. Reduce CO2
4. Extern
1.1 Land1.3 Decrease PerAccess,VMT by 30%and Efficiency of Public Transit
1.2 Align1.4 Improve Capita Availability
Use Long Range 1.5
• Transit is more
efficient mode in most
situations
• Won’t work for
everyone, but small
percentage increases
in ridership and trip
share have significant
impacts on CO2
emissions, congestion
31

32. Transportation Scenario 1.6
1. Reduce Number of Vehicles and Need to Travel 2. Increase Efficiency in Fu
3. Reduce CO2
4. Extern
1.1 Land1.3 Decrease Per Capita VMT by 30% to Bikes, Walking, Transit
1.2 Align1.4 1.5 1.6 Increase Mode Shift
Use Long Range
• Single Occupancy
Vehicle travel is
increasing
• Public transit and
carpooling %
decreasing
32

33. Transportation Scenario 2.1
1. Reduce2. Increase Efficiency of Remaining Vehicles
Number of Vehicles and Need to Travel 3. Reduce CO2 Inten
2.1 National Efficiency Standards 2.2 Smaller Vehicles 2.3 Hybrids
2005 Units MPG Utlization Emissions Factors
Gasonline Gasoline CO2 Short Tons
Avg. ANNUAL VMT
Vehicle Mix % # vehicles Consumption Emissions Factor Lbs/CO2 CO2
MPG Total
(Gallons) (lbs/CO2 per Gal) (1=2000lbs)
Full Size Auto 7.5% 201,726 17 2,200,292,362 129,428,962 20.71 2,680,344,384 1,340,172
Mid Size Auto 17.0% 457,246 20 4,987,329,354 249,366,468 20.71 5,164,130,180 2,582,065
Sub Compact/Compact 27.1% 728,904 25 7,950,389,735 318,015,589 20.71 6,585,784,841 3,292,892
Hybrid cars 0.5% 13,448 40 146,686,157 3,667,154 20.71 75,943,091 37,972
Biodiesel cars 0.5% 13,448 40 146,686,157 3,667,154 20.71 75,943,091 37,972
Plug-in hybrid 0.5% 13,448 52 146,686,157 2,820,888 20.71 58,417,762 29,209
Electric cars 0.0% 0 60 0 0 20.71 0 0
Light-duty trucks / SUV 46.5% 1,250,702 14 13,641,812,645 974,415,189 20.71 20,179,164,148 10,089,582
Motorcycle (2WV) 0.4% 10,759 25 117,348,926 4,693,957 20.71 97,211,850 48,606
TOTAL 100.0% 2,689,682 29,337,231,495 1,686,075,361 20.71 34,916,939,347 17,458,470
2030 Units MPG Utlization Emissions Factors
Gasonline Gasoline CO2 Short Tons
Avg. ANNUAL VMT
Vehicle Mix % # vehicles Consumption Emissions Factor Lbs/CO2 CO2
MPG Total
(Gallons) (lbs/CO2 per Gal) (1=2000lbs)
Full Size Auto 7.5% 201,726 25 2,200,292,362 88,011,694 20.71 1,822,634,181 911,317
Mid Size Auto 17.0% 457,246 28 4,987,329,354 178,118,906 20.71 3,688,664,414 1,844,332
Sub Compact/Compact 27.1% 728,904 35 7,950,389,735 227,153,992 20.71 4,704,132,029 2,352,066
Hybrid cars 0.5% 13,448 45 146,686,157 3,259,692 20.71 67,504,970 33,752
Biodiesel cars 0.5% 13,448 45 146,686,157 3,259,692 20.71 67,504,970 33,752
Plug-in hybrid 0.5% 13,448 52 146,686,157 2,820,888 20.71 58,417,762 29,209
Electric cars 0.0% 0 60 0 0 20.71 0 0
Light-duty trucks / SUV 46.5% 1,250,702 23 13,641,812,645 593,122,289 20.71 12,282,969,481 6,141,485
Motorcycle (2WV) 0.4% 10,759 25 117,348,926 4,693,957 20.71 97,211,850 48,606
TOTAL 100.0% 2,689,682 29,337,231,495 1,100,441,111 20.71 22,789,039,658 11,394,520
34.73%
33