GAD3 ha presentado en Marrakech un análisis de los “problemas actuales con las encuestas electorales y cómo resolverlos” en el 71 Congreso de la Asociación Mundial de Opinión Pública (WAPOR).

1. Current problems with electoral polls
and how to solve them
WAPOR 72th Annual Conference Marrakesh, 30th Jun 2018
Narciso Michavila @nmichavila
Sara Morais @smoraisv

2. Main problems
Social context
• Volatility
• Last minute decisions
• Difficulty to reach the youths
Political context
• New parties
• Fragmentation
• The paradox of the legislator 2.0
Media context
• Increasing pressure to anticipate results
• Confronted vision of journalists and social researches
• New actors
Economic limitations

3. Social context: which method?
Source: own analysis of Nate Silver’s electoral polls database.
Missed out of MOE: only 14% of the 1.442 polls published since 2.000 in the three last week s before
the elections, if they were done with human interviewers and belonged to an association (AAAPOR,
NCPP, Roper)

4. Political context: how control bias?
Due to the fragmentation, volatility, indecision, increased of strategic vote… we
cannot use the past vote to correct de bias anymore.
Elections for the Catalan Parliament

5. The importance of sample stratification
The use of the social and electoral data of every ZIP code is vital to be sure that the
sample is unbiased.
In the case of Spain we use 40 homogenous zones and check the 8.000 + ZIP codes.
The use of Tableu for the analysis is basic.

6. The importance of sample stratification
In the case of Colombia we use the 30+ regional zones (departament).

7. Political context: how control bias?

8. Political context: new parties
Catalans Elections 2017

9. Political context

10. Political context
Fragmentation is related to last minute decision: Around 30% of the electorate make their voting
decision during the electoral campaign, this is two weeks before the elections. Around 10% the same day
of the election. Methodological solution: do not stop interviewing until the previous 2 days.

11. Political context
Fragmentation is related to last minute decision: Around 30% of the electorate make their voting
decision during the electoral campaign, this is two weeks before the elections. Around 10% the same day
of the election. Methodological solution: do not stop interviewing until the previous 2 days.

12. Methodological solutions
1. Sample stratification with big data
2. Use proportional sampling
3. CATI methodology is preferable to online
4. Mix landline and mobile phones (50% aprox.)
5. Voice IP
6. All polls are made internally
7. Questionnaire length: the shorter the better
8. Train the interviewers
9. Fieldwork: The latter the better
10. Do not weight by past vote
11. Use the technology before the fieldwork not later
12. Every elections has its own method
13. Be flexible with the methodology
14. Work to publish

13. ¡Gracias!