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Technical Change and Industrial Dynamics
as Evolutionary Processes: Results and
Challenges ahead
Giovanni Dosi
The new Agenda for Innovation Studies and its Policy Implications
Madrid 13-14 March 2014
Some basic concepts and interpretations
More in
G. Dosi and R.R. Nelson , ‘Technical Change and Industrial
Dynamics as Evolutionary Processes’
in B.H. Hall and N. Rosenberg: Handbook of the Economics of Innovation-
Vol-I, Burlington: Academic Press, pp. 51-128, 2010
G. Dosi, Technical Change and Industrial Dynamics as Evolutionary Processes
Knowledge and organizational practices
behind input/output relations
G. Dosi, Technical Change and Industrial Dynamics as Evolutionary Processes
Complementary domains of analysis
Technology as
• knowledge
• procedures
• routines
• artifacts
G. Dosi, Technical Change and Industrial Dynamics as Evolutionary Processes
• Diversity of knowledge-bases across production and
Innovation Activities
• Diversity of sources of knowledge ….
• Diversity of procedures by which knowledge is
technologically exploited
G. Dosi, Technical Change and Industrial Dynamics as Evolutionary Processes
Evidence
The structure of technological knowledge:
Technological paradigms
• Selected physical/chemical principles and knowledge bases
• Notions of artifacts (e.g. dominant design)
• Specific heuristics (“how do we search?”, “where do we go
from here?”, …)
• Communities of practice
G. Dosi, Technical Change and Industrial Dynamics as Evolutionary Processes
An interpretative framework
Technological trajectories
• Mapping progress in
- product characteristics
- efficiencies in input use
• Relatively coherent “paths”
(e.g. the famous Moore‟s Law)
• Discontinuities in knowledge bases and “radical” innovations
generally associated with paradigm changes
G. Dosi, Technical Change and Industrial Dynamics as Evolutionary Processes
An interpretative framework
Dimensions of technological paradigms
• Opportunities of innovation
• Degrees of tacitness / codification of knowledge
• Cumulativeness in learning processes
• Degrees and forms of appropriability of innovation
G. Dosi, Technical Change and Industrial Dynamics as Evolutionary Processes
An interpretative framework
Dimensions of technological paradigms
• Organizational routines and organizational knowledge
• Competencies and capabilities (or what does it mean to say
that “firm X is good at doing Y...”?)
• The combinatorics amongst elements of organizational
competencies, routines and complementary assets
• Organizational capabilities and the historical and vertical
boundaries of the firm
G. Dosi, Technical Change and Industrial Dynamics as Evolutionary Processes
From the characteristics of knowledge to
organizational practices …
• Industry specific regimes (e.g. “Schumpeter Mark I”
and Mark II)
• Sectoral taxonomies
G. Dosi, Technical Change and Industrial Dynamics as Evolutionary Processes
…All the way to sectoral characteristics
• Technological capabilities
• Organizational forms
• Efficiencies
• Product characteristics
G. Dosi, Technical Change and Industrial Dynamics as Evolutionary Processes
Ubiquitous heterogeneity across firms
Driven by
• idiosyncratic learning
• entry
• competitive selection
G. Dosi, Technical Change and Industrial Dynamics as Evolutionary Processes
Industrial evolution
Which relative role of these forces?
Which dimensions and which shape of the
‘competitive landscape’?
G. Dosi, Technical Change and Industrial Dynamics as Evolutionary Processes
The drivers
[indeed not much progress over the last decade or more …
A lot to be done ahead …]
G. Dosi, Technical Change and Industrial Dynamics as Evolutionary Processes
Diffusion processes
• in diffusion …
• but also elsewhere …
[ … ahead, at which level and when?]
G. Dosi, Technical Change and Industrial Dynamics as Evolutionary Processes
Path-dependency
• National and sectoral systems of innovation
• (An emerging) evolutionary geography of innovation
G. Dosi, Technical Change and Industrial Dynamics as Evolutionary Processes
The institutional and spatial embeddedness of
technological change
More on the challenges ahead
G. Dosi, Technical Change and Industrial Dynamics as Evolutionary Processes
Technological and organziational innovation
and, relatedly,
Technological vs. organizational
discontinuities
G. Dosi, Technical Change and Industrial Dynamics as Evolutionary Processes
Formalizing a knowledge-procedure-centered
theory of production
G. Dosi, Technical Change and Industrial Dynamics as Evolutionary Processes
• Disentangling the opaque relationship between
organizational practices and outcome …
• Replicability within the organization …
• Shielding organization - specific practices …
G. Dosi, Technical Change and Industrial Dynamics as Evolutionary Processes
Knowledge, organizational practices and
performances
• From the statistical regularities to the models and back
• The statistics / microeconometrics of evolutionary
processes
• Some crucial challenges
- the status of replicator dynamics
- „history friendly‟ models
- ABM formalizations
G. Dosi, Technical Change and Industrial Dynamics as Evolutionary Processes
The properties of industrial evolutions
The underlying general ambition:
offering an alternative microfoundation
to macrodynamics
G. Dosi, Technical Change and Industrial Dynamics as Evolutionary Processes

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Giovanni Dosi - Seminario 'Nuevos enfoques sobre políticas de innovación'

  • 1. Technical Change and Industrial Dynamics as Evolutionary Processes: Results and Challenges ahead Giovanni Dosi The new Agenda for Innovation Studies and its Policy Implications Madrid 13-14 March 2014
  • 2. Some basic concepts and interpretations More in G. Dosi and R.R. Nelson , ‘Technical Change and Industrial Dynamics as Evolutionary Processes’ in B.H. Hall and N. Rosenberg: Handbook of the Economics of Innovation- Vol-I, Burlington: Academic Press, pp. 51-128, 2010 G. Dosi, Technical Change and Industrial Dynamics as Evolutionary Processes
  • 3. Knowledge and organizational practices behind input/output relations G. Dosi, Technical Change and Industrial Dynamics as Evolutionary Processes
  • 4. Complementary domains of analysis Technology as • knowledge • procedures • routines • artifacts G. Dosi, Technical Change and Industrial Dynamics as Evolutionary Processes
  • 5. • Diversity of knowledge-bases across production and Innovation Activities • Diversity of sources of knowledge …. • Diversity of procedures by which knowledge is technologically exploited G. Dosi, Technical Change and Industrial Dynamics as Evolutionary Processes Evidence
  • 6. The structure of technological knowledge: Technological paradigms • Selected physical/chemical principles and knowledge bases • Notions of artifacts (e.g. dominant design) • Specific heuristics (“how do we search?”, “where do we go from here?”, …) • Communities of practice G. Dosi, Technical Change and Industrial Dynamics as Evolutionary Processes An interpretative framework
  • 7. Technological trajectories • Mapping progress in - product characteristics - efficiencies in input use • Relatively coherent “paths” (e.g. the famous Moore‟s Law) • Discontinuities in knowledge bases and “radical” innovations generally associated with paradigm changes G. Dosi, Technical Change and Industrial Dynamics as Evolutionary Processes An interpretative framework
  • 8. Dimensions of technological paradigms • Opportunities of innovation • Degrees of tacitness / codification of knowledge • Cumulativeness in learning processes • Degrees and forms of appropriability of innovation G. Dosi, Technical Change and Industrial Dynamics as Evolutionary Processes An interpretative framework
  • 9. Dimensions of technological paradigms • Organizational routines and organizational knowledge • Competencies and capabilities (or what does it mean to say that “firm X is good at doing Y...”?) • The combinatorics amongst elements of organizational competencies, routines and complementary assets • Organizational capabilities and the historical and vertical boundaries of the firm G. Dosi, Technical Change and Industrial Dynamics as Evolutionary Processes From the characteristics of knowledge to organizational practices …
  • 10. • Industry specific regimes (e.g. “Schumpeter Mark I” and Mark II) • Sectoral taxonomies G. Dosi, Technical Change and Industrial Dynamics as Evolutionary Processes …All the way to sectoral characteristics
  • 11. • Technological capabilities • Organizational forms • Efficiencies • Product characteristics G. Dosi, Technical Change and Industrial Dynamics as Evolutionary Processes Ubiquitous heterogeneity across firms
  • 12. Driven by • idiosyncratic learning • entry • competitive selection G. Dosi, Technical Change and Industrial Dynamics as Evolutionary Processes Industrial evolution
  • 13. Which relative role of these forces? Which dimensions and which shape of the ‘competitive landscape’? G. Dosi, Technical Change and Industrial Dynamics as Evolutionary Processes
  • 14. The drivers [indeed not much progress over the last decade or more … A lot to be done ahead …] G. Dosi, Technical Change and Industrial Dynamics as Evolutionary Processes Diffusion processes
  • 15. • in diffusion … • but also elsewhere … [ … ahead, at which level and when?] G. Dosi, Technical Change and Industrial Dynamics as Evolutionary Processes Path-dependency
  • 16. • National and sectoral systems of innovation • (An emerging) evolutionary geography of innovation G. Dosi, Technical Change and Industrial Dynamics as Evolutionary Processes The institutional and spatial embeddedness of technological change
  • 17. More on the challenges ahead G. Dosi, Technical Change and Industrial Dynamics as Evolutionary Processes
  • 18. Technological and organziational innovation and, relatedly, Technological vs. organizational discontinuities G. Dosi, Technical Change and Industrial Dynamics as Evolutionary Processes
  • 19. Formalizing a knowledge-procedure-centered theory of production G. Dosi, Technical Change and Industrial Dynamics as Evolutionary Processes
  • 20. • Disentangling the opaque relationship between organizational practices and outcome … • Replicability within the organization … • Shielding organization - specific practices … G. Dosi, Technical Change and Industrial Dynamics as Evolutionary Processes Knowledge, organizational practices and performances
  • 21. • From the statistical regularities to the models and back • The statistics / microeconometrics of evolutionary processes • Some crucial challenges - the status of replicator dynamics - „history friendly‟ models - ABM formalizations G. Dosi, Technical Change and Industrial Dynamics as Evolutionary Processes The properties of industrial evolutions
  • 22. The underlying general ambition: offering an alternative microfoundation to macrodynamics G. Dosi, Technical Change and Industrial Dynamics as Evolutionary Processes