El jueves 15 de febrero de 2018 se realizó una conferencia en la Fundación Ramón Areces sobre la nueva geopolítica de la energía, impartida por David Shandalow, es Inaugural Fellow en el Global Energy Policy Center y co-director del Energy and Environment Concentration en la School of International and Public Affairs de la Universidad de Columbia University.
17. US Natural Gas Production
2000-2016
17
US Dry Gas Production
Bcf/day
Source: EIA Annual Energy Outlook 2016
30
35
40
45
50
55
60
65
70
75
80
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
Other Shale gas
18. US Shale Gas Resource Is Huge
18
US Natural Gas Supply Curve, Henry Hub Breakeven Price
Trillion cubic feet, $ per MMBtu
Source: IHS
-12
-10
-8
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
0 200 400 600 800 1,000 1,200 1,400 1,600 1,800 2,000
830 Tcf at < $3 per MMBtu
1,400+ Tcf at < $4 per MMBtu
~30 years
of current consumption
~50 years
of current consumption
19. US LNG Export Capacity Growing
19
US LNG Export Capacity Under Construction, Commissioning, and in Operation
Bcf per day
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
8.0
9.0
10.0
Jan-
16
Jul-
16
Jan-
17
Jul-
17
Jan-
18
Jul-
18
Jan-
19
Jul-
19
Jan-
20
Jul-
20
Sabine Pass Cove Point Cameron Freeport Corpus Christi Elba Island
Source:
Company disclosures
20. 20
A Changing Global Gas Order
Source: IEA WEO 2017
39%
59%
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
2016 2040
LNG Pipeline
Global Gas Trade by Mode
Billion cubic meters
33. Chinese Coal Consumption
1990-2014
- million short tons
Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
4000
4500
5000
34. CO2 Emissions
(1980-2016)
Source: BP Statistical Review of World Energy 2017
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
8000
9000
10000
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
China
US
MilliontonnesCO2
37. ENERGY TECHNOLOGY AND GEOPOLITCS --
EIGHT TRENDS
1. Renewable Energy Revolution
2. Shale Revolution
3. Rise of China
4. Attack on Globalization
37
38.
39. ENERGY TECHNOLOGY AND GEOPOLITCS --
EIGHT TRENDS
1. Renewable Energy Revolution
2. Shale Revolution
3. Rise of China
4. Attack on Globalization
5. Saudi-Russia Rapprochement
39
41. ENERGY TECHNOLOGY AND GEOPOLITCS --
EIGHT TRENDS
1. Renewable Energy Revolution
2. Shale Revolution
3. Rise of China
4. Attack on Globalization
5. Saudi-Russia Rapprochement
6. Melting Arctic
41
46. ENERGY TECHNOLOGY AND GEOPOLITCS --
EIGHT TRENDS
1. Renewable Energy Revolution
2. Shale Revolution
3. Rise of China
4. Attack on Globalization
5. Saudi-Russia Rapprochement
6. Melting Arctic
7. Coal – Plateau or Long Decline?
46
56. ENERGY TECHNOLOGY AND GEOPOLITCS --
EIGHT TRENDS
1. Renewable Energy Revolution
2. Shale Revolution
3. Rise of China
4. Attack on Globalization
5. Saudi-Russia Rapprochement
6. Melting Arctic
7. Coal – Plateau or Long Decline?
8. Transportation Revolution
56
60. ENERGY TECHNOLOGY AND GEOPOLITCS --
EIGHT TRENDS
1. Renewable Energy Revolution
2. Shale Revolution
3. Rise of China
4. Attack on Globalization
5. Saudi-Russia Rapprochement
6. Melting Arctic
7. Coal – Plateau or Long Decline?
8. Transportation Revolution
60
61. ENERGY TECHNOLOGY AND GEOPOLITCS --
EIGHT TRENDS
1. Renewable Energy Revolution
2. Shale Revolution
-----
3. Rise of China
4. Attack on Globalization
5. Saudi-Russia Rapprochement
6. Melting Arctic
---
7. Coal – Plateau or Long Decline?
8. Transportation Revolution
61
The one country where the golden age has truly happened is the US
Stunning turnaround in US gas position
The US resource base is huge – IHS estimates that 1,400 Tcf (50+ years of current consumption) is available at below $4 HH breakeven, and more 800 Tcf (30+ years of current consumption) is available at $3 HH breakeven.
Every reason to expect supply growth to continue.
The supply curve is very flat
Bottom line: lots of cheap gas in North America
These are the projects already under way.
Almost 90% of additional gas trade in the period to 2040 is in the form of LNG