Alternative proteins could substitute traditional proteins, if production cost can be substantially reduced. Cell-based protein production replicates the processes that occur inside a living animal to produce meat. In precision fermentation, gene-edited microbes can make a wide range of organic molecules, such as protein. Swine and ruminants are more susceptible to disruption than poultry, as their easy-to-substitute mince products make up a higher share of value, while substitution of animal-based proteins also opens up new growth platforms, as growing world population still need proteins, albeit from different sources

1. 0
Perspective on alternative proteins

2. © 2020 Monitor Deloitte The Netherlands
Note: (1) R consists of various combinations of C, H, N, O and, for some types, S; (2) The other 11 amino acids that protein can consist of, can be made inside the human body by biosynthesizing molecules
Source: World Health Organization
Humans need protein for growing and maintaining cells
Perspective on alternative proteins
1
Human Body
Uses proteins for growing
and maintaining cells
Protein
Nine essential types of
amino acids must be directly
acquired via nutrition2
Series of amino acids linked by
peptide bonds
Peptide bond
Twenty types of amino acids exist
in the human body, as determined
by their variable group (R)1
Amino acid 1 Amino acid 2

3. © 2020 Monitor Deloitte The Netherlands
Note: (1) And a wide range of other organic molecules; (2) In Western Europe and North America
Source: Deloitte ‘Future of protein’; WEF (2019) ‘White paper alternative proteins’; RethinkX (2019) ‘Rethinking food and agriculture 2020-2030’; FAO
Alternative proteins could substitute traditional proteins ...
Perspective on alternative proteins
2
Traditional vs Alternative Proteins
Steak, milk, ...
Minced meat, cheese, ...
Insect
salad
Insect
burger
Boiled beans, salad, ...
Algae
salad
Algae
burger
Tofu, vegetable burgers, oat
milk, ...
Processing
degree
Individ.
protein1
Animal
Bird
• Poultry
• ...
Insect
• Crickets
• Larvae
• ...
Fish
• Salmon
• Shrimp
• ...
Mammal
• Cattle
• Pig
• Sheep
• ...
Other
• Reptiles
• Amphi-
bians
• ...
Plant
Nuts &
seeds
• Cashew
• Hemp
seeds
• ...
Vege-
tables
• Kale
• Broccoli
• ...
Legumes
• Soy
• Chickpeas
• Beans
• ...
Other
• Cereals
• Fruits
• Fungi
• ...
Algae
• Seaweed
• Micro-
algae
• ...
Synthetic
Precision
fermen-
tation
• Gene-
edited
microbes
Cell-
based
• Animal
cells
Meat,
milk, ...
Mycopro-
tein, ...
Mush-
rooms
Traditional proteins
>99% of current protein supply2
Alternative proteins
<1% of current protein supply2

4. © 2020 Monitor Deloitte The Netherlands
Protein Quality and Current Cost
Note: (1) Protein Digestibility Corrected Amino Acid Score (1=highest); (2) Fixed and variable cost for production in the UK; (3) kg CO2 equivalent emissions (e.g. 1 kg methane is equivalent to 25 kg CO2 emissions)
Source: USDA; WEF (2019) ‘White paper alternative proteins’; Various research papers; RethinkX (2019) ‘Rethinking food and agriculture 2020-2030’
... if production cost can be substantially reduced
Perspective on alternative proteins
3
Quality Current Cost
Protein content
(g protein / 100g)
Amino acids
(PDCAAS)1
Production
($ / 100 g protein)2
Environmental
(CO2 / 100 g protein)3
Synthetic
Cell-based • Cultured beef 25.2 0.92 32.1 91.0
Prec. fermentation • Milk powder 26.0 1.00 10.0
Animal
Mammal
• Beef 25.2 0.92 5.3 114.9
• Pork 25.8 4.0 23.1
• Milk 3.3 1.00 2.7
Bird
• Chicken 25.8 0.95 10.7 23.8
• Eggs 12.6 1.00 3.9
Fish • Salmon 20.0 13.7
Insect • Silkworm 63.9 1.00 17.1 2.2
Plant
Legumes
• Tofu 10.0 0.91 10.4 12.5
• Chickpeas 5.4 0.78 6.0 18.7
Nuts & seeds • Hemp seed 19.5 0.66 12.4 6.2
Vegetables • Broccoli 0.9 0.73 9.1
Algae • Spirulina 57.4 0.85 9.1 11.1

5. © 2020 Monitor Deloitte The Netherlands
Cell-based - Production Process
Source: Good Food Institute (2020) ‘Meat by the molecule: Cultivated meat 101’; Growing Meat Sustainably ‘The clean meat revolution’
Cell-based protein production replicates the processes that occur inside a living animal
to produce meat
Perspective on alternative proteins
4
Animal Biopsy Bioreactor or Cultivator Final Product
• Sample of cells is
obtained from an animal
• Cells are inserted into a
closed sterile tank with
nutrients (‘medium’) to
naturally multiply
• Multiplication happens in
a ‘scaffold’ to create
right texture
• Muscle fibers form
strands of muscle tissue
• Strands of muscle
tissue are layered to
obtain meat
• Same biological
process that happens
inside an animal is
facilitated by providing
warmth, water, proteins,
carbohydrates, fats,
vitamins, and minerals
Cell-based

6. © 2020 Monitor Deloitte The Netherlands
Cell-based - Cost ($ / beef)
Note: Other costs include sales, marketing and operational overheads. Fixed costs of production (facilities, upfront investment etc.) are not included in this view; (1) Applies to the ingredients in the ‘basal medium’ as
well as the supplementary ingredients; (2) Costs of scaffolding is likely to vary for different product types (e.g. steak, legs, ribs)
Source: RethinkX (2019) ‘Rethinking food and agriculture 2020-2030’; Good Food Institute (2020) ‘An analysis of culture medium costs and production volumes for cultivated meat’; Monitor Deloitte analysis
Costs for cell-based production have potential to decrease through cost reduction in
cell culture medium, which currently makes up 80-90% of the production cost
Perspective on alternative proteins
Future (>5 yrs)
~99%
~80%
~20%
Now
~1%
-50-80%
CONCEPTUAL
5
Cost Drivers
Cell culture
medium
Medium costs could fall by 4,000 times, from about
$400/L today to less than $0.10/L by 2030 – driven by:1
• Commercialization in sourcing of bulk materials
(sodium bicarbonate, glucose)
• Substitution of specialty ingredients from pharma
grade to food grade (e.g. amino acids, vitamins)
• Utilization of precision fermentation to produce
complex growth factor proteins (e.g. FGF-2, TGF-β)
Additional cost savings from:
• Innovation (precision fermentation can be used to create
scaffolds for further performance improvement)2
• Good manufacturing practices and economies of scale
Other (SG&A) • Other cost are expected to remain stable
Cell-based

7. © 2020 Monitor Deloitte The Netherlands
10
Cell-based - Cost
Source: Israel21C; Reuters; Mosa Meat; RethinkX (2019) ‘Rethinking food and agriculture 2020-2030’; Good Food Institute (2020) ‘Analysis of culture medium costs and production volumes for cultivated meat’
Cell-based beef could reach cost parity with conventional beef in the near term, with
varying views on the exact pace
Perspective on alternative proteins
Cell-based beef
Cow beef
10,000,000
100,000
1,000
6
Forecast
’14
’13 ’16
’15 ’17 ’18 ’19 ’20
8
’21 ’22 ’23 ’24 ’25 ’26 ’27
6
’28 ’29
0
’30
2
4 -67%
Cost
($
/
kg
beef)
Mosa Meat world’s
first cell-based
meat hamburger
Memphis
Meat
~$5,300
Future Meat
Technologies
~$40,000
~$800
~$1.2m
$10 / kg beef
in ’23
Cost parity
in ’25-’26
Cow beef cost
increase due to
loss of scale
Fundamental cost advantages of cell-
based over cow beef:
• Higher feed conversion rate (25% vs
4%)
• Faster production cycle (~2 weeks vs.
~3 years)
• Shorter supply chain
Cell-based
The direction to cost competitiveness of cell-based meat is clear, the view on the exact pace varies

8. © 2020 Monitor Deloitte The Netherlands
Cell-based - Performance
Note: (1) To start resembling a realistic steak with full flavor, texture and nutrient content, lab-grown muscle needs to incorporate e.g. fat and connective tissue, each requiring own specialized growth environment
Source: RethinkX (2019) ‘Rethinking food and agriculture 2020-2030’; Harvard University (2018) ‘How bioengineering could change meat production’; Good Food Institute (2019) ‘Cultivated meat state o/t industry’
Cell-based meat production has potential to provide food that is of high quality, with
high consumer appeal, and more sustainable than conventional animal agriculture
Perspective on alternative proteins
7
Product
quality
• Next to minced beef, current experiments include chicken nuggets and fish croquettes
• Genetically identical to conventional animal products, but differences in texture
• Potential for a direct one-for-one substitution – however technology for structured meat (e.g.
steak) less mature, owing to structural complexity and need for different types of cell tissues1
Consumer
appeal
• Innovator and early adopter segments could purchase cell-based meat once commercial
− ~33% likely to regularly purchase cell-based meat
− ~20% willing to pay a higher price for cell-based meat than for its conventional counterpart
(e.g. Dutch consumers indicate that they are willing to pay nearly 40% more)
• Analysis of consumer attitudes also predicts an increase in adoption over time as affordability,
taste appeal, and cultural normalization are demonstrated in the marketplace
Environmental
impact
• Potential for lower greenhouse gas emissions than industrial animal agriculture
− No animal waste that currently contributes to extensive soil and water pollution
− Estimated to reduce land use by more than 95%, climate change emissions by 75%–85%,
and nutrient pollution by 95% (compared to conventional beef)
• Absolute emission levels will depend on electricity mix
Cell-based

9. © 2020 Monitor Deloitte The Netherlands
Precision Fermentation - Production Process
Note: (1) E.g. methanethiol, only for two types of amino acids; (2) Using CRISPR-Cas9
Source: RethinkX (2019) ‘Rethinking food and agriculture 2020-2030’; Good Food Institute (2018) ‘Cellular agriculture’; US National Library of Medicine (2019) ‘What are genome editing and CRISPR-Cas9?’
In precision fermentation, gene-edited microbes can make a wide range of organic
molecules, such as protein
Perspective on alternative proteins
8
Fermentation tank Desired (animal) protein Final product
• Inputs are inserted in
fermentation tank which
simulates conditions of
cow rumen
• Desired protein is
produced by microbes,
following ‘instruction
manual’ from edited DNA
• Protein is mixed with
other ingredients (water,
soy) to make final
product (milk, burger)
Precision fermentation
Input
• Carbohydrate (e.g.
glucose), nitrogen (e.g.
ammonium salt) and
sulfur1 source are feed
• Gene for protein is
inserted in microbe DNA2
Animal gene Microbe
(e.g. fungi, yeast,
bacteria)

10. © 2020 Monitor Deloitte The Netherlands
Precision Fermentation - Cost ($ / protein)
Note: Fixed costs of production (facilities, upfront investment etc.) are not included in this view;
Source: RethinkX (2019) ‘Rethinking food and agriculture 2020-2030’; Utrecht University (2009) ‘Understanding the reductions in US corn ethanol production costs’; Stanbury et al. (2016) ‘Principles of fermentation
technology’; Stanford medicine (2018) ‘CRISPR is a revolutionary gene editing tool’; Monitor Deloitte analyses
Precision fermentation cost could decrease significantly as a result of increased
operating efficiency and scale ...
Perspective on alternative proteins
~99%
Now
~90%
Future (>5 yrs)
-60-90%
CONCEPTUAL
9
Cost Drivers
Fermentation
cost
• Purification cost decrease exponentially when producing
at non-pharma quality
• Gene editing cost decrease with more efficient use of
CRISPR-Cas9 and other innovations, as well as increased
production volume per edited gene
• Fermentation tank cost decrease as tanks increase in
size (5,000L to >100,000L) and control systems are
used at scale
• Other operating cost decrease along experience curve
(e.g. corn ethanol fermentation shows -15% per doubling
of cumulative volume)
Feed and
microbe input
• Glucose cost as carbohydrate source decrease as
conversion increases from 3:1 to 2:1
• Other input cost for nitrogen and sulfur sources as well
as microbes do not change
Precision fermentation

11. © 2020 Monitor Deloitte The Netherlands
10,000,000
1,000,000
100
10,000,000,000
1
10
10,000
1,000
100,000
100,000,000
1,000,000,000
’05 ’10
Cost
($
/
kg
of
PF
protein)
’85 ’90 ’95 ’20
’00 ’15 ’25 ’30 ’35
Precision Fermentation - Cost
Source: RethinkX (2019) ‘Rethinking food and agriculture 2020-2030’
... after already having decreased by several orders of magnitude in the past
Perspective on alternative proteins
10
$ 100 / kg protein in ’18,
enabled by breakthroughs in:
• computing power
• data storage
• genome sequencing
$ 1 / kg
protein in ’35
-7x orders of magnitude
(’88-’18)
-2x orders of magnitude
(’18-’35)
$ 10 / kg
protein in ’26
Forecast
Insulin, the first
PF substitute of
an animal product,
received FDA
approval in ’82
First production of
PF rennet for cheese
making in ’90
PF is used
predominantly for
medicine, vitamin and
flavorant production
Fundamental cost advantages
of PF over animal products:
• Higher feed conversion rate
(40-80% vs 4%)
• Faster ‘time to slaughter’
(weeks vs ~3 years)
• Shorter supply chain
Precision fermentation

12. © 2020 Monitor Deloitte The Netherlands
Precision Fermentation - Cost
Note: (1) Share PF protein ingredients is initially low but increases over time
Source: RethinkX (2019) ‘Rethinking food and agriculture 2020-2030’
Beef and milk substitutes using precision fermentation proteins could become more
cost competitive than their animal counterparts in the near term
Perspective on alternative proteins
11
’30
’18
2
5
’24
6
’20 ’28
’22 ’26
8
0
1
3
4
7
9
10
Cost
($
/
kg
beef)
-84%
Cost parity
in ’21
20
’24
’18
0
’28 ’30
’20 ’26
’22
5
30
10
15
25
Cost
($
/
kg
of
milk
protein)
-86%
Precision fermentation milk protein Whey Casein
Precision fermentation beef Cow beef
Cell-based beef
Cost parity
in ’24-’25
Precision fermentation beef
(plant-based product with PF protein ingredients1)
Precision fermentation milk protein
(PF milk protein powder)
Precision fermentation
The direction to cost competitiveness of precision fermentation is clear, the view on the exact pace varies

13. © 2020 Monitor Deloitte The Netherlands
Precision Fermentation - Performance
Precision fermentation allows substitute products to taste nearly identical to animal
products, at better nutritional values and lower environmental impact
Perspective on alternative proteins
12
Product
quality
• Precision fermentation ingredients can make substitute products that taste nearly identical to
animal products (e.g. milk protein and water, adding heme or animal fats to soy burgers)
• Nutritional value can be better than animal products (e.g. less cholesterol, less carcinogenic)
• Precision fermentation has no potential to replicate full animal products, only ingredients
Consumer
appeal
• Main drivers of consumer appeal for precision fermentation-based products are:
− Better for health
− Better for environment
− Better for animal welfare
Environmental
impact
• Precision fermentation has lower emissions per kg protein than beef
− More efficient production (no carcass, faster production cycle)
− No methane emissions in contrast to cattle (methane counts for 25 CO2 equivalents)
• Absolute emissions level of precision fermentation will depend on electricity mix and resources
used
Precision fermentation

14. © 2020 Monitor Deloitte The Netherlands
Dynamics of disruption of proteins
Source: RethinkX (2019) ‘Rethinking food and agriculture 2020-2030’
Increasing demand for modern foods could increase economies of scale, leading to
greater improvement in cost and capabilities, driving further increases in demand
Perspective on alternative proteins
13
Animal agriculture is a low-margin business where small shifts in demand can have large impacts
More variety
Economies of scale
Better capacity
More public acceptance
Lower cost
Higher revenues
Higher margins
More investment
More government support
Reverse economies of scale
Less public acceptance
Higher cost
Lower revenues
Lower margins
Less investment
Less government support
Loss of ‘social license’
Synthetic protein ‘virtuous cycle’ Animal protein ‘vicious cycle’
More
supply
More
demand
Less
supply
Less
demand

15. © 2020 Monitor Deloitte The Netherlands
Start-up
Country Product Growth thesis Partners
ANH end market
substitution /
increased comp.
(funding)
($324m) (CA)
• Chicken nuggets
• Has existing plant-based egg
substitute
• Apply for regulatory approval in
several countries and launch
product where obtained first
• Use brand name and retail access of
existing products
US:
EU:
($180m) (CA)
• Hamburgers from beef,
chicken and duck nuggets
• Produce multiple products in agnostic
technology to achieve further scale
• Build pilot production facility to prove
scalability, cost reduction and safety
($24m) (CA)
• Yellowtail, tuna and
salmon fillets
• Target premium restaurant market
first with quality product of whole
fillets of various species
• Build small production facility for first
volumes
($14m)
• Cell-based fats as food
ingredient
• Focus effort on single ingredient, for
cell-based & traditional premium
foods
• Beat animal fats on health (omega-3,
low saturated)
Cell-based - Startup Examples (1/2)
Note: Start-ups selected to show spread in product and geography; (1) Mosa Meat explores using Cubiq’s fat in its own products
Source: Pitchbook; Good Food Institute (2019) ‘Cultivated meat: State of the industry’; Company websites; Monitor Deloitte analysis
Products of start-ups in cell-based protein production could decrease the need for the
animals that form a substantial part of ’s primary customer base
Perspective on alternative proteins
14
Cell-based
1
Ruminants
Poultry
Aqua
Swine
Pet
Ruminants
Poultry
Aqua
Swine
Pet
Ruminants
Poultry
Aqua
Swine
Pet
Ruminants
Poultry
Aqua
Swine
Pet

16. © 2020 Monitor Deloitte The Netherlands
Start-up
Country Product Growth thesis Partners
ANH end market
substitution /
increased comp.
(funding)
($14m)
• Minute (i.e. thin) beefsteak
• Develop steaks which has higher
value than mince
• Sell at slight premium to restaurant
(down from cost price of $50 per steak
today)
($9m)
• b2b package with
standardised technology for
cell production (for food and
materials)
• Tech allows low cost pro-duction so
that customers can focus on product
dev.
• Prove concept by producing e.g. foie
gras and cosmetics
($8m)
• Hamburgers from beef
mince
• Further reduce medium cost by
reducing quality from pharma grade
(current supplier is Merck) to food
grade
($3m) (CA)
• Pork sausage
• Investment to accelerate R&D and
production
• Opportunity for non-food applications
e.g. therapeutics and organ transplant
n/a
($3m) (PA)
• Pet food, probiotic
supplement using nutritional
yeast and cell-based mice
• First develop premium product of cat
treat
• Working on scaling to nutritionally-
complete foods for cats and dogs
n/a
Cell-based - Startup Examples (2/2)
Note: Start-ups selected to show spread in product and geography
Source: Pitchbook; Good Food Institute (2019) ‘Cultivated meat: State of the industry’; Company websites; Monitor Deloitte analysis
... and could be a threat for by increasing competition on its product segments
Perspective on alternative proteins
15
Cell-based
Ruminants
Poultry
Aqua
Swine
Pet
Ruminants
Poultry
Aqua
Swine
Pet
Ruminants
Poultry
Aqua
Swine
Pet
Ruminants
Poultry
Aqua
Swine
Pet
Ruminants
Poultry
Aqua
Swine
Pet

17. © 2020 Monitor Deloitte The Netherlands
Start-up
Country Product Growth thesis Partners
ANH end market
substitution /
increased comp.
(funding)
($1.3b) (CA)
• Soy beef burger and pork
sausage enhanced with PF
heme (leghemo-globin)
• Enhance plant-based burger to be
indistinguishable from animal, to win
global market for meat substitutes
• First in restaurants, now also in
supermarkets
($197m) (CA)
• Ice cream, butter and milk
using PF milk protein and
PF milk fat
• First win share in animal-free
premium ice cream
• Then scale milk production to have
identical product at lower cost but
better for health and environment
($118m) (MA)
• PF protein and fats
ingredients to substitute
animal ones or to enhance
plant-based products
• Win in b2b market for ingredients
through broad portfolio with
performance customisable to client
needs
($54m) (NY)
• Leather from PF collagen
• Differentiate on product quality (shape
and size) and animal-free for high
fashion
• Produce at Evonik Slovakia plant,
expand to pharma
Precision Fermentation - Startup Examples (1/2)
Note: Start-ups selected to show spread in product and geography; (1) Also investor in the start-up; (2) Motif is a spin-off of Ginkgo
Source: Pitchbook; Cell-based tech weekly; Company websites; Monitor Deloitte analysis
Also in precision fermentation, growth in start-ups could mean less need for animals ...
Perspective on alternative proteins
16
2
Commercial Precision fermentation
3
Ruminants
Poultry
Aqua
Swine
Pet
Ruminants
Poultry
Aqua
Swine
Pet
Ruminants
Poultry
Aqua
Swine
Pet
Ruminants
Poultry
Aqua
Swine
Pet
2

18. © 2020 Monitor Deloitte The Netherlands
Precision Fermentation - Startup Examples (2/2)
Start-up
Country Product Growth thesis Partners
ANH end market
substitution /
increased comp.
(funding)
($45m) (CA)
• Egg protein ingredients for
e.g. protein drinks or baking
products
• Win in b2b ingredient mkt, first with
better perfor-mance (e.g. taste,
foaming)
• Scale production to achieve lower
cost than chicken egg
($23m) (CA)
• Cosmetics with PF human
collagen and elastin proteins
• Differentiate on product quality and
animal-free to sell at premium
• Develop collagen for food and pharma
with Gelita
($16m) (CA)
• Pet food (dogs) with PF
protein1
• Develop cheapest complete PF protein
(not imitating existing animal protein)
• Sell at premium to vegan pet owners
($1m) (CO)
• PF protein-based cheese
• Differentiate on better taste and
nutrition than other non-animal (100%
plant-based) cheeses
Note: Start-ups selected to show spread in product and geography; (1) Also developing cell-based mice meat for cat food; (2) Also investor in the start-up; (3) stabilised hemoglobin and hydrolysed globin
Source: Pitchbook; Cell-based tech weekly; Company websites; Monitor Deloitte analysis
... and increased competition in ’s product segments
Perspective on alternative proteins
17
Commercial
Precision fermentation
2
2
2 Ruminants
Poultry
Aqua
Swine
Pet
Ruminants
Poultry
Aqua
Swine
Pet
Ruminants
Poultry
Aqua
Swine
Pet
Ruminants
Poultry
Aqua
Swine
Pet
2

19. © 2020 Monitor Deloitte The Netherlands
Volume and Value Composition by Species
Source: University of Tennesee; Oklahoma Department of Agriculture; Monitor Deloitte analysis
Swine and ruminants are more susceptible to disruption than poultry, as their easy-to-
substitute mince products make up a higher share of value
Perspective on alternative proteins
18
15%
25%
25%
35%
15%
25%
10%
10%
35%
5%
Mince
Volume Value
By-product
Chops
Ham &
bacon
Roast
20%
55%
25%
25%
10%
12%
25%
5%
20%
Legs
Volume Value
Wings
Breast
By-product
(other)
By-product
(carcass)
15%
50%
35%
40%
50%
10%
Volume Value
Steak
Mince
By-product
1. Profit lost to
substitution must
be recuperated
on other products
2. Other products
increase in price,
further decreasing
demand
Just chicken nugget
Example
substitute:
Impossible Pork Burger
Poultry Ruminants
Swine
INDICATIVE
High Limited
Synthetic protein activity: Moderate
Memphis Meat burger Aleph Farms steak
3%

20. © 2020 Monitor Deloitte The Netherlands
Synthetic Protein Threat and Opportunity
… while substitution of animal-based proteins also opens up new growth platforms, as
growing world population still need proteins, albeit from different sources
Perspective on alternative proteins
19
Opportunity for to
leverage existing
capabilities into adjacent
growth market
While synthetic proteins have the potential to mark a
decline of an industry which contains majority of ’s
conventional end markets …
… growth in synthetic protein market also offers new
growth opportunities, e.g.:
• Leverage fermentation expertise
• Provide specialty yeasts for precision fermentation
• Provide specialty food ingredients to synthetic protein
food producers
• …
Declining
animal-
based protein
industry and
associated
end markets
Growing
synthetic protein
market requires
new ingredients

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