Presentation for London investment week 19.02.2015 final edit

London Investor Show
Trends for 2016:
The Silent Megacrash & Depression,
creeping up on you
since 2011
with Francis D Hunt aka ‘The Market Sniper’

Introduction & Session Plan
www.TheMarketSniper.com©2015 – The Market Sniper
1. Introduction
 Who am I?
 Why should you care?
 What I am going to tell you today
2. The Detail
 I. MegaCrash Part 1 – The Banks
 III. MegaCrash Part 2 – China, Cargo & Commodities
 III. MegaCrash Part 3 – The Indices

Introduction & Session Plan
4. Summary & Conclusion
5. A small quick fire slide of predictions
6. Your Personal Solution.. And must do’s right now!
7. Learn More Quickly
8. How to engage me, should you wish
9. Questions

Part 1 - Who am I?
 Trading for 26 years across most markets
 Originator of the Hunt Volatility Funnel [HVF] Set up & Theory
 MBA in International Finance & Economics
 Member of the STA

Why should you care?
So what?
Utilising HVF Theory – Landed Major investing & trading Themes, e.g.–
1. Euro Crisis, Mk I, Mk II & MK III
• EURCHF floor to fail in January 2015 – for a 30% FX Trade
overnight
• EURCHF Nov 2009 Fail prediction for 1400 pips & preceding the
2010 Jan ‘Greek Crisis Mk I’

Eurozone Crisis & Later 2015 Floor fail

Floor Fail in January EURCHF

30% FX move in under an hour

Retail Broker cost of Floor Fail in EURCHF

The Great Energy sell off - Brent 2014

The September Equity 2014, deflation sell off

The August Equity 2015, sell off. We traded USDJPY for a 62.5 RRR

The August Equity 2015, sell off. The break for Indices

The August Equity 2015, sell off. What happened next

So Far we have picked the downlegs, are you ready for the main
course?

The Great Energy sell off - Brent 2014/15

Ferrexpo Plc (FXPO)
BEFORE

• After target, 40% left on
 first Inverse HVF in a new trend
 likely to over-perform.
• set up over-performance bands to manage.
Ferrexpo Plc (FXPO)
AFTER
40% was closed for a 1:9.48
risk to reward ratio
on over-performance

• Short call 2014, captured as it was breaking at 1020
• First inverse HVF in new trend, anticipated over-performance
• target 881 - strong overshoot just touched 800.
Rolls Royce (RR)
BEFORE

Rolls Royce (RR)
BEFORE

GPX - 70% Market Cap decimation
BEFORE
• Textbook inverse HVF
• Perfect set up with a windup within
• 70% devaluation performed well
• Entered short from 102 to exit at target of 28.75

Gulf Sands petroleum (GPX)
BEFORE
• Textbook inverse HVF
• Perfect set up with a windup within
• 70% devaluation performed well
• Entered short from 100 to exit at target of 27.75

A MegaCrash that will destroy Trillions
1. A near Global Central Bank Controlled monetary experiment that has gone
wrong.
2. The Central banking Cabal lead by the Fed, had limited options to them post the
DotCom Boom.
3. They have continued to play the same card to ever further extremes & the game
is up
4. We are on the verge of an imminent Crash, & the old painkillers don’t work
anymore if they ever did.

3 Reasons why.
1. MegaCrash 1 - The Banks Again
2. MegaCrash 2 – China, Cargo & Commodities
3. MegaCrash 3 – The Equity Indices

The Banks Again!
The Banks Again.
Was Anything much rectified post 2008

Bank Crisis MKII – Deutsche Bank BailIn,
Barclays Next

Mega Crash Part II
The Banking Crisis MK II
1. In September 2015 I made a YouTube Clip, Deutsche to Go
Bust ergo Bail in/out etc..
2. In fact we expect it to be the early break, of a more broader
MK II bank failure and bail ins/outs round
3. With a UK Bank next to follow Deutsche.. Barclays Bank
4. Prediction Mark Carney will be pressed to ‘confirm’ Barclays &
British Banking is Strong, within the next 3 months.

Mega Crash Main Stream Media Arrives Banking Part II

Bank Crisis MKII – Deutsche Bank Bail In/Out,

Deutsche Bank Bail In/Out currently 13.23 from 30 during our call

The Odd Derivative - Euro 54.7 Trillion X20 GDP, X5 EU GDP

Deutsche Bank - 5Year CDS

If this was a mining stock what would you think comes next?

Barclays gives up the 200 level

Barclays Breaks & gives up the 200 level

Standard Chartered, Dodged Sub Prime how is it doing?

Standard Chartered, Keep on keeping on

STAN Daily Inverse HVF
BEFORE
• called at the end of 2013 when an inverse HVF was forming
• called a short from 1550 to collapse to 1240

• made our target
• set up another Inverse HVF in 2014
STAN Daily Inverse HVF
After
 Trend Continuation + Pattern + Volatility Squeeze =
Traders Edge

Standard Chartered, We traded many of the set ups the next

Final Comment on Banks, Debt & Liquidity

Part 2 - China, Cargo & Commodities - 2011
How is it Looking In China, Commodities & Global
Trade?

The Baltic Dry Index

Maersk – ‘Its worse than 2008!’

Dr Copper the Industrial Metal of Building

We Traded it on an Inverted HVF

Contained initial fall, that got disorderly later

…and again on short timeframes 230 for run to 200

…Target, then Broadening & dip

AUD/NZD – Key Inflection points Monthly Chart

AUD/NZD – Key Inflection points Weekly Chart 2011

Brent Oil – [2011 Red] Weekly Chart

Part 3 - Indices - Apocalypse Now’ish
Equities & Indices
1. A suckers rally will be on the way, not exactly clear how long it
may last
2. Very soon to be followed by a worse than 2008 Equity Market
complete blood bath, particularly in the US
3. Guest appearance the USDJPY aka the ‘Fear Index’
4. Hear are my Technical Reasons…

The Indices
With the FED being the fulcrum of the Central
Banking Cartel.
Lets examine US Indices

Your 7 year feast from bottom of 2009 - Dow

Thought ‘Head & Shoulders’ was a shampoo?
- Dow

Seen this movie before? Meet Mr 2007 - 50%+ dive – Dow
14,200 to 6,500

Golden over extended S&P

Moar H&S’s

Its Started Already Russell 2000, a small company index

Super Extended Nasdaq has a ‘Fake out’ Rally in it first

Remember the ‘Fear index’ USDJPY

Fibo extended USDJPY weekly

Remember the ‘Fear index’ USDJPY weekly

Conclusions
1. Key Major European and UK Banks [US too] are selling off to exceedingly low
market capitalization levels. No smoke without fire!
2. The derivatives bombs they hold are HUGE and were never effectively dealt
with! Think of each bank as having an embedded LTCM hedge fund, only with
larger leverage.
3. Junk Debt market unravelling as an early indicator of distress for both
companies, Banks & Institutions holding that debt.

Conclusions
1. The Great Commodity and Energy & Industrial Metals Specific sell off, began
actually in 2011, and has been in a contained fall since, on weakening China
ability to hold things together under its own debt issues.
2. Shipping, Global Trade & Oil [economic activity measure] are all at extreme
lows. Can a supply Glut explain it all away, from Oil, Containers & falling world
trade?
3. Major Emerging markets & FX sell off - TRY, ZAR, MXN, RUB, BRL etc.., all with $
[USD] denominated debt, getting more expensive as they depreciate.

Predictions
1. Prediction Mark Carney will be pressed to ‘confirm’ Barclays & British
Banking is Strong, within the next 3 months.
2. Deutsche Bank will require recapitalisation, Bail in, along with Soc Gen,
Barclays, a number of Italian/Spanish/Other banks. Later in the US, Bank of
America, Morgan Stanley & CitiGroup will leadthe US wobble. Expect Bail
outs & in’s this time
3. Major US Indices will go into full fledged Bear territory, with falls of 25 -
60+% possible
4. Equity wise, time for Cash, Puts & Shorts + ‘button down the hatches’
5. Precious Metal Miners should be your only rare Long holdings

Predictions
1. The EURUSD will run through parity and 0.9575 levels, probably
on Sovereign Debt & Banking issues. Implying the 2nd wave crisis
will likely emerge there first

EURUSD Weekly Predictions

Predictions

Solutions
1. Keep High Cash levels
2. Spread deposit holdings across strongest banks
3. Have multiple Jurisdiction bank accounts – even Singapore/Uruguay
4. Be short the market generally, particularly US Markets
5. ‘button down the hatches’ on Capital Investment & Expenditure

Solutions
1. Personally Hold Physical Gold & Silver
2. Precious Metal Miners should be your only rare Long holdings
3. Learn To Trade! Especially Short right now.. It’s a little different from Buy &
Hold

Learn to Trade
1. If your existing situation is:
Successes, but ‘give back’ periods, Fits & Starts progress. Need
help, yet least prone to ask for it by nature – Individual
Creative
2. Time to Compress Time Continuum to Attaining a ‘Shift’

The Outakes & Conclusion
1. Solution - Support :
Become a specialist at 1 thing
Have a detailed complete strategy at all levels
Have a REAL edge
Low Emotion Trading
Follow my trades

Trade with a Probability Outcome with a RRR approach
Know your Bias’s, through external assessment
Join a Private Online Community of ‘like minded’ – A Tribe
Learn Patience, Selectivity & Efficiency
Attain Precision, Relaxed Execution & Positive Outcomes

Develop your ‘self awareness’
Leave Impulse based responses behind
Mentorship
Share Common Detailed Plan
Claim ‘the shift’ in your trading

Products
www.TheMarketSniper.com
Product Includes Cost / Value
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Trader Value Pack 5+ hours of content on DVD and CD £127.00
‘Over the Shoulder’ Trading Day Live Location Day with Francis £147.00
Link http://www.eventbrite.co.uk/o/the-market-sniper-francis-hunt-8007187689
HVF Draw Tool MT4 £457.00
12x Sunday Sessions 12x 1hr live webinar on prevalent market conditions and HVF theory + HVF
Draw Tool MT4
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Basecamp Membership (online) Trading & Coaching community: share ideas, winning trades with a supportive
community.
Joining Fee - £497.00
Mthly - £127.00
Trader Metamorphosis Program 6 month teaching and coaching program includes:
2 day theory weekend + 2x trading day + 2x One2One follow up + 12x Sunday
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©2015 – The Market Sniper

The End
Avoid Inertia, at key moments its time..
…To Take action

Contact Francis: Trader@TheMarketSniper.com
Products & Services
The Market Sniper Trader Value Pack
3 DVD set & Audio [5 hrs multi-topic]
Coming soon! Only £124.95
 FREE Webinar ‘Become part of the 9%’
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 TheMarketSniper.com/Products & Services

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Presentation for London investment week 19.02.2015 final edit