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Trading Power
Introduction to the Electricity Market
Iain Robertson, Generation Sales Manager
Agenda
2
SmartestEnergy
What is a PPA?
Traded markets
The role of Elexon
SmartestEnergy
The UK’s leading purchaser of power from independent
renewable generators and supplier of renewable electricity to
large commercial and industrial organisations
Established as generation aggregator since 2001
Diverse portfolio
3GW contracted installed capacity
600 sites (>13% of GB independent embedded renewables)
Includes all commercial-scale renewable technologies
Strong balance sheet, backed by an international corporation
Annual turnover £1.2bn and profit after tax £13m
Wholly-owned subsidiary of Marubeni Corporation
170+ employees across offices in London, Ipswich & Glasgow
3
What is a PPA?
4
What is a Power Purchase Agreement?
Route to market contract between:
Generator (the seller) and Purchaser of electricity (the buyer)
Defines the commercial terms, including:
Pricing structures
Key dates and schedule for delivery
Obligations and penalties
Payment terms
Risk and termination provisions
The principal agreement that defines the revenue and
credit quality of a generating project and is a key
element of project finance
Construction Risk ROC PPAs
For Project Finance, up to 15 years
FiT PPA
For Feed-in Tariff generators
CfD PPA
To dovetail with CfD contract
Short-term PPA
Merchant, typically up to 3 years
FlexiPPA
Typically for portfolios
Frameworks up to 7 years
“Linked Supply”
Direct PPAs with end-users
PPAs for renewable generators
Project revenue made up of 4 components
7
Wholesale Power Price
Fixed or flexible market
price
Embedded Benefits
Payments for distribution-
connected generators
Renewable Subsidy
e.g. ROC, FiT, CfD top-up
New Benefits
REGO value emerging
Capacity Market
Avoidance Benefit
New Benefits
Subsidy
Embedded Benefits
Power
Fundamentals: short-term
Supply & demand
Recession led to 6-8% demand reduction
Outages
Supply of primary energy
Price largely linked to gas price
Coal, oil
System capacity margins
Gas storage
European markets
Weather
UK Electricity Wholesale Market drivers
Sentiment: longer-term view
Economic climate
(Geo)political effects
Regulatory changes
Emissions legislation
New technologies, sources and uses
Power Price options
May be fixed for a forward period based on liquid
wholesale market at the time
typical forward liquidity 3-4 years
Prices can be fixed beyond the liquid curve if a
suitable hedge can be found in the market
Price may float by linking to a market index or via
agreed price setting mechanism
Floor price may be required for project finance
Forward annual price
10
11
N2EX day-ahead price
PPA - Imbalance
Purchaser takes Volume Risk on the forecast versus delivered generation output
An imbalance charge is made, based on:
Nature of the supply
Historic data (if any)
Prevailing level of wholesale prices
Prevailing wholesale price volatility
Time between contract agreement and delivery
Purchaser’s experience of similar generation
Purchaser’s portfolio
Expected nature of prices in the imbalance mechanism
12
What are Embedded Benefits?
Costs to end users accrue as
benefits to embedded generation
as it is treated as ‘negative demand’
in settlements
Vary according to location and
connection voltage
Distribution and Transmission losses
Generation Distribution Use of
System (GDUoS)
Balancing Services Use of System
(BSUoS) charges
Residual Cashflow Reallocation
Charge (RCRC)
Capacity Market Avoidance Benefit
Transmission Network Use of System
Charges (TNUoS)
Transmission Network Use of System
(TNUoS) – Triad benefit
14
2015/16 Final
(£/kW)
2016/17 Final
(£/kW)
2017/18 Current
Forecast
(£/kW)
1 Northern Scotland 23.47 40.97 29.73
2 Southern Scotland 26.79 40.24 30.45
3 Northern 32.62 42.93 38.16
4 North West 35.68 42.83 43.59
5 Yorkshire 36.29 42.49 44.13
6 N Wales & Mersey 35.62 42.68 44.50
7 East Midlands 39.07 44.72 47.01
8 Midlands 39.63 45.74 48.26
9 Eastern 41.18 46.54 49.02
10 South Wales 37.61 42.31 45.44
11 South East 43.74 49.20 51.83
12 London 46.24 51.87 54.37
13 Southern 44.79 50.08 52.83
14 South Western 43.98 48.58 51.43
Range 22.77 11.63 24.64
Transmission Network Use of System
Charges (TNUoS)
15
Embedded Benefits Review
1. Growing gap between the Use of System charges faced
by transmission connected and embedded generation
2. Regulatory developments:
a) Ofgem reviewing charging arrangements for
distribution-connected generators
b) CMA proposals also effectively remove the transmission
losses embedded benefit
3. NG widening review of “Commercial Charging
Arrangements”
ROC PPA
Power + ROCs + REGOs + Embedded Benefits
Monthly cashflow
Short-term market remains competitive
Long-term market typically 10-15 year deals
Fewer PPA providers
Power and ROC price volatility
17
ROC Values
ROC history Buy-Out Recycle
Nominal
Value
CP1 2002-03 £30.00 £16.52 £46.52
CP2 2003-04 £30.51 £22.99 £53.50
CP3 2004-05 £31.39 £14.17 £45.56
CP4 2005-06 £32.33 £10.19 £42.52
CP5 2006-07 £33.24 £16.04 £49.28
CP6 2007-08 £34.30 £18.65 £52.95
CP7 2008-09 £35.76 £18.61 £54.37
CP8 2009-10 £37.19 £15.15 £52.34
CP9 2010-11 £36.99 £14.35 £51.34
CP10 2011-12 £38.69 £3.58 £42.27
CP11 2012-13 £40.71 £3.59 £44.30
CP12 2013-14 £42.02 £0.70 £42.72
CP13 2014-15 £43.30 £0.35 £43.65
CP14 2015-16 £44.33 ? ?
CP15 2016-17 £44.77 ? ?
Targets
Values
ROC to become fixed price in 2027
Nominal ROC value forecast
19
FiT PPA
FiT includes published Generation Tariff plus
Export Tariff
Paid quarterly in arrears
Indexed annually
PPA is a market alternative to Export Tariff
Generators can opt-out
Export Tariff provides effective floor price
PPA includes Power + REGOs + Embedded
Benefits
Monthly cashflow
20
Small Scale FiT
21
22
How CfDs work
Low Carbon Contracts Company (LCCC) operate scheme
Difference payments from and to LCCC
Generators also need a PPA provider to sell their power (at
the Market Reference with discount)
Strike Price = Market Reference Price + Difference Payment
Key aspects of CfDPrice
Generator pays back
Strike price
Generator receives Difference Payment
Market reference price
- day-ahead for intermittent
- season ahead for baseload
23
PPA standard model is a discount to MRP
CfD v RO
24
ROC CfD
Support financing low-carbon generation
Drive down costs
Long-term price certainty
PPAs in a post-subsidy world
Market stabilisation CfD
Direct end-user PPAs
Generator agrees (long-term) price with Consumer
Consumer must also be creditworthy
Supplier provides PPA to Generator
Including Embedded Benefits
Power is sleeved through to Consumer’s supply
contract at agreed price
PPA provider may or may not also be Consumer’s Supplier
Certainty for both parties
Great opportunity to bring together willing parties
CSR and PR opportunities
Trading Power
Wholesale electricity is traded mostly OTC via
brokers
Voice and screen
Traders prefer interface
More flexible
Provides market intelligence
Encourages tighter prices
Highlights opportunities
Trades are anonymous, until after the trade
Other trading done via exchanges, on indices
UK trades up to 6 times consumption
Some other European markets more liquid
Wholesale market
Trading Parties
Generators
Suppliers
Banks/ hedge funds
Commodity traders/
speculators
Consumers
European utilities
28
Approximately 60 companies
trading UK power
c.100 trading gas
Traded Periods
Forward Market
Months, Quarters, Seasons, Annuals
Prompt Market
Day-ahead, week-ahead
Spot Market
Within-day
Up to gate closure
Can trade baseload or “shape” e.g. peak/ off-
peak
29
Forward annual price
30
Forward winter price
31
Forward summer price
32
Impact of Solar PV generation on intraday
wholesale price
33
The Role of Elexon
What does Elexon do?
Elexon monitor and validate payments made
between generators and suppliers (BSC Parties)
Compare how much electricity generators and
suppliers were contracted to produce or consume
with actual volumes
Calculate a price for the difference and transfer
funds accordingly
Elexon deliver the Balancing and Settlement Code
National Grid
Balance physical
generation and
demand
Elexon
Settlement imbalance
for generators and
suppliers
BSC Parties
Produce or use
energy
36
System Sell Price - Single Cash Out
Trading arrangements
Transmission Network
(Operated by National Grid)
Generation
Large
Consumption
Central volume allocation
Supplier volume allocation
Grid Supply Point
Distribution Network
GSP GroupSupply
Embedded
Generation
How does Imbalance occur
38
Generators Suppliers Non-physical traders
May produce
more or less energy
than they have
sold contractually
May consume
(through customer
demand) more or
less energy than
they have
purchased
contractually
No generation to
sell, or demand to
satisfy – buys from
generators and
trades to suppliers
for profit
Elexon Settle Imbalance
ELEXON’s systems capture the contracted volumes from generators/
suppliers to record what they said they would produce/consume
ELEXON’s systems and processes analyse the actual data to see who
generated/consumed what
National Grid (Transmission operator) provides pricing data on actions
taken to balance the system
Prices are calculated by Elexon as per National Grid data and applied
to difference between contracted volumes & actual data =
Imbalance.
Payment is made to and from their customers – the BSC parties
Thank you for watching….
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SmartestEnergy: Introduction to the Electricity Market

  • 1. Trading Power Introduction to the Electricity Market Iain Robertson, Generation Sales Manager
  • 2. Agenda 2 SmartestEnergy What is a PPA? Traded markets The role of Elexon
  • 3. SmartestEnergy The UK’s leading purchaser of power from independent renewable generators and supplier of renewable electricity to large commercial and industrial organisations Established as generation aggregator since 2001 Diverse portfolio 3GW contracted installed capacity 600 sites (>13% of GB independent embedded renewables) Includes all commercial-scale renewable technologies Strong balance sheet, backed by an international corporation Annual turnover £1.2bn and profit after tax £13m Wholly-owned subsidiary of Marubeni Corporation 170+ employees across offices in London, Ipswich & Glasgow 3
  • 4. What is a PPA? 4
  • 5. What is a Power Purchase Agreement? Route to market contract between: Generator (the seller) and Purchaser of electricity (the buyer) Defines the commercial terms, including: Pricing structures Key dates and schedule for delivery Obligations and penalties Payment terms Risk and termination provisions The principal agreement that defines the revenue and credit quality of a generating project and is a key element of project finance
  • 6. Construction Risk ROC PPAs For Project Finance, up to 15 years FiT PPA For Feed-in Tariff generators CfD PPA To dovetail with CfD contract Short-term PPA Merchant, typically up to 3 years FlexiPPA Typically for portfolios Frameworks up to 7 years “Linked Supply” Direct PPAs with end-users PPAs for renewable generators
  • 7. Project revenue made up of 4 components 7 Wholesale Power Price Fixed or flexible market price Embedded Benefits Payments for distribution- connected generators Renewable Subsidy e.g. ROC, FiT, CfD top-up New Benefits REGO value emerging Capacity Market Avoidance Benefit New Benefits Subsidy Embedded Benefits Power
  • 8. Fundamentals: short-term Supply & demand Recession led to 6-8% demand reduction Outages Supply of primary energy Price largely linked to gas price Coal, oil System capacity margins Gas storage European markets Weather UK Electricity Wholesale Market drivers Sentiment: longer-term view Economic climate (Geo)political effects Regulatory changes Emissions legislation New technologies, sources and uses
  • 9. Power Price options May be fixed for a forward period based on liquid wholesale market at the time typical forward liquidity 3-4 years Prices can be fixed beyond the liquid curve if a suitable hedge can be found in the market Price may float by linking to a market index or via agreed price setting mechanism Floor price may be required for project finance
  • 12. PPA - Imbalance Purchaser takes Volume Risk on the forecast versus delivered generation output An imbalance charge is made, based on: Nature of the supply Historic data (if any) Prevailing level of wholesale prices Prevailing wholesale price volatility Time between contract agreement and delivery Purchaser’s experience of similar generation Purchaser’s portfolio Expected nature of prices in the imbalance mechanism 12
  • 13. What are Embedded Benefits? Costs to end users accrue as benefits to embedded generation as it is treated as ‘negative demand’ in settlements Vary according to location and connection voltage Distribution and Transmission losses Generation Distribution Use of System (GDUoS) Balancing Services Use of System (BSUoS) charges Residual Cashflow Reallocation Charge (RCRC) Capacity Market Avoidance Benefit Transmission Network Use of System Charges (TNUoS)
  • 14. Transmission Network Use of System (TNUoS) – Triad benefit 14 2015/16 Final (£/kW) 2016/17 Final (£/kW) 2017/18 Current Forecast (£/kW) 1 Northern Scotland 23.47 40.97 29.73 2 Southern Scotland 26.79 40.24 30.45 3 Northern 32.62 42.93 38.16 4 North West 35.68 42.83 43.59 5 Yorkshire 36.29 42.49 44.13 6 N Wales & Mersey 35.62 42.68 44.50 7 East Midlands 39.07 44.72 47.01 8 Midlands 39.63 45.74 48.26 9 Eastern 41.18 46.54 49.02 10 South Wales 37.61 42.31 45.44 11 South East 43.74 49.20 51.83 12 London 46.24 51.87 54.37 13 Southern 44.79 50.08 52.83 14 South Western 43.98 48.58 51.43 Range 22.77 11.63 24.64
  • 15. Transmission Network Use of System Charges (TNUoS) 15
  • 16. Embedded Benefits Review 1. Growing gap between the Use of System charges faced by transmission connected and embedded generation 2. Regulatory developments: a) Ofgem reviewing charging arrangements for distribution-connected generators b) CMA proposals also effectively remove the transmission losses embedded benefit 3. NG widening review of “Commercial Charging Arrangements”
  • 17. ROC PPA Power + ROCs + REGOs + Embedded Benefits Monthly cashflow Short-term market remains competitive Long-term market typically 10-15 year deals Fewer PPA providers Power and ROC price volatility 17
  • 18. ROC Values ROC history Buy-Out Recycle Nominal Value CP1 2002-03 £30.00 £16.52 £46.52 CP2 2003-04 £30.51 £22.99 £53.50 CP3 2004-05 £31.39 £14.17 £45.56 CP4 2005-06 £32.33 £10.19 £42.52 CP5 2006-07 £33.24 £16.04 £49.28 CP6 2007-08 £34.30 £18.65 £52.95 CP7 2008-09 £35.76 £18.61 £54.37 CP8 2009-10 £37.19 £15.15 £52.34 CP9 2010-11 £36.99 £14.35 £51.34 CP10 2011-12 £38.69 £3.58 £42.27 CP11 2012-13 £40.71 £3.59 £44.30 CP12 2013-14 £42.02 £0.70 £42.72 CP13 2014-15 £43.30 £0.35 £43.65 CP14 2015-16 £44.33 ? ? CP15 2016-17 £44.77 ? ? Targets Values ROC to become fixed price in 2027
  • 19. Nominal ROC value forecast 19
  • 20. FiT PPA FiT includes published Generation Tariff plus Export Tariff Paid quarterly in arrears Indexed annually PPA is a market alternative to Export Tariff Generators can opt-out Export Tariff provides effective floor price PPA includes Power + REGOs + Embedded Benefits Monthly cashflow 20
  • 22. 22 How CfDs work Low Carbon Contracts Company (LCCC) operate scheme Difference payments from and to LCCC Generators also need a PPA provider to sell their power (at the Market Reference with discount) Strike Price = Market Reference Price + Difference Payment
  • 23. Key aspects of CfDPrice Generator pays back Strike price Generator receives Difference Payment Market reference price - day-ahead for intermittent - season ahead for baseload 23 PPA standard model is a discount to MRP
  • 24. CfD v RO 24 ROC CfD Support financing low-carbon generation Drive down costs Long-term price certainty
  • 25. PPAs in a post-subsidy world Market stabilisation CfD Direct end-user PPAs Generator agrees (long-term) price with Consumer Consumer must also be creditworthy Supplier provides PPA to Generator Including Embedded Benefits Power is sleeved through to Consumer’s supply contract at agreed price PPA provider may or may not also be Consumer’s Supplier Certainty for both parties Great opportunity to bring together willing parties CSR and PR opportunities
  • 27. Wholesale electricity is traded mostly OTC via brokers Voice and screen Traders prefer interface More flexible Provides market intelligence Encourages tighter prices Highlights opportunities Trades are anonymous, until after the trade Other trading done via exchanges, on indices UK trades up to 6 times consumption Some other European markets more liquid Wholesale market
  • 28. Trading Parties Generators Suppliers Banks/ hedge funds Commodity traders/ speculators Consumers European utilities 28 Approximately 60 companies trading UK power c.100 trading gas
  • 29. Traded Periods Forward Market Months, Quarters, Seasons, Annuals Prompt Market Day-ahead, week-ahead Spot Market Within-day Up to gate closure Can trade baseload or “shape” e.g. peak/ off- peak 29
  • 33. Impact of Solar PV generation on intraday wholesale price 33
  • 34. The Role of Elexon
  • 35. What does Elexon do? Elexon monitor and validate payments made between generators and suppliers (BSC Parties) Compare how much electricity generators and suppliers were contracted to produce or consume with actual volumes Calculate a price for the difference and transfer funds accordingly Elexon deliver the Balancing and Settlement Code National Grid Balance physical generation and demand Elexon Settlement imbalance for generators and suppliers BSC Parties Produce or use energy
  • 36. 36 System Sell Price - Single Cash Out
  • 37. Trading arrangements Transmission Network (Operated by National Grid) Generation Large Consumption Central volume allocation Supplier volume allocation Grid Supply Point Distribution Network GSP GroupSupply Embedded Generation
  • 38. How does Imbalance occur 38 Generators Suppliers Non-physical traders May produce more or less energy than they have sold contractually May consume (through customer demand) more or less energy than they have purchased contractually No generation to sell, or demand to satisfy – buys from generators and trades to suppliers for profit
  • 39. Elexon Settle Imbalance ELEXON’s systems capture the contracted volumes from generators/ suppliers to record what they said they would produce/consume ELEXON’s systems and processes analyse the actual data to see who generated/consumed what National Grid (Transmission operator) provides pricing data on actions taken to balance the system Prices are calculated by Elexon as per National Grid data and applied to difference between contracted volumes & actual data = Imbalance. Payment is made to and from their customers – the BSC parties
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